WI: President's Taft and Diaz assassinated in 1909?

Nofix

In 1909, Mexican President Porfirio Díaz and President of the United States William Howard Taft planned a summit, the first ever between an American and Mexican President, between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Mexico. Why there? Well there was a little bit of a controversy over who held that particular land, and they went there to hedge it out. They had literally thousands of troops and agents from various agencies there to protect Taft, and despite that, there was still one man who managed to approach both Presidents and was only apprehended a few feet away before firing on them.

What if, instead of being caught, the man shot and killed both Presidents? What would be the effect in Mexico with the Porfiriato now over? How would James Sherman handle the Presidency and the issues in the next few years? How would his death, likely earlier due to stress, complicate matters? How would the 1912 election play out? How would Taft's best friend TR react to him being killed?
 
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Admiral Halsey

Banned
This is before the Taft-TR split right? Anyone else think TR makes a run at the nomination like OTL's 1912 and this time get it?
 

Orville_third

Banned
I can safely say that this could likely lead to Frederick Wertham not being as prominent and perhaps no Comics Code. How in the world does this happen? Simple.
An assassination would mean the border area would still be a contentious issue, with tensions increasing. Troops would be patrolling the area on both sides. Thus, crime in the border area would likely be affected, and Cordova Island may be cut off from both sides.
With crime decreasing on Cordova Island, people are less likely to think of it. This means Jack Cole won't be able to use it in his famous story, "Murder, Morphine, and Me!" That story going unpublished means no "hypodermic to the eye" example in "Seduction of the Innocent", thus depriving Wertham of one of his most powerful images for regulating comics. (And others- the comic was reprinted by the NY State Legislature to justify regulating comics.) Thus, there may be no Comics Code.

I admit, it may be a stretch, but it is an idea.
 

Fubart Solman

Just a little thing to add: Assuming that James Sherman still dies in late 1912 (possibly earlier if he's more stressed by the Presidency), his Secretary of State would become president. Would Sherman have kept Philander C. Knox as his Secretary of State?
 

Paul V McNutt

Banned
TR is elected in 2012 he signs all the progressive legislation Wilson did. He loses in 1916 over the war issue. He makes it easier on his cousin when he seeks a third term.
1909 Wiilliam Howard Taft
1909- 1912 John S Sherman
1912 Philander Knox
1913-1917 Thedore Roosevelt
1917 - 1921 Some Democrat
1921 - Same as OTL
 

Nofix

OK I think we can agree that Sherman will die earlier, whoever his Sec of State is will not run, and Roosevelt might run in 1912, but how about everything else? How would Mexican culture, something I made sure to include, change with the earlier death of their dictator? How would Roosevelt, who was best friends with Taft, react to his death? They might have been drifting apart as soon as Taft was elected, but they were still good friends and his death would hit Roosevelt as another great tragedy.

Another thing to consider is how would the Presidential line of succession change with a Secretary of State actually taking office instead of them always being a hypothetical? Would there be an amendment on this? How would the Republican and Democratic parties develop without the Republican split of 1910? Yes there were underlying issues between the two camps, but with the main "conservative" Republican leader dead I'd think they, and thus the Democrats, would develop differently.
 

Emperor Julian

Sherman would be weaker than Taft in 1912, assuming he even runs, and if he dies before the convention, he'd be weaker still. Roosevelt will probably win the Republican nomination. As for the general, I think Roosevelt could still win, but his win would not be secure. I wonder of La Follette would run as a Progressive or not?
 

Nofix

Emperor Julian said:
Sherman would be weaker than Taft in 1912, assuming he even runs, and if he dies before the convention, he'd be weaker still. Roosevelt will probably win the Republican nomination. As for the general, I think Roosevelt could still win, but his win would not be secure. I wonder of La Follette would run as a Progressive or not?
Click to expand...

La Follette was definitely planning for an independent Progressive run after being stifled by the Taftite forces, but Roosevelt stole his thunder after a disastrous press conference (long story short La Follettes daughter was sick and the man was in no mood to talk to the press, who reported him as crazy). After everyone rallies around Roosevelt he'd probably still try, but get nowhere near the support or votes.
 

Nofix

Emperor Julian said:
Meanwhile, in Mexico, could the death of Diaz kick-start the Mexican revolution a year early or so?
Click to expand...

I was wondering about that too. Mexican history isn't my strong suit, so I don't know if the old bastard had a sort of second in command who would take power in his absence. If Mexico is lucky, maybe this would handicap the incumbent regime and give the liberal revolutionaries some breathing room and chance to consolidate their gains?
 

Nofix

Alright let's look at this from another angle, what would the short term effects be? What would the James Sherman, and lame duck Philander Knox, administration do? How would the disastrous midterms go this time around for the Republicans? Who leads, or rather heads, the conservative faction in the Republicans?
 

Emperor Julian

Nofix said:
Alright let's look at this from another angle, what would the short term effects be? What would the James Sherman, and lame duck Philander Knox, administration do? How would the disastrous midterms go this time around for the Republicans? Who leads, or rather heads, the conservative faction in the Republicans?
Click to expand...
Sherman would probably be fairly similar to Taft in regards to many of his policies, such as tariffs. However, he might not be the big rules enforcer and go after the trusts as aggressively as Taft, or maybe even less aggressively than Roosevelt. One bright spot for his administration among Republicans is that unlike Taft, he won't uselessly try to veto the Arizona state constitution based on their judicial recall, so the Republican Party will be more popular in Arizona to begin with.
 

Timmy811

Paul V McNutt said:
TR is elected in 2012 he signs all the progressive legislation Wilson did. He loses in 1916 over the war issue. He makes it easier on his cousin when he seeks a third term.
1909 Wiilliam Howard Taft
1909- 1912 John S Sherman
1912 Philander Knox
1913-1917 Thedore Roosevelt
1917 - 1921 Some Democrat
1921 - Same as OTL
Click to expand...

Eh...with TR in charge I think both Germany and Britain would be far more wary in their u-boat/bloackade policies. TR may not actually have intervened.
 
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