WI: Korean War at 1979

18-year long dictator Park Chung-hee died on October 26th 1979.
What if North Korea decided to attack South Korea around this period?(let's exclude the possibility of NK not invading for a moment; I am testing the military feasibilities.)
How would North Korea fare? How would South Korea? How would the US?
How long would this war be? How many casualties? What will be the outcome?
Note: OPLAN 5027-74 is already in place.

The the forward defense strategy in OPLAN 5027 was developed by Combined Forces Commander US General James F. Hollingsworth in 1973 [this discussion is based on "Winning in Korea Without Landmines," by Caleb Rossiter]. Prior to this time, OPLAN 5027 focused primarily on defeating a North Korean invasion. It envisioned the allies staging a 50-mile fighting retreat along the primary armored invasion route from the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and taking up strong positions [the "Hollingsworth Line"] south of the broad Han River where it bisects the South Korean capital of Seoul. There, allied forces would wait for US reinforcements before counter-attacking.

Concerned that the US withdrawal from Vietnam might lead the DPRK to question American commitment to defend South Korea, Hollingsworth altered the focus of OPLAN 50-27 to a forward-based offensive strategy. The goal was to convince North Korea that an invasion could bring an end to its regime. The new posture moved most allied artillery, tanks,and infantry forward toward the Military Control Zone (MCZ), which runs five miles south of the DMZ. General Hollingsworth announced plans to strike north after these forces defeated the invasion. He assigned two brigades of the US 2nd Division to seize the North Korean staging city of Kaesong just across the DMZ, and promised around-the-clock raids on the North by B-52 bombers and a "violent,short war " to capture the capital of Pyongyang.

It was unclear whether Hollingsworth's plans included the use of the US tactical nuclear weapons then on the Korean peninsula if the North Korean invasion forces overwhelmed the allies. At the time, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that without nuclear weapons,the new strategy could result in the initial loss of Seoul. In 1975 Gen. Hollingsworth stated that the US had a '9-day war plan', according to which North Korea would be defeated in a few days in a violent clash with 700-800 air sorties.
 
18-year long dictator Park Chung-hee died on October 26th 1979.
What if North Korea decided to attack South Korea around this period?(let's exclude the possibility of NK not invading for a moment; I am testing the military feasibilities.)
How would North Korea fare? How would South Korea? How would the US?
How long would this war be? How many casualties? What will be the outcome?
Note: OPLAN 5027-74 is already in place.

If the ROK are busy keeping the general populace in line, they'll have a very easy time. Until US reinforcements arrive. Then they're screwed.
 
The PLA was in a pretty sorry state in 1979, so even if they intervened, they might well have been defeated.

How were Soviet-DPRK relations in 1979?

The Soviet union can help the DPRK depending on how crucial they view NK for their plan in a Sino-Soviet conflict. DPRK desperately wants Soviet help.
Remember, 1979 was also when the Soviets entered the war in Afghanistan.
This probably explains the OTL lack of war in Korea during this time: neither the USSR nor China was willing to support NK's endeavours.
It is still possible, however, that Kim Il-sung takes the wrong message from Soviet ambassador and goes on with his plan for invasion.

(another wrecking factor? they dont have oil. This is the height of the 1979 oil crisis.)
 
Would the U.S. population accept another war? Vietnam is still fresh, and the US is in bad shape. I think if the US suffers early defeats, it will have to pull out. So how long can the DPRK hold out before the US rage quits. I think the last thing any US President want to be credited with starting Vietnam II:The Kim's Strike Back.

And you thought OTL Jimmy Carter was hated.
 
Would the U.S. population accept another war? Vietnam is still fresh, and the US is in bad shape. I think if the US suffers early defeats, it will have to pull out. So how long can the DPRK hold out before the US rage quits. I think the last thing any US President want to be credited with starting Vietnam II:The Kim's Strike Back.

And you thought OTL Jimmy Carter was hated.

On the other hand, assuming that Jimmy Carter's election doesn't get butterflied and the war is going well, he may get a second term.
 
Would the U.S. population accept another war? Vietnam is still fresh, and the US is in bad shape. I think if the US suffers early defeats, it will have to pull out. So how long can the DPRK hold out before the US rage quits. I think the last thing any US President want to be credited with starting Vietnam II:The Kim's Strike Back.

And you thought OTL Jimmy Carter was hated.

Well, the general who made OPLAN 5027-74 did say that it would take them 9 days to defeat NK. This might actually help Carter, but I doubt that would make him love SK more.
 
Would the U.S. population accept another war? Vietnam is still fresh, and the US is in bad shape. I think if the US suffers early defeats, it will have to pull out. So how long can the DPRK hold out before the US rage quits. I think the last thing any US President want to be credited with starting Vietnam II:The Kim's Strike Back.

And you thought OTL Jimmy Carter was hated.

Big difference between sending troops to intervene in a civil war and being attacked.

What does the USSR do here? The Chinese wont like NK attacking in 1979 while they're involved with Vietnam and warming up to the US. So presumably NK does this with Moscow's backing.

Afghanistan and NK in one year. Any president who backs down will looke like an appeaser. US isnt rage quitting.
 

Redhand

Banned
The US would probably have an easy time of defeating the invasion once they send reinforcements over. The 2nd Infantry division probably gets annihilated, leading to public support for military action. The fight in the air would not at all be close. NK would have folded in 1950 if not for China and I see no reason why China would intervene if they are at odds with the Soviets, Vietnam, an warming to the US.
 

RousseauX

Donor
18-year long dictator Park Chung-hee died on October 26th 1979.
What if North Korea decided to attack South Korea around this period?(let's exclude the possibility of NK not invading for a moment; I am testing the military feasibilities.)
How would North Korea fare? How would South Korea? How would the US?
How long would this war be? How many casualties? What will be the outcome?
Note: OPLAN 5027-74 is already in place.

Did you get this idea from wargame:red dragon?
 
Would the U.S. population accept another war? Vietnam is still fresh, and the US is in bad shape. I think if the US suffers early defeats, it will have to pull out. So how long can the DPRK hold out before the US rage quits. I think the last thing any US President want to be credited with starting Vietnam II:The Kim's Strike Back.
Maybe, but probably not, the DPRK didn't fight the same way the VC did, they tended to fight more conventionally, which would give the US the advantage.
 
Would the U.S. population accept another war? Vietnam is still fresh, and the US is in bad shape. I think if the US suffers early defeats, it will have to pull out. So how long can the DPRK hold out before the US rage quits. I think the last thing any US President want to be credited with starting Vietnam II:The Kim's Strike Back.

And you thought OTL Jimmy Carter was hated.
you forget in 1980 the US would election Reagan in large part based on his combative foreign policy stands, Americans were sick of feeling "weak" or "being pushed around" etc I don't think the North Korean army is the push over easy win they wanted and "needed" but I think its one they'd (at lest the rising Reagan voters) would want to fight, the anti-war generation grew up, got jobs and homes and stopped caring once they couldn't be drafted, I mean in 1980 Carter revived draft registration and most of the noise was that it was a weak reaction to the Soviet's attack on Afghanistan, Reagan in 1982 would extend it, indefinitely, so to this day we all have to, any ways I think the draft would come back it only went out in 1973, and draft numbers where issued in 1974 and 1975 just in case it would extended or reinstated and with OTL's 1980 draft registration reinstatement I see it coming back, priority numbers for all men born 1960 if they start in 1979
 
Maybe, but probably not, the DPRK didn't fight the same way the VC did, they tended to fight more conventionally, which would give the US the advantage.

They did extensively employ construction of underground tunnel networks after the Vietnam War; it was after the Gulf war when NK fully used backup systems(so that NK wouldn't be annihilated when the army is destroyed at the front, and they could harass US/ROK armies when they invaded further north.)
 
if North Korea attacked first, they would likely have to attack Untied States forces on the peninsular. Even if they didn't the attack on a US ally would probably be seen as unprovoked so one can easily imagine a rave of US patriotism in support for the war, similar to what happened in 1979 following the taking of the hostages in Iran.
 
if North Korea attacked first, they would likely have to attack Untied States forces on the peninsular. Even if they didn't the attack on a US ally would probably be seen as unprovoked so one can easily imagine a rave of US patriotism in support for the war, similar to what happened in 1979 following the taking of the hostages in Iran.

The US forces in Korea by 1979 were in the process of moving to the rear; the majority of forces fighting NK would be ROK forces.
I also wonder about the "shortness" of this war- is it actually possible that the US air force simply obliterate everything above the DMZ and south korean forces just move north? Is it actually possible that the war will be that short- 9 days?
 

ThePest179

Banned
The US forces in Korea by 1979 were in the process of moving to the rear; the majority of forces fighting NK would be ROK forces.
I also wonder about the "shortness" of this war- is it actually possible that the US air force simply obliterate everything above the DMZ and south korean forces just move north? Is it actually possible that the war will be that short- 9 days?

I don't think it would be that short. At least a month or two.
 
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