Italy, a Destiny Fulfilled

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Franciscus Caesar

Yes, they very much do, good summation of ideas. Thank you both!

It is a pleasure. Expanding on my previous post, other measures that Bismark and diCastagna are going to take include: institution of civil marriage and public education, expulsion of Papal Catholic (PC for short) religious orders (Jesuits especially), seizure of PC clergy and religious orders assets, stopping state subsidies to the clergy, state control of clergy activities (with criminal persecution of clergy that discussed politics from the pulpit) and supervision of clergy education and appointment, creation of secular courts for cases involving the clergy, banning PC religious teachers from oublic schools.

Of course, as the grassroots Old Catholic-"national" movement takes root and eventually the upper hand among the clergy and the laity, they shall be extempt from all those penalties and restrictions and shall enjoy strong state support and subsidy, as shall do the Protestant Churches (e.g. religious marriage and instruction by them shall be sanctioned by the state, they shall get generous state subsidies and shall be free to preach). As the OC movement spreads, we can expect eventual mass expulsion of PC clergy, not just the religious orders.

In the medium-long term (but this is beyond the scope of the next updates, it shall take place over several years), the OC CHurch shall gradually but surely refom its theology and organization to become much more counciliar, national-autonomous, episcopal-synodal, liberal, and socially-politically progressive, becoming indistinguishable from, and in full communion with, Anglicanism.

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by MNPundit

Why would the US care about it enough to give allegiance to any one side? You're right that sympathies would lie that way, but it's not like the US is much of an international player at this time. They are not going to care much what is going on all the way over in Europe.

You are right, but American (and British) public opinion shall very strongly favor Protestant-like Old Catholics over reactionary-theocratic "Popism", and this shall influence the government. No direct government interference in domestic US religious matters of course, because of the First Amendment, and no direct intervention in European matters either, because of isolationism, but we can expect diplomatic and political support by the Administration and Congress for the I-G side and grassroots social ostracism of Popists at home. And we can expect the same basic reaction in Britain. Basically, WASP public opinion shall bring popcorn and cheer for the I-G side and the OC.

[LordKalvan]

Franciscus,
I would suggest that you slightly revise the chronology of the I-G-F war and associated events. You should also give a significant role to Garibaldi: given that he was born in Nice, the command of an army corp in the Provencal campaign looks appropriate.

I'd also commend Eurofed quotation of the Hymn to Satan and of Carducci as the poet of the resurgent Italy. Have some suggestions for this topic too.

Where I don't suggest changes, it means that I am in agreement with the chronology.

• 6th January 1868: during the celebrations of the end of Christmas, pope Pius IX calls for a great council of the catholic church. The council will be held in Avignon, where the pope now resides after fleeing Rome, and will start on 1 March 1868.
• January-February 1868: general unrest in Southern Italy, numerous priests and bishops refuse to cooperate with Italian authorities, and oppose passive resistence.
• 7 to 15 February 1868: a string of bombings in Calabria and Campania. The most conspicuous one results in the derailment of a train from Naples to Salerno, with significant numbers of victims among the civilians.
• 17 February: Di Castagna reinstates martial law in Calabria and Campania, and reports to Parliament that the unrest in the south has been engineered by foreign agents of a hostile power, backed by the minions of the exiled pope.
• 28 February 1868: Italian army contingents sweep the Calabrian mountains, searching for insurgents. French newspapers report many atrocities.
• 1 March 1868: the council of the church is inaugurated with a solemn Te Deum in the cathedral of Avignon. The pope thunders against godless rulers who have profanated the city of Rome, sanctified for more than 18 centuries by the blood of countless martyrs.
• 2 March 1868: the pope blesses the flags of French regiments marching toward the Italian border, and calls them "true sons of the church, crusaders ready to avenge the injury to the church and to God Himself. News of this are reported on all European newspapers: most of the comments are negative. The Times in London comments: "Is the pope calling for a new Albigensian crusade? It is strange to witness such events in a century dedicated to the progress of science and humanity"
• 15 March 1868: the doctrine of papal infallibility is promulgated. While the proceeds of the council are secret, there are rumors of significant opposition to this doctrine.
• 15 to 31 March 1868: a significant number of delegates has been leaving the council. None of them has been willing to make statements to the press, just mentioning "the urgent calls of pastoral care"
• a bomb is thrown in Crotone against the carriage of the military governor of Calabria, killing him and a number of bystanders. The terrorists are apprehended while trying to flee: it is discovered that all of them are Jesuits in disguise.
• 20 March 1868: the pope calls on all catholics to participate in processions and invoke the blessing of the Holy Ghost on the council of the church. The processions shall be hold on 7 April, Palm Sunday.
• 2 April 1868: the Italian government asks for an oath of fealty from all bishops. Recalcitrant bishops will be placed under house arrests.
• 7 April 1868: thousands of pilgrims gather to ascend the Holy Mountain of St. Patrick, answering the appeal of the pope. Notwithstanding the strong presence of Irish Constabulary and British troops, the pilgrimage soon degenerates into a political rally against British oppression and Protestant Ascendancy. A riot ensues, leaving 30 deads among the pilgrims (they shall be known henceforth as the Martyrs of Palm Sunday).

To be continued

[Franciscus Caesar]

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

Franciscus,
I would suggest that you slightly revise the chronology of the I-G-F war and associated events. You should also give a significant role to Garibaldi: given that he was born in Nice, the command of an army corp in the Provencal campaign looks appropriate.

I'd also commend Eurofed quotation of the Hymn to Satan and of Carducci as the poet of the resurgent Italy. Have some suggestions for this topic too.

Where I don't suggest changes, it means that I am in agreement with the chronology.

• 6th January 1868: during the celebrations of the end of Christmas, pope Pius IX calls for a great council of the catholic church. The council will be held in Avignon, where the pope now resides after fleeing Rome, and will start on 1 March 1868.
• January-February 1868: general unrest in Southern Italy, numerous priests and bishops refuse to cooperate with Italian authorities, and oppose passive resistence.
• 7 to 15 February 1868: a string of bombings in Calabria and Campania. The most conspicuous one results in the derailment of a train from Naples to Salerno, with significant numbers of victims among the civilians.
• 17 February: Di Castagna reinstates martial law in Calabria and Campania, and reports to Parliament that the unrest in the south has been engineered by foreign agents of a hostile power, backed by the minions of the exiled pope.
• 28 February 1868: Italian army contingents sweep the Calabrian mountains, searching for insurgents. French newspapers report many atrocities.
• 1 March 1868: the council of the church is inaugurated with a solemn Te Deum in the cathedral of Avignon. The pope thunders against godless rulers who have profanated the city of Rome, sanctified for more than 18 centuries by the blood of countless martyrs.
• 2 March 1868: the pope blesses the flags of French regiments marching toward the Italian border, and calls them "true sons of the church, crusaders ready to avenge the injury to the church and to God Himself. News of this are reported on all European newspapers: most of the comments are negative. The Times in London comments: "Is the pope calling for a new Albigensian crusade? It is strange to witness such events in a century dedicated to the progress of science and humanity"
• 15 March 1868: the doctrine of papal infallibility is promulgated. While the proceeds of the council are secret, there are rumors of significant opposition to this doctrine.
• 15 to 31 March 1868: a significant number of delegates has been leaving the council. None of them has been willing to make statements to the press, just mentioning "the urgent calls of pastoral care"
• a bomb is thrown in Crotone against the carriage of the military governor of Calabria, killing him and a number of bystanders. The terrorists are apprehended while trying to flee: it is discovered that all of them are Jesuits in disguise.
• 20 March 1868: the pope calls on all catholics to participate in processions and invoke the blessing of the Holy Ghost on the council of the church. The processions shall be hold on 7 April, Palm Sunday.
• 2 April 1868: the Italian government asks for an oath of fealty from all bishops. Recalcitrant bishops will be placed under house arrests.
• 7 April 1868: thousands of pilgrims gather to ascend the Holy Mountain of St. Patrick, answering the appeal of the pope. Notwithstanding the strong presence of Irish Constabulary and British troops, the pilgrimage soon degenerates into a political rally against British oppression and Protestant Ascendancy. A riot ensues, leaving 30 deads among the pilgrims (they shall be known henceforth as the Martyrs of Palm Sunday).

To be continued

Yes! I love it (anyone who says they don't like being spoon fed is a liar!)! Thank you for the ready-to-post's LK, can't wait for more! So, Parte Otto has now been edited from beginning to late April. Garibaldi is being written in ([SHAME]I completely forgot about him[/SHAME])

[LordKalvan]

April 7th: Warsaw: the catholic processions of Palm Sunday erupts into anti-Prussian demonstrations. Prussian cavalry charges the demonstrants, leaving many dead and wounded.

April 7th: Italy: processions are organised in the major cities of northern and central Italy to answer the papal appeal (no procession has been authorised in the southern regions under martial law). Counter-manifestations are organised by liberals and nationalists, to condemn "the traitorous Pius, whose hands dripping with the blood of the patriots have blessed the flags of the enemies of Italy". Many incidents are reported, with a few dead and wounded.

April 7th:: Palm Sunday processions are organised in the Austrian empire too. Incidents are reported only in Prague and Kracow (in the latter city, the procession becomes quickly a Polish independence rally).

April 10th: the pope holds a solemn mass in Avignon, for the souls of the dead in the Palm Sunday riots. They are proclaimed "martyrs of the faith".

April 10th: with the Regia Marina being a no show at Nice, Garibaldi decides to attack with his army corp. As expected, Nice has become a fortress with a large French force in it. Garibaldi's attack is repelled after bloody street fighting at the perifery of Nice, and he is wounded.

April 10th:The Swiss ambassador in Florence is handed over a diplomatic note, informing the Swiss Confederation that the Government of Italy has denounced the 1861 agreement for the neutraization of Savoy, and intends to attack French Savoy on 25th April. A separate diplomatic note offers Switzerland a joint Italo-German guarantee of Swiss neutrality against any attack.

May 4th: Federal Chancellor Otto von Bismarck reports to the Bundesrat of the North German Confederation. After describing the great victory at Sedan which culminated in the surrender of the French emperor and his army, and praising the heroism and the spirit of sacrifice of the German armies, he moves to the discuss the riots of Palm Sunday and the role of the pope and catholic powers in instigating unrest:

"The question we currently deal with, in my opinion, is falsely described, and the perspective by which we look at it, is a wrong one, if one regards it as a confessional one. It is mainly a political one; it is not about the struggle, as our Catholic fellow citizens are told, of a Protestant dynasty against the Catholic church, it is not a struggle between believers and unbelievers, it is the age-old struggle between kingship and priesthood, a power struggle as old as mankind, older than the appearance on earth of our saviour, the power struggle Agamemnon fought with his seers in Aulis, the power struggle which shaped the German history in the Middle Ages, leading to the desintegration of the German Empire, in the form of the conflict between emperors and popes, and which resulted in the execution of the last descendant of the illustrious Swabian dynasty by the axe of a French conqueror, a French conqueror alied with the pope.

Once again a French monarch has conspired with the pope to undermine the natural aspirations of the German people, but this time they shall not prevail: our armies are triumphant in Northern france and our Italian ally is overcoming the French armies in Provence. The last French emperor has surrendered his word to general von Moltke and the pope shall soon learn that he cannot impose his delusions over the will of a free people.

This power struggle is subject to the same conditions as any other struggle; it is a misinterpretation of the question with the object to impress people without judgment, if it is described as a matter of oppression of the church. It is a matter of defense of the state, of a delimitation, insofar priesthood and insofar royal rule shall reach, this delimitation has to be found in a way that the state can continue to exist. Because in this world the state claims both authority and priority." [1]

May 4th: Prime Minister Di Castagna reports to the Italian Parliament in joint session. The war situation is good, Italian armies are deeply ito French territory, and emperon Napoleon III has been defeated at Sedan and has surrendered. Victory will still require sacrifices and dedication, but Italy will achieve its triumph. In a more sombre tone, Di Castagna reviews the internal situation: there is still unrest in the south, even if the largest concentrations of insurgents have been broken and the enemy's spy rings have been identified and neutralised. The riots of Palm Sunday have proven that the Italian people is standing besides their kingand goernment, and will not fall for the lies of a deluded pope. The struggle is not yet over, though, he warns: "The Italian South more than one time became of forge of ideas and progress, but the church has always conspired with foreign monarchs to keep our people under the joke of obscurantism and ignorance, fighting against science, knowledge and progress. Once again the people of southern Italy have risen, and broken their chains: if we fail them, history will condemn us to a hell deepest than the one threathened by the pope.
Pius IX's election gave hope to the patriots fighting for the freedom of Italy, and he blessed the struggles of the people in 1848. Soon after, though, he reneged his vows, and rather than a shephers he choose to be an executioner, dipping his hands in the blood of the patriots. 6 months ago the people of Rome insurged again, and this time Italy was not deaf to their appeal. Now the pope that fled Rome and the wrath of a free people like a thief in the night dares to treathen us, hiding behind the bayonets of his French master. Let us answer him without hate in the immortal words of the new bard of the resurgent and triumphant Italy:

Our way is strewn with graves, but like an altar
Each grave is decked with flowers.
The memory of the dead burns: shall we falter
In this great work of ours?
Nay, say us all join hands, the sage, the bard,
Warrior and artisan:
Easy is now that which was once so hard:
We mined the Vatican. [2]

Let the old man in Avignon hear these words, and let us hope that his heart is not too hardened by hate and arrogance. Let the pope atone for his mistakes, so that he may take again his place in Rome. This is the wish of the people of Italy and his king, this was the greatest desire of my immortal predecessor, Count Camillo Benso of Cavour: a Free Church in a Free State.

But at the same time let him also heed the warning of a free and proud Italy.
Once again I will use the words of our bard, who from afar saw the roads untaken and sang of them to us:

But other the phantoms
When finer the age,
At times he awakens
From Livy's full page,

When tribunes and consuls
And vast crowds that thrill
With ardour and passion
That sleepless cell fill,

He to the Capitol,
Thy land to set free
Of Italic pride dreaming,
O monk, urges thee.

And you, Huss and Wycliffe,
No fury of flames
Could stifle your voices'
Prophetic acclaims.

Send forth on the breezes
Your watch-cry sublime
"A new age is dawning,
Fulfilled is the time!" [3]

May 5: The Times in London reports with great emphasis about the speeches given in Berlin and Florence, remarking on the cohesion of the Italo-Prussian alliance and at the same time praising the "measured answer of two great modern states to the crusade-preaching pope exiled in Avignon". Reports from France underline the parlous state of French armies and the weakness of the coalition government formed after the surrender of Napoleon III. A correspondent from Vienna reports that the mobilization of the Austrian army, which was started at the end of April, is slowing down. Other reports from Ireland give accounts of civil disobedience and unrest in the eastern part of the island.

To be continued

[1] IOTL Bismarck made this speech (except for the sentence in Italics, which is mine) in the Prussian House of Lords on 10 March 1873, on the subject of Kulturkampf.

[2] Verses taken from Ode to Rome, written by Carducci in OTL 1868. IOTL, these verses were quite bitter since they came after the defeat of Garibaldi at Mentana, and what Carducci perceived as a betrayal of the Italian government. ITTL they sound much more like a somber praise of a job well done.

[3] Verses taken from Hymn to Satan, written by Carducci in 1863. IOTL the Hymn was considered quite scandalous, and no plitician would have dared to quote it. Again TTL is a horse a very different color, and the Hymn to Satan becomes mainstream

For those interested in Carducci's poems in a more than decent English translation:
Carducci By Geoffrey Langdale Bickersteth
A Selection from the Poems of Giosue Carducci By Giosu Carducci

Search via Google Books

[LordKalvan]

Ok, let's see if I can finish ths one:

May 10th, Garibaldi, recovered from his wounds at Nice, marches an Italian army on Toulon. After many victories the Italians have become overconfident, and their supply lines are overextended. Toulon is ready for them. The Italians are surprised by an outstandingly strong French resistance. The French shell the Italians with percussion fused shells causing many casualties in the unsuspecting Italian ranks. However Garibaldi manages to quell the ensuing panic and repels a direct bayonet charge by French infantry. The lines stabilizes about 40 km from Toulon.

May 10th, the pope issues a condemnation of the prelates that have left the council, even if no specific punitive measures are taken against them

May 25th, the French decide to go on a naval offensive against the Italians: they are acutely aware that the coal stocks are depleted and it's very difficult to receive supplies from Northern France. A squadron of the Marine Imperial leaves Toulon to bombard Genoa. They are met by the Regia Marina, steaming from La Spezia, and a chaotic battle ensues. Very good performance of L'Affondatore, the Italian ram-ship which sinks two French first class frigates, Savoie and Surveillante. The Re d'Italia is damaged, and has to be towed to Genoa for repairs. The Italian victory is not devastating in tactical terms, and the Regia Marina does not pursue the retreating French ships. In terms of morale,the outcome of the battle is superb. From now on the French navy will not again take the initiative in the war.

May 25th, reinforced by a second army corps, Garibaldi renews the push toward Toulon. After three days of bitter fighting, the French troops are under siege in Toulon.

May 25th to June 30th, the regional armies raised by the new French government of National Defence fight hard to contest te Prussian threathened encircleent of Paris. Consisting mostly of raw recruits and lacking officers, their elan cannot keep the Prussians from advancing.

June 10th,Toulon surrenders. Rther than investing Marseille, the Italian army wheel north, direction Grenoble.

June 20th, Italian and French forces meet at Chambery. The Italians, coming under heavy French artillery fire, withdraw from the village and await an assault. The French assault proves unsuccessful and they retreat back to the village. After an hours pause, the opposing forces meet again with the Italians waiting until the last possible chance to fire due to low ammunition counts. The Italians are successful and the French retreat back again. The French try one last push under the cover of night but the Italians, on their last leg, manage to repulse the attack. The French force, feeling defeated and having suffered massive casualties in three failed assaults, abandon their effort to drive away the Italians and surrender. Chambery falls to Italy

June 25 to July 15: the German armies slowly destroy the Army of the Loire and the Army of the North.

July 2nd : the Italians invest Grenoble from north and south.

July 3rd : Grenoble capitulates. An Italian army moves toward Lyon.
July 3rd : A squadron of Italian navy shells Oran in eastern Algeria, after having escorted troopships to a landing near the city. Oran is invested from land the day after.

July 10th : Oran surrenders to an Italian expedition force

July 15th : the last French army in the field is forced into the mountains by gen. von Maunteuffel. Gen. Bourbaki enter Swiss territory and is dsarmed and interned.

July 17th : the government of National Defence sus for peace. An armistice is agreed, starting at dawn on July 18th. Gambetta refuses to accept the armistice, and launches an attack on German troops near Orleans: he's defeated, captured and court-martialled for violation of war laws. Gambetta will be shot by a firing squad on July 25th, and will become a myth of French revanchisme.

July 21th : Bismarck orchestrates the "spontaneous" proclamation of the new Reich at Versailles. German troops march under the Arc de Triomphe on July 22nd, before leaving Paris. The German troops are joined for the victory parade by two regiments of bersaglieri and two regiments of cavalry.

July 25th : Peace negotiations start in Muhlose, Alsace.

[Eurofed]

Excellent work, folks.

[Franciscus Caesar]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Excellent work, folks.

Haha, I'd say! LordKalvan, superb additions! They have been added in and Parte Otto is MASSIVE! I guess Italy's going after Algeria after all. This is really turning into a wank now!!

Also, yes, thank you Eurofed for the poetic suggestions!

[Jimbrock]

Nice collaborative TL you're cooking up, guys.

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Franciscus Caesar

Also, yes, thank you Eurofed for the poetic suggestions!

Never mind. By the way, remaining on the artistic side, I think that a work which is going to become very popular and be widely reproduced and imitated these years, north and south of the Alps, as a symbol of the newfound Italo-German BFF, is Friederich Overbeck's masterpiece painting "Italia and Germania". Even if late imitators are likely to make a more... martial reinterpretation of the two girls. I would not rule out Berlin and Rome exchanging paired Nike-like statues.

As it concerns the war-expenses economic troubles of Italy, I assume they ought not to be too serious. The F-G-I war is winding down, even if they shall have to keep occupation troops in France for a while, and the Commune is about to explode, delaying the peace treaty by several months, IOTL the repression was almost entirely managed by French troops (although Bismarck and di Castagna shall likely have to release French PoWs to man the force of the provisional government), and the new territories may require some expenses, but they were a Savoy possession up to eight years aog, so not as substantial as for ex-Austrian ones. I think that di Castagna, at the worst, could redress the budget with a mild tax increase (palatable after such successes) and/or getting a loan at favorable conditions from Berlin (or London). After Italy pulled its own weight so much, I think Bismarck is more than willing to subsidize a very valuable ally.

Now is the time for German and Italian diplomats to get greedy at the peace table. Alsace, Lorraine (up to the Maas), Luxemburg, Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Eastern Algeria, Riviera (up to Hyeres), sizable reparations (even if they shall not be an immediate financial redress for Italy, given the sorry state of France after the war and the Commune), the French shares of the Suez Company.

The harsh peace deal shall be the final trigger for the Commune, which shall sweep Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles, and be slowly and painfully quelled over several months. The horror of the insurrection shall pave the way for the monarchical restoration masterminded by the Popists (as well as the Carlist takeover in Spain). In the meanwhile, the Schism takes full wing in Western and Central Europe...

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Never mind. By the way, remaining on the artistic side, I think that a work which is going to become very popular and be widely reproduced and imitated these years, north and south of the Alps, as a symbol of the newfound Italo-German BFF, is Friederich Overbeck's masterpiece painting "Italia and Germania". Even if late imitators are likely to make a more... martial reinterpretation of the two girls. I would not rule out Berlin and Rome exchanging paired Nike-like statues.

What I would anticipate is the second part of the diptych: Italia and Germania as shield maidens guarding each other back. A 19th century version of the Pallas Athena dichotomy in Ancient Greece
Remaining on the artistic side, Carducci has been officially promoted to the position of poet laureate of the new empire. Expect more in the incoming years, starting with the pageant of 1869 for Roma Capitale and the marriage of the crown prince. I would also guess that a new opera will be commissioned for that occasion. Verdi, I would say. And, taking a leaf from Bismarck's speech I quoted above, the subject might be the short life and death of the last Hohenstaufen Conrad the Younger, innocent victim to the intrigues of a French king and a pope.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

As it concerns the war-expenses economic troubles of Italy, I assume they ought not to be too serious. The F-G-I war is winding down, even if they shall have to keep occupation troops in France for a while, and the Commune is about to explode, delaying the peace treaty by several months, IOTL the repression was almost entirely managed by French troops (although Bismarck and di Castagna shall likely have to release French PoWs to man the force of the provisional government), and the new territories may require some expenses, but they were a Savoy possession up to eight years aog, so not as substantial as for ex-Austrian ones. I think that di Castagna, at the worst, could redress the budget with a mild tax increase (palatable after such successes) and/or getting a loan at favorable conditions from Berlin (or London). After Italy pulled its own weight so much, I think Bismarck is more than willing to subsidize a very valuable ally.

All nice, but if Italy has to be able to stand tall the budget and the debts must be kept under control. Some new taxes are necessary.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Now is the time for German and Italian diplomats to get greedy at the peace table. Alsace, Lorraine (up to the Maas), Luxemburg, Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Eastern Algeria, Riviera (up to Hyeres), sizable reparations (even if they shall not be an immediate financial redress for Italy, given the sorry state of France after the war and the Commune), the French shares of the Suez Company.

France managed topay IOTL, so I suppose they will manage ITTL too. Even factoring in the ravages of the war, France is still a very rich country. There will be a significant change in the next decades or so: Italians will not be available as migrants ITTL, so France will have to look elsewhere for its workforce: Spaniards, Polish and Irish I guess.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

The harsh peace deal shall be the final trigger for the Commune, which shall sweep Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles, and be slowly and painfully quelled over several months. The horror of the insurrection shall pave the way for the monarchical restoration masterminded by the Popists (as well as the Carlist takeover in Spain). In the meanwhile, the Schism takes full wing in Western and Central Europe...

Archbishop Guidi of Bologna in Italy and theologian Johann von Donninger in Germany will be the leaders of the schism. IOTL, von Donninger was defrocked for his opposition to papal infallibility. Guidi was more diplomatic, but leftthe council not to cast a vote (and even IOTL 1 in 5 of the attending prelates did the same. ITTL I would guess at least 1 in 3). Apparently arch-bishop Guidi went back to Pius IX after the council ended, to mend the fences but also to put once again forward his contention that papal infallibility represented a complete breach with Catholic tradition. He was rebuked by the pope with the famous quip: "Tradition? I am tradition"

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

What I would anticipate is the second part of the diptych: Italia and Germania as shield maidens guarding each other back. A 19th century version of the Pallas Athena dichotomy in Ancient Greece

Very nifty suggestion, and I think that at some point Italy and Germany shall gift each other scultures with such a diptych, an European twin version of the Statue of Liberty, even if scaled-down (by the way, Lady Liberty, if it exists ITTL, shall not be a French gift. No way this reactionary-fascist France-Spain is going to celebrate the American Revolution). Perhaps a new victory arch twin set with the diptych on the top ?

Remaining on the artistic side, Carducci has been officially promoted to the position of poet laureate of the new empire. Expect more in the incoming years, starting with the pageant of 1869 for Roma Capitale and the marriage of the crown prince. I would also guess that a new opera will be commissioned for that occasion. Verdi, I would say. And, taking a leaf from Bismarck's speech I quoted above, the subject might be the short life and death of the last Hohenstaufen Conrad the Younger, innocent victim to the intrigues of a French king and a pope.

All fine suggestions. I would also expect Wagner to produce something similar (Verdi and Wagner had something of a rivalry, perhaps they make operas on the same subject ?). No doubt Verdi's and Wagner's Conrads are going to sing some defiant, stirring prophetic speech on the ultimate resurgence of the Italian and German empires and the downfall of treacherous French kings and Popes.

Other popular subjects for patriotic Italo-German operas shall be the lives of Frederick I and Frederick II Honenstaufen (of course downplaying their fights with Italian communes and highlighting their lifelong struggles with the Popes and French meddling), Ghibelline luminaries such as Ezzelino da Romano and Dante, and the Vespri Siciliani uprising. Dante's anti-Papal, anti-French, pro-imperial pieces in the Divina Commedia shall be revered even more than IOTL as prophetic.

All nice, but if Italy has to be able to stand tall the budget and the debts must be kept under control. Some new taxes are necessary.

Very true, but this Itay has already managed to gain a rather sounder economic basis than OTL, and the Italian public can have no doubt that military expenses were well-spent. I do not expect that some new taxes shall bring anywhere near the unrest that the OTL late 1860s tax raises brought.

France managed topay IOTL, so I suppose they will manage ITTL too. Even factoring in the ravages of the war, France is still a very rich country. There will be a significant change in the next decades or so: Italians will not be available as migrants ITTL, so France will have to look elsewhere for its workforce: Spaniards, Polish and Irish I guess.

Good point. By the way, I have assumed that TTL's Commune shall occur between the armistice and the peace treaty as IOTL, it shall sweep Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles, but no other major French cities, as they are the French cities with main concentrations of urban workers, and that like IOTL, the provisional government shall put it down mainly with its own troops (buffered up by PoWs released before the peace treaty by Bismarck and di Castagna for such a purpose), with little direct Italo-German intervention. Do you agree ?

Archbishop Guidi of Bologna in Italy and theologian Johann von Donninger in Germany will be the leaders of the schism. IOTL, von Donninger was defrocked for his opposition to papal infallibility. Guidi was more diplomatic, but left the council not to cast a vote (and even IOTL 1 in 5 of the attending prelates did the same. ITTL I would guess at least 1 in 3). Apparently arch-bishop Guidi went back to Pius IX after the council ended, to mend the fences but also to put once again forward his contention that papal infallibility represented a complete breach with Catholic tradition. He was rebuked by the pope with the famous quip: "Tradition? I am tradition"

We may count on LK's expertise to give good coverage on the religious angle. I agree of course. A 30-40% Old catholic defection in the Council seems a reasonable assumption, given that ITTL Pius is taking an even more explicit theocratic breach with tradition, hardening opposition, and that several more German, Austrian, and Italian bishops are going to lean to the anti-Papal side out of nationalist feeling.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Very nifty suggestion, and I think that at some point Italy and Germany shall gift each other scultures with such a diptych, an European twin version of the Statue of Liberty, even if scaled-down (by the way, Lady Liberty, if it exists ITTL, shall not be a French gift. No way this reactionary-fascist France-Spain is going to celebrate the American Revolution). Perhaps a new victory arch twin set with the diptych on the top ?

All very good ideas. The twin version of the Statue of Liberty is a great one: say Italy holding up the scales of justice and Germany with a naked sword ready to defend it. Btw, there will not be a Tour Eiffel in Paris either: I cannot see the Carlist king countenancing a celebration of the hundredth anniversary of the French revolution. A nice counterpont might be Italy and Germany celebrating the centennary of the proclamation of the Rights. A bit too cheeky, maybe: certainly it would completely piss the Holy Alliance

I've also the place for the twin arch of triumph: the Suez canal. At the inauguration (November 1869) Italy and Germany in armour will face the Red sea, while the same two ladies (but in "peace mode") will stand at the Mediterranean entry. Like it?

Originally Posted by Eurofed

All fine suggestions. I would also expect Wagner to produce something similar (Verdi and Wagner had something of a rivalry, perhaps they make operas on the same subject ?). No doubt Verdi's and Wagner's Conrads are going to sing some defiant, stirring prophetic speech on the ultimate resurgence of the Italian and German empires and the downfall of treacherous French kings and Popes.

Maybe not the same subject. What about Wagner doing Conrad and Verdi doing the marriage between Henry and Constance d'Hauteville? It would be a nice celebrative opera for the marriage of the Italian crown prince and the daughter of the house of Hohenzollern, and the wises for the birth of a new Prince of Peace would be quite to the point.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Other popular subjects for patriotic Italo-German operas shall be the lives of Frederick I and Frederick II Honenstaufen (of course downplaying their fights with Italian communes and highlighting their lifelong struggles with the Popes and French meddling), Ghibelline luminaries such as Ezzelino da Romano and Dante, and the Vespri Siciliani uprising. Dante's anti-Papal, anti-French, pro-imperial pieces in the Divina Commedia shall be revered even more than IOTL as prophetic.

All good suggestions. The coming celebrations of the 700th annyversary of the battle of Legnano will have a different meaning ITTL, and will be played to a wholly different tune. Matter of fact, the whole period of the fight for investitures and the struggle of Italian comuni will be rewritten as a most unfortunate squabble between two loving sisters, caused by the machinations of Popes hungry for temporal power and envious of the majesty of theempire and the richness of Italian cities. Gregorio VII will be the very obvious villain of this very political morality play.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Very true, but this Itay has already managed to gain a rather sounder economic basis than OTL, and the Italian public can have no doubt that military expenses were well-spent. I do not expect that some new taxes shall bring anywhere near the unrest that the OTL late 1860s tax raises brought.

Agreed. No "tassa sul macinato" ITTL, and no gen. Bava Beccaris ITTL near future to open fire on the crowds of rioters.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Good point. By the way, I have assumed that TTL's Commune shall occur between the armistice and the peace treaty as IOTL, it shall sweep Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles, but no other major French cities, as they are the French cities with main concentrations of urban workers, and that like IOTL, the provisional government shall put it down mainly with its own troops (buffered up by PoWs released before the peace treaty by Bismarck and di Castagna for such a purpose), with little direct Italo-German intervention. Do you agree ?

Yes, in principle I do. However ITTL the Communard interlude will be more widespread, but at the same time it will also be shorter (France will not last too long after the defeat at Sedan. ITTL they have not just the problem in the north, but also the Italian armies in the south-east) and as you point out the return of the POWs will help the government to repress the insurrections.
I've not made up my mind whether this will be a good or a bad thing for France: the unrest will end sooner, but possibly the cathartic effect of OTL Commune will be missing.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

We may count on LK's expertise to give good coverage on the religious angle. I agree of course. A 30-40% Old catholic defection in the Council seems a reasonable assumption, given that ITTL Pius is taking an even more explicit theocratic breach with tradition, hardening opposition, and that several more German, Austrian, and Italian bishops are going to lean to the anti-Papal side out of nationalist feeling.

Thank you for the vote of confidence , but I must warn you that I'm far from an expert in theology and history of the church.
IMHO, the pope will not have the leisure he enjoyed IOTL to wait a few months before pronouncing the doctrine of infallibility (which is on very shaky grounds in any case: IIRC no one was able to concoct a justification for it based on the evangels, the writings of he Fathers of the Church or in general the previous Catholic doctrine. And it was not for lack of trying, trust me. IOTL the crisis in the council was somehow defused by allowing the opponents to the doctrine to leave. Most of the critics took this way out, and just a few die-hards (chief among them von Donninger) remained to fight. In March 1870 the doctrine was forced through. Even if no major schism occurred, the vulnus to the unity of the church was quite deep, and took many years to heal (the unforgiving attitude of Pius IX toward his critics certainly contributed to this). ITTL the political situation and the clouds of war will force the hand of the pope, and the doctrine will be voted very early, without any attempt to mediate. Which means that it will certainly pass, but not by a large majority, and that its opponents will leave after the vote rather than before it. A much less manageable crisis, which (together with the unstinting support that will be provided by Italy and Germany) explains why the schism will be much ore successful ITTL.


Just a footnote on the military side: the landing in Algeria was in the end a success story; there were however significant logistic problems and more importantly the lack of coordination between the army and the navy became quite evident. All these problems had to be resolved if Italy wanted to have a credible capacity of force projection. The outcome was the creation at the beginning of 1869 of two divisions of Fucilieri di Marina (or marines, if you like it better ): the San Marco (or Serenissima) and the San Giorgio (or Superba), named after the protector saints of respectively Venice and Genoa. Each division was organised over three regiments of nominal 2,000 men each. The San Marco will have its baptism of fire during the occupation of Montenegro in 1875.

[DuQuense]

June 10th, Toulon surrenders. Rather than investing Marseilles, the Italian army wheel north, direction Grenoble.

June 20th, Italian and French forces meet at Chambery. The Italians, coming under heavy French artillery fire, withdraw from the village and await an assault. The French assault proves unsuccessful and they retreat back to the village. After an hours pause, the opposing forces meet again with the Italians waiting until the last possible chance to fire due to low ammunition counts. The Italians are successful and the French retreat back again. The French try one last push under the cover of night but the Italians, on their last leg, manage to repulse the attack. The French force, feeling defeated and having suffered massive casualties in three failed assaults, abandon their effort to drive away the Italians and surrender. Chambery falls to Italy

June 25th-, the German armies slowly destroy the Army of the Loire and the Army of the North.

June 30th, the Italians again try their luck at Toulon. The battle that ensues sees both the Italian and French forces take massive losses. The Italian siege tactic is not working as only half of it can work. The Italian army is properly laying siege however that is ineffective as Toulon is being supplied by sea, due to the French navies’ offensive making it impossible for the Reggia Marina to get into place.

?How did the French regain Toulon in the intervening 3 weeks?

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by DuQuense

?How did the French regain Toulon in the intervening 3 weeks?

They did not. An event of the oiginal chronology was not deleted

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

All very good ideas. The twin version of the Statue of Liberty is a great one: say Italy holding up the scales of justice and Germany with a naked sword ready to defend it.

Btw, there will not be a Tour Eiffel in Paris either: I cannot see the Carlist king countenancing a celebration of the hundredth anniversary of the French revolution. A nice counterpont might be Italy and Germany celebrating the centennary of the proclamation of the Rights. A bit too cheeky, maybe: certainly it would completely piss the Holy Alliance

I've also the place for the twin arch of triumph: the Suez canal. At the inauguration (November 1869) Italy and Germany in armour will face the Red sea, while the same two ladies (but in "peace mode") will stand at the Mediterranean entry. Like it?

All excellent ideas, indeed. I would just favor a slightly different design for the Statue of Liberty diptych: both ladies hold naked swords in one hand, in the other hand Italy holds up the scales of justice, and Germany holds up a shield. It makes the design more symmetrical, and the ladies look more equally powerful. Do you think it would be plausible if we have Italy and Germany, instead of France, gift America with the Statue of Liberty (Holy Alliance powers certainly won't celebrate American Revolution, Britain won't neither for different reasons) ? Either for the centennial of the American Revolution, as IOTL, or for the quadricentennial of Columbus' discovery of America.

Maybe not the same subject. What about Wagner doing Conrad and Verdi doing the marriage between Henry and Constance d'Hauteville? It would be a nice celebrative opera for the marriage of the Italian crown prince and the daughter of the house of Hohenzollern, and the wises for the birth of a new Prince of Peace would be quite to the point.

All good suggestions. The coming celebrations of the 700th anniversary of the battle of Legnano will have a different meaning ITTL, and will be played to a wholly different tune. Matter of fact, the whole period of the fight for investitures and the struggle of Italian comuni will be rewritten as a most unfortunate squabble between two loving sisters, caused by the machinations of Popes hungry for temporal power and envious of the majesty of the empire and the richness of Italian cities. Gregorio VII will be the very obvious villain of this very political morality play.

These, too, are very good ideas. As a matter of fact, patriotic propaganda in Italy and Germany shall indeed reinterpret the whole XI-XIII century period as a sadly missed opportunity for both peoples to realize their rightful destiny in loving sibling bond, spoilt by the power-greedy machinations of the Popes and the envious meddling of the French Kings. All theocratic Popes from Gregory VII to Avignonese Popes shall be cast as the obvious mastermind villains, the Anjou Kings as the co-conspirators, with German Emperors and Ghibelline Italian leaders as the foresighted heroes, some Welf German nobles and Italian city-state leaders as well-meaning patriots tragically duped by the Papal lies, whileas others of that ilk shall be despicted as desplicable traitors.

Agreed. No "tassa sul macinato" ITTL, and no gen. Bava Beccaris ITTL near future to open fire on the crowds of rioters.

Indeed. With the firmer economic groundwork created by Di Castagna's reforms, and the abundant flow of British/German capital and know-how, Italy during the later 1800s shall be an economic success story matching the OTL post-WWII boom.

Yes, in principle I do. However ITTL the Communard interlude will be more widespread, but at the same time it will also be shorter (France will not last too long after the defeat at Sedan. ITTL they have not just the problem in the north, but also the Italian armies in the south-east) and as you point out the return of the POWs will help the government to repress the insurrections.

Agreed. However it is the F-P-I war, not the Commune, that shall be shorter. I do not expect the French to give up immediately after Sedan, IOTL they were very defiant at the perspective of ceding any territory, and the I-G peace requests shall be even rather harsher than IOTL. However, with the Italian victories in the south-east, their military situation is even more thoroughly hopeless (since now the I-G allies have the forces to swarm whole northern and eastern France without overstretching). Therefore I expect that the French shall give up soon after the Germans siege Paris and the Italians Lyon and/or Marseilles. Their delusional attempts to repeat 1793 in the Industrial Age shall fail miserably even quicker ITTL. I think current schedule of the war makes sense. So the F-P-I war itself shall be somewhat shorter but more intense with the two fronts. The Communard interlude itself, which occurs between the armistice and the final peace treaty, shall be more widespread, but last a bit longer (more cities to reconquer) or just as long as IOTL or possibly be a bit shorter if Bismarck and di Castagna release the French PoWs more swiftly in the face of a more threatening far left insurrection.

I've not made up my mind whether this will be a good or a bad thing for France: the unrest will end sooner, but possibly the cathartic effect of OTL Commune will be missing.

Well, the war is shorter but it storms a bigger chunk of France, the Commune is more widespread and its duration shall not be that much different from OTL. Overall there is still going to be a powerful political backlash and unfortunately for France, ITTL the far right is ready and organized to channel it into full takeover, thanks to the Pope's actions.

Thank you for the vote of confidence , but I must warn you that I'm far from an expert in theology and history of the church.
IMHO, the pope will not have the leisure he enjoyed IOTL to wait a few months before pronouncing the doctrine of infallibility (which is on very shaky grounds in any case: IIRC no one was able to concoct a justification for it based on the evangels, the writings of he Fathers of the Church or in general the previous Catholic doctrine. And it was not for lack of trying, trust me. IOTL the crisis in the council was somehow defused by allowing the opponents to the doctrine to leave. Most of the critics took this way out, and just a few die-hards (chief among them von Donninger) remained to fight. In March 1870 the doctrine was forced through. Even if no major schism occurred, the vulnus to the unity of the church was quite deep, and took many years to heal (the unforgiving attitude of Pius IX toward his critics certainly contributed to this). ITTL the political situation and the clouds of war will force the hand of the pope, and the doctrine will be voted very early, without any attempt to mediate. Which means that it will certainly pass, but not by a large majority, and that its opponents will leave after the vote rather than before it. A much less manageable crisis, which (together with the unstinting support that will be provided by Italy and Germany) explains why the schism will be much ore successful ITTL.

It seems that your expertise is more than good enough.

Just a footnote on the military side: the landing in Algeria was in the end a success story; there were however significant logistic problems and more importantly the lack of coordination between the army and the navy became quite evident. All these problems had to be resolved if Italy wanted to have a credible capacity of force projection. The outcome was the creation at the beginning of 1869 of two divisions of Fucilieri di Marina (or marines, if you like it better ): the San Marco (or Serenissima) and the San Giorgio (or Superba), named after the protector saints of respectively Venice and Genoa. Each division was organised over three regiments of nominal 2,000 men each. The San Marco will have its baptism of fire during the occupation of Montenegro in 1875.

Nifty and plausible ideas, which expand on the OTL Italian tradition of good quality in amphibious operations. Fucilieri di Marina shall be the official name, but I would not be surprised if before long, they get be commonly nicknamed as "i marini".

[Franciscus Caesar]

LordKalvan and Eurofed, excellent dialogue as usuall. DuQuense, I apologize. LK was right, I missed that part. Its all fixed now though, thank you for alerting me to that typo

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

All excellent ideas, indeed. I would just favor a slightly different design for the Statue of Liberty diptych: both ladies hold naked swords in one hand, in the other hand Italy holds up the scales of justice, and Germany holds up a shield. It makes the design more symmetrical, and the ladies look more equally powerful. Do you think it would be plausible if we have Italy and Germany, instead of France, gift America with the Statue of Liberty (Holy Alliance powers certainly won't celebrate American Revolution, Britain won't neither for different reasons) ? Either for the centennial of the American Revolution, as IOTL, or for the quadricentennial of Columbus' discovery of America.

Agreed for the two swords, but I think that if Italy holds the scales of justice Germany should raise the torch of freedom, and the swords will be naked but pointing to the ground.
I see very likely that Italy and Germany resent the statues to the USA, and the centennial of the independence s certainly the best opportunity.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

These, too, are very good ideas. As a matter of fact, patriotic propaganda in Italy and Germany shall indeed reinterpret the whole XI-XIII century period as a sadly missed opportunity for both peoples to realize their rightful destiny in loving sibling bond, spoilt by the power-greedy machinations of the Popes and the envious meddling of the French Kings. All theocratic Popes from Gregory VII to Avignonese Popes shall be cast as the obvious mastermind villains, the Anjou Kings as the co-conspirators, with German Emperors and Ghibelline Italian leaders as the foresighted heroes, some Welf German nobles and Italian city-state leaders as well-meaning patriots tragically duped by the Papal lies, whileas others of that ilk shall be despicted as desplicable traitors.

We are on the same page. And ultimately the difference between heroes and traitors (or even dupes) is so small: just a matter of who's paying the historian

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Indeed. With the firmer economic groundwork created by Di Castagna's reforms, and the abundant flow of British/German capital and know-how, Italy during the later 1800s shall be an economic success story matching the OTL post-WWII boom.

Which also means earlier labor organization, and earlier strikes. All for the ood in the long run, obviously. Compared with OTL, there will be a stronger church participation (the new, non-popist church, which will be more sensible in social matters) and a stronger nationalist undertone. Maybe we go back to an earlier suggestion of mine: the symbol of the unions in Italy will be the fasces

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Agreed. However it is the F-P-I war, not the Commune, that shall be shorter. I do not expect the French to give up immediately after Sedan, IOTL they were very defiant at the perspective of ceding any territory, and the I-G peace requests shall be even rather harsher than IOTL. However, with the Italian victories in the south-east, their military situation is even more thoroughly hopeless (since now the I-G allies have the forces to swarm whole northern and eastern France without overstretching). Therefore I expect that the French shall give up soon after the Germans siege Paris and the Italians Lyon and/or Marseilles. Their delusional attempts to repeat 1793 in the Industrial Age shall fail miserably even quicker ITTL. I think current schedule of the war makes sense. So the F-P-I war itself shall be somewhat shorter but more intense with the two fronts. The Communard interlude itself, which occurs between the armistice and the final peace treaty, shall be more widespread, but last a bit longer (more cities to reconquer) or just as long as IOTL or possibly be a bit shorter if Bismarck and di Castagna release the French PoWs more swiftly in the face of a more threatening far left insurrection.

IOTL it took almost 5 months from Sedan to the armistice. ITTL it will take half of that time. There is less time for the Communards to rampage.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Well, the war is shorter but it storms a bigger chunk of France, the Commune is more widespread and its duration shall not be that much different from OTL. Overall there is still going to be a powerful political backlash and unfortunately for France, ITTL the far right is ready and organized to channel it into full takeover, thanks to the Pope's actions.

Agreed on the French right being more focussd, but see also above re. duration.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

It seems that your expertise is more than good enough.

Only time will tell

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Nifty and plausible ideas, which expand on the OTL Italian tradition of good quality in amphibious operations. Fucilieri di Marina shall be the official name, but I would not be surprised if before long, they get be commonly nicknamed as "i marini".

Good try actually it will be "maro'" like it was IOTL for the Fucilieri di Marina. They are not an invention on the spur of the moment, btw. A brigade of "Fanti di Marina" was existing since 1713. Thei role will be however completely different: they will be the spearhead of all amphibious operations (and their motto is "per mare et per terram")

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

Agreed for the two swords, but I think that if Italy holds the scales of justice Germany should raise the torch of freedom, and the swords will be naked but pointing to the ground.

Indeed the torch idea is even more fitting, and I had pictured the swords as pointing to the ground all along.

I see very likely that Italy and Germany resent the statues to the USA, and the centennial of the independence s certainly the best opportunity.

Nice. But a twin Statue of Liberty for America, too ?

We are on the same page. And ultimately the difference between heroes and traitors (or even dupes) is so small: just a matter of who's paying the historian

So very true.

Which also means earlier labor organization, and earlier strikes. All for the ood in the long run, obviously. Compared with OTL, there will be a stronger church participation (the new, non-popist church, which will be more sensible in social matters) and a stronger nationalist undertone. Maybe we go back to an earlier suggestion of mine: the symbol of the unions in Italy will be the fasces

Yup, Italian labor shall organize earlier, but thanks to greater economic affluence and christian democrat influence, it shall be more peaceful and reformist than OTL, more akin to Britain and Germany, which shall accelerate its integration in the political system. The divergencies you mention shall surely occur, and I would add also a relative marginalization of the marxist ideology. All in all, I think that both in Italy and in Germany, these changes shall produce a slightly different political system, with 3 big mainstream blocs, a center-of-right conservative-nationalist one, a center liberal one, and a center-of-right christian-democrat labor one, rather like the British one without the semplification induced by the FPTP system. Agreed about the symbol.

IOTL it took almost 5 months from Sedan to the armistice. ITTL it will take half of that time. There is less time for the Communards to rampage.

You are correct about the shorter duration of the war. However, the Commune did not occur while France still fought the Prussians (and the Italians ITTL). It happened in the immediate post-war period between the armistice, the election of the constitutional assembly, and the final peace treaty. As such, I do not think a shorter war is going to necessarily mean a shorter Commune; ITTL the war is shorter but wider-ranging, and the effects on domestric unrest cause the Commune to spread towards other cities, but otherwise cancel themselves out. Please check your dates, the Commune did not explode during the Siege of Paris (although it brewed up then), but immediately afterwards. Now, if you say that a shorter siege of major French cities is going to make a less violent Commune, that's another issue worthy of discussion (although I'm skeptical, most likely the more severe military defeat cancels out the effect of a shorter war).

Good try actually it will be "maro'" like it was IOTL for the Fucilieri di Marina. They are not an invention on the spur of the moment, btw. A brigade of "Fanti di Marina" was existing since 1713. Thei role will be however completely different: they will be the spearhead of all amphibious operations (and their motto is "per mare et per terram")

Quite true, and actually it shall be "marò", with stress on the "o".

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Nice. But a twin Statue of Liberty for America, too ?

Well, why not? and also a "tour Eiffel" (with another name: what about Krupp Turm?) in Berlin for the 1886 expo to celebrate the centennial of the death of Frederikthe Great?

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Yup, Italian labor shall organize earlier, but thanks to greater economic affluence and christian democrat influence, it shall be more peaceful and reformist than OTL, more akin to Britain and Germany, which shall accelerate its integration in the political system. The divergencies you mention shall surely occur, and I would add also a relative marginalization of the marxist ideology. All in all, I think that both in Italy and in Germany, these changes shall produce a slightly different political system, with 3 big mainstream blocs, a center-of-right conservative-nationalist one, a center liberal one, and a center-of-right christian-democrat labor one, rather like the British one without the semplification induced by the FPTP system. Agreed about the symbol.

IMHO there would be the same happening in both Italy and Germany: the two countries have got too close to fail to influence each other in cultural and social trends. I would also agree about the marginalization of the marxist ideology: the national pride in both countries will not mix wel with the concept of internationalism. This may have far-reaching consequences, given that France will "enjoy" a far-right and very repressive restoration. Will marxism become a purely British phenomenon? or even will Marx and Engels becoe a mere footnote in philosophy books? Another though is that Germany and Italy might start early on the road to corporativism (which might not be a bad thing in itself: it just depends on how the game is played). ITTL there would not be a Catholic church preaching aginst modernism, and intimating the faithfuls to stay out of it. OTOH, there would still be a very entrenched and myopic aristocracy in both countries who would fight a rearguard battle to conserve their privileges. And again an economic boom would bring also inflation: the worst-hit in an inflationary process are the landholders. In a better world (and TTL is a better world) the break-up of the big estates will happen 30 or 40 years earlier. 15 yers after the POD the butterflies can be huge.

Originally Posted by Eurofed

You are correct about the shorter duration of the war. However, the Commune did not occur while France still fought the Prussians (and the Italians ITTL). It happened in the immediate post-war period between the armistice, the election of the constitutional assembly, and the final peace treaty. As such, I do not think a shorter war is going to necessarily mean a shorter Commune; ITTL the war is shorter but wider-ranging, and the effects on domestric unrest cause the Commune to spread towards other cities, but otherwise cancel themselves out. Please check your dates, the Commune did not explode during the Siege of Paris (although it brewed up then), but immediately afterwards. Now, if you say that a shorter siege of major French cities is going to make a less violent Commune, that's another issue worthy of discussion (although I'm skeptical, most likely the more severe military defeat cancels out the effect of a shorter war).

You're obviously correct about the Commune happening after the end of the war. Maybe ITTL Thiers will be less slow in crushing the Commune; or (and it is equally possible) the Communards will realise that failing to nationalise the assets of the Banque Nationale might not be the smartest move in the world.

I'm anticipating that the repression will be harsher than IOTL:there will be a religious undertone to the fight against the Commune, with the pope fulminating from Avignon (and maybe the Punch will lampoon Pius IX: the pope blessing a company of Zouaves in front of a mound of civilian corpses?)


Two different topics now:
- the repression of the Commune and the clerical-monarchist ancien regime that will be established soon after will induce a diaspora of the best intelectual brains of France. Where do you think they will go? My guess would be Geneve and Bruxelles.
- this is a bitmore serious and far reaching. The British PM is still Disraeli, whose paranoia about controlling the route to India is well known. I think that when the news percolate about the French shares in the canal being handed over to Italy and Germany he will go bonkers. What do you think will happen? Would it make sense to sell Britain aportion of the sharesand make them partners in the new Compagnie de Suez? For a substantial price, obviously: Britain will buy the khedive's shares when he goes broken (1876 IIRC) but this time they are not dealing with a defaulting khedive of Egypt. It might not work, mind: Disraeli managed to freeze the works on the canal from 1854 to 1866, after all. The alternative might be not to give a damn. What can Britain do at this stage? The canalis supposed to be inaugurated in November 1869. Maybe the early war delays the inauguration (say 6 months, to May 1870?) but it cannot be more than that. And by this time the Italian government will have been already sniffing in Erythrea: IOTL they sent Rubattino Shipping Company as their cat's paw to buy Assab in 1870; I guess that TTL they might even anticipate this move (and IOTL Disraeli was royally pissed off by Italian moves, and tried to involve the khedive who had some kind of claim on the region). Anything might happen, including Disraeli loosing next election to Gladstone who had a completely different attitude.