It's been ten years since Katrina, and while a lot of folks are talking about how things could have been better, or people better prepared, I want to know the opposite - what could have gone worse? What would have been the worst case scenario? Is what we got pretty close, or did we end up luckier?
AHC: Worst Case Hurricane Katrina
- Thread starter thekingsguard
- Start date
Worst case was for the storm to have stalled when it hit the coast....
Moving the eye westwards would have saved the Mississippi Gulf Coast
Moving the eye westwards would have saved the Mississippi Gulf Coast
Orville_third
Banned
A good idea would be to follow the path inspired by the made-for-tv mockumentary (which was released not long before Katrina) "Oil Storm." It features the devastation of not only New Orleans, but also Port Fourchon, home of both a major onshore oil terminal, as well as a major offshore oil terminal. (Of course, the major impact is less on the area than on the price of oil worldwide.
If any reactors in the Gulf Area had a Fukushima-type meltdown, it would be an even worse disaster.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Bend_Nuclear_Generating_Station
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterford_Nuclear_Generating_Station
If any reactors in the Gulf Area had a Fukushima-type meltdown, it would be an even worse disaster.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Bend_Nuclear_Generating_Station
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterford_Nuclear_Generating_Station
Aside from Bush and Cheney themselves, who exactly is this a worst case for? If anything, the media attention of an election campaign might cause them to be a bit less hands off with the situation.
Also it could lead to Kerry winning, and anyone's better than Dubya when the financial crisis comes along. Also it would have exposed the incompetence of Bush's FEMA pick much earlier.
Apart from the problem of having to get every refugee in the Houston Astrodome a valid voter ID and registration within three months or face the worst race riots in the cities history... I think once politics get involved the situation gets f'''ed up real fast. Starting with every politician questioning every number that comes out as propaganda from the other side until in the end no-one would know anymore what is actually going on.
Worse case scenario...I'm going to go with the storm tracking west of Plaquemines Parish up through Barataria Bay. That keeps it west enough that the eyewall tracks right over Greater New Orleans while still pushing a ton of water up the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet ("Mr. GO") and also from Chandleur Sound into Lake Borgne and Lake Ponchartrain where it can go to work on the levees along the Southshore and flood the Northshore south of I-12. Plus make the rapid strengthening of the storm to a Category 5 seen on Saturday 8/27/05 OTL happen a day later so most New Orleanians (me included) are caught unaware by the newly upgraded monster on our doorstep and don't have time to get the hell out of Dodge.(After all roughly a million out of a metro population 1.3 million had enough time to evacuate to points north and west.)
Orville_third
Banned
They have- just they may have allowed for the free voter registration cards, which don't have photos (and are only useful for election purposes, unlike other photo ID cards, which makes them less likely to be forged...).
I really don't think that's as big a deal as you make out. If for no other reason than the fact that neither Texas nor Louisiana are anything close to swing states so no matter which way those people vote the election itself won't be affected.
..sorry.
Different worst case scenario, but close enough for gummint work.
Nah, gotta thank you for reminding me of that cartoon. This native Louisianan would watch that movie in a heartbeat.
On a more serious note, Katrina and Rita did do some serious damage to quite a few oil platforms out in the Gulf--although much of the heavy damage was to platforms no longer in production.
Had the storm as a category 5 arrived about six days earlier, it would have been at the time of the full moon and thus the highest possible high tides (not the same on the Gulf as on either oceanic shore, but still...). Coming onshore just to the west (as posited above) at the time of high tide with a full moon might just push an even more incredible volume of water inland with consequences to suit.
The NWS, about 2 days before Katrina hit, had a warning that could only be called 'apocalyptic". The warning said that skyscrapers would be gutted by the winds, flooding on a scale never seen before in New Orleans, and that anyone who was outside during this event would be killed in any one of multiple ways--wind blown debris, millions if shards of glass, flooding, etc.
I remember being chilled to the bone reading it; I'll see if it's been archived somewhere. I had it, but on a computer that is long gone now.
Edit: found it.
http://thevane.gawker.com/certain-death-looking-at-the-dire-katrina-bulletin-9-1627728946
I remember being chilled to the bone reading it; I'll see if it's been archived somewhere. I had it, but on a computer that is long gone now.
Edit: found it.
http://thevane.gawker.com/certain-death-looking-at-the-dire-katrina-bulletin-9-1627728946
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Here's a link to one:
http://web.archive.org/web/20060301...gov/data/warn_archive/LIX/NPW/0828_214001.txt.
And here's the link to the other:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weather_Service_bulletin_for_Hurricane_Katrina.
http://web.archive.org/web/20060301...gov/data/warn_archive/LIX/NPW/0828_214001.txt.
And here's the link to the other:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weather_Service_bulletin_for_Hurricane_Katrina.