Effects of a pro-Soviet Panama?

Imagine no POD earlier than 1945, with such a regime in place and established by about 1965 at the latest. It isn't, for the record, necessarily a regime that is going to last a long time either. But let's say it will be extant, and a thorn in Washington's side, for a minimum of 2 and a half years (through whatever combination of good strategy and sheer luck on the part of the leadership in Panama City and their buds in Moscow).

What does "pro-Soviet" mean? It doesn't necessarily mean that Panama is ruled by an explicitly Marxist-Leninist party, or that Panama has publicly gone so far towards the Second World that it isn't a part of the Non-Aligned Movement. What it does mean is that the government in Panama City is actively collaborating with the Soviet Union in a way that is beneficial to that superpower and harmful to the interests of the United States. This is much more than the local dictator's son getting to study in Moscow, in other words. There is actually some high-level political intrigue warranting at least some level of espionage, military positioning, etc. And probably involving access to the Panama Canal because, well, obviously.

In this situation, I imagine that the Panama Canal would not actually be nationalized - unless the United States is really having a lot of trouble, which probably things are going poorly elsewhere in the Cold War. But who knows. I imagine that there will be effects for Panama's neighbours, especially Costa Rica, which I think had a fairly social-democratish presidency for a lot of the Cold War, but managed to get left alone in comparison to its neighbours. This might change that? Finally, I guess it matters a great deal whether a Communist-led Cuba exists in this timeline or not, but if it did, I imagine that a friendly country nearby would probably be very helpful for the project of spreading socialism around Latin America. But, hey, maybe without the Panama Canal, it's simply not that useful.
 
Well, unless they can, somehow, threaten to truly destroy the channel, or the USSR can base nuclear weapons there before the USA notices, then the USA will simply invade
 

Delta Force

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The Panama Canal Zone was American territory garrisoned by thousands of American soldiers, so it would be difficult to covertly or overtly damage it.
 
The Panama Canal Zone was American territory garrisoned by thousands of American soldiers, so it would be difficult to covertly or overtly damage it.
Absolutely. I was thinking about ships carrying explosives/mines, but I'd say the American garrison was also thinking about the same. On top, it would be an attack on US soil.
 
The Panama Canal Zone was American territory garrisoned by thousands of American soldiers, so it would be difficult to covertly or overtly damage it.


I assume that Panama would be making noises about Imperialism and Colonialism and the US will tell them to pound salt.

At the least more soldiers will be stationed there, and if the Canal is threatened invasion would be likely.
 
OTL the US facilitated numerous coups throughout Latin America against regimes that were suspected of potentially being pro-Soviet with Guatemala and Chile as the two most prominent examples.

If Panama actually goes pro-Soviet in any substantive fashion you'd be able to measure how long that government would survive with a stopwatch.
 
As soon as such a government was in office, the usual destabilization effort would kick in, and if a coup wasn't possible-though one would be highly likely, invasion. Finis to the government, and the usual aftereffects of a successful coup follow. ISTR reading where a Honduran Army officer was telling an American reporter "We don't have a scorched earth policy, we have a scorched communist policy." You get the idea.
 
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