A Russian Succession POD

What would be the effects of Emperor Alexander I's brother, Grand Duke Constantine Pavlovich, managing to have a legitimate son with his wife, Julianne of Saxe-Coburg-Saalfeld?

Let's say that the grand duchess manages to conceive around 1797 and gives birth to a son, who for the sake of discussion, we shall refer to as 'Paul'.

My knowledge of early nineteenth century Russia is lacking, so forgive my ignorance, but what major butterflies are going to result from this and how will this affect the matters in the short and long term?

Endymion said:

What would be the effects of Emperor Alexander I's brother, Grand Duke Constantine Pavlovich, managing to have a legitimate son with his wife, Julianne of Saxe-Coburg-Saalfeld?

Let's say that the grand duchess manages to conceive around 1797 and gives birth to a son, who for the sake of discussion, we shall refer to as 'Paul'.

My knowledge of early nineteenth century Russia is lacking, so forgive my ignorance, but what major butterflies are going to result from this and how will this affect the matters in the short and long term?

Click to expand...

Julianne married her husband in 1796 but separated from him by 1799, permanently returned to her home in Germany in 1801, and rebuffed an attempt at a reunion in 1814. So for this to work, the conception of 'Paul' would have had to be early, as in during their wedding night.

So by 1799 when the couple formally separated, Paul would be three or four.

His father was noted for being 'eccentric and cruel' and quite the reactionary. I doubt that Paul would have had a good relationship with his father, in fact I suspect it would be an abusive one, unless he got lucky and Alexander I took over the actual raising of 'the Heir'.

In fact I think that with the birth of Paul, Alexander I would have made public his brother's renunciation of his rights to be Emperor of Russia, issuing a decree to place the succession on Paul's shoulders (just to keep his other brother Nicholas, another reactionary from getting it).

The Decembrist revolt could have been a plot by officers to make either of the brother's the Russian Emperor, but due to a lack of coordination on their part (and disagreement as to WHO would be Emperor in place of Paul), the plot was foiled and Paul II (age 29), raised by the liberal Alexander I would rule Russia.

Shiva said:

Julianne married her husband in 1796 but separated from him by 1799, permanently returned to her home in Germany in 1801, and rebuffed an attempt at a reunion in 1814. So for this to work, the conception of 'Paul' would have had to be early, as in during their wedding night.

So by 1799 when the couple formally separated, Paul would be three or four.

His father was noted for being 'eccentric and cruel' and quite the reactionary. I doubt that Paul would have had a good relationship with his father, in fact I suspect it would be an abusive one, unless he got lucky and Alexander I took over the actual raising of 'the Heir'.

In fact I think that with the birth of Paul, Alexander I would have made public his brother's renunciation of his rights to be Emperor of Russia, issuing a decree to place the succession on Paul's shoulders (just to keep his other brother Nicholas, another reactionary from getting it).

The Decembrist revolt could have been a plot by officers to make either of the brother's the Russian Emperor, but due to a lack of coordination on their part (and disagreement as to WHO would be Emperor in place of Paul), the plot was foiled and Paul II (age 29), raised by the liberal Alexander I would rule Russia.

Click to expand...

More or less what I was thinking, but a few questions:

Would Constantine renounce his rights in this scenario? It was my understanding that his morganatic marriage in 1822 played a large part in his eventual decision?

What were relations like between the two brothers? Would the birth of 'Paul' serve as an impetus for Alexander to quietly force out his brother now that he had a better heir?

If Alexander's reign goes more or less as in OTL, what would an alternative Russia look like under a tsar who continues his policies? I imagine that the butterflies are going to be massive, to say the least...

Also, would there even be some sort of ALT equivalent to the OTL Decemberists in this scenario, given the butterflies and different circumstances surrounding the succession?

What would be most interesting about this would that it would be history repeating itself in the Romanov family for a third time. If memory serves, Empress Elizabeth took Paul I from Catherine soon after his birth in order to control his upbringing and education (though her death prevented much from coming of it). Similarly, Catherine removed both Alexander and Constantine from the care of their father in order to achieve the same ends. If Constantine has a son, Alexander can easily do the same thing and mild his nephew into the ideal heir that he desires and by pass his reactionary brothers.

Endymion said:

More or less what I was thinking, but a few questions:

Would Constantine renounce his rights in this scenario? It was my understanding that his morganatic marriage in 1822 played a large part in his eventual decision?

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I've assumed that his wife still rejects him, so a morganatic marriage is perfectly possible. Especially since he does have a legitimate heir already.

Endymion said:

What were relations like between the two brothers? Would the birth of 'Paul' serve as an impetus for Alexander to quietly force out his brother now that he had a better heir?

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If I remember correctly Alexander had a difficult relationship with his brothers, or at least Constantine. With Paul in the mix, Alexander would see the perfect chance to make his very own heir and go out of his way to push Constantine (and maybe Nicholas as well) out of the succession.

Endymion said:

If Alexander's reign goes more or less as in OTL, what would an alternative Russia look like under a tsar who continues his policies? I imagine that the butterflies are going to be massive, to say the least...

Click to expand...

Oh yes, the butterflies would be MASSIVE. As in I doubt that Communism would ever really take off and Russia could become a Superpower before WWI sort of changes.

Endymion said:

Also, would there even be some sort of ALT equivalent to the OTL Decemberists in this scenario, given the butterflies and different circumstances surrounding the succession?

Click to expand...

Russia would still be full of reactionaries, desperate to rollback the changes made by 'Alexander the Mad'. Either Constantine or Nicholas would be perfect lightning rods for such conspirators.

Endymion said:

What would be most interesting about this would that it would be history repeating itself in the Romanov family for a third time. If memory serves, Empress Elizabeth took Paul I from Catherine soon after his birth in order to control his upbringing and education (though her death prevented much from coming of it). Similarly, Catherine removed both Alexander and Constantine from the care of their father in order to achieve the same ends. If Constantine has a son, Alexander can easily do the same thing and mild his nephew into the ideal heir that he desires and by pass his reactionary brothers.

Click to expand...

This is what I'm picturing, it's almost a Russian tradition.

From what I've read Constantine was a bit of an odd one. The Poles regarded him as too brutal during his viceregal term there, whilst his own family were of the opinion that in the same time he was far too liberal. He is also described as being emotionally raw, and slightly immature at the time of his marriage and that he bullied his wife. Emperor Paul certainly preferred him to the chameleon Alexander, going so far as to nominate him 'Tsetsarevich'. Also, Constantine was far more pro-French than the rest of his family during the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars. I think with his lack of Alexander's qualities of dissimulation had he been emperor instead, the alliance with France at Tilsit might've held.

But Constantine was also a military man: some books speak of him as being rough and brutal (bearing out the emotional rawness at the time of his marriage) so his ideals on fatherhood might be in tune with Friedrich Wilhelm I of Prussia's.

Bump.

(Filler)