WI: Swedish participation in WW1

For some time prior to the war, Sweden had harbored pro-German sentiments, in particular Swedish conservatives, such as King Gustaf V and Riksmarskalk Ludwig Douglas.

Suppose a conservative government is in power at the onset of the Great War, and feels confident enough to side with the Central Powers.

What happens?

What are the actions of the Swedish military, and how does it perform?

Is Sweden invaded by Russia, or vice versa?

What effects do a Russian invasion of Sweden (or a Swedish invasion of Finland) have on Russian operations in Galicia and East Prussia?

In the event of a CP victory, what does Sweden gain?

In the event of an Entente victory, what does Sweden lose?

Some info on the strength of the Swedish military during this time would also be much appreciated.

This makes things lot harder for the Entente as it both breaks the blockade, and makes ship harder to acquire thanks to the CP now able to put as much or more pressure on Norway as Britain. Also forces the Russian to divert vital troops away from the Eastern Front, though this is a mixed issue as those troops are likely to be easier to supply than on the larger, more fluid front.

Sweden is a nation of 5 million in 1914 and their access to the world's sea lanes faces the same problem as Germany: the need to sail through the North Sea to reach the Atlantic Ocean and beyond.

Norway might well feel increased pressure regarding their "neutral ally" commercial position, but considering the recent independence movement and referendum which Sweden didn't oppose, I don't think the Swedes would move to invade. They lack the manpower to fight the Russians in Finland and occupy Norway.

Taking Scotland as a nation of similar population size, the Swedish Army could've called on around 700,000 men across the full four years. By comparison the German Empire called up around 11-12 million across the four years.

With 700,000 men you're looking an army the size of Romania's, which also called up around 700,000 men across the war. They had around 23 Divisions, meaning the Swedes could look at deploying a similar number across the whole war.

I don't think it would make a big difference. Sweden would stuck behind the same RN blockade that Germany was unless they invaded Norway. If they did, they'd attract a major allied campaign to knock them out of the war. As a comparison, the Allies sent around 560,000 troops in total to fight in Gallipoli, with 15 Divisions deployed at the peak. Sweden would not be able to match this strength and the worst case scenario is Sweden is defeated and an over-land supply line to Russia is established.

Ah, but the big issue is not Sweden itself, but Norway, which can now use the excuse to play true neutral, rather than having to allow its sovereignty to slip to the British.

Of course it further restricts Russia's access to the outside world, as iirc she was able to do some trade via Scandinavia. Maybe the Revolution comes a few months earlier, but it's very iffy.

If Sweden tries to invade Norway she'll end up in a wasp's swarm that will take up a major part of her resources. Quite tricky if you also have a front vs. Russia.

If she leaves Norway alone she can probably defend herself against the Russians but a success like retaking/liberating Finland would require a major German/A-H success upon which to capitalize. When that happened in 1917/18 the Finns took care of that themselves and showed no intentions of "reuniting" with Sweden.

All in all it would be rather unclear what strategic objectives Sweden should fhope to gain through a participation in WWI.

But it indeed would open up some interesting options - seen from my personal perspective not at least how Denmark would be involved?

By WWI Denmark in effect was a German vassal and on German request had mined the Danish straits but the country from top to bottom with very few exceptions had a very distinct anti-German attitude (one of them being the Foreign Secretary however). You could of course imagine a situation where the British out of the blue launch a "Baltic Gallipoli" at Copenhagen and Scania and push Denmark into the enemy camp (not unlike 1807), but with a little careful diplomacy beforehand I would not exclude that the British could be “let in the backdoor” for operations against Sweden. Especially if the considerations of Gustaf V before WWI about a partition of Denmark with Germany becomes known or Sweden otherwise show herself overly aggressive.

The main problem of the Danish politicians would be leaving Jutland to German occupation (defence focussed on Zealand/Copenhagen). Before 1901 Copenhagen and Zealand aristocracy dominated the government but after that the farmers from Jutland had the last word and might have bigger worries about leaving their lands to the Germans. In the end I guess the deciding factors will be: Are the British serious about this and do they have a good chance of ultimate success?

The natural theatre for Sweden is Finland and the Baltic. Not invading Norway. Sweden's entry into the war would probably have little direct effect, however. Russia was so heavily engaged in eastern Europe that I don't see them mounting any invasions of Sweden, nor is it likely that Sweden would mount an invasion on its own to "liberate" Finland, unless or until the Czarist empire begins to collapse and the Finns themselves declare independence. Swedes might then intervene to buttress Finnish resistance (or more sinisterly, assert a protectorate). It's also reasonable to presume that select Swedish units might be "loaned" to Germany to fight alongside the Germans the eastern or western front as a Swedish expeditionary force.

Assuming the war still ends in a CP defeat, I think the more interesting question is how this might affect postwar Sweden and the whole idea of Nordic neutrality. Would Sweden be forced to cede territory to Denmark, Norway, or Finland? Pay reparations? Would Sweden see the same sort of revanchist nationalism that Germany did and essentially nip the growth of Scandinavian Democratic Socialism in the bud. Or would Swedes react against the King and ministers who brought the country into the war and declare a Social Democratic Republic then and there?

RightTosser said:

For some time prior to the war, Sweden had harbored pro-German sentiments, in particular Swedish conservatives, such as King Gustaf V and Riksmarskalk Ludwig Douglas.

Suppose a conservative government is in power at the onset of the Great War, and feels confident enough to side with the Central Powers.

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Uh, Sweden *was* governed by conservatives during World War I, at least until after the September 1917 election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hjalmar_Hammarskjöld
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Swartz

The most that these people and Foreign Minister Wallenberg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knut_Agathon_Wallenberg would concede to Germany was a "benevolent" neutrality. That is really as far as public opinion would allow them to go--it might have ben somewhat pro-German but the so-called Activists who wanted an outright alliance with Germany were a small minority.

Apparently, Nikolai Essen, Admiral of the Baltic Fleet,

led part of his fleet towards Gotland to contain the Swedish navy and deliver a note of his own making which would have violated Swedish neutrality and may have brought Sweden into the war. He was ordered back before his plan could be executed.

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That would be a useful way of forcing Sweden into the war.

RightTosser said:

For some time prior to the war, Sweden had harbored pro-German sentiments, in particular Swedish conservatives, such as King Gustaf V and Riksmarskalk Ludwig Douglas.

Suppose a conservative government is in power at the onset of the Great War, and feels confident enough to side with the Central Powers.

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Did this a few months back in this thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=337606 , but it's always good to revisit things.

What happens?

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Germany is unable to use Swedish ciphers for communicating with the rest of the world I imagine, the British will work to decode those as well.

Entente ships are bottled up in the Baltic as soon as Sweden enters the war. Some were able to avoid the Danish mines by sailing through the Swedish half of the Oresund until it was closed in 1916 IOTL.

Is Sweden invaded by Russia, or vice versa?

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There will definitely be a naval conflict in the Baltic instigated by the Russians. Admiral von Essen has been mentioned.

As I recall, the Aland Islands were demilitarized at the beginning of the war, only to be refortified by the Russians as fear of a Swedish intervention grew, specially in 1915. Sweden may have an opening here.

What effects do a Russian invasion of Sweden (or a Swedish invasion of Finland) have on Russian operations in Galicia and East Prussia?

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They'll have to free up troops for defenses in Finland.

In the event of a CP victory, what does Sweden gain?

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The Aland Islands definitely. German diplomats at times during the war offered Finland and even the Baltic lands, but there's no way Sweden could hold them. Maybe the Swedophone coasts of Finland?

In the event of an Entente victory, what does Sweden lose?

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Sweden is fairly homogenous. If the other Scandinavians join the war on the Entente side, I suppose there might be some ridiculous calls for Scania to be returned to Denmark by the other powers and the like, but I doubt it would happen. Denmark was skittish enough about the Schleswig plebiscites historically.

Some info on the strength of the Swedish military during this time would also be much appreciated.

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It was the largest and most modern of the three Scandinavian states, that is certain.