WI no Nigerian civil war

Nigeria like India is a culturally diverse nation but upon independence ethnic divisions combined with how resources (oil) were controlled by one group led to civil war.

So what pods pre or post 1900 can make Nigeria [A] more stable and stop the civil war and how would modern day the Nigeria look like if the war never happened and how would that effect Africa.

I think we have to assume independence occurs more or less on schedule in 1960 or thereabouts. The possible PoDs might include:

1. No unification of the North and South Nigeria Protectorates just before WW1, or a later reversal of this. The political dynamics would be quite different if the Southerners no longer felt that they were subsidising the North. I am surely simplifying, but politics in the South would then be a more or less equal balance between the Yoruba and Igbo, perhaps with the Tiv holding the balance of power. This might make for a more workable political situation. (At the risk of self-publicising, this is the route I have taken in my sigged TL, though I admit Nigeria is a minor theme therein.) The North would be poorer, however, which might make it even more vulnerable to Boko Haram or similar movements .

2. A pre-1900 PoD would be for the French to get the North in their sphere of influence, leaving the south to the British. A different line on the map at the 1885 Berlin Conference might do this. (It might also butterfly the Voulet- Chanoine Mission, a horrible episode.) This would then put the Hausa etc. into Niger rather than Nigeria, making Niger a more homogeneously Hausa country with its capital at Kano instead of Niamey. This scenario would probably work to the advantage of both Nigeria and Niger, by reducing the potential for ethnic conflicts. If so, OTL is a classic case of European imperalists fouling up other people's borders .

3. A much earlier or later discovery of the major oil deposits might also change the dynamics, though I think this is doubtful.

The consequences of butterflying the civil war would be profound. Nigeria would be a good deal richer, most obviously, which would probably help its neighbours economically. There would also probably be political and diplomatic implications for the whole of Africa.

Out of curiosity because I find this episode absolutely fascinating, how does the Voulet-Chanoine expedition factor into this?

Tanc49 said:

Out of curiosity because I find this episode absolutely fascinating, how does the Voulet-Chanoine expedition factor into this?

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My reasoning here is that if the Berlin Conference dividing line is further south, the French attempt to enforce their rule in the Niger region might come earlier or later - which means that someone other than Voulet might lead the relevant expedition. Somebody sane, for instance.

Have Ironsi keep power, although it would make sure that the Igbo don't rebel in the short term, that might cause a northern secession.

The two best possibilities I can think of are either the Northern Nigeria Protectorate doesn't merge with Southern Nigeria Protectorate and the Lagos Colony in 1914 or that after independence it stays as the Federation of Nigeria with the three regions - Western, Eastern, and Northern - having a fair amount of internal autonomy rather than becoming a federal republic.

frustrated progressive said:

Have Ironsi keep power, although it would make sure that the Igbo don't rebel in the short term, that might cause a northern secession.

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From southern Nigeria's point of view that might be a case, outside of prestige or pride, of glad to see them go. As I understand things northern Nigeria is generally a net recipient of government spending and mainly religiously and culturally different. Her the southern half of the country now gets to split the oil revenues two ways instead of three.

OTL Northern Nigeria is vastly different geographically and culturally. Nan is mostly populated by Muslims living on the edge of the Sahara Desert, while SN is mostly populated by Christians and animalists living in coastal swamps. sN has all the oil wealth.