AHC: Make Ireland a World Power

The challenge is to make Ireland a World Power by the beginning of the First World War.

*It does not need to be the dominant world power.

1. How far back would you guys go?

2. What would need to be changed? (No ASB changes.)

3. Extra points if you do this not at the expense of England (Beyond the freedom of Scotland that is, though this is not a requirement.).

ireland being a world power? given how divided ireland was and the lack of abudent resources like iron, i think at most ireland could be like portugal if it unites:a trading based nation. and given how the english wanted to conquer them, it wouldnt be a smooth ride. but unite ireland early enough, and have them focus on the navy, plus scotland no being PUed by england and a policy of neutrality, you might have a secondary power. still, mainland britain has more resources

sh3baproject said:

ireland being a world power? given how divided ireland was and the lack of abudent resources like iron, i think at most ireland could be like portugal if it unites:a trading based nation. and given how the english wanted to conquer them, it wouldnt be a smooth ride. but unite ireland early enough, and have them focus on the navy, plus scotland no being PUed by england and a policy of neutrality, you might have a secondary power. still, mainland britain has more resources

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That's kinda what I was thinking of too. In my mind an Irish World Power that lasted that long, would be a better off Portugal. In another thread that was up a few days ago, there was discussions about an Irish Monk that may reached the North of America before the Vikings. His maps and notes were pretty accurate. If Ireland were to unify early on and remain a stable nation, then one of it's kings decided to invest in seeing if the Monk's travels were actually true, then Ireland could do well off. Colonisings North America around the same time as Portugal in the South.

If you could keep the English busy elsewhere, then Ireland could do well for itself in Canada. Also if the Scandinavian Lumber became much harder to get, then Ireland could stand to make a income. From that point, we just need to make sure Ireland remains stable and expands slowly.

Henry the younger survives his dad. Henry splits his domains between his son and John gets Lord of Ireland he and his descendants secure all of Ireland for them. In this tl you have anglonorman nobility and irish peasants. They colonize parts of america and Africa and the Indias

LeCHVCK said:

Henry the younger survives his dad. Henry splits his domains between his son and John gets Lord of Ireland he and his descendants secure all of Ireland for them. In this tl you have anglonorman nobility and irish peasants. They colonize parts of america and Africa and the Indias

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but the english still rule ireland even if not england itself

sh3baproject said:

but the english still rule ireland even if not england itself

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But the English settlers tend to assimilate themselves with the Irish during the middle ages.

They become, "More Irish than the Irish" as the saying goes.

That happened with the English aristocracy who settled, and it would happen to an English king who ruled only Ireland.

There is the chance to have the O'Neill's unify Ireland in the 16th and early 17th centuries. If they pull it off, and secure a military alliance with the Spanish, you could see them standing on their own long enough to strengthen from within. During this time period Ireland was being ravaged by wars with England, so perhaps with a little extra help from Spain, this could have an Irish rebound.

Ireland would be late in the colonization game. Perhaps their colonial history would resemble Sweden more than Portugal of Netherlands.

@tonifraz oh yea. forgot about that i enjoy history, but theres only so much i can remember without it conflicting with high school.

@errenge. maybe not as late as your expecting if they are lucky.

Of course, if we go with the Portugal analogy, an Irish *Brazil might have the manpower and resources to be a serious power...

Bruce

Errnge said:

There is the chance to have the O'Neill's unify Ireland in the 16th and early 17th centuries. If they pull it off, and secure a military alliance with the Spanish, you could see them standing on their own long enough to strengthen from within. During this time period Ireland was being ravaged by wars with England, so perhaps with a little extra help from Spain, this could have an Irish rebound.

Ireland would be late in the colonization game. Perhaps their colonial history would resemble Sweden more than Portugal of Netherlands.

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I personally think 16th century is too late for a POD. The "Tudor conquest" of Ireland happened during this time period, so I don't think there is really time for the O'Neill's to unify anything before the English come in and shake everything up. I think 15th century is a better option as the English are busy with the Wars of the Roses, and the O'Neill's were already powerful by this point.

But I still think Ireland can't stay independent into the 17th century unless you either majorly screw England, or give the English more to gain from trade with Ireland than from an invasion. Maybe if Ireland is a trading power with control over North American lumber or furs, and most of the English navy is built from lumber obtained from Irish sources.

To be honest, in the long term I don't think you'd see Ireland itself being the world power, but the Irish colony in the New World being more populous and powerful than the mother country. I think the Portugal/Brazil analogy is perfect here. I actually tried a TL which was supposed to develop along these lines a few years back, but gave up when I realized that, by picking a POD two centuries before the time period I was really interested in, I had created WAY too many butterflies to keep track of.

Ireland as Portugal really is what you want to go for, I agree.

I think that your PoD needs to be a long way back, in the 14th century at latest. The critical element of creating an Irish trade power is a destabilized Great Britain, and particularly a disunited England. The best way to do that, I think, is to have a less thorough Norman conquest - where powerful Saxon lords are dominant in England, with more regular civil wars that break English centralization. If you could also get into perpetual wars of succession - perhaps if, say, William takes the throne, but the Godwinsons survive and the Scandinavian claimants regularly launch attacks - that would do the trick of creating a strong, squabbling nobility that would be difficult to centralize.

Having broken England, what you need to do is create a clear, central state in Ireland, under one dynasty - that dynasty could be Irish, Norman, or Scandinavian, but it needs to establish a strong nation. Ideally, it also messes around in England and keeps it unstable, perhaps due to dynastic ties between the Irish royal family and English nobility. Ireland doesn't need to be perfectly centralized, and can certainly continue to have strong nobles, a feudal government, and its own succession disputes and civil wars, but what it needs to do is be more centralized than England, over a period of time lasting minimally centuries.

By the time of the *Age of Discovery, Ireland is in a good position (especially if it is an Irish explorer who discovers either the New World or - even better - the eastern route to the Indies) to become a significant trade and colonial power, especially if England continues to be weak. Even if England stabilized to some extent, TTL Ireland and England are likely to be on a more equal footing than in OTL, alike to OTL Portugal and Spain. (EDIT: Emphasis on more equal - if England ever really centralizes and unites, it will almost necessarily be dominant in the of the British isles to some extent)

In the long-term though, Ireland just isn't really in a position to maintain power status into the industrial revolution. It simply doesn't have the resources to do so. But it could remain a cultural power into modern times, if Irish-speaking settlers and/or Irish-dominated colonial states in Africa, the Indies or the western hemisphere are well-established, and remain something of a middling power in European power politics.

Republican revolution in England, monarchy flees to Ireland, Ireland inherits the empire and for some reason almost completely royalist navy?

At best, Ireland could become like the Netherlands - a small country that could have a large trading sector that temporarily puts it into the range of European great power as its financial clout allows formation of a small, elite, well disciplined army and navy that allows it to defeat its betters. Eventually, the larger powers will overwhelm it and it would slink back to second tier status, perhaps highly developed, but not a great power. This assumes that like Portugal and Netherlands, Ireland does develop some resource colonies that give it some prestige and influence outside of Europe.

Ireland has a small population (even compared to other states being used as examples), limited resources, and has no real natural boundaries that will keep out foreign invaders. To pull this off I think you'd at the very least need to keep Britain divided and even then I think it's a stretch. Ireland doesn't really have all that much in common with the Netherlands or Portugal other than being small.

B_Munro said:

Of course, if we go with the Portugal analogy, an Irish *Brazil might have the manpower and resources to be a serious power...

Bruce

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The geography and prevailing winds would make it pretty difficult for Ireland for hold on to such a colony.

Technically, Ireland, as part of the United Kingdom, WAS a Great Power by 1914.

Besides, England didn't have much choice about interfering in Ireland. The Irish were in the habit of raiding across the Irish Sea and then there were those troublesome NORMAN barons who decided to carve out their own independent territories in Ireland, something no sane king of England would ever tolerate. Once there....

The long standing tradition of conflict between Ireland & England isn't all one way traffic, despite the English habit of tending to win said conflicts. The same goes for England/Scotland and England/Wales.

What you need is for an Irish born Prince to become King of England. After all, it worked for the Welsh (Henry IV Tudor) and the Scots (James 1st & 7th Stuart).

Salamander said:

What you need is for an Irish born Prince to become King of England. After all, it worked for the Welsh (Henry IV Tudor) and the Scots (James 1st & 7th Stuart).

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But that wouldn't be an Irish world power, that'd be an English/British world power ruled by a dynasty that started in Ireland. Does anyone speak of the great Hanoverian world empire?

The most important item is to remove the chronic disunity of the Irish without a successful conquest from outside. Perhaps an invasion from outside that remains a persistent threat even when it's beaten back, because if the Irish feel safe again they'll just start squabbling and the tradition of a united state won't take hold. Reference: the development of England into a single kingdom.
This is way before the time when nationalism by itself can pull a country together from petty kingdoms.

From a simple demographic perspective, Ireland pre-famine had a quite high population of about 8 million, comparable to the population of England - that's the only 'advantage' of Ireland that I can think of (though not really an advantage considering how overpopulated Ireland was.)

Is there any way to somehow achieve rapid industrialization, and parlay that high population into an industrial edge?

Not really.

The Irish need a decisive advantage in time to prevent the Tudor re-conquest of Ireland (16th century), or even the Norman Lordship (which to be fair didn't occupy all of Ireland even at ist peak).

I think the term around here for an Irish industrial revolution by 1542 is ASB.

If Ireland industrializes rapidly after or at the same time as England, it's not in time to become independent, then economically strong, then a colonial empire, especially with Ireland's natural resources.