What if for whatever reason the german navy decisively beats the royal navy at the battle of jutland.
WI: German victory at Jutland
- Thread starter idontlikesand
- Start date
How decisive, like sinks 7 dreadnoughts or something? The question is, unless the Germans can break the blockade it is meaningless.
It reminds me of Panzer General: Decisive Victory and Marginal Victory.
If the Germans did it, it probably pre-empts US participation and the war ends in 1917.
If the Germans did it, it probably pre-empts US participation and the war ends in 1917.
That depends. It would have to be exceptionally decisive -- absolutely annihilating the Royal Navy with relatively light losses, allowing the High Seas Fleet to send the battlecruisers and cruisers of the Scouting Group go hunting the cruisers maintaining the blockade instead of trying to hunt the RN.
That's the problem with the blockade: the forces engaged at Jutland had very little to do with maintaining the blockade against Germany.
Now, if the Germans manage to smash the Royal Navy, I suppose it might manage to encourage the British to seek terms, especially if combined with some sort of improved German victory at Verdun or the Somme.
As well, breaking the Royal Navy may persuade the Romanians to remain in their neutrality if they think the Entente isn't going to stay in for long, which changes up the Eastern Front, I'd think, though I confess I know precious little about that.
Germaniac
Donor
Ive been trying to think of a way, but apart from sinking any number of additional battle cruisers I don't think either side could have had more success. I mean just look at the damage to the HMS Malaya, it took a huge pounding in the battle and just would not sink.
Dreadnoughts are made, by both sides, to withstand an atrocious amount of ordinance and unless the British are stupid enough to only send out a portion of its fleet to go up against the entirety of the HSF its just not going to happen.
The only possibility I see is for a Jutland part two. Without giving up too much (considering a tl) if the Germans realize after Jutland that their codes have been broken (which they already decided that likely and were slowly phasing out the old code) and pressure the fleet to completely do away with the old code, then maybe (with their actions not being known to Room 40) the actions of August 18-19 could give way to a major German naval victory.
Dreadnoughts are made, by both sides, to withstand an atrocious amount of ordinance and unless the British are stupid enough to only send out a portion of its fleet to go up against the entirety of the HSF its just not going to happen.
The only possibility I see is for a Jutland part two. Without giving up too much (considering a tl) if the Germans realize after Jutland that their codes have been broken (which they already decided that likely and were slowly phasing out the old code) and pressure the fleet to completely do away with the old code, then maybe (with their actions not being known to Room 40) the actions of August 18-19 could give way to a major German naval victory.
The Entente geographical advantage was significant, meaning that even with a German victory the blockade could still function since the HSF would still be largely tied to the North Sea area.
Assuming some sort of crushing victory where the RN can no longer put to sea in opposition to the HSF, I think the Germans might win the war. They would be free to shell the British coastline, free to starve the island, and free to oppose in force any attempt by the US Navy to sail substantial forces to Europe (if they even try, probably no unrestricted U-Boat warfare). British forces in France would be cut off from their logistics base, troops in Britain would be unable to move to France and vice versa.
Germany surrendered because their home front collapsed, and a large part of that collapse was the RN's blockade. Forcing the RN into port opens up trade lanes (albeit via a circuitous route via the Atlantic and into the North Sea from the north) providing access to war materials and food from neutral nations.
At the very least, I expect a significant High Seas Fleet victory at Jutland to bring the Entente to the negotiating table. The UK would be very uncomfortable with the situation, as Britain's ability to wage effective war in Europe has always been reliant on dominance of the sea. France would also be terrified because the UK was now cut off, leaving France alone against Germany with anything from hundreds of thousands to somewhere in the mid 1-million mark of extra British troops they're now required to support logistically.
Germany surrendered because their home front collapsed, and a large part of that collapse was the RN's blockade. Forcing the RN into port opens up trade lanes (albeit via a circuitous route via the Atlantic and into the North Sea from the north) providing access to war materials and food from neutral nations.
At the very least, I expect a significant High Seas Fleet victory at Jutland to bring the Entente to the negotiating table. The UK would be very uncomfortable with the situation, as Britain's ability to wage effective war in Europe has always been reliant on dominance of the sea. France would also be terrified because the UK was now cut off, leaving France alone against Germany with anything from hundreds of thousands to somewhere in the mid 1-million mark of extra British troops they're now required to support logistically.
LordKalvert
Banned
Yes, it would have to be a truly crushing victory. The British can make good a lot of any great loss by bringing in Italian and French forces and possibly buying ships from third powers. There's also the Japanese fleet that might be bribed into taking over some actions The Allies have a truly overwhelming firepower advantage at sea
Even a battle that destroys everything that Britain has at Jutland isn't likely to have much affect on the outcome of the War as most of the German fleet is very short range. Shelling Britain isn't going to be a game changer.
The Blockade is run by mostly third class ships and minefields. Not much the HSF is going to do about this. There might be some landing scares that draw off British forces at most
Even a battle that destroys everything that Britain has at Jutland isn't likely to have much affect on the outcome of the War as most of the German fleet is very short range. Shelling Britain isn't going to be a game changer.
The Blockade is run by mostly third class ships and minefields. Not much the HSF is going to do about this. There might be some landing scares that draw off British forces at most
A High Seas Fleet that is in command of the waves could feasibly hunt those third-rate ships, protect minesweeping operations, and maintain a mine-free merchant shipping corridor by force of arms.
If the Royal Navy lose the ability to prevent German Capital Ships from roaming free, their blockade would collapse, because the Germans would be free to start dismantling it.
The High Seas Fleet wouldn't crush the Grand Fleet then just sail back to port and do nothing further. The North Sea would be opened to German traffic, while the shipping lanes leading to Britain's major ports would be mined or prowled by cruisers, destroyers and the like.
If the Royal Navy lose the ability to prevent German Capital Ships from roaming free, their blockade would collapse, because the Germans would be free to start dismantling it.
The High Seas Fleet wouldn't crush the Grand Fleet then just sail back to port and do nothing further. The North Sea would be opened to German traffic, while the shipping lanes leading to Britain's major ports would be mined or prowled by cruisers, destroyers and the like.
Of course so far I've not seen any plausible way for the Germans to win, because the British brought more Dreadnoughts to the fight than Germany brought big-gunned warships, with 28 Dreadnoughts facing off against 16 Dreadnoughts, 6 Pre-Dreadnoughts and 5 battlecruisers (for a total of 27 warships). Seriously, there is a reason the British won, and short of ASB intervention I can't see the results being otherwise.
coughcough, the germans sank more of the british navy than the other way around. hardly a victory - it's a draw for great britain at best.
a full victory at jutland will cause an invasion panic in great britain. even if the military leadership is smarter than the crazed mob the mob will need some reassurances, meaning there's going to be a lot of military gear sitting in great britain avaiting a german invasion that never comes, missing in france where the actual fighting is taking place.
big military screw ups happen so the question of OP should rather be "what if great britain screws up massively at jutland?".
Saphroneth
Banned
Essentially, the problem is - at OTL Jutland, the British lost three capital ships and had most of the damage they received concentrated on a few other ships. The main character of the engagements was the German attempt to disengage, and after the battle they could report that a large undamaged battle fleet was at eight hours readiness for steam.
The Germans lost two ships, with the damage they suffered spread fairly evenly over their fleet, with their commander mainly concerned with getting back to base after discovering he was facing Grand Fleet. They could report readiness to leave port in six to eight weeks, and never did.
The key issue here is that the British scored more hits, they were just more spread; and the Germans were running for it. They didn't want the battle.
The Germans lost two ships, with the damage they suffered spread fairly evenly over their fleet, with their commander mainly concerned with getting back to base after discovering he was facing Grand Fleet. They could report readiness to leave port in six to eight weeks, and never did.
The key issue here is that the British scored more hits, they were just more spread; and the Germans were running for it. They didn't want the battle.
MattII is right here I think. The British lost their Battlecruisers because said ships, not designed for slugging matches, ran right into the guns of High Seas Fleet.
If the Germans had stuck it out and had a slugging match Battleships vs Battleships, Jutland would be remembered as a second Trafalgar.
It's a testament to the judgement of Scheer that he avoided that fate: if you look at the movements of the warships you'll see the Germans were very nearly left with no other option but to slug it out.
A far more plausible AH scenario would be "What if Jutland had been a solid British victory?", but the answer is probably "No different to reality", because the High Seas Fleet never again mounted a serious challenge to the Grand Fleet: it might as well have not existed in practicality.
If the Germans had stuck it out and had a slugging match Battleships vs Battleships, Jutland would be remembered as a second Trafalgar.
It's a testament to the judgement of Scheer that he avoided that fate: if you look at the movements of the warships you'll see the Germans were very nearly left with no other option but to slug it out.
A far more plausible AH scenario would be "What if Jutland had been a solid British victory?", but the answer is probably "No different to reality", because the High Seas Fleet never again mounted a serious challenge to the Grand Fleet: it might as well have not existed in practicality.
German was outnumbered to such a degree that German hopes of victory was reliant on being able to catch a portion of the grand fleet and defeat it with no losses so that they can sail out and face the rest of the fleet on even terms.
If Germany had a crushing victory and sank 10 capital ships without at Jutland it only earns them the right to a relatively even round 2
If Germany had a crushing victory and sank 10 capital ships without at Jutland it only earns them the right to a relatively even round 2
Back to the topic of american involvement - would such a blowing victory make american rulers uneasy enough to swing them pro-allies?