WI: Carlos I of Portugal dies in 1904?

abc123

Banned
July 28, 1904

Reuters:

King of Portugal died in riding accident.

Today, King of Portugal Dom Carlos I died in his Sintra Palace in strange riding accident. It seems that he fell from his horse and break his neck. He died instantly. After hearing the news, Council of Ministers emmediatly proclaimed 7 days mourning. Late king had two sons, older Luis Filipe ( age 17 ) and younger Manuel ( age 15 ). It is expected that Prince Luis will be proclaimed as the new King, but with his uncle Prince Afonso as Regent until he becomes of age in about a year.
Prime Minister of Portugal Ernesto Hintze Ribeiro from Regenerator Party said that this unfortunate death of His Majesty is big loss for Portugal but that he is confident that new ruler will continue with good work of his late father.



OK, what next?
 
Let's see:
It's going to be a short and possibly uneventful regency.
AFAIK the rotativism system in Portugal is still going to be exhausted so no long-term government is foreseeable.

And then the flaps of the wings of these butterflies are getting less and less predictable:

Does the young king eventually accept the less than democratic solution of João Franco? I guess so, it would be easy to sell to him that pretty much every other parliamentary solution has been tested... If he just reforms the election rules the monarchy would fare much better IMO.
Does a new Republican attempt take place? If João Franco or any other dictator is in charge, probably!
Will it be squashed? I guess.
Will a regicide attempt still take place? I guess, if not then, maybe later.
Will it succeed? It can go either way...
If the king is shot dead, would he be remembered purely as a martyr by the people or would the people have an ambivalent reaction to his demise? If it's the latter, not much will change from OTL. If it's the former, the Republican Party may lose its momentum.

IOTL in 1910 a simple skirmish in Lisbon installed the Republican regime in Portugal. No-one wanted to fight back and the regime change happened by default. I guess much of this inaction happened due to the perception of weakness of the regime: their failure to avoid a regicide, the popularity of the funeral of the killers, the growing electoral successes of the Republicans...
 

abc123

Banned
Let's see:
It's going to be a short and possibly uneventful regency.
AFAIK the rotativism system in Portugal is still going to be exhausted so no long-term government is foreseeable.

And then the flaps of the wings of these butterflies are getting less and less predictable:

Does the young king eventually accept the less than democratic solution of João Franco? I guess so, it would be easy to sell to him that pretty much every other parliamentary solution has been tested... If he just reforms the election rules the monarchy would fare much better IMO.
Does a new Republican attempt take place? If João Franco or any other dictator is in charge, probably!
Will it be squashed? I guess.
Will a regicide attempt still take place? I guess, if not then, maybe later.
Will it succeed? It can go either way...
If the king is shot dead, would he be remembered purely as a martyr by the people or would the people have an ambivalent reaction to his demise? If it's the latter, not much will change from OTL. If it's the former, the Republican Party may lose its momentum.

IOTL in 1910 a simple skirmish in Lisbon installed the Republican regime in Portugal. No-one wanted to fight back and the regime change happened by default. I guess much of this inaction happened due to the perception of weakness of the regime: their failure to avoid a regicide, the popularity of the funeral of the killers, the growing electoral successes of the Republicans...


Can you explain to me just one thing, I see that in Portugal in period 1870s-1910s general elections were every year or two. Why? Because in many of these elections same Party ( usually Regeneradores ) wins several elections in row, usualy with allmost 2/3 majority, and then a year or two after that, new elections. Why?
 
Can you explain to me just one thing, I see that in Portugal in period 1870s-1910s general elections were every year or two. Why? Because in many of these elections same Party ( usually Regeneradores ) wins several elections in row, usualy with allmost 2/3 majority, and then a year or two after that, new elections. Why?

I do know that at times the PM would ask for the dissolution of the parliament to get a new majority and extend themselves. Can't say to what extent they were sure of the victory and TBH I don't know how the system of influences over the final electors worked but Portugal's democracy was flawed.
 

abc123

Banned
I do know that at times the PM would ask for the dissolution of the parliament to get a new majority and extend themselves. Can't say to what extent they were sure of the victory and TBH I don't know how the system of influences over the final electors worked but Portugal's democracy was flawed.

OK, I understand that, but it's a bit weird to ask for dissolution ( to get longer term ) after just a year from last elections...

IIRC, term for Parliament was 4 years...

I can understand that PM is asking for dissolution if he has some internal problems in his Government but the governments in the period were pretty homogenous majorities, they should be able to vote everything the PM wants...

I presume that the suffrage was limited by literacy and/or taxation requierments?
 
OK, I understand that, but it's a bit weird to ask for dissolution ( to get longer term ) after just a year from last elections...

IIRC, term for Parliament was 4 years...

I can understand that PM is asking for dissolution if he has some internal problems in his Government but the governments in the period were pretty homogenous majorities, they should be able to vote everything the PM wants...
You're right: it's weird. I punctually read about more than one dissolution forced by the government (and at least another forced by the king due to a scandal in the government) but I didn't analyze the systemic cause for all these dissolutions. Despite them all, until the turn of the century the system was perceived as functional.

I presume that the suffrage was limited by literacy and/or taxation requierments?
There were no literacy requirements but indeed there were restrictions based on the income of the citizen. The elections were indirect. The common citizen would elect the provincial electors and then they would (s)elect the MPs.
 

abc123

Banned
So, with Hintze Ribeiro as PM ITTL, I presume that he will resign because of new King/Regent, but what with new elections? Will he hold a new elections in October as OTL or the Regent will just ask him to form another Cabinet?

Also, what was that affair with tobacco at the time?:confused:
 
So, with Hintze Ribeiro as PM ITTL, I presume that he will resign because of new King/Regent, but what with new elections?
It's possible but there's not necessarily a precedent for that.
The elections scheduled after the OTL death of Carlos were because Manuel II (rightfully) held João Franco responsible for the regicide and fired him.
Those after the death of Luís were already scheduled before his death.
No early elections were held right after the deaths of Pedro V and Maria II nor after the end of the regency of Fernando II.

Also, what was that affair with tobacco at the time?:confused:
(checking...) A concession of the monopoly of the tobacco industry for a company was renewed in 1906 for 20 years more. The concessionary company had 70% of foreign capital. A lot saw that concession as ruinous for the state.
 

abc123

Banned
It's possible but there's not necessarily a precedent for that.
The elections scheduled after the OTL death of Carlos were because Manuel II (rightfully) held João Franco responsible for the regicide and fired him.
Those after the death of Luís were already scheduled before his death.
No early elections were held right after the deaths of Pedro V and Maria II nor after the end of the regency of Fernando II.


(checking...) A concession of the monopoly of the tobacco industry for a company was renewed in 1906 for 20 years more. The concessionary company had 70% of foreign capital. A lot saw that concession as ruinous for the state.

OK, thanks.

I also wonder, with death of King Carlos, would his brother Afonso go on scheduled state visit to London in November?
 
One obvious consequence would be that conditions for the impending 1908 Regicide would change.
Killing 21 year olds with a boyish face has a very different impact on the public opinion than killing middle aged fat kings, even before TV...
 
Can you explain to me just one thing, I see that in Portugal in period 1870s-1910s general elections were every year or two. Why? Because in many of these elections same Party ( usually Regeneradores ) wins several elections in row, usualy with allmost 2/3 majority, and then a year or two after that, new elections. Why?


In our country elections always were regard as a good oportunity to start a new round of job interviews. Party leaders could get rid of deputies they didn't like and "hire" new ones. Even if the same partie stays in power, the leader might be a new one with a new set of friends to have elected and relatives to be hired...
So the more elections the more chances you have to do some scheeming...:D
 

abc123

Banned
In our country elections always were regard as a good oportunity to start a new round of job interviews. Party leaders could get rid of deputies they didn't like and "hire" new ones. Even if the same partie stays in power, the leader might be a new one with a new set of friends to have elected and relatives to be hired...
So the more elections the more chances you have to do some scheeming...:D

Intresting...:D
 
IIRC, the elections during the constitutional monarchy were decided by patronage networks and it was also dependent on the king calling for new elections to get a different party in government.
 

abc123

Banned
IIRC, the elections during the constitutional monarchy were decided by patronage networks and it was also dependent on the king calling for new elections to get a different party in government.

And why King wanted another party in government?
 
And why King wanted another party in government?
I think it was to provide a semblance of alternance, because while at urban level they were different*, at rural level, it had more to do with machine politics, possibly a reason why when the monarchy fell, there was some apathy to its fall (even if later some monarchist politicians tried to rally support for a restoration by force of arms).

*you can think of the Regeneradores (Regenerators) and Progressistas (Progressives) as rough approximations of the OTL contemporary British Conservative and Liberal, in the cities.
 

abc123

Banned
OK, but who was the most important decision-maker in Portugal at the time? King? Prime Minister?
 
OK, but who was the most important decision-maker in Portugal at the time? King? Prime Minister?
I'm not a constitutionalist, but based on the Constitution of 1826 (with the Additional Act of 1826), that was in effect during most of the Constitutional Monarchy, the King had considerable powers, maybe it could be considered more important than the Parliament (it could veto laws, and nominate the Ministers, and the president and vice-president of the lower house of parliament).
 

abc123

Banned
I'm not a constitutionalist, but based on the Constitution of 1826 (with the Additional Act of 1826), that was in effect during most of the Constitutional Monarchy, the King had considerable powers, maybe it could be considered more important than the Parliament (it could veto laws, and nominate the Ministers, and the president and vice-president of the lower house of parliament).


But, was the Prime Minister a man of King's confidence or a man of Cortes confidence?:confused:
 
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