Effects of an accidental nuclear detonation?

Tom Colton · Aug 28, 2015

In the 1983 Bond film "Octopussy", the main villain, General Orlov, plots to [SPOILERS FOR A 32-YEAR OLD MOVIE] detonate a Soviet warhead smuggled into a circus show being conducted in a U.S. Air Force base in West Germany, claiming the effects would be indistinguishable from a medium-sized American bomb. He assumes that the fallout (literal and figurative) would lead to unilateral nuclear disarmament (at least on the continent), leaving Europe wide open for his "Red Storm Rising" fantasies.

Let's say that for whatever reason (not necessarily the above, but the effects thereof) a warhead somehow accidentally detonated in vaguely similar circumstances. What would actually happen?

jsb · Aug 28, 2015

Cant the US analyse the fall out and then get very angry when it doesn't match the samples from US labs, but its much closer to samples caught by airborne sampling missions after soviet tests ?

NCW8 · Aug 28, 2015

Tom Colton said:
In the 1983 Bond film "Octopussy", the main villain, General Orlov, plots to [SPOILERS FOR A 32-YEAR OLD MOVIE] detonate a Soviet warhead smuggled into a circus show being conducted in a U.S. Air Force base in West Germany, claiming the effects would be indistinguishable from a medium-sized American bomb. He assumes that the fallout (literal and figurative) would lead to unilateral nuclear disarmament (at least on the continent), leaving Europe wide open for his "Red Storm Rising" fantasies.

Interesting that The Fourth Protocol was actually published the year after this film.

jsb said:
Cant the US analyse the fall out and then get very angry when it doesn't match the samples from US labs, but its much closer to samples caught by airborne sampling missions after soviet tests ?

But would the general public (particularly in Germany) believe them ?

Cheers,
Nigel.

trurle · Aug 28, 2015

jsb said:
Cant the US analyse the fall out and then get very angry when it doesn't match the samples from US labs, but its much closer to samples caught by airborne sampling missions after soviet tests ?

I doubt the identification possible after ground-level explosion. A lot of materials from around got irradiated and smear a composition signatures. Isotopic signatures like iron isotopes from bomb shell may point to place of origin, but in circus featuring a fancy equipment and people from around globe..these signatures may mean anything. From Ukrainian steel in shell to bomb handler eating tomatoes from Australia.

The political effect is likely to be very small though. Immediately, it will be declared an accidental explosion of anti-soviet nuclear mine, the runaway of secret Nazis reactor everybody forgot about, or even natural gas explosion in the nuclear waste dumping site. US and West Germany officials will know they did not order to detonate anything. The commissions will count the nuclear charges and after the count matches, the diplomatic pressure will be done to the uncounted parties like Soviets, China, India and everybody else. The least cooperative party will be held responsible after may be a 50 years arbitration. Politics is tough, not for hysterics

RodentRevolution · Aug 28, 2015

trurle said:
I doubt the identification possible after ground-level explosion. A lot of materials from around got irradiated and smear a composition signatures. Isotopic signatures like iron isotopes from bomb shell may point to place of origin, but in circus featuring a fancy equipment and people from around globe..these signatures may mean anything. From Ukrainian steel in shell to bomb handler eating tomatoes from Australia.

The political effect is likely to be very small though. Immediately, it will be declared an accidental explosion of anti-soviet nuclear mine, the runaway of secret Nazis reactor everybody forgot about, or even natural gas explosion in the nuclear waste dumping site. US and West Germany officials will know they did not order to detonate anything. The commissions will count the nuclear charges and after the count matches, the diplomatic pressure will be done to the uncounted parties like Soviets, China, India and everybody else. The least cooperative party will be held responsible after may be a 50 years arbitration. Politics is tough, not for hysterics

So in about 2040 the world invades North Korea...because somebody must be held accountable! (and nobody who turned up to the meeting wants it to be them)

Sounds good

MrGreyOwl · Aug 28, 2015

Yes if it's not a plot by nefarious commies but a honest accident? Like one of the several crashes of plane carrying nuclear weapons:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Yuba_City_B-52_crash

or

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Goldsboro_B-52_crash

alexcoppo · Aug 28, 2015

In 1983 it might easily trigger WWIII.

Tovarich · Aug 28, 2015

NCW8 said:
Interesting that The Fourth Protocol was actually published the year after this film.

Hey, don't knock that book, Mrs Thatcher admitted to reading it at least twice.
Indeed, it was probably knocked off by Freddie Forsythe in an afternoon just because it was slightly less embarrassing to have a book (any book) as the basis for UK defence posture rather than a Bond film.

RanulfC · Aug 28, 2015

MrGreyOwl said:
Yes if it's not a plot by nefarious commies but a honest accident? Like one of the several crashes of plane carrying nuclear weapons:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Yuba_City_B-52_crash

or

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Goldsboro_B-52_crash

You reinforce the main point of no one believing it could be an "accident" in the first place. A lot has to happen in a certain order for a nuke to initiate, hell the procedure for blowing them in place (in case your over run) is to use a shape charge on them to disrupt the bomb materials without detonation.

In this case "accidents" don't happen.

Randy