OK, it's a light-hearted question from a friend of mine
As it was a joke, it wasn't "built" strongly. But we both agree to post it here to see what you think.
- May 7, 1954: Viet Minh (short for "Viet Nam Doc lap Dong minh hoi" or "The league for the Independence of Viet Nam) defeat the French garrison at Dien Bien Phu right before Geneva Meeting.
Note: It was the first time that an army of a colony was able to flush out an army of the "boss nation"
- July 27, 1954: Geneva Accord was signed (However, as I remember, State of Viet Nam [predecessor of South Viet Nam] and USA did NOT signe it. Hence, [technically,] they didn't have to follow it)
The final accord can be found here: http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/inch005.asp
- Oct 1955: Ngo Dinh Diem, a Catholic, anti-Communist, anti-French and pro-US, held a referendum. State of Viet Nam officially had no king and it later named "Republic of Viet Nam". However, it was later found out that Diem cheated. He soon neutralized many threats for his nation
- 1959: The "trail" was initiated by DRVN. Later, this trail played a vital role as "Ho Chi Minh Trail"
- Dec 1960: Mặt trận Giải phóng dân tộc miền Nam Việt Nam (National Liberation Front, well-known as "Viet Cong" was formed). They put emphasize on "the withdrawal of American advisors and influence, on land reform and liberalization of the GVN, on coalition government and the neutralization of Vietnam". From this point on, the "Resistance War against Imperialist American" if fully united
- Jan 1963: Ap Bac battle. Even though Army of RVN completed their task, they suffered hgher casualites (despite the fact that they outnumber, outgun, and out-tech their enemy)
- Nov 1963: Coup. Diem and his brother (advisor) were killed. CIA is suspected to involve. An unstable time for RVN began
- Aug 2 and 4, 1964 : Gulf of Tonkin incident. USA quickly used the (fake) attack (on the second day) to begin bombardment by air force on DRVN (see below)
- 8 March, 1965: First batch of US Marines landed on Da Nang. USA officially joined the ground battle on Viet Nam.
Soon, allies also sent their troops into Viet Nam. Operation Rolling Thunder was deployed to attack the North while Arclight saw B-52s bombers attacking positions in the South.
- 1967: Nguyen Van Thieu hold power after defeating others opponents
- Dec 1967: Khe Sanh - Route 9 was besieged. US generals believed that they were seeing another "Dien Bien Phu". How wrong they were
- Jan 30 and 31, 1968: Tet Offensive (1st Phase). Despite surprising the entire army, NLF failed to capture major cities, coup the RVN government as their main force was unable to get in and help their special forces.
The only major success was in Hue. However, over 5000 citizens were found death. It is considered that ~3000 of them were under "communist" [NLF] hands. Either through massacre or "miss fire". No one knows the exact answer..
The 2nd and 3rd Phase (or Wave) took place in May and August respectively, with limited success.
Despite this, the tide was turned: US public began to doubt the war progress in Viet Nam, anti-war movements gradually got stronger. Precisely what DRVN wanted.
- 1969: US President Nixon announced "Vietnamization". Negotiation began. But only crap talk happened
- 1970: War spread to Cambodia. Pro-US PM Lol Nol deposed Sihanouk who is playing with both sides. PAVN (both "NVA" and "VC") support Pol Pot at this point
- Feb 1971: South Viet Nam launch Lam Son 719, aiming to disrupt the Trail. Leak of intel, fierce resistance... pushed them back in chaos. Until this day, the photos taken there are still used as joke by some youngster who support PAVN in the war
- March 30 and October 22, 1972: Easter Offensive (officially known in Viet Nam as Chiến dịch Xuân hè 1972 or Spring-Summer Operation 1972). PAVN quickly gained land, and if USAF didn't intervene, they could beat the crap out of RVN.
Operation Linebacker inflict heavy casualties on PAVN. However, PAVN gained a good position in South Viet Nam and on negotiation table
- Dec 18 to 29, 1972: Operation Linebacker II, also known as Christmas Bombing. B-52s were used on large scale to attack the North. Both sides claimed victory (though lost varies - and it seems the negotiation resulted in a better way for DRVN)
- Jan 27, 1973: Paris Peace Accord was signed by all 4 sides. It is said that some threaten was used to force South Viet Nam to sign this
The agreement can be read here: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Paris_Peace_Accords
- 1974: Watergate incident in USA. It is confirmed that there would be no more US support for South Viet Nam
- Spring 1975: "Test attack" by PAVN. They realized they can win the war within 1 year without worrying about USA
Apr 1975: After liberating Central Highland and coastline in less than a month (March), PAVN ready themselves for the final push. Political tumor happens. President Thieu resigned even though he promised to stay a few days earlier
Even though Army of RVN stood up, they failed to stop PAVN. But they did bring quite a damage on advancing PAVN.
30 Apr: Fall of Sai Gon - with chaos. On 11:30, the flag of NLF was raised at Independence Palace, a few hours later, President Duong Van Minh radio boardcast the unconditional surrender.
- 6 May 1975: Fully united the country under one banner
So, based on these events, which events - if happens differently - can bring victory to Republic of Viet Nam (South Viet Nam) and failure to Democratic Republic of Viet Nam (North Viet Nam). And what would happen today if such a thing happen?
Chào thân ái và quyết thắng
Best regards and may victory is in your favor
What would happen if South Viet Nam won the Vietnam War?
As it was a joke, it wasn't "built" strongly. But we both agree to post it here to see what you think.
-------------------------------------
Also, as a Vietnamese, I'll introduce some "key time" so that you can use to "alternate the history"- May 7, 1954: Viet Minh (short for "Viet Nam Doc lap Dong minh hoi" or "The league for the Independence of Viet Nam) defeat the French garrison at Dien Bien Phu right before Geneva Meeting.
Note: It was the first time that an army of a colony was able to flush out an army of the "boss nation"
- July 27, 1954: Geneva Accord was signed (However, as I remember, State of Viet Nam [predecessor of South Viet Nam] and USA did NOT signe it. Hence, [technically,] they didn't have to follow it)
The final accord can be found here: http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/inch005.asp
- Oct 1955: Ngo Dinh Diem, a Catholic, anti-Communist, anti-French and pro-US, held a referendum. State of Viet Nam officially had no king and it later named "Republic of Viet Nam". However, it was later found out that Diem cheated. He soon neutralized many threats for his nation
- 1959: The "trail" was initiated by DRVN. Later, this trail played a vital role as "Ho Chi Minh Trail"
- Dec 1960: Mặt trận Giải phóng dân tộc miền Nam Việt Nam (National Liberation Front, well-known as "Viet Cong" was formed). They put emphasize on "the withdrawal of American advisors and influence, on land reform and liberalization of the GVN, on coalition government and the neutralization of Vietnam". From this point on, the "Resistance War against Imperialist American" if fully united
- Jan 1963: Ap Bac battle. Even though Army of RVN completed their task, they suffered hgher casualites (despite the fact that they outnumber, outgun, and out-tech their enemy)
- Nov 1963: Coup. Diem and his brother (advisor) were killed. CIA is suspected to involve. An unstable time for RVN began
- Aug 2 and 4, 1964 : Gulf of Tonkin incident. USA quickly used the (fake) attack (on the second day) to begin bombardment by air force on DRVN (see below)
- 8 March, 1965: First batch of US Marines landed on Da Nang. USA officially joined the ground battle on Viet Nam.
Soon, allies also sent their troops into Viet Nam. Operation Rolling Thunder was deployed to attack the North while Arclight saw B-52s bombers attacking positions in the South.
- 1967: Nguyen Van Thieu hold power after defeating others opponents
- Dec 1967: Khe Sanh - Route 9 was besieged. US generals believed that they were seeing another "Dien Bien Phu". How wrong they were
- Jan 30 and 31, 1968: Tet Offensive (1st Phase). Despite surprising the entire army, NLF failed to capture major cities, coup the RVN government as their main force was unable to get in and help their special forces.
The only major success was in Hue. However, over 5000 citizens were found death. It is considered that ~3000 of them were under "communist" [NLF] hands. Either through massacre or "miss fire". No one knows the exact answer..
The 2nd and 3rd Phase (or Wave) took place in May and August respectively, with limited success.
Despite this, the tide was turned: US public began to doubt the war progress in Viet Nam, anti-war movements gradually got stronger. Precisely what DRVN wanted.
- 1969: US President Nixon announced "Vietnamization". Negotiation began. But only crap talk happened
- 1970: War spread to Cambodia. Pro-US PM Lol Nol deposed Sihanouk who is playing with both sides. PAVN (both "NVA" and "VC") support Pol Pot at this point
- Feb 1971: South Viet Nam launch Lam Son 719, aiming to disrupt the Trail. Leak of intel, fierce resistance... pushed them back in chaos. Until this day, the photos taken there are still used as joke by some youngster who support PAVN in the war
- March 30 and October 22, 1972: Easter Offensive (officially known in Viet Nam as Chiến dịch Xuân hè 1972 or Spring-Summer Operation 1972). PAVN quickly gained land, and if USAF didn't intervene, they could beat the crap out of RVN.
Operation Linebacker inflict heavy casualties on PAVN. However, PAVN gained a good position in South Viet Nam and on negotiation table
- Dec 18 to 29, 1972: Operation Linebacker II, also known as Christmas Bombing. B-52s were used on large scale to attack the North. Both sides claimed victory (though lost varies - and it seems the negotiation resulted in a better way for DRVN)
- Jan 27, 1973: Paris Peace Accord was signed by all 4 sides. It is said that some threaten was used to force South Viet Nam to sign this
The agreement can be read here: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Paris_Peace_Accords
- 1974: Watergate incident in USA. It is confirmed that there would be no more US support for South Viet Nam
- Spring 1975: "Test attack" by PAVN. They realized they can win the war within 1 year without worrying about USA
Apr 1975: After liberating Central Highland and coastline in less than a month (March), PAVN ready themselves for the final push. Political tumor happens. President Thieu resigned even though he promised to stay a few days earlier
Even though Army of RVN stood up, they failed to stop PAVN. But they did bring quite a damage on advancing PAVN.
30 Apr: Fall of Sai Gon - with chaos. On 11:30, the flag of NLF was raised at Independence Palace, a few hours later, President Duong Van Minh radio boardcast the unconditional surrender.
- 6 May 1975: Fully united the country under one banner
-------------------------------------
Then, it's war against Cambodia and China
-------------------------------------
Then, it's war against Cambodia and China
-------------------------------------
So, based on these events, which events - if happens differently - can bring victory to Republic of Viet Nam (South Viet Nam) and failure to Democratic Republic of Viet Nam (North Viet Nam). And what would happen today if such a thing happen?
Chào thân ái và quyết thắng
Best regards and may victory is in your favor
Oh, and by the way, "Nothing is more valuable than freedom and independence"
