Filipinos wins the Philippine–American War
- Thread starter Historyman 14
- Start date
TFSmith121
Banned
How, exactly?
The Filipino nationalists were factionalized, had no outside sponsor or source of supplies, and the US Navy controlled the sea - and the Philippines is an archipelago.
Likewise, the US, despite some opposition at home, was able to mobilize a significant expeditionary force, sustain it, and recruit locally (Macabebe Scouts, Philippine Scouts, Philippine Constabulary, etc.) to a significant degree.
Sort of hard to see the point of departure, frankly.
Best,
The Filipino nationalists were factionalized, had no outside sponsor or source of supplies, and the US Navy controlled the sea - and the Philippines is an archipelago.
Likewise, the US, despite some opposition at home, was able to mobilize a significant expeditionary force, sustain it, and recruit locally (Macabebe Scouts, Philippine Scouts, Philippine Constabulary, etc.) to a significant degree.
Sort of hard to see the point of departure, frankly.
Best,
Well, what if the Filipino nationalists was not factionalized? Or maybe they keep Luzon?
TFSmith121
Banned
Luzon remains an island...
Luzon remains an island, with an agricultural economy, in 1899...
What I'm getting at, is what is the end state you want for your POD? An independent Republic of the Phillipines before 1946?
Best,
Luzon remains an island, with an agricultural economy, in 1899...
What I'm getting at, is what is the end state you want for your POD? An independent Republic of the Phillipines before 1946?
Best,
Yes. I would like to see the Phillipines become it's own nation, not a American territory, after the Spanish–American War. I thought the Philippine–American War would be a good place for a POD.
TFSmith121
Banned
Sure - there are a couple obvious ones:
1. Filipino nationalists rise in enough strength that they can take Manila in '98, before the US expeditionary force arrives - this is POD from history, which because the Spanish surrendered to the US, the US had a significant advantage from Day 1 of the P-A conflict;
2. Japanese attack the Spanish anytime from 1895-1897; this would be an interesting point of departure, since the IJN-IJA were obviously capable enough (as witness the results of the Sino-Japanese War) but the outcome is uncertain - a Philippine puppet state under the Japanese Empire is more likely than an independent republic;
3. Filipinos rise at any point from early Nineteenth Century (same time as the Latin American revolutions) to as late as the 1880s (before Japan is in place as a Western Pacific power); the issue there is whether the Filipinos can win independence and survive as such through a post-independence period of national consolidation; there are very real divides among Filipinos, by caste, religion, and a half-dozen other criteria (including geography - northern Luzon doesn't have a lot in common with Palawan even today), and the fact that the British, French, Spanish, and Dutch are all still imperial powers at the time.
My guess is an early-Nineteenth Century rebellion against Spain, presumably with the same sort of British (and/or US) support that was seen historically for the Latin American revolutionaries against French-controlled Spain is probably the best chance for a lasting indepedent PI, although even there geography is tough...multiple successor states (Luzon-Visayas, Mindanao-Palawan, etc.) is certainly possible.
There are a couple of versions of Option 3 floating around on the board.
Best,
1. Filipino nationalists rise in enough strength that they can take Manila in '98, before the US expeditionary force arrives - this is POD from history, which because the Spanish surrendered to the US, the US had a significant advantage from Day 1 of the P-A conflict;
2. Japanese attack the Spanish anytime from 1895-1897; this would be an interesting point of departure, since the IJN-IJA were obviously capable enough (as witness the results of the Sino-Japanese War) but the outcome is uncertain - a Philippine puppet state under the Japanese Empire is more likely than an independent republic;
3. Filipinos rise at any point from early Nineteenth Century (same time as the Latin American revolutions) to as late as the 1880s (before Japan is in place as a Western Pacific power); the issue there is whether the Filipinos can win independence and survive as such through a post-independence period of national consolidation; there are very real divides among Filipinos, by caste, religion, and a half-dozen other criteria (including geography - northern Luzon doesn't have a lot in common with Palawan even today), and the fact that the British, French, Spanish, and Dutch are all still imperial powers at the time.
My guess is an early-Nineteenth Century rebellion against Spain, presumably with the same sort of British (and/or US) support that was seen historically for the Latin American revolutionaries against French-controlled Spain is probably the best chance for a lasting indepedent PI, although even there geography is tough...multiple successor states (Luzon-Visayas, Mindanao-Palawan, etc.) is certainly possible.
There are a couple of versions of Option 3 floating around on the board.
Best,
TFSmith121
Banned
YAQW...the Phillippines has a fascinating history;
In some ways, the PI, Australia, and New Zealand have more in common than the PI, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam...
The PI is not a "settler culture" in the sense that Australia and New Zealand are, but is certainly more of a syncretic culture, a mix of Europe/America (U.S.) and the Western Pacific, than any of the other neighboring nation/states are...
The results of the Spanish and American influences are certainly problematic, but the flip side is a Philippine Archipelago without the Spanish and American influences would look very different today.
Not necessarily better, not necessarily worse, but certainly different.
Best,
In some ways, the PI, Australia, and New Zealand have more in common than the PI, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam...
The PI is not a "settler culture" in the sense that Australia and New Zealand are, but is certainly more of a syncretic culture, a mix of Europe/America (U.S.) and the Western Pacific, than any of the other neighboring nation/states are...
The results of the Spanish and American influences are certainly problematic, but the flip side is a Philippine Archipelago without the Spanish and American influences would look very different today.
Not necessarily better, not necessarily worse, but certainly different.
Best,
Short of an ASB, the Filipino revolutionaries would never have beat the US off the Philippines.
Driftless
Donor
If the US was "in it to win it" in that era, it would seem highly unlikely that the Filipinos oust the Americans. Too much comparative fire-power and other resources.
If the Filipinos could have resolved their factional differences and came through with an organized assymetrical war plan, playing for the long game, could they have worn down US resolve over time, say across more than one administration?
William Jennings Bryan, Mark Twain, & company get more public supprt for ending the war?
If the Filipinos could have resolved their factional differences and came through with an organized assymetrical war plan, playing for the long game, could they have worn down US resolve over time, say across more than one administration?
William Jennings Bryan, Mark Twain, & company get more public supprt for ending the war?
Yeah, the best POD here would seem to be in the US, and political, rather than military. In particular, a US that decides not to annex the Philippines in the first place, but instead to go for a Cuba-like solution (nominally independent, de facto US puppet, with a permanent military base). Which could probably work (the US would still have goodwill from helping liberate the Philippines in the first place, and other nations could easily look more threatening to Filipino independence), although you'd need a different US government at the time. Such a POD would avoid the war entirely.
Red Horse
Before the war even started, Aguinaldo's government had already thought of the possibility of negotiating with the US for protectorate status. But that might butterfly the war.
So your best bet would be: prevent Antonio Luna's death. Put him in charge of the revolutionary army, and have these guys hold larger commands:
- Manuel Tinio
- Licerio Geronimo
- Simeon Ola
- Juan Cailles
- José Alejandrino
- Santiago Alvarez
This might increase the chances of victory. Heck, with enough luck, the war would grind down into a Vietnam scenario.
Just my 2 cents, though.
So your best bet would be: prevent Antonio Luna's death. Put him in charge of the revolutionary army, and have these guys hold larger commands:
- Manuel Tinio
- Licerio Geronimo
- Simeon Ola
- Juan Cailles
- José Alejandrino
- Santiago Alvarez
This might increase the chances of victory. Heck, with enough luck, the war would grind down into a Vietnam scenario.
Just my 2 cents, though.
I don't think vietnam was possible without modern war reporting. The revolutionaries could hide in the village because the army cannot attack the villagers.
TFSmith121
Banned
Not sure I'd call Vietnam "lucky" for anyone concerned,
Not sure I'd call Vietnam "lucky" for anyone concerned, on all sides.
As it was, the Philippine "Insurrection" was pretty brutal all around - look up Samar, for example.
If the nationalists could have prevailed against the Spanish militarily before the US expeditionary force hove to in Manila Bay in 1898, the situation would have changed to somethhing more analogous to Cuba.
Best,
Not sure I'd call Vietnam "lucky" for anyone concerned, on all sides.
As it was, the Philippine "Insurrection" was pretty brutal all around - look up Samar, for example.
If the nationalists could have prevailed against the Spanish militarily before the US expeditionary force hove to in Manila Bay in 1898, the situation would have changed to somethhing more analogous to Cuba.
Best,
There is no way the Filipinos can win with a PoD 1898.
PoD 1898 means Aguinaldo is the President. He trusts the Americans too much. The only place that the Americans control after the Spanish American war was the walled city of Manila.
Taking control of Manila before more American troops arrive. 11,000 American soldiers is more tolerable than 100-200k American soldiers. You also had tens of thousands of Filipinos living in Manila which can be used for surprise attack from within. However, an attack on intramuros too early will not happen under Aguinaldo's watch. He's too incompetent and too gullible for western standards.
The easiest way to do this is to prevent the Philippine-American war by taking Manila before the Americans. No Manila means no place to drop off the American troops unharrassed.
No way Luna can overwhelm those odds. Vs the Spanish, Luna would be excellent. However, vs the Americans, the resources and the situation that Philippines had was too low compared to the Americans. Philppines had like 10-20,000 regulars, with 100-200k militias, 10-20k rifles against 100-200k regular American troops with unlimited supplies. Vs Spain those Philippine resources were sufficient, But vs the Americans, who keeps on landing troops and supplies unharassed, that aint sufficient regardless of how competent Luna was as a general.
David S Poepoe
Banned
Stand, Gentlemen, he served on Samar!
By chance I was just thinking about General 'Howling' Jake Smith. I wish someone would write a biography about him.
By chance I was just thinking about General 'Howling' Jake Smith. I wish someone would write a biography about him.
Luna needed to coordinate with the best commanders available, like Geronimo and Tinio. And probably prevent Bugallon's death.
And then what? With the resources you have and the situation you are in, it is already an impossibility.
You are running out ammo and rifles every battle you lose. Your opponent just keep pouring in professional soldiers and supplies. The only way an opponent with less resources is to win every battle and prevent enemy reinforcements.
Putting a winnable situation for the Philippines would require an earlier PoD. An earlier PoD that gives Philippines sufficient organization and resources would butterfly the Philippine-American war. If you put Philippine organization, resources sufficient to beat USA, you can beatdown Spain with no sweat which means earlier rebellions vs Spain would have been successful.
You need unified leadership in the Philipoine military, with an option of using guerilla tactics earlier than OTL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBAS7l8WHtg
most of the katipunan leadership should have this mind set from the start of 1896...
most of the katipunan leadership should have this mind set from the start of 1896...