In 1914, Franz Ferdinand didn't want war. Conrad and Berchtold were his men, so, there will be no Austro-Hungarian war party.
Without the certainty of A-H involvement, the Germans will not move either.
By late 1914/early 1915, Moltke will be forced to scrap the so-called Schlieffen-Plan; Belgian armed forces expansion and Russian armaments programmes will require him to come up with something new, because Schlieffen's idea of fighting a two-front war by breaking it up into two one-front wars fought in sequence is no longer feasible.
After the delivery of the two British built dreadnoughts to the Ottoman Empire, the Russian window of opportunity for provoking a general European war for getting control of the Bosporus Straits will close as well.
This said, the probability of war will decrease until at least 1917, if not 1918. By then, FF will be emperor - and may have changed his mind, as the Serbian provocation will not have gone away, and a jolly war may be considered ideal to distract from domestic strife (which was neigh inevitable with FF).
The German and Russian armament programmes will have advanced considerably (including the HSF).
So, perhaps summer of 1918 - or 1919 - would be a good time for an alternative Great War.