Pres. Carter highly effective in his first term (5 or fewer changes)

1) The Shah of Iran steps down in a relatively peaceful transition of power, and even around 40% of Iranian citizens still think he's an alright guy. This one rather falls into our lap, but the U.S. still gets some credit. President Carter skillfully downplays the credit and instead praises both the Shah and the new generation of leaders.

2) The water projects. Ah, yes, President Carter and the water projects. And some of them probably were boondoggles. But some members of Congress really took this hard, and then when Carter later reversed himself in a compromise, other members who had stuck out their necks felt really let down. The whole situation was a mess. In a ATL, maybe Mondale catches Carter in non-stubborn mood sometime between election and inauguration, and they anticipate some of this and make a plan which largely works.

3) . . .

4) . . .

your turn please

GeographyDude said:

1) The Shah of Iran steps down in a relatively peaceful transition of power, and even around 40% of Iranian citizens still think he's an alright guy. This one rather falls into our lap, but the U.S. still gets some credit. President Carter skillfully downplays the credit and instead praises both the Shah and the new generation of leaders.


your turn please

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The Shah steeping down is hard to do, for the simple the fact that the shah is not going to step down. By 1977 it was becoming too far gone to preserve the Shah in power. The options were to have a crackdown/military coup which would have gotten very ugly, or B putting pressure on him to go. If you put press on him to go there is an issue of a shortage of people able to take over and the military lacking the ability to control the country. Even if a friendly regime is put in charge there will still be an increase in oil prices due to the sheer instability among the oil workers at the refineries.
3). . . Not hiring Bert Lance to run the Office of Management and Budget, the scandal cost Carter a lot of clout and political capital

4). . . Kennedy or Carter conceding on healthcare reform, with Carter having a more ambitious program of Kennedy settling for an intermediate less costly program.

Appoint someone more hawkish on inflation to head the Federal Reserve instead of G. William Miller. Perhaps an earlier Volcker tenure.

What if the Shah dies of natural causes a year or two early?

Bert Lance was a friend, ever since Jimmy's first unsuccessful run for Georgia governor in 1966. The two men even prayed together. And it may have been the case that Bert usually took a good practical approach to balance Jimmy's more idealistic, visionary approach. In a timeline about John Connally remaining a Democrat, I suggested that if Connally had been Carter's Treasury Secretary, he would have also been available to provide a practical voice within the administration. Sometimes an idealistic, visionary approach very much plays to strength, and sometimes it doesn't. And interesting, I think Reagan also had a lot of this same visionary approach.

I think the things Bert was accused of with the Georgia bank were relatively minor, and I may be in the minority saying this. (also the issue that Carter publicly stated a very high standard on numerous occasions during his campaign)

But all in all I tend to think that Jimmy Carter's first term may have gone much better if Bert had been able to remain part of the team.

1) A larger Camp David accords which result in a dramatic reduction in tension in the Middle East.
2) Better handling of the economic crisis of his presidency.
3) Keeping his brother Billy far away from a camera - and away from Libya.
4) Not bringing Bert Lance in his administration.

And with stagflation, regarding whether we want to focus primarily on reducing inflation or on addressing unemployment, well, it's a mix of course, probably 70% one direction, 30% the other. Now, I personally want to lean toward addressing the unemployment side, and I know I'm in a minority on this one!

3) An advisor talks him out of the Sweater Speech

4) Operation Eagle Claw works and the hostages are rescued.

Dunning Kruger said:

3) An advisor talks him out of the Sweater Speech

4) Operation Eagle Claw works and the hostages are rescued.

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Contrary to popular belief, that speech was a huge success. Firing the cabinet a few days later tanked those numbers and undermined the message he was espousing. So...he should give the speech and then not fire the cabinet.

And if we're going to have any kind of late 70s wank, we've got to prevent the Cambodian genocide. As well as the separate genocide in East Timor which, although not on as big a scale, was still really bad, and in OTL we supported the invading country Indonesia because they were a cold war ally, and that has to go differently.

Now, with Cambodia, regarding the statement that the American public was already sick and tied of war in '75-'79. They were for nebulous purposes. But the public easily and readily backed military action to rescue the crew of the Mayaguez in May of '75.

And so, President Carter might invite senior Congressional leaders to the White House. He asks a senior Pentagon or CIA official to briefly share information and also to emphasize what is not known. He might ask an older Senator or Representative to speak (planned and requested ahead of time), say who was around age 35 at the end of WWII and who remembers a number of public commitments from a variety of leaders to never again allow genocide.

And Carter wouldn't speak that much. He might say that he'd like to have a decision in a week or two if possible. He's understanding of the constraints Congress operates under, and throughout he is an effective low-key leader. Almost the Tao approach of action through inaction, but members of Congress knows that he favors military intervention. He's rather letting the burden fall to them, that each member of Congress needs to make a decision in a real human situation.

And it might be the method of buffer armies rather than an army of occupation.

President Carter is certainly going to keep the Soviet Union informed and place a courtesy call to Brehznev, might even invite the Soviets to participate in joint peacekeeping. And then, Jimmy might face the challenging of bringing expectations of his fellow citizens back to Earth, that this is a single joint project in response to an emergency situation, that we have very different systems, that there is perhaps a limit of how often or how well we can work together, etc.

1 Have him develop a better working relationship with Congress. He signs all the water projects bills. We see a much better energy package.
2 Burt Lance is elected governor in 1974. He does not serve in the Carter Administration.
3 Operation Eagle Claw gets all the hostages home safely.
4 He does not reshuffle the cabinet after the Malaise speech. He campaigns for his energy package instead.
5 He appoints Paul Volker in 1977.

If the Shah flees to the US have Carter send him right back as a symbol of support for the Iranian Revolution by the US...............

I think speeding up the Shah;s death is the best way to avoid the hostage crisis. Have him too sick to escape and die quickly in 1979.