I am not asking for whether the Serbian government ordering the assassination of FF is plausible or not(let's just assume they were stupidly enough to do it),I just want to ask how would the great powers act differently if the Serbian Government really did assassinate FF and there's evidence beyond reasonable doubt that they really did it?
WI:The Serbian government really did assassinate Franz Ferdinand?
- Thread starter Avrorrange
- Start date
If it was a known fact (which would basically require Serbia itself to officially claim responsibility), even Russia would stand aside while A-H did what needed to be done. Serbia would be conquered and the Serbian leadership that had not fled the country would be tried, convicted, and executed by an Austro-Hungarian military tribunal. No WW1. At least in August 1914
Tough to say. Certainly the Austrians behave little differently. Probably no precipitous Russian mobilization in response, but as the campaign ground on in Serbia, the Franco-Russians would soon start to forget the trigger of the war and concentrate on the fighting in Serbia, where Austrian troops would be committing atrocities and such. The temper in Russia would presumably be rising all through the fall of 1914.
Wouldn't Germany be sending troops to help the Austro-Hungarians though?I'd also like to see how the Italians wiggle themselves out of the Triple Alliance this time.
Why? If all they are fighting is Serbia what do they need Germany for? Serbia gets squashed flat.
The Alliance.The more troops the better.I am willing to bet that Wilhem II would at least send some contingents to Serbia as a signal of support,given his personal relationship with the late Franz Ferdinand.It would also basically tell other powers to f#$k off and not exploit the situation.
I don't know if A-H even would want them, it makes them somewhat beholden to Germany.
Uhura's Mazda
Banned
What would Austria-Hungary do with Serbia once they'd won? Administrate it as a joint condominium or reinstate some random Obrenovic and hope for the best?
They might want to have this one though.It's clearly a bigger nuisance to have a foreign nation where one of your minorities are in charge.
abc123
Banned
Serbians ( and for that matter, Croats, Slovaks, Czechs etc. ) were not minority in A-H - because Austrians and Hungarians were not the majority.
That scenario would be close to ASB...not because of the Serbian government would have to be different/stupid enough to order the assassination (that's unlikely but not impossible), but because they would pretty much have to officially brag about to create "evidence beyond reasonable doubt".
In any case, let's assume it (somehow) happened. The Entente great powers would most likely be forced to stand aside and let A-H invade Serbia and possibly Montenegro, so there might be no continent-wide war. Although Vienna will be under considerable pressure from the Entente to keep its war goals and the scale of the intervention minimal. So the situation could still escalate into WWI if A-H doesn't rein in its ambitions.
In any case, let's assume it (somehow) happened. The Entente great powers would most likely be forced to stand aside and let A-H invade Serbia and possibly Montenegro, so there might be no continent-wide war. Although Vienna will be under considerable pressure from the Entente to keep its war goals and the scale of the intervention minimal. So the situation could still escalate into WWI if A-H doesn't rein in its ambitions.
The Italians excelled at wiggling, which is why the Austrians gave up on them.
In terms of the German options, you're skirting at a great historical what if. Which is, if the Austrians had spent decently on their army before the war so that they had, say, 75 well trained and equipped divisions, and if the Germans had remained neutral but disposed their finances, industry and 'volunteers' in order to assist Austria to a level beyond Russia's industry, could the Austrians have fought a solo war with Russia that didn't end in defeat?
While its unlikely that the Serbian government would have ever directly ordered such an assassination, it wouldn't be that hard to have evidence come to light that directly linked the Black hand with Serbia. Have evidence come to light (surviving papers or something like that) linking ranking Serbian generals and/or politicians with the upper echelons of the Black hand, enough to show that the terrorist organization took orders form part of the Serbian government.
Russia would be hard pressed to support regicides and would have to back down. Austria-Hungary, supported by Germany and possibly Italy (would a government backed assassination be considered aggression enough to trigger the triple alliance?) would invade and occupy Serbia (and possibly Montenegro). A new government and probably dynasty (possibly a branch of the Habsburgs) would be installed in one or both of the Serb states with limits placed on the military and probably on diplomatic ties to Russia.
This would be a major diplomatic victory for the Triple alliance and yet another show of weakness for Russian foreign policy, basically establishing permanent Austro-German influence in the Balkans (Romania and Bulgaria were fairly Pro-German, Greece was neutral and Albania a nonentity). However, long-term this would no doubt cause problems between the Entente and Triple alliance and could potentially push the Ottoman empire into an alliance with Britain and France (a fear of becoming dominated by Austria-Hungary and Germany).
On the other hand, with Yugoslav nationalism temporarily defeated, I think Austria would be in a stronger position, sense one of the largest external threats would be removed. In all I think that a defeat of Serbia, without drawing the rest of Europe in, could have the potential to lower the tensions in Europe, if handled correctly.
Russia would be hard pressed to support regicides and would have to back down. Austria-Hungary, supported by Germany and possibly Italy (would a government backed assassination be considered aggression enough to trigger the triple alliance?) would invade and occupy Serbia (and possibly Montenegro). A new government and probably dynasty (possibly a branch of the Habsburgs) would be installed in one or both of the Serb states with limits placed on the military and probably on diplomatic ties to Russia.
This would be a major diplomatic victory for the Triple alliance and yet another show of weakness for Russian foreign policy, basically establishing permanent Austro-German influence in the Balkans (Romania and Bulgaria were fairly Pro-German, Greece was neutral and Albania a nonentity). However, long-term this would no doubt cause problems between the Entente and Triple alliance and could potentially push the Ottoman empire into an alliance with Britain and France (a fear of becoming dominated by Austria-Hungary and Germany).
On the other hand, with Yugoslav nationalism temporarily defeated, I think Austria would be in a stronger position, sense one of the largest external threats would be removed. In all I think that a defeat of Serbia, without drawing the rest of Europe in, could have the potential to lower the tensions in Europe, if handled correctly.
Nestor
Banned
But the Serbian government WAS responsible for the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. The head of their Military Intelligence, Dragutin Dimitrijević, organized the whole plot! The Serbian government may not have directly ordered it, but they undoubtedly knew about and did little to stop it. That's why the Serbs rejected the Austrian ultimatum, because if the Austrians were allowed to investigate they'd soon find that members of the Serbian government and army were heavily involved in the plot and the Austrians would have their heads.
We aren't too fond of revisionists around here. It is one thing to hypothesize something ludicrous, but to actually say it? The assassins were Bosnians. Given what happened between Bosnia, Serba, and Montenegro later on one could hardly say they would have all been looking out for each other. Their aims conflicted too much,
Lateknight
Banned
Yeah the back hand had closer links to Serbian government then Afghanstian had to al Qaeda.