Congress of Vienna and the Polish-Saxon Crisis

Larus Marinus · Jan 29, 2015

At the Congress of Vienna, Prussia originally wanted to annex all of Saxony, while Russia wanted most of Poland. Prussia supposedly had little to no desire or need for the then insignificant territories of the future Rhine Province, and was happy to give up land there and elsewhere for the chance to annex Saxony. In the end, Russia and Prussia did not get all of what they wanted because they were forced to back down by the other powers.

Is there any way we can end up with a treaty wherein the Prussian and Russian desires are realized, preferably at the negotiation table rather than on the battlefield?

If so:
1) Would the King of Saxony receive any sort of compensation? (A new Kingdom of Saxony in Westphalia?)

2) Assuming it's settled at the negotiation table, what could Austria demand as compensation for the loss of Galicia? (Bavaria?)

3) Who would receive the territories of the OTL Rhine Province if not Prussia? (Austria didn't want them)

Any plausible PoD ideas for such an outcome would also be welcome.

Kingpoleon · Jan 29, 2015

Saxe-Rheinland is certainly a possibility, and that would cover Prussia taking Saxony and compensation for the Saxons. Austria losing Galicia would either need a Black Sea territory, perhaps a small Ottoman-Romanian state, or Bosnia-Herzegovina to make up for it.

Snaut · Jan 30, 2015

Kuld von Reyn said:
2) Assuming it's settled at the negotiation table, what could Austria demand as compensation for the loss of Galicia? (Bavaria?)

I think the idea was for Austria to get more of Italy.

Larus Marinus · Jan 30, 2015

Kingpoleon said:
Saxe-Rheinland is certainly a possibility, and that would cover Prussia taking Saxony and compensation for the Saxons. Austria losing Galicia would either need a Black Sea territory, perhaps a small Ottoman-Romanian state, or Bosnia-Herzegovina to make up for it.

I know the Ottoman Empire wouldn't exactly be in a position to resist, but was Ottoman territory like Bosnia-Herzegovina really on the table at the time?

Zaius said:
I think the idea was for Austria to get more of Italy.

Anything more specific? Are we talking about the OTL Habsburg-ruled Italian minors being integrated into Lombardy-Venetia, or Piedmont getting less of Lombardy in favor of Austria? Could even the Kingdom of Two Sicilies be on the table under the right circumstances? (Assuming the Austrians even wanted it)

Iserlohn · Jan 30, 2015

Kuld von Reyn said:
Anything more specific? Are we talking about the OTL Habsburg-ruled Italian minors being integrated into Lombardy-Venetia, or Piedmont getting less of Lombardy in favor of Austria? Could even the Kingdom of Two Sicilies be on the table under the right circumstances? (Assuming the Austrians even wanted it)

Well, maybe keeping Genoa alive as a principality under a Habsburg puppet? That should be fairly easy. Otherwise I'd say that Austria would also probably like to keep at least a small portion of Galicia, enough to have access to Cracow (which I imagine would continue being a neutral city-state ITTL for quite some time).

And regarding the question of compensation for the Wettins... Most of the Rhineland (with basically everything south of the Mosel going to Bavaria?) and the Siegerland would probably work really well, since the Prussians are probably too involved in Westphalia to consider leaving behind that region completely.

Larus Marinus · Jan 30, 2015

Iserlohn said:
Well, maybe keeping Genoa alive as a principality under a Habsburg puppet? That should be fairly easy. Otherwise I'd say that Austria would also probably like to keep at least a small portion of Galicia, enough to have access to Cracow (which I imagine would continue being a neutral city-state ITTL for quite some time).

Pretty much anything would be a diplomatic loss for Austria in this scenario, but perhaps if Papal Romagna was included in addition to a puppet Genoa? No idea if taking Papal land was acceptable at the time, but there's not much else for them to gain except maybe a puppet Bosnia as suggested earlier. (Unless Metternich lost his mind and demanded Switzerland or something)

Alexander supposedly conceded Posen and Kulmerland to Prussia and a bit of Galicia and Cracow to Austria in the original "draft" of his demands. Most of Poland, including Cracow and Galicia would probably have been made part of the Russian Kingdom of Poland though.

Iserlohn said:
And regarding the question of compensation for the Wettins... Most of the Rhineland (with basically everything south of the Mosel going to Bavaria?) and the Siegerland would probably work really well, since the Prussians are probably too involved in Westphalia to consider leaving behind that region completely.

What was the extent of the Siegerland? Roughly the same as the modern region?

How were the Prussians involved in Westphalia? I know they had holdings there before the war, but the same can be said for East Frisia and the Rhinelands.

Another question:
Would combining most of the Rhine Province with the Austrian Netherlands to create a single kingdom of Belgium under the deposed king of Saxony be a plausible option? He was Catholic, as was most of the Rhine Province, so it seems like it would be a more palatable arrangement for the Belgians than the OTL union with the Netherlands was. The Netherlands could perhaps receive East Frisia and Cleves instead, with Hannover getting at least parts of Westphalia instead of East Frisia.

Iserlohn · Jan 30, 2015

Kuld von Reyn said:
Pretty much anything would be a diplomatic loss for Austria in this scenario, but perhaps if Papal Romagna was included in addition to a puppet Genoa? No idea if taking Papal land was acceptable at the time, but there's not much else for them to gain except maybe a puppet Bosnia as suggested earlier. (Unless Metternich lost his mind and demanded Switzerland or something)

I've heard that people (specifically Alexander I.) considered giving Eugene de Beauharnais a small state, with the Papal Legations being one of the territories in question. How exactly to achieve that is kinda hard though... Alternatively, as you've suggested, getting closer to the pre-1739 Austrian borders in the Balkans (Serbia, parts of Bosnia, parts of Romania) could be an alternative but I'm no expert on the Ottomans during that period, excluding the existence of a Serbian revolt in 1815.

Kuld von Reyn said:
What was the extent of the Siegerland? Roughly the same as the modern region?

How were the Prussians involved in Westphalia? I know they had holdings there before the war, but the same can be said for East Frisia and the Rhinelands.

Judging from what I've found, the borders of the Siegerland didn't change between 1815 (when the Kreis Siegen was established) until 1974, so that should give you a basic idea of big/small it was back then (the region was a mess pre-mediatization, so there probably aren't good maps of it before the CoV).

Prussia was only involved in the northern portions of the Rhineland (the former portions of Jülich-Cleves-Berg), so the southern portions of the Rhineland are open for a Wettin state. On an interesting side note the last man to be Elector of Trier was... Prince Clemens Wenceslaus of Saxony, uncle of King Frederick Augustus I of Saxony. So it seems like "destiny to "restore" it to the Wettins.

Kuld von Reyn said:
Another question:
Would combining most of the Rhine Province with the Austrian Netherlands to create a single kingdom of Belgium under the deposed king of Saxony be a plausible option? He was Catholic, as was most of the Rhine Province, so it seems like it would be a more palatable arrangement for the Belgians than the OTL union with the Netherlands was. The Netherlands could perhaps receive East Frisia and Cleves instead, with Hannover getting at least parts of Westphalia instead of East Frisia.

It'd be a nice state, that's for sure, I'm sure they (as in both the "Belgians" and Frederick Augustus) wouldn't complain. But personally I'd limit their share of the Rhineland then. And when it comes to the Netherlands... East Frisia would probably be enough, since restoring the Netherlands to Orange-Nassau was already quite generous due to them having forfeited the Netherlands during the Napoleonic Wars and giving them the southern Netherlands was just there to create a strong buffer state.

Kingpoleon · Jan 30, 2015

Kuld von Reyn said:
I know the Ottoman Empire wouldn't exactly be in a position to resist, but was Ottoman territory like Bosnia-Herzegovina really on the table at the time?

Yes. The Ottomans lost some territory to the Russians they could be given back in exchange for Russia getting Austrian Poland.

Larus Marinus · Jan 31, 2015

First draft of my ATL changes to the Treaty of Vienna: (Anything that doesn't contradict the below remains as in OTL. Map later. Probably.)

Great Powers:

Austria:
Loses:
- Galicia and Lodomeria -> Russia [1]

Gains:
- Bavarian Salzburg -> Austria
- Papal Ferrara [2] -> Austrian puppet [3]
- Ottoman Bosnia -> Austrian puppet

Notes:
[1] Except the Wieliczka salt mines and the Podgórze district, which Russia was willing to concede to Austria.

[2] Perhaps enlargen it to include Bologna?

[3] Does anyone have any ideas for who could be set up to rule it?

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Russia:
Loses:
- Bessarabia -> Ottoman Empire

Gains:
- Warsawian Poland -> Russia [4]
- Austrian Galicia and Lodomeria -> Russia

Notes:
- Warsaw and Galicia-Lodomeria united with the Russian share of Poland to create a new Kingdom of Poland, in personal union with Russia. [5]

[4] Except the relatively minor concessions to Prussia and Austria.

[5] More or less the OTL arrangement with more of Poland.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Prussia:
Loses:
- East Frisia -> Netherlands
- Cleves -> *Belgium
- Westphalian territories -> Hannover [6]

Gains:
Saxony -> Prussia
Warsawian Posen -> Prussia [7]

Notes:
[6] Not 100% sure what to do with these yet, but I'd prefer it if Prussia lost everything west of the Weser.

[7] As they initially promised OTL. Initially ruled separately from Prussia as the Grand Duchy of Posen. (Expect that arrangement to work about as well as in OTL)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Other countries:

Bavaria:
Loses:
- Salzburg -> Austria

Gains:
Rhenish territories south of the Moselle -> Bavaria

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Saxony:
Loses:
- Saxony -> Prussia

Gains:
- Austrian Netherlands (Luxembourg and Limburg included) -> Former King of Saxony
- Rhenish territories north of the Moselle and west of the Rhine+Siegerland -> Former King of Saxony
- A new crown [8], part of the German Confederation [9]

Notes:
[8] Haven't decided on the name, if something other than Belgium is even needed. Lothier perhaps?

[9] Without the union with the Netherlands, I don't see why the Austrian Netherlands would be excluded from it, especially since Bohemia wasn't.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Hannover:
Loses:
- Nothing of note

Gains:
- Osnabrück -> Hannover
- Prussian Westphalia -> Hannover
- Münster north of the Ems -> Hannover [10]

Notes:
[10] Except the Dutch share

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Netherlands:
Loses:
- Nothing of note

Gains:
- Prussian East Frisia -> Netherlands
- Münster west of the Ems -> Netherlands

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Swiss Confederation:
Loses:
- Valais -> Piedmont-Sardinia

Gains:
- Nothing of note

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Piedmont-Sardinia:
Loses:
- Nothing of note

Gains:
- Valais [11]

Notes:
[11] Maybe? With the north-west Franco-German border being somewhat less secure, I figured it might be in Austria's best interests to strengthen their southern buffer instead.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Remaining territories:
Since one of my goals here is to keep Prussia east of the Weser, there's still a few territories I'm not entirely sure what to do with. They are as follows:
- What remains of Münster
- Former Mark
- Former Berg
- Former Westphalia (pre-Napoleonic)
- Former Paderborn
- A bunch of tiny HRE remnants between the above and east of the Rhine

Possible ideas for what to do with them:
- Give *Belgium both sides of the Rhine, Berg included. The rest is split between Hannover, the Netherlands and various other surviving lesser HRE states

- An independent Kingdom of *Westphalia encompassing most of the aforementioned lands. No idea who would rule it.

- A bunch of relatively minor states, reflecting to some extent the old HRE borders there, are set up

Input would be greatly appreciated, as would feedback on the rest of the post.

Mixxer5 · Jan 31, 2015

I'm not sure if it's in Russia's best interest to own whole Poland. One of main goals of Polish nationalists was uniting Polish lands in single state, so eventual uprising would have to fight only single enemy (it never worked due to actual uprisings though...).

On the other hand- if Russian Tzar doesn't break constitution and allows certain degree of autonomy- it might work. Anyway- KoP in such case would most likely be doing its best to regain Posen at least, if not Pomerania.

HunterX · Jan 31, 2015

How is the Ottoman Empire losing territory in a congress that it's not even represented at? Why would the Habsburgs ever agree to this sour deal? Or Britain and France for that matter? This just sounds like a scenario that would lead to war, Russia isn't going to be able to dictate such favorable terms for itself. Austria certainly isn't going to accept a Russian Galicia, having Russia sitting at the Carpathians is a nightmare scenario for them.

pompejus · Jan 31, 2015

Kuld von Reyn said:
First draft of my ATL changes to the Treaty of Vienna: (Anything that doesn't contradict the below remains as in OTL. Map later. Probably.)

Personaly I have no doubt that the Netherlands will regain everything they lost to France, including Maastricht and Zeelandic Flanders and it is extrely likely that they would create a continuous border to those areas. Thus I think the Netherlands would include Limburg and possibly even Antwerp. It is not unlikely that to create a more reasonable border it is even possible that the Netherlands would gain roughly the current Belgian provinces of Limburg and Antwerp.

Actualy I think that a Dutch Belgium would in any case still be the most likely scenario, maybe with the South East (Luxemburg, Liege) ending up in the hands of someone who owns the Rhineland.

Iserlohn · Jan 31, 2015

pompejus said:
Personaly I have no doubt that the Netherlands will regain everything they lost to France, including Maastricht and Zeelandic Flanders and it is extrely likely that they would create a continuous border to those areas. Thus I think the Netherlands would include Limburg and possibly even Antwerp. It is not unlikely that to create a more reasonable border it is even possible that the Netherlands would gain roughly the current Belgian provinces of Limburg and Antwerp.

Actualy I think that a Dutch Belgium would in any case still be the most likely scenario, maybe with the South East (Luxemburg, Liege) ending up in the hands of someone who owns the Rhineland.

That also sounds like an idea. And just because one could, maybe let France keep the small portions of what became Wallonia that it was originally supposed to keep in the 1814 Treaty of Paris.

About rump-Westphalia, I'd say dividing it into two statelets (somehow) and giving them to some minor nobles (some Plettenbergs, maybe..?).

Oh and regarding Switzerland... I'd say them keeping Les Fontenelles (a small, tiny village in today's Franche-Comté) and Upper Valais, with only Lower Valais, which is primarily French-speaking, going to Sardinia-Piedmont (in contrast to Upper Valais being "German"). Giving Sardinia-Piedmont a German minority would be weird.

Janprimus · Jan 31, 2015

pompejus said:
Personaly I have no doubt that the Netherlands will regain everything they lost to France, including Maastricht and Zeelandic Flanders and it is extrely likely that they would create a continuous border to those areas. Thus I think the Netherlands would include Limburg and possibly even Antwerp. It is not unlikely that to create a more reasonable border it is even possible that the Netherlands would gain roughly the current Belgian provinces of Limburg and Antwerp.

Actualy I think that a Dutch Belgium would in any case still be the most likely scenario, maybe with the South East (Luxemburg, Liege) ending up in the hands of someone who owns the Rhineland.

I tend to agree, especially since the (former) king of Saxony wasn't really trusted, since he was deemed too pro French. So I agree, that it's unlikely that the new Saxon territory will stretch all the way to the north sea. In fact maybe the Netherlands also ends up with Cleves, especially when they wouldn't get Liege and Luxembourg. He could and IMHO would likely get some of the ''remaining territories''.

BTW Luxembourg was a compensation for the Orange-Nassau dynastic territories.

Larus Marinus · Jan 31, 2015

Mixxer5 said:
I'm not sure if it's in Russia's best interest to own whole Poland. One of main goals of Polish nationalists was uniting Polish lands in single state, so eventual uprising would have to fight only single enemy (it never worked due to actual uprisings though...).

On the other hand- if Russian Tzar doesn't break constitution and allows certain degree of autonomy- it might work. Anyway- KoP in such case would most likely be doing its best to regain Posen at least, if not Pomerania.

HunterX said:
Why would the Habsburgs ever agree to this sour deal? Or Britain and France for that matter? This just sounds like a scenario that would lead to war, Russia isn't going to be able to dictate such favorable terms for itself. Austria certainly isn't going to accept a Russian Galicia, having Russia sitting at the Carpathians is a nightmare scenario for them.

I went over my sources again before replying, and it seems I misunderstood what exactly Russia was demanding. I got the impression that Russia was demanding all of Galicia and Lodomeria, but it turns out they were just demanding the parts that had been added to Napoleonic Warsaw to begin with. This included Cracow, but not what remained of Galicia and Lodomeria still in Habsburg hands. In other words, you are absolutely right, leaving mostly only the matter of Saxony.

HunterX said:
How is the Ottoman Empire losing territory in a congress that it's not even represented at?

Very good point, though the issue is luckily no longer relevant thanks to the rest of your feedback.

pompejus said:
Personaly I have no doubt that the Netherlands will regain everything they lost to France, including Maastricht and Zeelandic Flanders and it is extrely likely that they would create a continuous border to those areas. Thus I think the Netherlands would include Limburg and possibly even Antwerp. It is not unlikely that to create a more reasonable border it is even possible that the Netherlands would gain roughly the current Belgian provinces of Limburg and Antwerp.

Actualy I think that a Dutch Belgium would in any case still be the most likely scenario, maybe with the South East (Luxemburg, Liege) ending up in the hands of someone who owns the Rhineland.

Janprimus said:
I tend to agree, especially since the (former) king of Saxony wasn't really trusted, since he was deemed too pro French. So I agree, that it's unlikely that the new Saxon territory will stretch all the way to the north sea. In fact maybe the Netherlands also ends up with Cleves, especially when they wouldn't get Liege and Luxembourg. He could and IMHO would likely get some of the ''remaining territories''.

BTW Luxembourg was a compensation for the Orange-Nassau dynastic territories.

I put together a very rough map showing my proposed alternate divisions of Germany and the Netherlands, based partially on my previous post and partially on the feedback so far. Not all of the Netherlands are shown, but assume that it's the same as OTL west of where the map ends. The partially transparent lines outline territories that the countries in question either didn't get OTL or are made up of. I drew the map so it's relatively easy to edit in paint with the bucket tool if anyone wants to propose some changes on the map.

Regarding *Westphalia (Name pending) and *Luxemburg (Name pending):
One will be a grand duchy and the other will be a kingdom, but which is which will depend on what the former King of Saxony is compensated with. Who will rule the other one I am not sure. I suppose making a "United Kingdom of the Netherlands and the Rhinelands" could be a possibility, but that might be a bit excessive. (In that case, East Frisia and the other territories bordering Hanover would probably end up in Hanoverian hands as OTL instead.)

De von Of · Jan 31, 2015

I don't think Austria would have accepted Prussia getting Saxony without getting something significant in compensation. Large pieces of Bavaria seem most likely, since that was a Habsburg goal for several centuries at that point.

The perceived increase of Prussian influence inside the former Empire would have been a no go for Austria (Saxony was seen as a lot more valuable at that time than the Rhine provinces).

It also isn't as if the Russians and Prussians could just walk over Austria. Out of the five great powers at the conference, Austria was (usually) supported by both France and Britain and the Russian ability to project force inside the former Empire was already limited by logistics and dependant on local support.

Larus Marinus · Feb 1, 2015

De von Of said:
I don't think Austria would have accepted Prussia getting Saxony without getting something significant in compensation. Large pieces of Bavaria seem most likely, since that was a Habsburg goal for several centuries at that point.

The perceived increase of Prussian influence inside the former Empire would have been a no go for Austria (Saxony was seen as a lot more valuable at that time than the Rhine provinces).

It also isn't as if the Russians and Prussians could just walk over Austria. Out of the five great powers at the conference, Austria was (usually) supported by both France and Britain and the Russian ability to project force inside the former Empire was already limited by logistics and dependant on local support.

Believe it or not, Metternich actually offered Prussia the entirety of Saxony in return for them supporting the rest of the powers in their anti-Russian stance at the congress. IOTL, Metternich was saved by the crisis basically solving itself a couple of months later, but if the Prussians were to take the deal early enough, or if the czar remained on the offensive for longer, they might end up with all of Saxony. (Which, like you said, would not exactly be in Austria's long-term interests.)

It should also be noted that, at least initially, the UK was 100% in favor of a Prussian annexation of Saxony, as they believed the Saxon king had lost his rights to his throne entirely. (That was supposedly the stance held by Castlereagh, at any rate)

This wasn't the approach I was going to take with this speculation initially, but with my misunderstanding regarding the Russian ambitions in Poland cleared up, it seems like a more fruitful idea to explore.

Still, I did give Bavaria some Rhenish territory on my map, so Austria at least receiving some token compensation in addition to Prussia losing any presence west of the Weser might be in order. Perhaps the chunk of Salzburg absorbed into Bavaria, along with the former bishopric of Passau would be a start. Add to that another Italian puppet or two, and Austria would at least appear to have gotten *something* out of the deal other than a political ally against Russia.

Mixxer5 · Feb 1, 2015

HunterX said:
How is the Ottoman Empire losing territory in a congress that it's not even represented at? Why would the Habsburgs ever agree to this sour deal? Or Britain and France for that matter? This just sounds like a scenario that would lead to war, Russia isn't going to be able to dictate such favorable terms for itself. Austria certainly isn't going to accept a Russian Galicia, having Russia sitting at the Carpathians is a nightmare scenario for them.

To that in turn I don't agree.

Galicia was a borderland for the empire, always neglected, always considered expendable by central govt. If they Keep whole Carpathia and fortify it (and get something good in return... Salzburg won't do. Piece of Switzerland?), it is not much of a loss for them. Heck- if they gain some valuable territories, it'll be much better asset for them than Galicia would be for Russia.

I remember, that on Polish forum we explored PoD, where Austria was promised Bavaria by Russia in exchange for Galicia and giving up Balkans. It escalated into war with Prussia and GB, so Russia ended with whole Poland (and Prussia ended dismantled). In such case they had to give Poles an autonomy... And it worked pretty well for both parties involved.

HunterX · Feb 1, 2015

Mixxer5 said:
To that in turn I don't agree.

Galicia was a borderland for the empire, always neglected, always considered expendable by central govt. If they Keep whole Carpathia and fortify it (and get something good in return... Salzburg won't do. Piece of Switzerland?), it is not much of a loss for them. Heck- if they gain some valuable territories, it'll be much better asset for them than Galicia would be for Russia.

The Polish-Saxon crisis was triggered largely by Austria's fear of Russian expansion. Galicia being neglected is quite a bit different from having it in the possession of a rival great power, one that Austria was actively building alliances to contain. Russia sitting at the Carpathian passes and on the edge of Bohemia is not a scenario Austria would accept, certainly not for the scraps that were being offered in the now-scrapped scenario. Considering even Napoleon never stripped Galicia from Austria, I'm not even sure why the region would be on the table here, it wasn't in OTL's Congress of Vienna.

I remember, that on Polish forum we explored PoD, where Austria was promised Bavaria by Russia in exchange for Galicia and giving up Balkans. It escalated into war with Prussia and GB, so Russia ended with whole Poland (and Prussia ended dismantled). In such case they had to give Poles an autonomy... And it worked pretty well for both parties involved.

Bavaria is quite a different offer than the one I was objecting to.

Janprimus · Feb 1, 2015

Well if Austria would be compensated with parts of Bavaria, then Bavaria might get some parts of the Rhineland bordering the Palatinate.

In which case the proposed borders of Luxembourg, Westphalia and the Netherlands would also change.

Perhaps TTL Cleves and something else bordering it (perhaps split Westphalia between the house of Orange-Nassau* and 'Saxony'), could be TTL grand duchy of Luxembourg for Willem I.

(*= would be in a personal union with the Netherlands)