Germany declares war on Japan during Russo-Japanese War

....err....right?
Why would Germany declare war on a nation it was fairly friendly with and did some pretty good trade with in order to back up it's most hated rival?
 
....err....right?
Why would Germany declare war on a nation it was fairly friendly with and did some pretty good trade with in order to back up it's most hated rival?

Second most hated rival, but yes... Germany has no reason to go to war with Japan except for Empire building and that would likely annoy the French and British.
 
They'd more likely intervene on Japan's behalf, Russia being Germany's No. 1 geopolitical rival around this time. I consider any sort of extra-partisan involvement in this particular conflict incredibly unlikely, however.

Germany isn't going to declare war out of the Kaiser's contempt for yellow people. You'd never get that casus belli through the bureaucracy without the promise of some sort of territorial settlement, or at the very least the will to assist Russia (it was never there).
 
The Kaiser's Yellow Peril leads him to this.

Ummm Russia and Germany were rivals, granted it wouldn't be impossible for Germany to go to war with Japan, Japan would have had to have been the ones to start it. Japan was allied with Great Britain at this point in history, and is firmly in her sphere in 1905 and Germany suddenly declaring war on Japan is going to trigger a response from London. As others have said also, Germany isn't going to fight just because Japanese are "Yellow", they were quite happy to smugly watch as the Russian Empire get knocked down, and not even the Kaiser has the power to declare war on a far-East Asian nation for no real reason.
 
The Kaiser's Yellow Peril leads him to this.

You know, posting random What Ifs with no thought behind them, and expecting everyone else to do the work is ... not going to make you loved on this forum.

If you'd at least spend some time and write up what YOU think might happen, and ask for thoughts, you'd get a lot more respect.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
....err....right?
Why would Germany declare war on a nation it was fairly friendly with and did some pretty good trade with in order to back up it's most hated rival?

Hated is the wrong word here- feared maybe but not hated. Russia and Germany enjoyed very intimate relations with the usual brush ups here and there from the marriage of Nicholas I and Princess Charlotte (goes back even further but that really seals the deal between the two)

The Kaiser was very supportive of Nicholas in the Japanese War.

From a practical point of view- since the Anglo-Japanese treaty would require British intervention, could uch a move by the Kaiser trigger a world war?


What would the French response be if Russia is attacked by Britain? What's Italy position here as well?

For the Kaiser this isn't a bad move- he has to fight Britain eventually, so why not get some help and let the French and Russians batter up Britain for him?
 
Hated is the wrong word here- feared maybe but not hated. Russia and Germany enjoyed very intimate relations with the usual brush ups here and there from the marriage of Nicholas I and Princess Charlotte (goes back even further but that really seals the deal between the two)

The Kaiser was very supportive of Nicholas in the Japanese War.

From a practical point of view- since the Anglo-Japanese treaty would require British intervention, could uch a move by the Kaiser trigger a world war?


What would the French response be if Russia is attacked by Britain? What's Italy position here as well?

For the Kaiser this isn't a bad move- he has to fight Britain eventually, so why not get some help and let the French and Russians batter up Britain for him?

It would be an incredibly confusing system of alliances at play. What could Germany realistically do to fight Japan though? I guess they could supply and provide aid to Russia, did they have any real force projection in the Pacific though?
 

sharlin

Banned
The only way Kaiser Bill would do this is if one morning he woke up after a bad nights sleep, stubbed his toe in the bathroom and when he went for his cerial, found there was no milk in the fridge. This then somehow causes a mental breakdown and has him get a nasty case of the howling crazies.
 
They'd more likely intervene on Japan's behalf, Russia being Germany's No. 1 geopolitical rival around this time.

Disagree that they would take Japan's side in the 1904-1905 timeframe, see Kaiser's pro-Russian stance and initiative for an alliance with Russia (Bjorko). You would need to go back several years for a PoD to make Germany more pro-Japanese.

From a practical point of view- since the Anglo-Japanese treaty would require British intervention, could such a move by the Kaiser trigger a world war?

Yes, that's why it would be incredibly risky. The Germans would have to assume that Qingdao and the Micronesian islands will be subject to immediate retaliatory attack by Japan (although if joining the war is secretive and well-timed, the Russian Baltic fleet could coal up at Qingdao before the tsushima battle, and unite with the German Far Eastern squadron).

Furthermore, with Japan facing two enemies now, Russia and Germany, Britain is obligated to aid Japan by the letter of the Anglo-Japanese treaty.

So, the Germans also have to assume that the British could go to war with them, and subject German colonies, shipping and fleets worldwide and in German waters to devastating attack and conquest by British and Dominion forces. That is why I think Tirpitz would be dead-set against doing such a move so early in his fleet build-up. He'd tell the Kaiser, "that's the best move for 1920, not 1905".

What would the French response be if Russia is attacked by Britain?

France is in quite a pickle. If Britain attacks Russia, France is going to either lose their only ally by not honoring their treaty, or gain a new powerful enemy by declaring war on Britain. They will be putting their colonies and fleet at great risk in doing so. They will be really unhappy with their options, and trying desperate diplomatic maneuvers (like the Entente Cordiale) to avoid having to make that choice.

By the same token, Britain won't relish the prospect of a war with Russia, Germany and France, that will be an expensive, wide-ranging and dangerous challenge, putting assets in the Mediterranean, India, Persia and Africa at risk.

Perhaps to avoid backing France into such a corner, Britain might try to interpret it's treaty so it only declares war on Russia's second, Germany, and not Russia itself. This could be done in the hopes of satisfying the formal obligation to Japan without triggering a French casus belli. In this way you end up with Japan facing Russia mostly (but with some local German forces in the Far East), Russia facing Japan entirely, and Britain remaining formally at peace with Russia while having its own parallel duel with Germany, and France able to stay a pro-Russian neutral.

If France actively came in on the Russo-German side, it is going to expect the entire shore of northern Africa from Morrocco to Suez as compensation for it's trouble.

Britain would see a danger in the potential of an all-continental coalition, but also a temptation. German intervention in the Russo-Japanese war creates the perfect pretext to "Copenhagen" the German fleet in the north sea and German sea power worldwide. The British could envision an optimistic scenario where a relatively cheap and decisive war sinks both the Russian and German fleets. British taxpayers could save gobs of money on naval construction or maintenance over the next decade. Your thoughts? I think it would be a delicate high-wire act, but just might work, as long as the British and Russians are willing to accept the tactical risk of not just shooting each other on sight.

What's Italy position here as well?

I believe Italy's attitude at the time was more pro-Japanese. Not sure why, but Italy at this time and since Abyssinia seemed to be anti-Russian until Roccogigni in 1909. When they liked Russia it was only for one thing, to screw over Austria-Hungary. That is not at play here.

Italy is capable of remaining neutral here, it long had made clear to its Triple Alliance partners that it would not join a fight against Britain. At the same time, the Italians are not going to actively incur the wrath of Austria-Hungary and Germany by declaring adherence to the Anglo-Japanese coalition, especially with Russia weakened in Europe and France neutral.

At their boldest, the Italians might decide it is time for a private war with the Ottomans over Tripoli.

For the Kaiser this isn't a bad move- he has to fight Britain eventually, so why not get some help and let the French and Russians batter up Britain for him?

It depends on German assumptions.

In the near-term, losses of colonies and overseas trade are inevitable. The German overseas empire is doomed in the face of British Imperial and Japanese seapower (possibly with American intervention in the Pacific thrown in- maybe some occupation of German Micronesia). So is loss of the battlefleet, at least if it comes out to engage and possibly even if it does not.

The medium to long term strategic gains are more speculative and chancy, but the potential is there.

The British blockade of Germany is offset by trade with Russia and France. Between that trade and the lack of a need to mobilize army forces, Germany will continue to be well-fed. A de facto "continental system" is in place, and Germany is its economic leader. Meanwhile, Germany becomes Russia's only source of industrial goods formerly imported from Britain and America. If France ends up in the anti-British coalition, then Germany gets to take over British market share in France.

So, it's a trade-off. Germany, by committing to war on Russia's side, faces a near certainty of losing all colonial real estate and oceanic trade, a risk of losing its entire naval order of battle, but it gains weakening and distraction of its most dangerous potential rivals, Russia, France and Britain.......priceless.

In OTL, Germany thought it could do alright with a free hand but not actually going over the brink into war. Germany at this time did not think war with any power was inevitable. Only if Germany assumed that war was inevitable and its best course would be to ensure it started under the best possible circumstances, would it make sense for Germany to get involved directly as a belligerent.


It would be an incredibly confusing system of alliances at play. What could Germany realistically do to fight Japan though? I guess they could supply and provide aid to Russia, did they have any real force projection in the Pacific though?

Yes it would- as illustrated in the discussion above.

Germany can engage its Far Eastern squadron against Japan, and has bases in Qingdao and Micronesia. In OTL its ships and colonial ports provided coaling services for the Russians, unless the German fleets are interdicted, the Germans can send more fleet units to the Pacific to work with the Russians.

They certainly can supply aid to Russia, maybe some advanced artillery pieces and crews.

They do have force projection capability in the Pacific, but it is very vulnerable to Japanese, British and Dominion interdiction.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
It would be an incredibly confusing system of alliances at play. What could Germany realistically do to fight Japan though? I guess they could supply and provide aid to Russia, did they have any real force projection in the Pacific though?

Depends when they decide to join the fight but lets say the German High Seas fleet moves ahead of the Baltic fleet and gets to Tsingtao. Then the Russian's Baltic Fleet moves in. That would be enough to end the Japanese unless someone (Britain) then intervenes.

But for Britain, this is a disaster. Fighting a major continental power or two with their land borders open is a nightmare for the British. Blockade is unavailable and British shipping on the High Seas is going to be targeted.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The only way Kaiser Bill would do this is if one morning he woke up after a bad nights sleep, stubbed his toe in the bathroom and when he went for his cerial, found there was no milk in the fridge. This then somehow causes a mental breakdown and has him get a nasty case of the howling crazies.

Things like that happen quite often in Willie's Empire
 

LordKalvert

Banned
So, it's a trade-off. Germany, by committing to war on Russia's side, faces a near certainty of losing all colonial real estate and oceanic trade, a risk of losing its entire naval order of battle, but it gains weakening and distraction of its most dangerous potential rivals, Russia, France and Britain.......priceless.

In OTL, Germany thought it could do alright with a free hand but not actually going over the brink into war. Germany at this time did not think war with any power was inevitable. Only if Germany assumed that war was inevitable and its best course would be to ensure it started under the best possible circumstances, would it make sense for Germany to get involved directly as a belligerent.

This is true. The Germans didn't think that war was inevitable with Russia or Britain. But they really wouldn't mind Russia and Britain beating each other up along with France.

American intervention is not going to happen. Teddy Roosevelt made some noises but the country never would have backed him. TR was all bluster and no stick

But I'm thinking there's some rich possibilities here. Somehow the Germans induce the French into the war- perhaps tell Nicholas that he's willing to deliver an ultimatium in London if France goes along to the effect that London must:

1) immediately end all support for Japanese Aggression and

2) give all aid and comfort to Russia putting the English fleet at the Tsar's disposal

Under pain of war.

Now, the British are never going to go for that one but the point is to put the French in the position that they have to join the ultamatium or lose Russia

Then if they agree, deliver, keep the High Seas Fleet in Harbor and let everyone shoot each other up. Sweep in at the end for the marbles. Has some real possibilities.
 
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