Could Muslims have taken Italy?

Isfendil · Feb 12, 2016

You know, the funny thing about this is that, had I not played a mod for EU4, I may not have figured out that Muslims conquered Crete, Sicily, Bari, Cyprus, and so on in those early days (I mean I wasn't that surprised to find out, but still).

Now, however, I'm wondering if they could've done more. I mean, I understand that once the political unity of the Islamic world fractures enough, the individual polities are more or less doomed, but that can be remedied, can't it?

So, in short, can the Muslims gain a foothold in Italy, at least as strong and long as they managed to in Iberia?

---If you're seeing this, it means I unsubsrcibed from this discussion. If you revived it and want a response from me, please PM me---

DracoLazarus · Feb 12, 2016

Isfendil said:
You know, the funny thing about this is that, had I not played a mod for EU4, I may not have figured out that Muslims conquered Crete, Sicily, Bari, Cyprus, and so on in those early days (I mean I wasn't that surprised to find out, but still).

Now, however, I'm wondering if they could've done more. I mean, I understand that once the political unity of the Islamic world fractures enough, the individual polities are more or less doomed, but that can be remedied, can't it?

So, in short, can the Muslims gain a foothold in Italy, at least as strong and long as they managed to in Iberia?

I don't think so. The Byzantines considered Italy as important, and their Norman successors were strong enough to hold the Muslims at bay.
The other pathway one could think of is the Ottomans, through Albania. They tried, with the invasion of Otranta, and it failed. Why? Because of Hungarian trolling. As long as the Hungarians are there, it's impossible to enter Italy. And when they're gone, Naples is Spanish and we're already past Lepante.

Sian · Feb 12, 2016

... isn't there a time between Byzantine and Norman control that the Sicily Muslims could make a push getting supported by Berbers around tunis? or is that window to small, even accounting for the PoD being Aghlabids/Zirids (or whoever rules the area) somehow being stronger at this time?

DracoLazarus · Feb 12, 2016

Sian said:
... isn't there a time between Byzantine and Norman control that the Sicily Muslims could make a push getting supported by Berbers around tunis? or is that window to small, even accounting for the PoD being Aghlabids/Zirids (or whoever rules the area) somehow being stronger at this time?

Nah. The Pope is too close for the Christians to be comfortable with any Al-Italiya or similar stuff. Think of the Charlemagne scenario, but in the South.

St. Just · Feb 12, 2016

In the early days of Muslim expansion, yes. The Byzzies were weak, and so was Italy. You could have an alt-Andalus.

How long would it last? That I can't say -- although this would easily butterfly Charlemagne esp. if it was done in the 7th or early 8th centuries.

Once the Caliphates fracture, the Muslim polities are too fractured to withstand any great amount of pressure from a powerful Italian polity.

Isfendil · Feb 13, 2016

El Yanqui said:
In the early days of Muslim expansion, yes. The Byzzies were weak, and so was Italy. You could have an alt-Andalus.

How long would it last? That I can't say -- although this would easily butterfly Charlemagne esp. if it was done in the 7th or early 8th centuries.

Once the Caliphates fracture, the Muslim polities are too fractured to withstand any great amount of pressure from a powerful Italian polity.

Someone has to die I think, I just don't know who- wow that's morbid.

eliphas8 · Feb 13, 2016

All of Italy is unlikely. Holding onto Sicily is very much possible though. It's a populous fertile island capable of supporting its own independence and being a major naval hub of the Mediterranean. Keeping it would probably just be a matter of avoiding serious leadership collapse and having strong ties to Tunisians who could be a ready source of Ghazis to defend the place.

Isfendil · Feb 13, 2016

eliphas8 said:
All of Italy is unlikely. Holding onto Sicily is very much possible though. It's a populous fertile island capable of supporting its own independence and being a major naval hub of the Mediterranean. Keeping it would probably just be a matter of avoiding serious leadership collapse and having strong ties to Tunisians who could be a ready source of Ghazis to defend the place.

Might it even survive to the modern day?

eliphas8 · Feb 13, 2016

Isfendil said:
Might it even survive to the modern day?

That's a lot of contingencies to think about and would necessitate it's own timeline to get into. Maybe? It's not like Spain and Morocco aren't proof enough the distance between the two can be basically negligible as long as it's defensible.

Carp · Feb 13, 2016

The problem for the Muslims was simply that Italy was so peripheral to the interests of their rulers. Taking islands was possible, and raiding onto the mainland and even establishing outposts there (Bari, Fraxinet, the camp on the Garigliano) was also tenable as long as the local authority was weak, and in the 9th-10th centuries it very often was. But most major Muslim powers had interests elsewhere.

Consider the Fatimids. They took over Sicily and in the early 10th century were capable of exerting great pressure on southern Italy - they defeated a Byzantine invasion and won several naval battles with them, laid siege to Naples, and generally were a force to be reckoned with. But the Fatimids weren't really interested in Italy - they were interested in Egypt, and once they got it, their hold over Africa declined. The Fatimids were happy to make peace with the Byzantines once the emperors realized Sicily was essentially a lost cause. The Kalbids, the vassals of the Fatimids in Sicily, cut a decent figure and even managed to give the Ottonians a solid thrashing, but the Emirate of Sicily alone was not a great power capable of contesting Italy with the Christians. At best it could defend the island and make raids on the mainland, and once the Kalbids died out and their state broke up they couldn't even manage those things.

If somehow in the 9th to early 10th centuries the Muslim state which held Africa had a single-minded focus on Italy, I think they could have done much better. But this is unlikely to happen - jihad in Italy offers few benefits compared to asserting control over the Maghreb and Egypt, which are after all already Muslim and much richer than the struggling principalities of southern and central Italy.

John7755 يوحنا · Feb 13, 2016

Carp said:
The problem for the Muslims was simply that Italy was so peripheral to the interests of their rulers. Taking islands was possible, and raiding onto the mainland and even establishing outposts there (Bari, Fraxinet, the camp on the Garigliano) was also tenable as long as the local authority was weak, and in the 9th-10th centuries it very often was. But most major Muslim powers had interests elsewhere.

Consider the Fatimids. They took over Sicily and in the early 10th century were capable of exerting great pressure on southern Italy - they defeated a Byzantine invasion and won several naval battles with them, laid siege to Naples, and generally were a force to be reckoned with. But the Fatimids weren't really interested in Italy - they were interested in Egypt, and once they got it, their hold over Africa declined. The Fatimids were happy to make peace with the Byzantines once the emperors realized Sicily was essentially a lost cause. The Kalbids, the vassals of the Fatimids in Sicily, cut a decent figure and even managed to give the Ottonians a solid thrashing, but the Emirate of Sicily alone was not a great power capable of contesting Italy with the Christians. At best it could defend the island and make raids on the mainland, and once the Kalbids died out and their state broke up they couldn't even manage those things.

If somehow in the 9th to early 10th centuries the Muslim state which held Africa had a single-minded focus on Italy, I think they could have done much better. But this is unlikely to happen - jihad in Italy offers few benefits compared to asserting control over the Maghreb and Egypt, which are after all already Muslim and much richer than the struggling principalities of southern and central Italy.

You are correct if talking post-Umayyad but it was not the case during the Umayyad period. The Umayyad machine was moving toward constant invasion of Southern Europe and Byzantium. It was the one that originally conquered the islands and set the Fatimids in position, which militarily was a lightweight compared to the Umayyad.

Isfendil · Feb 13, 2016

John7755 يوحنا said:
You are correct if talking post-Umayyad but it was not the case during the Umayyad period. The Umayyad machine was moving toward constant invasion of Southern Europe and Byzantium. It was the one that originally conquered the islands and set the Fatimids in position, which militarily was a lightweight compared to the Umayyad.

If the Umayyads survived, they'd be able to take Italy? How would they do both of these things, as I understand it they were ... Well I can't think of any other term except racist towards Non-Arabs. Granted the Abbasids were demagogues by comparison, turning the non Arab Muslims against them, but the standards were undeniably worse.

John7755 يوحنا · Feb 13, 2016

Isfendil said:
If the Umayyads survived, they'd be able to take Italy? How would they do both of these things, as I understand it they were ... Well I can't think of any other term except racist towards Non-Arabs. Granted the Abbasids were demagogues by comparison, turning the non Arab Muslims against them, but the standards were undeniably worse.

Ehh, the Umayyads are likely to not have the power to conquer Italy without first conquering Byzantium, which is a time race. In the end, the Umayyads will fall before Byzantium does. Therefore, unless you create mega Tunisia or something of that matter (unlikely), then there is likely no possibility of complete Muslim conquest of Italy.

An interesting thought however, is Spain and Morroco remaining Chrsitian and instead Islam hits Tunisia then curves up into Italy as it did with Morocco and Spain.

Behemoth · Feb 13, 2016

That would be an interesting scenario. Not sure if the pope would remain in Rome in that situation. Might end up having the papacy move and stay in France for longer.

Carp · Feb 13, 2016

Spain I can see remaining separate on account of the waterway, but how do you manage a non-Muslim Morocco that holds out long enough for the Umayyads to decide Italy is a better target?

It seems like you would need to stop or at least greatly curtail the conversion of the Berbers to Islam in order to achieve that, and without Berber manpower I don't know if the Umayyads can really make a play for Italy. Maybe a Christian state/tribal confederation that holds out in the Atlas long enough to get a truce like the Nubian Baqt?

John7755 يوحنا · Feb 13, 2016

Carp said:
Spain I can see remaining separate on account of the waterway, but how do you manage a non-Muslim Morocco that holds out long enough for the Umayyads to decide Italy is a better target?

It seems like you would need to stop or at least greatly curtail the conversion of the Berbers to Islam in order to achieve that, and without Berber manpower I don't know if the Umayyads can really make a play for Italy. Maybe a Christian state/tribal confederation that holds out in the Atlas long enough to get a truce like the Nubian Baqt?

I don't really think it is possible or plausible, just an interesting thought on the matter.

el t · Feb 13, 2016

Italy

What if the Muslims had captured Constantinople in 718 and won the battle of Tours. You could theoretically have Italy isolated and at least partially conquered from 2 directions.

Isfendil · Feb 13, 2016

el t said:
What if the Muslims had captured Constantinople in 718 and won the battle of Tours. You could theoretically have Italy isolated and at least partially conquered from 2 directions.

Winning Tours is worthless if Pippin the Short remains alive, he's the one who really stopped the tide of conquest. Also I think that would just mean Muslims hold on to Iberia (christian kingdoms in North no longer have help), they couldn't really drive their way into France, could they? France was a unified polity.

As for Byzantium, one could simply remove a certain traitorous ally, or maybe have him convert to Islam, instead of turning against the Muslims at the last moment.

Behemoth · Feb 13, 2016

el t said:
What if the Muslims had captured Constantinople in 718 and won the battle of Tours. You could theoretically have Italy isolated and at least partially conquered from 2 directions.

In regard to Constantinople, it would have turned out differently if the Muslims were able to keep supplies from getting to the city. The use of Greek fire broke their blockade. Also, during the winter in which they were camped, it was particularly harsh and disease was rampant. The Bulgar khanate was attacking their rear and, as far as I am aware, the Muslims didn't have siege equipment to breach the walls.

At Tours, Charles Martel chose the battle site and when he would fight. If the Umayyad commander (I forget his name...) had conducted some reconnaissance, avoided the previous battle with Odo, and pressed forward, then the battle may have turned out differently.

DracoLazarus · Feb 13, 2016

Behemoth said:
In regard to Constantinople, it would have turned out differently if the Muslims were able to keep supplies from getting to the city. The use of Greek fire broke their blockade. Also, during the winter in which they were camped, it was particularly harsh and disease was rampant. The Bulgar khanate was attacking their rear and, as far as I am aware, the Muslims didn't have siege equipment to breach the walls.

At Tours, Charles Martel chose the battle site and when he would fight. If the Umayyad commander (I forget his name...) had conducted some reconnaissance, avoided the previous battle with Odo, and pressed forward, then the battle may have turned out differently.

Isn't Tours north of Poitiers? The famous battle which stopped the Arab army took place in Poitiers, not Tours.