British hold Malaya in 1942?

Status
Not open for further replies.

Look More Closely Later

Assuming a point of departure no earlier than September 1940 (when Imperial Japan invaded French Indo-China) and events in Europe proceeding largely as in the original timeline, unless otherwise altered by a point of departure, is it possible for the British and allies to repel the Japanese onslaught in Malaya of December 1941, and to hold Malaya in 1942?

If so, what are the longer-term effects on the course of the war? Are the Japanese able to mount their original timeline campaign against Burma with Malaya still in Allied hands? Are campaigns in the Dutch East Indies significantly affected if the holding of Malaya keeps the Japanese out of Singapore? Is the Imperial Japanese Navy able to mount their Indian Ocean offensive of the original timeline? Would Malaya offer a potential springboard for any US attempt to relieve or liberate the Philippines?
 
Tom Colton

Tom Colton

Launch Operation Matador, which Percival wanted to do, and give aerial support to Force Z. Might not be enough to turn the tide, but forcing the Japanese to go through Thailand (or even wrecking their invasion force if they still attempted to go straight for Malaya) and actually having a naval force would go a long way to helping.

Would replacing/supplementing Percival*, sending better planes than frickin' Brewster Buffaloes and coordinating more with the Dutch government-in-exile once Japan tipped its hand by moving into Southern Indochina be too much of a hindsight argument?
*who I nonetheless feel was more a man trapped by circumstances than the incompetent dunderhead most make him out to be
 

NOMISYRRUC

Have the British invade Libya in early 1941 instead of reinforcing the Greeks. Then instead of reinforcing Egypt the British Empire and Commonwealth can reinforce Malaya.

However, the East Indies are vital to the Japanese for their raw materials so they would throw everything they had into driving out the British. Therefore the Empire and Commonwealth forces would hold out longer, rather than be defeated.

However, this takes pressure off the Americans so there would be no Coral Sea, Midway and Guadalcanal would be much different.
 

NOMISYRRUC

King Augeas said:
Chillier relationship with Stalin results in reinforcing Malaya instead of sending stuff to the Soviets?
Click to expand...

Yes.

I don't remember the figures but several hundred tanks and aircraft were sent to the USSR in 1941. They weren't enough to make a difference, but would have helped in the Middle East and Far East.
 

Look More Closely Later

Greece

NOMISYRRUC said:
Have the British invade Libya in early 1941 instead of reinforcing the Greeks. Then instead of reinforcing Egypt the British Empire and Commonwealth can reinforce Malaya.

However, the East Indies are vital to the Japanese for their raw materials so they would throw everything they had into driving out the British. Therefore the Empire and Commonwealth forces would hold out longer, rather than be defeated.

However, this takes pressure off the Americans so there would be no Coral Sea, Midway and Guadalcanal would be much different.
Click to expand...

It's an interesting idea, but regarding Greece, I understand that the UK government had given a guarantee to the Greek government in April 1939 to provide assistance if requested. In the original timeline the Greek government invoked this when Mussolini invaded them in October/November 1940.
*If* the Greeks call for aid, it seems to me that it would be very difficult for the UK not to send something - especially since Crete is useful for control of the eastern end of the Mediterranean.
 
Last edited:

Look More Closely Later

Last edited:

NOMISYRRUC

Look More Closely Later said:
It's an interesting idea, but regarding Greece, I understand that the UK government had given a guarantee to the Greek government in April 1939 to provide assistance if requested. In the original timeline the Greek government invoked this when Mussolini invaded them in October/November 1940.
*If* the Greeks call for aid, it seems to me that it would be very difficult for the UK not to send something - especially since Crete is useful for control of the eastern end of the Mediterranean.
Click to expand...

The Greeks held their own against the Italians and didn't want any help from the British beacause they (righly) though that the Germans would attack them.

The RAF sent 4 squadrons to Greece in 1940, but in 1941 this was increased to about a dozen squadrons by taking squadrons from Libya. It was also decided to send W Force consisting of 3 infantry divisions (2 Australian and one NZ) plus an armoured brigade. The Germans promptly invaded and W Force was evacuated but left behind 10,000 odd prisoners of war and all its equipment.

The British chief of staff estimated that a force of 12 divisions was needed to do any good. Churchill usually gets the blame for it, but I don't know whether that is true. The transcript of the relevant British official history on Hyper War says that Wavell said it was his fault. Also in the World at War TV series I recall one of the British generals saying they gave the order to send W Force to Greece before they received permission to do so from London.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Look More Closely Later said:
Ah. That's very interesting. Would eliminating one Japanese spy have a major effect on the air war over Malaya?
Edit:
Although if he was a saboteur too, and particularly wide-ranging in his efforts to presumably destroy men & machines on the ground...
Click to expand...
It's the information he gave which was critical. Locations and times, which is how the Japanese managed to make such a clean sweep of destroying nearly the entire Malaya air force on the ground.
 

Zheng He

Tom Colton said:
Launch Operation Matador, which Percival wanted to do, and give aerial support to Force Z. Might not be enough to turn the tide, but forcing the Japanese to go through Thailand (or even wrecking their invasion force if they still attempted to go straight for Malaya) and actually having a naval force would go a long way to helping.

Would replacing/supplementing Percival*, sending better planes than frickin' Brewster Buffaloes and coordinating more with the Dutch government-in-exile once Japan tipped its hand by moving into Southern Indochina be too much of a hindsight argument?
*who I nonetheless feel was more a man trapped by circumstances than the incompetent dunderhead most make him out to be
Click to expand...

Better airfield infrastructure to include revetments, shelters, and AAA and better early warning infrastructure is more important that the type of fighter. Without better infrastructure to support their air forces, they could have had P-51 Mustangs and they would still have lost.
 
johnboy

johnboy

I am going to take a divergent view and say no. I can see no way at all that the Netherlands East Indies can hold out. If Sumatra falls, which it must, then Malaya and, in particular, Singapore are cut off, completely at the Japanese mercy.

Strategically, it is more than possible to hold Burma, however, which will then allow an opportunity to springboard into Malaya much earlier.
 

Zheng He

johnboy said:
I am going to take a divergent view and say no. I can see no way at all that the Netherlands East Indies can hold out. If Sumatra falls, which it must, then Malaya and, in particular, Singapore are cut off, completely at the Japanese mercy.

Strategically, it is more than possible to hold Burma, however, which will then allow an opportunity to springboard into Malaya much earlier.
Click to expand...

I agree they probably can't hold it but like the US in the Philippines, even a better employment of OTL forces, they can sure gum things up for the Japanese for awhile longer which produces all sorts of butterflies.
 

jsb

With a September 1940 POD I think you are being a bit pessimistic,

If you allow the POD to be wining in the desert (without greece) then renforcing Malya with most of the tanks/air sent to USSR (+ add the 2nd Canadian Infantry Division) and you might stop the Japanese ?

If they take to long the IJN will run out of oil and the USN will come in a win so how long do you need to hold out ?

(and how do they get to Sumatra if you hold Malaya with a reasonable number of good aircraft and ships ? go the long way round after they have finished off the PI ? or come south with KB and fight a decisive battle against the wrong ally ?)
 

Riain

Banned
I think it could be done readily enough with the forces available in the time frame allowed in the OP. I rigged up a little tl a while ago on someone else thread about a well prepared malaya. That also includes holding Sumatra.
 
johnboy

johnboy

Yes, they key is also holding Sumatra. Not sure how that can be done without drastic changes that involve deploying Commonwealth troops in the DEI in force.
 

Riain

Banned
A naval force was sent to intercept the invasion convoy but didn't find it, that'd do the job.
 
johnboy

johnboy

It's hard to see how in 1941 the RN could match the IJN in a push South scenario. However, what could have been easily reinforced was the air units and top line infrastructure. It's easily to be wise in hindsight but 1940 and the BOB was 12 months old and the UK home islands were secure(not that they ever were not really). Radar, 8 squadrons of Spits and Hurricanes and 4 of Wellingtons would have made a huge difference. A difference that may have been major. Prior to WW2, NZ had purchased two squadrons of Wellingtons and Aust were going to follow.

With this sort of air force on Singapore or even Sumatra, allied naval units could operate with a degree of safety, allowing local superiority at times, which is a dangerous thing when your opponent had to move troopships about..
 

Riain

Banned
The rn doesn't have to stop the ijn in early 1942, it just needs to thwart the Sumatra invasion convoy on the night of feb 14. The convoy had a medium escort and a covering force including some heavy cruisers and a light carrier. If the rn stopped this invasion at the loss of all the ships it deployed in the theater iotl then I would consider it a success.
 
johnboy

johnboy

Very true but the Japanese can still send follow on forces with carriers that are much stronger. But with enough air support to cover your ships, there are really in trouble
 
Top
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top