US and USSR war against PRC 1969

Goobo · Apr 16, 2014

I have seen a lot of threads about a Sino-Soviet War, but I have not been able to find one about the US fighting on the side of the USSR. This starts with the Sino-Soviet border conflict becoming a full war, then for some reason the US decides that China is a threat that needs to dealt with. And they know the war will probably be won by the Soviet Union and don't want them to get all the spoils of war(if there is any). I assume this would be nuclear. What do North Korea and India do? And what happens to Vietnam?

Kung Fucious · Apr 16, 2014

Goobo said:
I have seen a lot of threads about a Sino-Soviet War, but I have not been able to find one about the US fighting on the side of the USSR. This starts with the Sino-Soviet border conflict becoming a full war, then for some reason the US decides that China is a threat that needs to dealt with. And they know the war will probably be won by the Soviet Union and don't want them to get all the spoils of war(if there is any). What do North Korea and India do? And what happens to Vietnam?

China would have to get really, really bad (like, North Korea-on-steroid-but-with-actual-nukes-and-maybe-a-giant-robot bad) for the US and the USSR to put aside their differences and team up to take them out in the late 60's.

Have Blue-117 · Apr 16, 2014

Around 1964 I believe when China was first starting up their nuclear program, the US offered to stage a joint attack with the USSR on their nuclear facilities. This was rebuffed as the Sino-Soviet split hadn't quite taken affect yet, so when the USSR asked the US to help them attack China in 1969, they too rebuffed the offer. If you can speed up the Sino-Soviet split then a joint attack in 1964 is quite plausible.

The Ubbergeek · Apr 16, 2014

A US-PRC VS USSR war is more plausible if you ask moi - the USSR was the bigger threat to both, and Mao/successors could have dealed with the yankees if they would have needed and have an use of them...

CthulhuFhtagn · Apr 16, 2014

Goobo said:
I have seen a lot of threads about a Sino-Soviet War, but I have not been able to find one about the US fighting on the side of the USSR. This starts with the Sino-Soviet border conflict becoming a full war, then for some reason the US decides that China is a threat that needs to dealt with. And they know the war will probably be won by the Soviet Union and don't want them to get all the spoils of war(if there is any). I assume this would be nuclear. What do North Korea and India do? And what happens to Vietnam?

I think you're going to have a hard time getting the US and USSR to team up. If a Sino-Soviet War begins, the US would probably be content to sit back and watch the two countries rip one another to shreds, then support a resurgent KMT in China once the dust settles.

Jeb Bush · Apr 16, 2014

Well, what do you mean by war? If total war, then whomever is stupid enough to get bogged down in a fanatical China will have a really, really bad time.

Chances are the PRC according to the People's War doctrine will give up the coast/fringe territory perhaps even Beijing and retreat into the interior. From Gansu to Shanxi in the north to Yunnan in the South, they will turn it into a meat grinder for the Soviet and/or American army. Keep in mind they will not fight a conventional war, rather the best way to compare is Vietnam, except with a more fanatical and devoted military and civilian population and on a much bigger scale.

mcdo · Apr 16, 2014

Have Blue-117 said:
Around 1964 I believe when China was first starting up their nuclear progra

They tested their first nuke in 1964, yes.
Some Japanese people were miffed, because it took attention away from the Tokyo Games.

CthulhuFhtagn · Apr 16, 2014

Don said:
Well, what do you mean by war? If total war, then whomever is stupid enough to get bogged down in a fanatical China will have a really, really bad time.

Chances are the PRC according to the People's War doctrine will give up the coast/fringe territory perhaps even Beijing and retreat into the interior. From Gansu to Shanxi in the north to Yunnan in the South, they will turn it into a meat grinder for the Soviet and/or American army. Keep in mind they will not fight a conventional war, rather the best way to compare is Vietnam, except with a more fanatical and devoted military and civilian population and on a much bigger scale.

You know the USSR had about 1,000 nukes, right? In a hypothetical Sino-Soviet War (which almost happened over the Zenbao island), the USSR would just launch a couple hundred nukes at every Chinese population center and call it a day.

Delta Force · Apr 16, 2014

Sometime during the Nixon administration, the Soviets asked the United States what its response would be if they were to launch a nuclear first strike against the PRC. Kissinger and Nixon were both shocked, but they realized how far the Sino-Soviet split had gone and this made them realize there was potential for an opening.

If the PRC does something really crazy in its foreign policy, like assist in a Second Korean War or attack its neighbors, perhaps the United States would swing the other way into a more pro-Soviet foreign policy, or at least not ally with the PRC.

Jeb Bush · Apr 16, 2014

CthulhuFhtagn said:
You know the USSR had about 1,000 nukes, right? In a hypothetical Sino-Soviet War (which almost happened over the Zenbao island), the USSR would just launch a couple hundred nukes at every Chinese population center and call it a day.

There is a reason why Mao was not afraid of Nuclear Warfare. Even if half of China dies, the other half will come back and rebuild the nation.

Jeb Bush · Apr 16, 2014

Delta Force said:
Sometime during the Nixon administration, the Soviets asked the United States what its response would be if they were to launch a nuclear first strike against the PRC. Kissinger and Nixon were both shocked, but they realized how far the Sino-Soviet split had gone and this made them realize there was potential for an opening.

If the PRC does something really crazy in its foreign policy, like assist in a Second Korean War or attack its neighbors, perhaps the United States would swing the other way into a more pro-Soviet foreign policy, or at least not ally with the PRC.

China and North Korea were split also. Chinese people were openly calling Kim Il Sung a traitor and a dog.

CthulhuFhtagn · Apr 16, 2014

Don said:
There is a reason why Mao was not afraid of Nuclear Warfare. Even if half of China dies, the other half will come back and rebuild the nation.

If Mao was truly not afraid of nuclear warfare, then he must have been completely insane. The long-term effects of a nuclear exchange devastating enough to kill half of China would leave the country irradiated for at least a century. Refugees would flee the country en masse in the years immediately following the conflict. Crop yields would take decades to recover, leading to large scale famines, which would kill even more people.

If the USSR and PRC had gone to war in 1969, China would probably be poorer than India today, and far less populous. That's assuming that China would even exist as a unified state, and not return to warlordism.

Jeb Bush · Apr 16, 2014

CthulhuFhtagn said:
If Mao was truly not afraid of nuclear warfare, then he must have been completely insane. The long-term effects of a nuclear exchange devastating enough to kill half of China would leave the country irradiated for at least a century. Refugees would flee the country en masse in the years immediately following the conflict. Crop yields would take decades to recover, leading to large scale famines, which would kill even more people.

If the USSR and PRC had gone to war in 1969, China would probably be poorer than India today, and far less populous. That's assuming that China would even exist as a unified state, and not return to warlordism.

Why would it return to warlordism, the glue which the CCP holds the nation together is the sense of unity against a common enemy. You put a nation in the height of the Cultural Revolution in a nuclear war, and every person will be hellbent on the destruction of the Soviet Imperialist. One must understand the mindset of the average Chinese in the 50s to the 70s which Mao did. Mao may have been ruthless, but insane he was not.

Sabot Cat · Apr 16, 2014

CthulhuFhtagn said:
If Mao was truly not afraid of nuclear warfare, then he must have been completely insane. The long-term effects of a nuclear exchange devastating enough to kill half of China would leave the country irradiated for at least a century. Refugees would flee the country en masse in the years immediately following the conflict. Crop yields would take decades to recover, leading to large scale famines, which would kill even more people.

Was Chairman Mao aware of the health effects of nuclear bombs? He didn't seem terribly well versed in the science of agriculture to begin with, so...

Jbenuniv · Apr 16, 2014

Don said:
Why would it return to warlordism, the glue which the CCP holds the nation together is the sense of unity against a common enemy. You put a nation in the height of the Cultural Revolution in a nuclear war, and every person will be hellbent on the destruction of the Soviet Imperialist. One must understand the mindset of the average Chinese in the 50s to the 70s which Mao did. Mao may have been ruthless, but insane he was not.

What glue? The leaders of the CCP have just been atomized. Local party officials will quickly metamorphose into warlords with communist rhetoric.

CthulhuFhtagn · Apr 16, 2014

Don said:
Why would it return to warlordism, the glue which the CCP holds the nation together is the sense of unity against a common enemy. You put a nation in the height of the Cultural Revolution in a nuclear war, and every person will be hellbent on the destruction of the Soviet Imperialist. One must understand the mindset of the average Chinese in the 50s to the 70s which Mao did. Mao may have been ruthless, but insane he was not.

Nobody is fanatical enough to not surrender when every major city in China has been nuked twice. In this scenario, the PRC would cease to exist. Its entire power structure would have been destroyed, along with most of the workforce and all of the infrastructure. The entire command structure has just been turned to ash (if they're lucky) or will soon be dead of radiation poisoning. There is no army left to fight the "Soviet Imperialist" in this scenario. There are no more railroads to transport troops, no more factories to make weapons, no more central government to maintain order.

As for the territorial integrity of China itself: at the very least, the USSR would establish protectorates in Xinjiang and Manchuria. Tibet would regain independence. I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan made an ill-advised attempt to retake the mainland.

Sabot Cat said:
Was Chairman Mao aware of the health effects of nuclear bombs? He didn't seem terribly well versed in the science of agriculture to begin with, so...

PRC Military Strategy Meeting, 1969

Mao: "...and that is why I have no fear of nuclear warfare."
Party Official A: "You think we should tell him?"
Party Official B: "Tell him what?"
A: "You know, about the radiation, the disease, the famines, all that stuff."
B: "Screw that, I don't want to get sent to a work camp."

Jeb Bush · Apr 16, 2014

Jbenuniv said:
What glue? The leaders of the CCP have just been atomized. Local party officials will quickly metamorphose into warlords with communist rhetoric.

Yes, because Mao is going to sit in his bedroom when war begins. The leaders of the CCP were not idiots and like the US would have made much preparation for a nuclear war with the Soviet Union, control over the core territory would not be lost, One thing which the CCP has done that the KMT dreamed of was control over local officials, and loyalty among the masses.

CthulhuFhtagn · Apr 16, 2014

Don said:
Yes, because Mao is going to sit in his bedroom when war begins. The leaders of the CCP were not idiots and like the US would have made much preparation for a nuclear war with the Soviet Union, control over the core territory would not be lost, One thing which the CCP has done that the KMT dreamed of was control over local officials, and loyalty among the masses.

I'm not sure if you understand what a nuclear exchange with the Soviet Union would entail. The "core territory" would have been an irradiated wasteland. The USSR could just keep launching missiles until the CCP surrendered or was obliterated (the second option seems far more likely, IMO). Mao himself might survive, but that's going to do the PRC about as much good as Hitler surviving the Battle of Berlin would do for Nazi Germany.

Jeb Bush · Apr 16, 2014

CthulhuFhtagn said:
I'm not sure if you understand what a nuclear exchange with the Soviet Union would entail. The "core territory" would have been an irradiated wasteland. The USSR could just keep launching missiles until the CCP surrendered or was obliterated (the second option seems far more likely, IMO). Mao himself might survive, but that's going to do the PRC about as much good as Hitler surviving the Battle of Berlin would do for Nazi Germany.

How much is Khrushchev or Brezhnev going to launch? 50? 100? 500? China is a large nation, no matter how much he throws at China (keep in mind one nuke at China is one less against the US) he will not destroy it, even more so unlike the USSR or USA, China is at the time had 80-90% of it's population living in the countryside, so even if the cities are destroyed, the nation will go on.

CthulhuFhtagn · Apr 16, 2014

Don said:
How much is Khrushchev or Brezhnev going to launch? 50? 100? 500? China is a large nation, no matter how much he throws at China (keep in mind one nuke at China is one less against the US) he will not destroy it, even more so unlike the USSR or USA, China is at the time had 80-90% of it's population living in the countryside, so even if the cities are destroyed, the nation will go on.

The USSR had 1,800 warheads at the time, so let's say that it launches 500-600. The fallout alone will kill tens of millions of people in the countryside. Direct detonations in major cities will kill, as you mentioned, about 10-20% of China's population.

So, just to recap, we're looking at:
-Hundreds of millions dead (200-300 million doesn't seem unreasonable)
-Total destruction of all infrastructure
-Total destruction of all industry
-Long term radiation which will kill millions more
-Irradiated crops, which lead to famines, which will kill even more people

I'm not saying that all Chinese people would cease to exist. I'm just saying that the PRC government would be completely obliterated, and that the nation of China itself would take many decades, if not a century, to fully recover from the war.

And this is assuming that the USSR doesn't attempt to balkanize the country or fund local warlords after the war ends.