During the Triple Intervention, Russia deprives Japan of all acquired territories

How? All-out Russian invasion of Korea? Such drastic measures can conceivably put UK out of its on the fence attitude and push her into the Japanese camp against Russia. Also, how much could Germany afford for Taiwan? Japanese occupation was met with great resistance and near 5,000 causualties due to hostile jungle enviornment, would Germany be willing to do the same?

The Russians made a critical mistake in not dealing the Japanese the knockout blow at the Triple Intervention. After England declined to join the powers, there was no longer any need to hold back. France had no choice but to back Russia after Germany agreed to and so the only limiting factor becomes Germany.

The Kaiser is clear both in his notes and his letters to the Tsar that he was angling for a port (on a dispatch that mentioned Japan's desire to aquire Taiwan he wrote "then we can claim it"). His letter to the Nicholas stated that he was willing to settle territorial issues on a friendly basis- he would back Russia's claims if Russia backed German.

The best solution from a Russian point of view would have been:

Germany gets Taiwan

Russia gets a protectorate of Korea

And the three powers split the indemnity between them

This would have crippled Japan's military buildup. They spent over 70% of their revenue on the military and the indemnity accounts for about a third of Japan's revenue.

The Russians don't want to destroy Japan here, just cripple her until the railroad is finished. The Japanese are useful as it gets the Chinese to cooperate with them.

The advantages of this are:

1) Japan is broke and can't expand its army and navy anywhere near as much nor buy the equipment they'll need for a war with Russia. It would mean at least the end of the Japanese armored cruisers more than enough to tilt the balance of power towards Russia

2) Russia gets a chunk of cash and can begin its naval buildup in 1895 rather than 1898- this would mean the completion of the Borodino class (maybe not those exact ships but battleships) by 1901. Five additional battleships would have been a game changer- especially if Japan's navy can't afford the armored cruisers

3) Occupation of Korea gives Russia access to the Korean bases she desired (Port Arthur is way down the list). The excellent port of Pusan on the straits of Tsushima was highly sought (especially by Makarov) and Seoul or Pyongyang areas offered others. This would mean no Japanese blockade of the fleet and the end of Japan's ability to land troops in Korea

4) The Russians could get real lucky- if the Germans are satisfied with Taiwan, they might not seize Kaichow which leads to the scramble for concessions and the Boxer rebellion. They could continue to play China's friend until the railway is finished

5) The British might decide quite logically, that Japan isn't a credible check on the Russians and not bother with the alliance and rather seek a deal with Russia on much more favorable terms for the Russians

The net result- China could easily have ended up as a Russian protectorate when some rebellion breaks out and the Manchus call for Russian help

Sharunaku said:

How? All-out Russian invasion of Korea? Such drastic measures can conceivably put UK out of its on the fence attitude and push her into the Japanese camp against Russia. Also, how much could Germany afford for Taiwan? Japanese occupation was met with great resistance and near 5,000 causualties due to hostile jungle enviornment, would Germany be willing to do the same?

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Simple- Russia alone had more than enough naval power to deal with Japan's little fleet. With French and German help (Spain would have helped too since they didn't want the Japanese in Taiwan) it would have been child's play to cut off Japan's army on the mainland and bring the little Japanese Empire to its knees- that's why they back down in the end.

Would the British intervene? Not a chance under Roseberry in 1895. He actually was more inclined to join rather than fight. After all, the British had suggested more drastic cutting down of Japan's claims but wouldn't back it up with force

In any event, Britain was desperate at the time to secure Russia's favor. She sought Russian help in dealing with the Turks slaughtering the Armenians. The British wanted to intervene and the Russians were stringing them along. The British had even told the Russians that they had no objection to Russia's getting a railroad concession across Manchuria for the Trans Siberian railway and access to a port- the real goals of Russia at the time.

Even leaving that aside, Britain is unlikely to intervene against the Three powers. They are a credible threat to Britain herself and what is Britain really going to do against the three of them? Blockade isn't an option

Britain would have swallowed it and, if she desired war with Russia, seek a time when Russia was isolated


As for the Germans- they would have gone for Taiwan, the Kaiser is clear about it. They might get more than they bargained for when the Taiwanese revolt, but for Russia that's added gravey

LordKalvert said:

Would the British intervene? Not a chance under Roseberry in 1895. He actually was more inclined to join rather than fight. After all, the British had suggested more drastic cutting down of Japan's claims but wouldn't back it up with force

In any event, Britain was desperate at the time to secure Russia's favor. She sought Russian help in dealing with the Turks slaughtering the Armenians. The British wanted to intervene and the Russians were stringing them along. The British had even told the Russians that they had no objection to Russia's getting a railroad concession across Manchuria for the Trans Siberian railway and access to a port- the real goals of Russia at the time.

Even leaving that aside, Britain is unlikely to intervene against the Three powers. They are a credible threat to Britain herself and what is Britain really going to do against the three of them? Blockade isn't an option

Britain would have swallowed it and, if she desired war with Russia, seek a time when Russia was isolated

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If Russia did go for a landgrab in China and Korea, do you really think the unpopular Lord Rosebery can do anything with "but muh Armenians..."? In any case, he was replaced by the Conservative government that would later sign the Anglo-Japanese Alliance because of the Russian acquisition of Port Arthur, and remember his government was dissolved before Japan caved in to the demands.

And IIRC France was quite wary about Germany which is why it signed an alliance with Russia in the first place? German acquisition of Taiwan would pose a significant threat to French Indochina and I don't think France would back a plan that would shoot itself in the foot, and the terms of alliance were mutual guarentee against the Triple Alliance, not obligation to aggressive endeavours, nevermind alongside the target specifically mentioned in them.

Sharunaku said:

If Russia did go for a landgrab in China and Korea, do you really think the unpopular Lord Rosebery can do anything with "but muh Armenians..."? In any case, he was replaced by the Conservative government that would later sign the Anglo-Japanese Alliance because of the Russian acquisition of Port Arthur, and remember his government was dissolved before Japan caved in to the demands.

And IIRC France was quite wary about Germany which is why it signed an alliance with Russia in the first place? German acquisition of Taiwan would pose a significant threat to French Indochina and I don't think France would back a plan that would shoot itself in the foot, and the terms of alliance were mutual guarentee against the Triple Alliance, not obligation to aggressive endeavours, nevermind alongside the target specifically mentioned in them.

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France was quite wary of Germany and England at the time- which is why she signed the alliance with Russia. France was reluctant to join the Triple Intervention but did so because:

1) If she refused, then she risked her good relations with Russia and besides, the Germans and the Russians were going ahead anyway so you night as well join them. German agreement with Russia forces France's hand. Before that, her position was to the effect that she would help the Russians if the others agreed. Well, the other's (Germany) agreed and that pretty much meant France was going along

2) Germany and France often cooperated on colonial affairs. They had just forced the English to backdown on the Congo treaty for example

3) France is also getting a piece of the action (about 250,000,000 francs) and if they wanted some territory they could get some. Neither Germany or Russia would have objected to giving them the old Kingdom of Okinawa if they wanted it. They didn't

4) A German Taiwan isn't much of a threat to France. In a Franco-German War, Frances fate would be decided on the Marne

As for British intervention- against an isolated Russia maybe. Against the continent never. And there is nothing in the record that indicates that the British ever considered intervening against the powers.

In the runup to the intervention, the British had explicitly stated that they would have no objection to the Russians obtaining a railroad concession across Manchuria or access to a port. The British had actually been suggesting intervention but back out because she didn't see her interests threatened by Japan at the time.

Yes, Roseberry's government does fall- but there is no sign that Britain would have signed a Japanese alliance anytime soon under Salisbury either. After all, when the Russians seize Port Arthur and the Germans seize Kaichow, his only response is to seize a port of his own. Chamberlain made a suggestion of a Japanese alliance but that's about it. No one took it seriously

The seizure of Port Arthur isn't what leads to the Japanese treaty, its the Russian effort to grab all of Manchuria (which Salisbury's government would have let them have) and the possibility of a whole lot more. Its not until 1902 that Britain finally signs the Japanese treaty and she does so only after failing to secure help from other powers and an agreement with Russia.

The Japan of 1902 is a lot stronger and the China of 1902 a lot weaker than the situation in 1895

For everyone who says "the British would intervene" I always ask for some proof that anyone in Britain was thinking of doing so. Action against an isolate France (as at Fashoda), Russia (as at Berlin) or Germany maybe possible but not when they are backed by others

Even Salisbury's government does nothing when the King of Korea moves into the Russian legation for a few years and runs the country from there

1) Japan is broke and can't expand its army and navy anywhere near as much nor buy the equipment they'll need for a war with Russia. It would mean at least the end of the Japanese armored cruisers more than enough to tilt the balance of power towards Russia

2) Russia gets a chunk of cash and can begin its naval buildup in 1895 rather than 1898- this would mean the completion of the Borodino class (maybe not those exact ships but battleships) by 1901. Five additional battleships would have been a game changer- especially if Japan's navy can't afford the armored cruisers

3) Occupation of Korea gives Russia access to the Korean bases she desired (Port Arthur is way down the list). The excellent port of Pusan on the straits of Tsushima was highly sought (especially by Makarov) and Seoul or Pyongyang areas offered others. This would mean no Japanese blockade of the fleet and the end of Japan's ability to land troops in Korea

4) The Russians could get real lucky- if the Germans are satisfied with Taiwan, they might not seize Kaichow which leads to the scramble for concessions and the Boxer rebellion. They could continue to play China's friend until the railway is finished

5) The British might decide quite logically, that Japan isn't a credible check on the Russians and not bother with the alliance and rather seek a deal with Russia on much more favorable terms for the Russians

The net result- China could easily have ended up as a Russian protectorate when some rebellion breaks out and the Manchus call for Russian help

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All good points that would be interesting to see developed.

3) France is also getting a piece of the action (about 250,000,000 francs) and if they wanted some territory they could get some. Neither Germany or Russia would have objected to giving them the old Kingdom of Okinawa if they wanted it. They didn't

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Why wouldn't they want it? And since the scenario you posit still puts Chinese territory (Taiwan) on the table, maybe the French could/would get Hainan island fairly close to Indochina.

Simple- Russia alone had more than enough naval power to deal with Japan's little fleet.

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stuff I've read lately seems to back that up in terms of raw numbers and tonnage. Did the Russians have their ships in a good position though, and sufficient bases? I suppose the Germans and French can be counted on to provide coaling support, and the Chinese may as well.

Oddly, the ground situation would be the trickiest part for the Russians. The Japanese have physical possession of Korea and southern Manchuria at the beginning of the diplomatic crisis, and the Russians have no Trans-Siberian railway yet.

With French and German help it would have been child's play to cut off Japan's army on the mainland and bring the little Japanese Empire to its knees- that's why they back down in the end.

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Good point-

(Spain would have helped too since they didn't want the Japanese in Taiwan)

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How much would Spain want the Germans in Taiwan though?

if the Germans are satisfied with Taiwan, they might not seize Kaichow

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Good point, at this time, Amoy, right opposite Taiwan, was more central to their trade and fleet operations in the China seas than any point further north.

But, doesn't the Germans getting Taiwan, a Chinese territory that was as yet unoccupied (Japanese were on the Pescadores though I believe.) kind of interfere with the fiction of Russian and its partners being friends with China?

In OTL the Russians were able to leverage their position to get diplomatic assistance and implied military support from Germany and France.

But, to get an immediate Russian protectorate in Korea, a withdrawal of Japanese forces, German occupation of Taiwan, and beyond that, and indemnity from Japan, threats will not be enough, threats will not be enough, defeats will have to be inflicted on Japanese forces, land and sea, and there needs to be a credible threat that territories closer to home, the Kuriles, Hokkaido, Ryukyus, Tsushima etc, need to be under credible threat of conquest.


You don't get an indemnity out of a country you don't invade.

That all requires a higher level of Russian commitment than OTL, and requires Germany and France to sign on for real naval battles.


So the first parts of any extended timeline really need to play out in detail the military maneuvers of the three intervening powers and how they use battle or blckade to impose their will on Japan successfully.

stuff I've read lately seems to back that up in terms of raw numbers and tonnage. Did the Russians have their ships in a good position though, and sufficient bases? I suppose the Germans and French can be counted on to provide coaling support, and the Chinese may as well.

Oddly, the ground situation would be the trickiest part for the Russians. The Japanese have physical possession of Korea and southern Manchuria at the beginning of the diplomatic crisis, and the Russians have no Trans-Siberian railway yet.

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Well on the ground, there is the Chinese Army. Not very good but with decent supplies and Russian officers more than enough to beat back a Japan that can't resupply her forces.

Russia alone had a battleship (the Nikolai) three armored cruisers and a bunch of other stuff. More than a match for the Japanese who at the time had no battleships or armored cruisers.

Furthermore, Russian shells at the time were better (the reverse of 1904) and the Japanese shells couldn't penetrate Russian armor. It wouldn't have been much of a fight

Vladivostok is too far away (except for repairs) and the Russians are at Chefu. The Chinese are going to let them use anything to get rid of the Japanese coal, horses, food, lodging you name it, the Russians have it in 1895

How much would Spain want the Germans in Taiwan though?

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Why would a Hapsburg Queen object to Germany? She sold her possessions after the American war to her. You can sweeten the pot and give her the two Japanese battleships building in England.

Russian and Spanish interests here are pretty identical. They might even try to slip in a clause not letting Japan build any more ships than China. Not sure the Germans would go for that one but if its the only way to get Taiwan and 200,000,000 marks why not. The Germans did object when the French decided that they wanted the Pescadores demilitarized but more because it was a bit impractical, permanent and the French brought it up late

This is actually a real bonus for Russia as the Kaiser, being the Kaiser, is going to spend his share on the navy making England madder than hell at him. Its Tirpitz three years early and there's no Japanese fleet to deal with either

As to your other points- force a Congress of Moscow and give the note to Japan, tell them sign it or die. There really isn't any choice to Japan. Your just making the Japanese sign over their gains. Its kind of like the Congress of Berlin with the Russians playing the role of England dividing the spoils among the others.

China's getting her cut at Port Arthur. She's friends with Russia just for that and they had to pay the Japanese to leave. Getting it back for free is even better. I don't think the Chinese would be that mad about giving Taiwan to Germany rather than Japan. Its kind of lost anyway.

The Russians would just tell them "well the Germans insisted and we had to buy them off to keep England out of it. England is your real enemy, selling you that opium and all. Once our railway is built we won't have to worry about England anymore. Then we'll attack Japan with you and make them give you all your money back. Send us some coolies and let's get to work"

But as for the intervention- the Three powers are a coalition that no one is really going to fight. More one to join especially if, unlike England, they are being generous and handing out candy to their friends.

But even Congress of Berlin, while disappointing Russia in territorial gains, and granting gains to others, did not and could not result in Russia being charged an indemnity or being forced to agree to arms limitations.

It seems to me that coalition threats can get the territorial results you want, and can deny Japan an indemnity from China (which is itself important), but it cannot result in Japan being actually charged an indemnity or being forced to agree to formally limit military expenditures or deployments in the home islands, the Kuriles, the Bonins or Ryukyus without the coalition actually fighting Japan to force those concessions. Like the coalition actually attacking the Japanese fleet, blockading it in port or sinking it, arming the Chinese against cut-off Japanese forces, and beginning to achieve some rollback on land and credibly telling the Japanese they need to pay an indemnity as a ransom to get their troops back from the mainland and notmade into POWs or casualties eventually.

Were not actually charging Japan an indemnity, they're making Japan turn over the Chinese indemnity. You can achieve pretty much anything you want even without fighting if your opponent knows he beat. Case in point would be Lithuania surrendering in 1940 without even a protest.

The only thing you don't want is for Japan to actually fight. Then you'll have to sink their fleet- which you can do- but then the Japanese wouldn't be a threat to China anymore and the Chinese won't be so cooperative.

The powers often intervened and imposed terms. All you have to do is convince the Japanese that the terms are going to get even worse if they reject them. Best course would be to demand that they intern their fleet in some intervening country's port-Saigon, Vladivostok or Manilla before you have your confrence. Just tell them you'll respect Japanese territory if they cooperate and won't if they don't.