WI Savoyards go south in 1718?

raharris1973 · Jul 21, 2014

Inspired by a comment from Mike Stone on an old thread:

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Another possibility. The Peace of Utrecht had split Naples and Sicily apart, giving Naples (and Sardinia) to Austria and Sicily to Savoy. However, after a brief war with Spain about 1718, the islands were swapped over.

Suppose they'd sone the swap the other way, exchanging the mainland territories instead of the islands. The Duke of Savoy then becomes King of Naples and Sicily, while Savoy and Piedmont becomes a western province of Austria. Could be a god dela for the Habsburgs, as it gives them a strong frontier against France. Not sure if Savoy would fancy it though.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=163859&highlight=sardinia

Probably the bigger deal, short-term, is the Austrian Piedmont-Savoy-Sardinia. But is this territory likely to go to Boubon heir in a couple decades, just as Naples-Sicily did in OTL?

How would Piedmont develop under the Habsburgs, or the Bourbons, especially if the rule of either lasted through at least the mid-19th century?

How would Naples and Sicily do under the House of Savoy?

Was the success of Piedmont as the leader and unifier of Italy in OTL, more a reflection of a good "court" in terms of the ruling dynasty and its associates? Or was it more a reflection of a better endowed "country", land environment society and nobility than OTL's Naples-Sicily possessed?

If the former, southern Italy could do much better than OTL. If the latter, it will become or remainnjust as behin northern Italy as in OTL.

Gurroruo · Jul 21, 2014

Southern Italy would end back in Bourbon hands. However Northern Italy would be entirely different and would cause some massive butterflies.

Emperor Constantine · Jul 22, 2014

raharris1973 said:
Inspired by a comment from Mike Stone on an old thread:

Probably the bigger deal, short-term, is the Austrian Piedmont-Savoy-Sardinia. But is this territory likely to go to Boubon heir in a couple decades, just as Naples-Sicily did in OTL?

How would Piedmont develop under the Habsburgs, or the Bourbons, especially if the rule of either lasted through at least the mid-19th century?

How would Naples and Sicily do under the House of Savoy?

Was the success of Piedmont as the leader and unifier of Italy in OTL, more a reflection of a good "court" in terms of the ruling dynasty and its associates? Or was it more a reflection of a better endowed "country", land environment society and nobility than OTL's Naples-Sicily possessed?

If the former, southern Italy could do much better than OTL. If the latter, it will become or remainnjust as behin northern Italy as in OTL.

Would the allies really go for something like this? I mean this would create an Austrian superstate in Northern Italy, thus upsetting the balance of power in the region. I can't see Britain signing off on something like this nor Venice and Genoa. This would basically be setting the stage for another war. Nor can I see the Duke of Savoy agreeing to this. Remember that he never wanted Sardinia or Sicily, but all of the duchy of Milan. Would the Duke really want to give up his ancestral lands for a potentially unstable throne?

Janprimus · Jul 22, 2014

The Savoyard primary goal was to gain the duchy of Milan. It's also true they did not want to give up Piedmont, however Savoy proper was, if needed, on the table. Also obtaining a royal crown* was one of their ambitions too. (*= or at least a recognized one, since they were claimants to Jerusalem & Cyprus).

I'd say Savoy, Piedmont, Milan and Sardinia** would be their ideal state.

(**= the only real possibility on the region to elevate them to kings, since I doubt other powers will consent with Savoy getting more important & powerful regional kingdoms like Naples and Sicily).

Brasidas · Jul 22, 2014

Janprimus said:
The Savoyard primary goal was to gain the duchy of Milan. It's also true they did not want to give up Piedmont, however Savoy proper was, if needed, on the table. Also obtaining a royal crown* was one of their ambitions too. (*= or at least a recognized one, since they were claimants to Jerusalem & Cyprus).

I'd say Savoy, Piedmont, Milan and Sardinia** would be their ideal state.

(**= the only real possibility on the region to elevate them to kings, since I doubt other powers will consent with Savoy getting more important & powerful regional kingdoms like Naples and Sicily).

Corsica?..

'Ezana · Jul 22, 2014

Brasidas said:
Corsica?..

Corsica would be a nice addition, but Sardinia is the one with the crown attached. Plus the King of Sardinia already gets to hold a legal claim over Corsica.

JonasResende · Jul 22, 2014

Brasidas said:
Corsica?..

Corsica AFAIK was a kingdom. IIRC Aragon claimed jurisdiction over it at some or for all of it's history. Then of course there was the little incident in the 18th century where a German adventurer set up shop as king for a few months.

'Ezana · Jul 22, 2014

JonasResende said:
Corsica AFAIK was a kingdom. IIRC Aragon claimed jurisdiction over it at some or for all of it's history. Then of course there was the little incident in the 18th century where a German adventurer set up shop as king for a few months.

No, Corsica was claimed as part of the Kingdom of Sardinia and Corsica, which was dropped in the late 1400s to be just the Kingdom of Sardinia, after which Corsica stayed for the Genoans. Sure, there was this one time where some Brits established the 'Anglo-Corsican Kingdom', but that wasn't even generally recognized and was as legitimate as the 'Kingdom of Corsica' established by the German adventurer. Sardinia was the one that had a legitimate title attached to it.

Redhand · Jul 22, 2014

'Ezana said:
Corsica would be a nice addition, but Sardinia is the one with the crown attached. Plus the King of Sardinia already gets to hold a legal claim over Corsica.

If we are being honest nobody really cares about Corsica except for the fact that Napoleon was born there. It was considered a backwater at the time of this POD a far as I know and that will not change for quite a while until the French decide that they want the island. Sardinia was certainly more important as you said, but it was probably harder to hold as the Spanish really wanted it. An effective way to get it is to simply have the Savoyards somehow take over the Republic of Genoa. This wouldn't be easy though as I doubt France would accept a powerful Italian kingdom right next door and neither would Austria.

Emperor Constantine · Jul 22, 2014

Redhand said:
If we are being honest nobody really cares about Corsica except for the fact that Napoleon was born there. It was considered a backwater at the time of this POD a far as I know and that will not change for quite a while until the French decide that they want the island. Sardinia was certainly more important as you said, but it was probably harder to hold as the Spanish really wanted it. An effective way to get it is to simply have the Savoyards somehow take over the Republic of Genoa. This wouldn't be easy though as I doubt France would accept a powerful Italian kingdom right next door and neither would Austria.

This right here. There's a reason Savoy only got parts of Milan: Austria didn't want to give up the entire duchy and wanted to insure that their new neighbors weren't to powerful. Plus I think the fact that Duke Victor Amadeus II tended to switch sides more times then people switched underwear didn't endear him to the Allies. After all, who would want to give a fair weather ally large amounts of territory?

Janprimus · Jul 23, 2014

Austria had objections, but since the duke of Savoy switched sides so often, others like France also weren't really interested in supporting him either.

OTOH I wrote the ideal Savoyard state, that would naturally include the duchy of Milan, but if they would also be able to gain a royal crown, then it would be perfect or ideal.
One which would fulfil their ambitions, keeps the 'available' territories in mind, but also won't be too outrageous. Hence IMHO Savoy getting all the former Spanish Italian possessions wasn't (ever) an option.
Edit: sure the duke of Savoy would have preferred the kingdoms Naples or Sicily over the kingdom of Sardinia, but if they would manage to gain the duchy of Milan, then I can only see other Powers giving their consent to the acquisition of a less prestigious kingdom.

And keep in mind that this offer to Savoy was contemplated during negotiations for the Partition Treaties, so before the conflict. Also if the duke of Savoy would have refused, they would have made this offer to the duke of Lorraine.
Given how France threatened and at times even occupied his ancestral duchy, the duke of Lorraine might be more likely to be persuaded to accept such an offer.

raharris1973 · Jul 26, 2014

Gurroruo

Southern Italy would end back in Bourbon hands.

Why so? Is it your view that the Spanish Bourbon Duke of Parma http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_III_of_Spain would have still made southern Italy (and Sicily?) a priority territorial objective and the Savoyards installed in Naples since 1718 would be unable to resist them?

On the other hand: 1) it is quite possible the Savoyards in Naples would not have been ousted or much bothered by Parma or Spain during any war of Polish Succession. Parma and France would have had a common interest in cutting down or weakening Habsburg Piedmont and Milan.

2) Also, in OTL, the Bourbon takeover of Naples from the Habsburgs in 1734-1735 (during the war for Polish Succession) was aided by local discontent with Habsburg rule by viceroy, leading the nobility to side more with the Bourbon invaders.

If instead of a Habsburg Viceroy, Naples had been ruled by Victor Amadeus II since 1718, and he succeeded in establishing a good administration and getting it locally accepted, local elites might have remained true to him and this might have been enough to help him resist any Bourbon invasion or intrigue that did come.

Gurroruo

However Northern Italy would be entirely different and would cause some massive butterflies.

Indeed, these would be interesting to explore. The resulting big Habsburg block and removal of the Savoyard as the native dynasty in northern Italy is a huge change.

Piedmont could stay Habsburg for the long haul, get taken over by one branch or another of the Bourbons (probably by the 1730s) or partitioned.

If the Bourbons also have Naples-Sicily, then there is no strong native Italian dynasty with interests in Italy alone.