Kokura, Nagasaki, Bockscar, and Fat Man PoDs

Delta Force

Banned
First, some background on how the second atomic bombing actually occurred.

After the destruction of Hiroshima in the first atomic bombing, the second atomic bombing was assigned Kokura as its primary target and Nagasaki as its secondary target. Kokura was obscured by smoke from earlier conventional raids against other cities, so the bomber proceeded to Nagasaki, but it was obscured by clouds. The crew had been ordered to carry out a visual attack, but there was a fuel leak and not much time left to make a decision. They couldn't return to Iwo Jima, and they were running out of fuel to return to Okinawa. With Japanese AAA fire getting closer to the aircraft, the crew was debating a mission abort and either conducting a radar guided attack or ditching the bomb in the ocean. Returning to Okinawa with the bomb was also considered. At the last minute before a decision had to be made, there was an opening in the clouds and a visual bombing run was made. Ground zero was over the Christian quarter of the city, specifically the Urakami Catholic Cathedral. As they were preparing for an important Mass, most of the Catholic community of Nagasaki was instantly vaporized.

Bockscar then proceeded to return to Okinawa, but after circling for 20 minutes the crew realized the radio had failed. With five minutes of fuel remaining (enough for one landing attempt), the crew decided to make an uncleared landing. One engine failed from fuel starvation during approach, and the aircraft came in fast, landing at 150 mph instead of 120 mph. The landing was hard, and the crew almost lost control due to the high speed and failure of a second engine due to fuel starvation. The aircraft almost crashed into parked B-24 bombers and would have ran off the runway if the crew hadn't made a ground loop.

Clearly a lot of potential PoDs here, but what about these specific ones:

1. What if Kokura had been attacked instead of Nagasaki?

2. What if Bockscar had been shot down by Japanese AAA or fighters?

3. What if Bockscar had crashed over southern Japan with the bomb on board?

4. What if Bockscar had crashed while landing on Okinawa with the bomb on board?

5. What if Bockscar had successfully landed on Okinawa with the bomb on board? How would it be rendered safe and transported back to Tinian?

Also, are there any scenarios in which the Japanese could have recovered the bomb and/or fissile material, or would an armed Fat Man type bomb have likely experienced a conventional or low yield nuclear explosion that would have rendered the material unusable?
 
Fat Man was an implosion-type bomb. Those require extremely precise positioning to work, with calculations and equipment that the Japanese hadn't made. And by August '45 they have neither the time nor the spare capacity to start. The Japanese wouldn't have gotten anything useful from a bomb that had been in a plane wreck, even if it didn't explode. Given widespread ignorance of the effects of radiation, even making a dirty bomb with any recovered material would have been pointless.
 
If Bockscar had successfully taken out Kokura, that city--today's Kitakyushu--would look quite a bit different today. For one thing, the large factories along the coastline northwest of what is now the JR Kyushu Kokura Station would probably have been abandoned, and today would be have been rebuilt into a combination memorial park plus new residential developments.
 
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