WI Cavour lives 15 years longer

Camillo Benso, Count of Cavour was considered the main architect of the Unification of Italy, and was a subtle and cunning politician. He died in 1861, barely over 50, of malaria, while trying to assemble a viable government for united Italy.

What if he lived 15 years longer? Would he be able to rein in the chaotic situation and create a better and more stable government in Italy?
 
Well one must consider that the health of Cavour was not great and the man basically united Italy single handely so was under a little stress.

In any case we can image that the Pod is the presence of his doctor during his last case of malaria so no use of bleeding as cure.

The biggest change that come in mind will be in foreign policy:

- The third war of independece (the southern front of the Austro-Prussian war of 1866) will play a little differently. If the man is still prime minister (a think almost certain) the preparation for the conflict will be more efficient as La Marmora will be no Prime Minister so he will not leave the place just before the war for commanding the army and frankly Cavour will rein both him and Cialdini so their rivalry will not cause the confusion on the conduction of the war (for not talking about the King coming to the front adding some problem). It will not change much on the end but the better performance will be good for Italy self esteem as the war will be a more clear victory and the Iron crow and Veneto will be given directely to Italy without the meddling of Nappy III, the real only change that i can see is Trentino being gained as it was occuppied by Garibaldi troops and the italian plan was to make the aquisition a fait accomplit.

- Aceh, there were an attempt to make it an Italian protectorate but the interest ended when Bixio who was sent there for a scounting mission died and another was done on Papua Guinea but at the time the goverment was not really interested. Cavour was very favorable at the creation of coonies so more support is a given.

- France, Cavour (as great part of the original piedmontese enstablishment) was very favorable to an alliance with France but the 'Roman Question' blocked any attempt from both parts to reach an agreement. I doubt that even Cavour can have the solution at this problem.

- General diplomatic isolation of Italy: frankly i doubt that the just born Kingdom of Italy with Cavour at the helm will be diplomatically isolated as OTL and if he found any occasion to attach Italy to another power he will use it.
 

BigDave1967

Banned
Would it have been possible to have an independent country of Italy with the Kingdom of Sardinia a completely separate entity?
 
Would it have been possible to have an independent country of Italy with the Kingdom of Sardinia a completely separate entity?
Yes, but not with this PoD. By 1861 Italy is already united by Piedmont-Sardinia, Sardinia isn't going to spin-off. :)
Open a different thread if you want a united Italy and an independent Kingdom of Sardinia.
 
Well one must consider that the health of Cavour was not great and the man basically united Italy single handely so was under a little stress.

In any case we can image that the Pod is the presence of his doctor during his last case of malaria so no use of bleeding as cure.

The biggest change that come in mind will be in foreign policy:

- The third war of independece (the southern front of the Austro-Prussian war of 1866) will play a little differently. If the man is still prime minister (a think almost certain) the preparation for the conflict will be more efficient as La Marmora will be no Prime Minister so he will not leave the place just before the war for commanding the army and frankly Cavour will rein both him and Cialdini so their rivalry will not cause the confusion on the conduction of the war (for not talking about the King coming to the front adding some problem). It will not change much on the end but the better performance will be good for Italy self esteem as the war will be a more clear victory and the Iron crow and Veneto will be given directely to Italy without the meddling of Nappy III, the real only change that i can see is Trentino being gained as it was occuppied by Garibaldi troops and the italian plan was to make the aquisition a fait accomplit.

- Aceh, there were an attempt to make it an Italian protectorate but the interest ended when Bixio who was sent there for a scounting mission died and another was done on Papua Guinea but at the time the goverment was not really interested. Cavour was very favorable at the creation of coonies so more support is a given.

- France, Cavour (as great part of the original piedmontese enstablishment) was very favorable to an alliance with France but the 'Roman Question' blocked any attempt from both parts to reach an agreement. I doubt that even Cavour can have the solution at this problem.

- General diplomatic isolation of Italy: frankly i doubt that the just born Kingdom of Italy with Cavour at the helm will be diplomatically isolated as OTL and if he found any occasion to attach Italy to another power he will use it.
So basically what you're saying is that the man's footprint on history had been completed by the time of his death. Good for him.
What about his conflicts with Garibaldi? Couldn't that escalate into a serious problem with Cavour living?
 
So basically what you're saying is that the man's footprint on history had been completed by the time of his death. Good for him.
What about his conflicts with Garibaldi? Couldn't that escalate into a serious problem with Cavour living?

They both hate each others but they both view the nation (and the king has is ruler) has much more important than their personal feeling; they never willingly start something that can degenerate in a 'civil war' if it that that you ask.
Regarding any feel of achievied his result, well there is still Veneto and Rome, but the capital is out of the question till the situation with the French is sorted out (even because Cavour, like Nappy III, will probably want an alliance between the two nations) so even if for internal reason he had declared the unity of Italy, Cavour will feel that the work his incomplete and for the reason stated above will concentrate on aquiring Veneto, for this reason i stated that some better preparation for the war will exist as the man was extremely methodic.
Internally, i don't know, he will try to promote industrialization and liberalism but Italy as some structural weakness that are hard to overcome aka poor on resources, maybe some better treatment/management of South Italy.
 
Hmm, you guys all make good points. About colonies: I wonder if, given Cavour's interest in colonies, Italy can make it to Tunisia before France? In OTL Italy was very interested in Tunisia, and I gather losing it to France was a close thing. And if they do get Tunisia, this might have a knock-on effect on further colonial expansion (earlier interest in Lybia?), and butterflies might save Ethiopia's independence. Huge consequences in Africa if that happens.

As for La Marmora, it would be a good thing that the man stays as far as possible from the position of Prime Minister, for sure, but he would still have an influence on Italian military - after all his career happened mostly under Cavour. In general I'm not sure that having Cavour in charge might improve overall coordination a lot.

I also think it's interesting not only of what positive targets the man could have achieved, but also of what negative targets could be dodged by postponing his demise. For about a generation the Italian government was a cliquish thing, with little groups steering policies this way and that, and this gave far too much influence to the King, and reduced the prestige of the Prime Ministers. Maybe having Cavour in charge longer could establish a stronger tradition of having the King reign but the Prime Minister rule, kinda like in England.

Cavour was also very much in favour of a stronger connection with France, and the balance in Europe could swing differently.

Last but not least, if he survives long enough, he might be a positive influence on both subsequent kings, Umberto II and Victor Emmanuel III, one just not very talented and far too authoritarian, and the other, I believe, quite competent and with good potential but really too detached from the realities of Italy and its people, and only really interested in the survival of the dynasty.
 
Internally, i don't know, he will try to promote industrialization and liberalism but Italy as some structural weakness that are hard to overcome aka poor on resources, maybe some better treatment/management of South Italy.
Oh, yes, definitely, definitely, definitely. If the South is not treated like a colony, and if its potential for growth could be encouraged in some way, reducing resentment and increasing loyalty for the central government, Italy could increase its potential economic power base by a very large amount. The South was in bad shape after the last Bourbons, but not that bad, and I think the mismanagement by the first generation of Italian politicians (almost all from the North) made a recovery impossible.
 
Regarding any feel of achievied his result, well there is still Veneto and Rome, but the capital is out of the question till the situation with the French is sorted out (even because Cavour, like Nappy III, will probably want an alliance between the two nations) so even if for internal reason he had declared the unity of Italy, Cavour will feel that the work his incomplete and for the reason stated above will concentrate on aquiring Veneto, for this reason i stated that some better preparation for the war will exist as the man was extremely methodic.
Oh I didn't mean that he died knowing that his mission was accomplished. I only meant that his role in history had been accomplished even if the final steps of the unification were done by others.

Where did I read that Cavour's goal was to unify but Northern Italy and had no designs on the Mezzogiorno until Garibaldi led the Expedition of the Thousand? Was it bullshit, then?
 
Oh I didn't mean that he died knowing that his mission was accomplished. I only meant that his role in history had been accomplished even if the final steps of the unification were done by others.

I think that he had spent his remaining years trying to modernize Italy and expand his influence throughs colonies and diplomacy but the great part of his energies were spent in the unification process and was a very streassfull process and frankly italian possibilities were limited by inherent factor. I think that the nationwill greatly benefit from his longer presence at the helm, but even Camillo Benso Count of Cavour can do miracles so great

Where did I read that Cavour's goal was to unify but Northern Italy and had no designs on the Mezzogiorno until Garibaldi led the Expedition of the Thousand? Was it bullshit, then?

No you are correct, he know that the South was too 'damaged' by the bourboun and it will be hard for the newly formed/expanded Kingdom to be burdened with them.
But fear that Garibaldi found a separate Republic and goes for Rome involving Italy in a war with France or in any case underwhelming the Savoyard monarchy mean that his hand was forced.
 
- Aceh, there were an attempt to make it an Italian protectorate but the interest ended when Bixio who was sent there for a scounting mission died and another was done on Papua Guinea but at the time the goverment was not really interested. Cavour was very favorable at the creation of coonies so more support is a given.

I'm actually really interested in this. Could there be a chance of an Aceh protectorate under Italy? What would the Dutch say about this?
 
Well one must consider that the health of Cavour was not great and the man basically united Italy single handely so was under a little stress.

In any case we can image that the Pod is the presence of his doctor during his last case of malaria so no use of bleeding as cure.

The biggest change that come in mind will be in foreign policy:

- The third war of independece (the southern front of the Austro-Prussian war of 1866) will play a little differently. If the man is still prime minister (a think almost certain) the preparation for the conflict will be more efficient as La Marmora will be no Prime Minister so he will not leave the place just before the war for commanding the army and frankly Cavour will rein both him and Cialdini so their rivalry will not cause the confusion on the conduction of the war (for not talking about the King coming to the front adding some problem). It will not change much on the end but the better performance will be good for Italy self esteem as the war will be a more clear victory and the Iron crow and Veneto will be given directely to Italy without the meddling of Nappy III, the real only change that i can see is Trentino being gained as it was occuppied by Garibaldi troops and the italian plan was to make the aquisition a fait accomplit.

- Aceh, there were an attempt to make it an Italian protectorate but the interest ended when Bixio who was sent there for a scounting mission died and another was done on Papua Guinea but at the time the goverment was not really interested. Cavour was very favorable at the creation of coonies so more support is a given.

- France, Cavour (as great part of the original piedmontese enstablishment) was very favorable to an alliance with France but the 'Roman Question' blocked any attempt from both parts to reach an agreement. I doubt that even Cavour can have the solution at this problem.

- General diplomatic isolation of Italy: frankly i doubt that the just born Kingdom of Italy with Cavour at the helm will be diplomatically isolated as OTL and if he found any occasion to attach Italy to another power he will use it.

The easiest POD is that Cavour would not be infected with malaria. Since when he died he was just 51 years old giving him at least another 15 years would not be asking too much.

The biggest gifts that Cavour would bring to the new kingdom of Italy (same as he brought to his native land of Piedmont-Sardinia) would be an international vision, an outstanding capacity for holding in check the king (and it was very much needed, trust me) and his outstanding capacity to navigate the shoals of parliament (as he demonstrated since the beginning when he built up a strong alliance with the moderate left of Urbano Rattazzi, voiding the attempt sponsored by the king and the prime minister D'Azeglio to engineer a turn to the right).

His leadership would be even more useful to drive the integration of the different (very different) parts of Italy which had applied for annexation or had been annexed tout-court in 1859-60. I am not sure if even Cavour would have been enough to make a full success, but at least he would have assured more stability and would have managed to oppose the alliance between the reactionary Piedmontese right (known as the Camarilla) and the equally reactionary landowners from southern Italy.
It goes without saying that Cavour would have continued his policy of industrialization and infrastructure building (chiefly the railways).
Internationally he would not be necessarily tied to France: the fact that in the 1850s he had by necessity played the French card would not have tied up his hands in the 1860s. IMHO the behavior of Nappy during the war of 1859 and immediately after (the unilateral armistice with Austria, the French clumsy attempt to dominate Italian politics, the support provided to the pope and the ouvertures to Austria in the early 1860s) were more than enough in themselves to be considered full payment for the French support that Cavour had masterfully engineered in the second half of the 1850s. However he was politician enough to know that the French alliance could be openly ditched only when a better one was ready to be formed: Austria was not a possibility, Russia the same, Prussia was still a glimmer on the horizon and the Great Britain of Disraeli (with all the sympathy of Cavour for that nation) was not an alliance on which the newly born kingdom could rely. However the importance of a surviving Cavour was also that he was a known player in Europe, and that his words were more likely to be heard than those of any other Italian prime minister of the 19th century. It would be interesting to see how the approach to the next war with Austria would be played (and another war with Austria was going to come: the situation both in Germany and in Italy was still too fluid for it to be avoided). It would be interesting to see how the relation between Bismarck and Cavour would play out: it is difficult that they would like each other on a personal basis since there could not be two more different personalities. Still both of them were very intelligent men, both of them clearly knew where they were going and how and both of them were more than capable to juggle a lot of eggs in the air without breaking a single one. It would be very good if Cavour would manage to get the right cues from the war of Schleswig-Holstein and from von Roon's reforms of the army: I don't expect that Italy would become a junior Prussia, but it is quite possible that the most rigid and ineffectual cronies of the king in the military might get sidelined (I'm thinking of La Marmora and Persano for example) in favour of new blood.
It's also a given that Italian policies toward the pope would be more assured: the outcome would not be different given the political scenario but at least there would not be a feeling that policies were always made on the spur of the moment.
The biggest question of all, however, is about the south: would Cavour recognize the need for a true land reform, embrace it and force it through parliament against the opposition of the right?

So basically what you're saying is that the man's footprint on history had been completed by the time of his death. Good for him.
What about his conflicts with Garibaldi? Couldn't that escalate into a serious problem with Cavour living?

When Cavour died his footprint in history was no more than 50% done: when the kingdom was proclaimed he said "Italy is made, now we have to make Italians"; his last words on his deathbed were "Free Church in a Free Nation".
Both of them are still quite true even today, but they also demonstrate that Cavour knew his work was very far from complete.

The legend of the hate between Garibaldi and Cavour has been very popular, but this does not make it true. Cavour considered Garibaldi a useful tool, and used him in 1859 and 1860 (don't tell me anyone believes Garibaldi could muster 1,000 men on the quays near Genoa, put them and all their supplies on ship and sail to Sicily without Cavour being informed and authorizing it). He would use again him in the 1860s if the occasion arises but would not let him go on haring on his own (a TTL Aspromonte or equivalent would end up in the same way). Garibaldi was quite pissed off by the French gaining Nice, where he was born, but was more of a gut reaction than a long-lasting grudge. In the end Garibaldi was aware that without Cavour there would not have been any unification.
 
I'm actually really interested in this. Could there be a chance of an Aceh protectorate under Italy? What would the Dutch say about this?

It is quite possible, in an Italy that performs better in the war of 1866 and has had a true prime minister at the helm since unification.
Even the acquisition of the coaling base at Assab by the Rubattino Shipping Lines was a very good step in the right direction.

What could the Dutch say? The Sultanate of Aceh is not unde the Dutch protection (they had to fight quite a bloody war to subdue it in the 1870s). With the establishment of an Italian protectorate Aceh could fight off any Dutch attempt to force the situation. Worse come to worse there might be some incident between Dutch and Italian warships.
I always thought that Italy should get more interested in the Far East rather than go looking for bloody settlement colonies in Africa.
 
Oh, yes, definitely, definitely, definitely. If the South is not treated like a colony, and if its potential for growth could be encouraged in some way, reducing resentment and increasing loyalty for the central government, Italy could increase its potential economic power base by a very large amount. The South was in bad shape after the last Bourbons, but not that bad, and I think the mismanagement by the first generation of Italian politicians (almost all from the North) made a recovery impossible.

As I said a couple of posts above, the south needed a serious land reform. A surviving Cavour might (too difficult to call) force this land reform against the opposition of the big landowners. I doubt also that Cavour would let him sucked into the bloody occupation policy of the early 1860s
 
It is quite possible, in an Italy that performs better in the war of 1866 and has had a true prime minister at the helm since unification.
Even the acquisition of the coaling base at Assab by the Rubattino Shipping Lines was a very good step in the right direction.

What could the Dutch say? The Sultanate of Aceh is not unde the Dutch protection (they had to fight quite a bloody war to subdue it in the 1870s). With the establishment of an Italian protectorate Aceh could fight off any Dutch attempt to force the situation. Worse come to worse there might be some incident between Dutch and Italian warships.
I always thought that Italy should get more interested in the Far East rather than go looking for bloody settlement colonies in Africa.

Hmm... this is really interesting. Thank you for planting a POD in my mind! :D
 
What could the Dutch say? The Sultanate of Aceh is not under the Dutch protection (they had to fight quite a bloody war to subdue it in the 1870s). With the establishment of an Italian protectorate Aceh could fight off any Dutch attempt to force the situation. Worse come to worse there might be some incident between Dutch and Italian warships.

I always thought that Italy should get more interested in the Far East rather than go looking for bloody settlement colonies in Africa.
Is there much more that they could really get involved with? The British and Dutch have already divided up Indonesia into spheres of influence, Burma whilst still technically independent is pretty much in British India's sphere, France is shortly going to be grabbing Cochinchina and won't look kindly on any Italian attempts to butt in, the British are well established on the Malay peninsula and shortly to cement things with the Treaty of Pangkor. I generally see an Aceh that transitions into an Italian colony as roughly similar to East Timor, if much more stubborn to eventually subdue. WWII might be interesting though as it could see the Dutch invade, only to then in turn be invaded by the Japanese. Not sure how they would handle things, on the one hand they had that whole anti-western colonialism rhetoric but on the other Italy is an ally or at least an ally of an ally. Perhaps it turns into a kind of Macao writ large? Post-war like East Timor even if they do become a separate country I'd see Indonesia invading and annexing them fairly quickly as with East Timor and West Papua. It's an interesting idea though.


The South was in bad shape after the last Bourbons, but not that bad, and I think the mismanagement by the first generation of Italian politicians (almost all from the North) made a recovery impossible.
I thought that the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies provided the lion's share of the cash for the Italian treasury when it was annexed? Of course that is different from the wider economy.
 
Is there much more that they could really get involved with? The British and Dutch have already divided up Indonesia into spheres of influence, Burma whilst still technically independent is pretty much in British India's sphere, France is shortly going to be grabbing Cochinchina and won't look kindly on any Italian attempts to butt in, the British are well established on the Malay peninsula and shortly to cement things with the Treaty of Pangkor. I generally see an Aceh that transitions into an Italian colony as roughly similar to East Timor, if much more stubborn to eventually subdue. WWII might be interesting though as it could see the Dutch invade, only to then in turn be invaded by the Japanese. Not sure how they would handle things, on the one hand they had that whole anti-western colonialism rhetoric but on the other Italy is an ally or at least an ally of an ally. Perhaps it turns into a kind of Macao writ large? Post-war like East Timor even if they do become a separate country I'd see Indonesia invading and annexing them fairly quickly as with East Timor and West Papua. It's an interesting idea though.

Well Borneo and New papua Guinea almost become italian colonies in OTL so some possible expansion can be done, but much depend on wich country Italy is allied.


I thought that the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies provided the lion's share of the cash for the Italian treasury when it was annexed? Of course that is different from the wider economy.

Basically the Two Sicilies were almost a failed nation at the time, sure the King had a sizeble personal treasure but just that.
 
As I said a couple of posts above, the south needed a serious land reform. A surviving Cavour might (too difficult to call) force this land reform against the opposition of the big landowners. I doubt also that Cavour would let him sucked into the bloody occupation policy of the early 1860s

Honestly, there is a 'revisionist' view of the 'Reunification', where somes accused it even of being more a 'colonialism' or at least 'conquest' of the southern states, and that it always ended screwing the south.... Cavour and the King specially are accused of being responsible I overheard, being the more conservative-economical (northern) bourgeois and nobles backers. Pointed is a darkening of the Two Sicilly Kingdom's portrait as 'backward' and all this.

Maybe Garibaldi and/or others could have made that more radically move of land reforms but with a fairer result for the farmers of the south and all this, and in the end, the South would have had been in a better state by now. Maybe.
 
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It is quite possible, in an Italy that performs better in the war of 1866 and has had a true prime minister at the helm since unification.
Even the acquisition of the coaling base at Assab by the Rubattino Shipping Lines was a very good step in the right direction.

What could the Dutch say? The Sultanate of Aceh is not unde the Dutch protection (they had to fight quite a bloody war to subdue it in the 1870s). With the establishment of an Italian protectorate Aceh could fight off any Dutch attempt to force the situation. Worse come to worse there might be some incident between Dutch and Italian warships.
I always thought that Italy should get more interested in the Far East rather than go looking for bloody settlement colonies in Africa.

Given that the Dutch East Indies were quite well established by this point and Italy thus will have longer logistical lines, I wouldn't write them off entirely. That being said an Italian protectorate of Atjeh might be a too big gamble for the by this point quite isolationist and not as industrialized as most of the direct neighbours kingdom of the Netherlands. OTOH the 'emerald belt'* ('empire of Insulindia')* is (was) the 'jewel in the crown' of the Dutch colonial empire, so they will want to protect their interests there.
That being said, Italy could get some pieces of the remaining unclaimed parts, however the already established powers in the region (of which the Netherlands is one) won't stand idly by without protecting their interests.

(*= both terms were also used by Multatuli, who wrote about the misdeeds done there in the name of the king of the Netherlands)
 
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