Come Fly The Cutthroat Skies: The US Aviation Industry 2001-2013

While the Battle of Britain will forever hold the title of the greatest air battle of the 20th century, the 21st century dawned with an entirely new form of combat at 20,000 feet. Instead of Spitfires vs. Me-109s, this form of combat involved the battle for supremacy of America's skies; its chief combattants carriers like TWA, United, and Northwest. Throw in the challenges caused by international terrorism, OPEC, and fraught labor relations in addition to the battles waged between the likes of Airbus and Boeing, and one has what just might be the most interesting business story of the last decade and a half. Our story begins at the crossroads of America in St. Louis, MO on a cold February day, where the beleaguered TWA, a shadow of its once glorious self began the epic struggle for control of America's airways, airports, and routes.

February 7th, 2001
St. Louis, MO

"Good morning, here at KSDK St. Louis we're tracking the breaking news that Phoenix based America West Airlines has reached an agreement to buy TWA's assets out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The report states that the combined airline will maintain hubs in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Columbus, and St. Louis as well as focus cities at JFK and San Juan. No word yet on where the new airline will be headquartered. Some airline analysts see large upside in the deal, which will allow TWA to get out from an unfavorable ticket agreement signed with Carl Icahn, renegotiate lease rates on aircraft, and the complimentary nature of their route networks."
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In Fort Worth, Donald Carty was mired in frustration. American had also been looking to buy TWA's assets, which it saw as a much needed relief valve for its perpetually packed operation at Chicago's O'Hare; it's megahub at DFW could only handle so much more. AA had also been kicking the tires of Minneapolis based Northwest, but that was buying way too much Midwest capacity; the combined airline would have a line of almost continual hubs from Detroit to Dallas, though he'd love to have the Tokyo route authorities. In the mid term, now that TWA was out of play, his focus shifted to growing what was already a goldmine at Miami International Airport.

Meanwhile in Chicago and Crystal City, things were not going well for James Goodwin and Steven Wolf either either. United had suffered through the “Summer of Hell” in a dispute with ALPA over in 2000 which had driven the airline's reputation through the floor. Furthermore, the megamerger between United and US Airways was all but dead due to labor issues and regulatory hurdles, which left both airlines geographically in the lurch. United's only East Coast hub was at Washington Dulles and was the region's third choice for domestic traffic, although it's transatlantic operations were largely profitable. Conversely, US Airways lacked a hub west of Pittsburgh, though it was the carrier of choice for Northeastern businessmen; the airline was also stuck with the world's most complex fleet and operated no fewer than seven different families of narrowbodies from museum worthy DC-9s and 727s to new state of the art A320s; somewhere in between were the airline's 737, 757, MD-80, and F100 fleets.

At Delta's headquarters outside of Atlanta Hartsfield, things were swimming along. The airline had largely consolidated control of the Atlanta market following the collapse of Eastern, and had built a huge success story with its ever expanding Regional Jet hub at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky. Delta had a robust European network and was making inroads into South America from Atlanta; the immense connection opportunities and ease of use available made it a stronger hub when compared to American's Miami hub, although Carty was expanding there like crazy. What Delta did not have and wanted very badly was anything resembling an Asian operation; in fact its sole route was Atlanta-Tokyo. Compounding matters, it had by far the weakest Asian partner of the big six in Korean Air.

Northwest had that extensive Asian operation and a strong transatlantic alliance with KLM to manage traffic to Europe. Of the 6 legacy carriers, it had the weakest set of hubs, but it used them to its advantage. Unlike Delta, United, and American, its strength was predicated on being the dominant carrier in the Midwest, which was bracketed with hubs in Detroit, Minneapolis, and its Southern toehold in Memphis. Outside of Chicago, Northwest owned the region.

Continental had emerged from the rubble of Frank Lorenzo's empire and had managed to turn itself around from a laughingstock to a much more respected carrier. It had turned the former Peoples Express hub into the New York region's only comprehensive airline hub and was poised to start a series of new Asian routes that bypassed hubs like San Francisco and Los Angeles on the West Coast. It was also vigorously expanding from its Houston hub using regional jets to serve previously inaccessible long, thin routes where larger 737s would have lost an ocean of money. It had also been highly aggressive in expanding into second tier Mexican destinations that had never seen transborder service.

On the other side of the DFW Metroplex, Southwest was still kicking everyone else's butt and taking names. It had managed to establish a hub at Baltimore/Washington where it has causing US Airways no amount of grief with in the Northeast. It was also expanding slowly but steadily out of its Midwest base at Midway and was running circles around United in California. It was even beginning to tiptoe into the New York City market. The news of the America West/TWA deal was something of a disappointment; Southwest had been hurting TWA badly with a strong operation in St. Louis. With Karabou gone and a management team in Phoenix who knew how to take on Southwest from first hand experience, things were about to get much more interesting in the near future.......
 
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T-Dub Lives!!

I'd expect America West to take the TWA branding for brand recognition purposes. I'd also expect HQ to remain in Tempe as I believe the business climate of Phoenix was better at the time than STL--although like OTL United/Continental's choice of Chicago over Houston, if STL were to throw enough incentives towards the new TWA I could see them moving it. I'd expect to see the Columbus hub eliminated as soon as legally possible similarly to OTL Delta's eliminating of the Memphis hub. The extra capacity would be routed to JFK and Lambert (especially with Lambert's new runway coming online in 2006-2007). There's a lot of resentment OTL from former T-Dub employee's over AA's treatment of their seniority lists. Unfortunately, I'm not sure how much better it be with America West as OTL USAirways' unions were still split between West (America West) and East (USAir) up to the merger announcement with American.

The fleet makeup would be interesting. I'd expect TWA to take up the rest of the 717 order as the plane would be very useful out of the STL hub as well as on intra-west flights out of Phoenix. The A318s on order would most likely be converted to more A320s and A319s as America West already had a boatload of them. The larger Airbuses could do East Coast-Phoenix and any of the STL flights with ease while the true transcons out of JFK and the LAX focus city would be done with 757s on the trunk routes and A319s on the thinner segments. Upgraded A320s and new more capable A321s would be brought online over the next 10 years as was done with OTL USAirways. The extra legs of the A318 would not be needed on the network--as Frontier's A318 fleet (now parted out or sold off after 5-7 years of service) attests to, the extra seats carried by the A319 for roughly the same trip cost as the A318 outweigh the benefits of the latter's slightly better performance. I'd also expect the new TWA to follow through with the planned A330 order for Europe flights and maybe the rumored STL-Tokyo run. The extra feed from the West provided by America West's network would help the transatlantic network out of JFK. The strengthening of the JFK hub coupled with America West's LCC model may actually strangle JetBlue's growth some as well as prevent Delta from building up their large international gateway at JFK in the mid to late 2000s.

That said, assuming nothing changes with 9/11, plus the aftermath of the dot com bubble would result in a similar industry outlook as OTL's. Paycuts, lay-offs, Chapter 11, and maybe some airline closures would be the norm just as it was OTL. I still see a major round of consolidation in the marketplace, just with different players. Southwest would probably remain somewhat similar to OTL, concentrating on entering new markets like Denver, Philly, and LaGuardia long considered as no-go's for the old Southwest. Frontier may be gobbled up by LUV rather than AirTran. I could see Delta potentially merging with Continental, especially considering the inevitable closure of Delta's DFW hub or if the new TWA was strong enough to make Delta think twice about ramping up JFK-why not make the existing Continental Newark hub your gateway instead? The other mergers are less clear-cut. Both AA and United are strong in the Midwest, making a merger with Northwest less beneficial than it was to Delta, although both would kill to gain Northwest's Pacific network. Continental and Northwest could also merge forming a solid competitor to Delta, American, and United. But then the new TWA (and USAirways) finds itself in the same position OTL Continental, USAirways, and Northwest found themselves--too small to compete long term with the behemoths that are United, American, and Delta. In that case, the new TWA merges with USAirways, essentially creating OTL's USAirways with a Midwestern hub and a decision on how to run twin Atlantic gateways at both Philly and JFK. Or maybe the proposed United-USAir tieup happens after all several years late

The other scenario is that either US Airways or United goes totally belly up between 2003-2005 with the parts being sold for scrap as was done with Pan Am, Eastern, and to a lesser extent, Braniff. You'd have a scramble between the survivors for assets like the Charlotte, O'Hare, and San Francisco hubs.
 
A quick, but big update. Sorry for the delays....

February 26, 2001

It was easily Boeing's biggest day of news coverage since the launch of the 747 in the 1960s, and even outweighed the press Airbus had gotten for it's A380 whalejet. Phil Condit was all smiles as he walked up to the podium and proclaimed "Ladies and gentlemen, I'm proud to announce the launch of a new aircraft for the new millennium; we're happily joined in this announcement by our launch partners British Airways, All Nippon Airways, and Emirates Airlines.....I give you the Boeing 808 Sonic Cruiser!"

March 1, 2001

The new TWA announces plans to convert its existing A318 orders into deliveries for the A330-200/300 family of widebodies to replace it's aging 747 fleet.
 
FYI: The TWA website is apparantly still active,

as in, I tried to order a ticket to New York from DFW for tomorrow :p

"No flights availible" :D
 
The Coming Battles of Flushing Bay and Orange County.....

March 14, 2001

Orange County, California

Orange County's Board of Supervisors votes 3-2 to build a new international airport at the former MCAS El Toro. The plans initially call for a 45 gate facility that will ultimately replace the existing SNA airport. Almost immediately, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, and Continental indicate interest in being an anchor hub tenant.

Throughout March-April, 2001

Atlanta, GA

Leo Mullin instruct's Delta's strategic planning department to look at three major initiatives:

1) The possibility of moving it's DFW hub to the rapidly booming Austin metropolis in a smaller downsized form.
2a) The effects of a merger with Alaska Airlines
2b) The effects of a merger with Northwest Airlines.

Fort Worth, TX

Donald Carty decides that American will finally build a full scale connecting East Coast hub at New York's John F. Kennedy Airport. Over the next several weeks, AA grabs every single slot they can with the intention of eventually building a replica of Continental's Newark operation. In the short term, AA begins to strip Eagle flights from Chicago and DFW to sit on these slots. The play is largely successful, although Delta and JetBlue make plays for slots as well, though by the end of the year, American's Silverbirds dominate JFK.

Coming tomorrow: United, Continental, TWA/America West
Sunday: US Airways, Southwest, JetBlue
 
A Long Belated Update (The Things You Do With Snow Days)

April-May-June-July-August, 2001

-Northwest Airlines announces plans to build a joint transpacific hub in partnership with Alaska Airlines. Northwest will add domestic A-319 service from Kennedy, Boston, Washington Dulles, Chicago, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Kansas City, and upgauge frequencies from Detroit, Memphis, and Minneapolis. Internationally, Northwest will begin service to Osaka, Seoul, and Beijing and upgauge services to Tokyo.

-Delta rolls out an expansion of it's hub at Cincinnati with RJ service to 15 new markets and announces summer seasonal services to Milan and Madrid.

-TWA announces a significant expansion of services from JFK, adding domestic connecting routes to Denver, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Seattle, Dallas, and Houston. It also adds regional RJ capacity with flights to 10 markets: Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis, Nashville, Montreal, Toronto, and Raleigh/Durham. Internationally, the airline announces services to Montego Bay, St. Thomas, Rome, Madrid/Barcelona, and Amsterdam.

-Continental announces plans to begin 777-200 services to Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Delhi, and Mumbai in a massive longhaul service expansion as a reaction to the significant (and in AA's case, massive) expansion at JFK.

-US Airways quietly begins talks for a partnership with the new TWA, leveraging it's Western strength.

The airline industry was humming along, and moving (ever so slowly) towards further consolidation as the awful disaster of September 10th loomed.
 
September 10th, 2001

The impact of the September 10th, 2001 tragedy on the airline industry were far reaching, and it was obvious that there would have to be significant changes to the airline industry as a result.

At 902AM, Delta Air Lines Flight 754, a Boeing 757-200, pushed back from the Concourse B at Washington National, bound for Atlanta Hartsfield. The short haul flight was fully loaded with Monday morning commuters bound for destinations nationwide. As it took off to the west, and just as it had lifted off, a flock of birds flew in it's way, destroying both engines simultaneously. The plane never made it past Rosslyn, crashing into an office building at 917AM. In addition to the 162 passengers and crew aboard, a further 241 people are killed on the ground in the aftermath.

National had always been viewed as a difficult airport operationally, with little margin for error. In the wake of over 400 people dead after the Delta crash, calls are eventually heeded to close it and shift services and resources to Dulles and BWI. It was a windfall for United and Southwest, and a severe wound to US Airways, which had for years operated an extremely profitable mini-hub there. In the aftermath, it shifted the National operation north to BWI's Concourse D and began efforts to build a competitive comprehensive hub there, beginning services to London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, and Munich.

Only four years later would the nation learn that the Delta crash had collapsed a plan to hijack 5 airliners and fly them into targets in New York and DC. The increased security and scrutiny nationwide had forced Mohammed Atta to abort the plan.
 
Can't believed I missed the updates! Subscribing! Also, Continental had launched flights to Hong Kong in March 2001 BTW. Something to correct.
 
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