Is it possible for a victorious Confederate States of America to become a communist state? What effects would this have on the United States of America?
WI: A Communist CSA?
- Thread starter TwiliAlchemist
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Anaxagoras
Banned
Collectivism goes against the social and political traditions the South had fervently supported and fought to protect pretty much since Jamestown had been founded in 1607. Communism? Not in a million years. Even during the war, when Richmond and the state governments had to intervene in the economy in ways inconceivable before, there had been intense opposition. If the South had succeeded in winning its independence, future moves towards collectivist policies would have gotten any member of Congress or any state legislature thrown out of office pretty quickly.
True, in theory. But in the real world the CSA 1) Had more bureaucrats than the USA 2) had internal passports 3) had socialized the various saltworks 4) socialized alcohol production 5) had price controls 6) had wage controls 7) forced banks to extend various debts 8) forced railroads to run at a loss 8) Forced shippers to ship in government cargo for free. It could EASILY go the Communist route. Indeed, it was a long ways there.
Anaxagoras
Banned
This is all true, but it was also due to trying to build a country basically from scratch while fighting a war against a much more powerful enemy. Had the Confederacy achieved independence, I would expect a powerful backlash against government power (albeit with difficulty, considering the debt load the Confederacy would face).
Why are you assuming that Communism, or even serious political change of any stripe, would have to come through constitutional means in the CSA?
The South was economically and socially backward and its constitution and politics gave themselves over to rigidity and a strong entrenchment of existing power structures. I'd say that's pretty much a textbook recipe for serious political unrest and instability, both on the left and right.
You can have command economy, internal passports etc with being communist, look at fascism/nazism for example. States rights were enshrined the in CSA constitution, so there are limits to central government control but certain elements can be central, and other "control" elements state mandated but same/similar across the CSA. Communism as such was totally antithetical to everything the CSA stood for.
To get that you need a revolution.
To get that you need a revolution.
The differences between Fascists and Communists aren't that great. They were both totalitarian dictatorships, having command economies and internal passports. The number of things they had in common were more in number than things they were different in. They both had allowed virtually no freedoms whatsoever, had the economy almost totally controlled by the state, were one party states or at most "multiparty" states which had one governing party with a number of minor puppet parties beneath it. They aren't totally identical but they are very close, particularly the Stalinist/Maoist variety.
I would imagine an independent south, with a failing economy post-1900, and an extremely large lower class of whites, not to mention slaves, who would be annoyed with the upper classes having all the wealth, might actually support a revolution to at least topple the elite. From there, it could easily turn to communism.
Sideways
Donor
The strong rejection of communism by those in charge could easily lead people towards it, rather than away from it. Communism in the CSA would come about because of black rebels and white radicals. Basically, people who were unable to make the changes they could want through constitutional means. I could see them turning to a form of Communism as an alternative.
I imagine it would be a communism strongly influenced by African nationalism, it could be interesting as a distinct tradition from European communism.
I imagine it would be a communism strongly influenced by African nationalism, it could be interesting as a distinct tradition from European communism.
A revolution that is socilaist in character could probably happen in the CSA, although I doubt it would be instituted by the CSA government itself but something that topples it. Personally though I'd expect Anarchism to be the far left ideology that has the most appeal in the south. Agricultural societies tend to gravitate more towards anarchism when they start adopting radical ideologies and their ideas of collective land ownership will likely appeal to white farmers.
I'd actually say that their socialism would probably be if anything more internationalist in character, because if socialism is the thing that brings together poor whites and slaves then it's going to want to avoid connotations of African nationalism.
I'd actually say that their socialism would probably be if anything more internationalist in character, because if socialism is the thing that brings together poor whites and slaves then it's going to want to avoid connotations of African nationalism.
I haven't had time to read it thoroughly or I'd give you some summary, but there was a thread on this subject a while back that might provide some ideas:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=233798
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=233798
An independent CSA is, as the discussion on minority rights in the CSA pointed out several times, a demographic time bomb with the clock set on random. When the vast majority of the population, black and white, are politically disenfranchised and the black population is also completely economically and socially disenfranchised, oppressed, and exploited by one of the cruelest regimes of exploitation imaginable it becomes a question of more when, not if, the whole thing comes flying apart at the seams.
Add in the general reactionary mindset of the CSA's leadership, the whole "we can whip them rioters no problem" mentality likely encouraged by the vindication of the, "one good Southron can whip ten Damnyankees no problem!" myth and you're going to get a power structure that uses the whip as its first answer to social problems facing a population that over time is going to fear the lash less and hate it, and those holding it, more.
The only real question is what ideology is going to mobilize the masses and given American radicalism and other factors I agree with eliphas it would probably be some kind of anarchist strain and bear far more resemblance to Zapata and the Zapatistas than Lenin and the Bolsheviks.
TFSmith121
Banned
Anarchy in the CSA!
Is this the C.S.A. or
Is this the K.K.K. or
Is this the T.R.A.
I thought it was the CSA!
Actually, my bet is things fall apart, because the center damn well could not hold...
Again, I have no idea how a "victorious CSA" could come about (since no one else had ever offered one up, absent time-travelling small arms dealers, etc.), but let's say something resembling at least the lower South manages to break off and survives in 1860-61. US does not call for troops, but does impose blockade pending CSA recognition of US transit rights on Mississippi.
South Carolina alone is too small (too big for an asylum) but let's say its South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas; capital is Montgomery, Alabama, and the first president is Davis.
US blockade, southern embargo, stockpiling, and British and French development of alternate sources for cotton tend to crash CSA's export-oriented economy in 1861-62, but by 1863, the rebels agree to demilitarize the Mississippi from the mouth of the Mississippi to Natchez. In return, the US lifts the blockade and recognizes the independence of the CSA and/or seven separate states.
My guess is that by 1870, Texas will be independent, fighting a generally stalemated guerrilla war with the Comanche armed by the US and a French-occupied Mexico, and will have annexed Louisiana west of the river. Mississippi will have annexed Louisiana east of the river, but denies access to the river to the other CSA states; they, in turn, threaten to blockade Mississippi's Gulf ports. Alabama sides with Mississippi, and Georgia invades and annexes Florida. South Carolina declares iteself an independent republic. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states.
By 1880, Texas and Franco-Mexico are at war; Mississippi and Alabama are unified, but there is an active pro-unionist rebellion in the northern counties of each former state; Georgia is at war with various factions in Florida, which tend to retreat into the swamps when hard-pressed. South Carolina declares itself an empire. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states
By 1890, Texas has broken into at least five sucessor states; South Texas is a proxy of Mexico; East Texas is a proxy of the US. North Texas is governed by various competing outlaw bands; Central Texas is governed by the People's Commission of Austin; West Texas is governed by the Great Chief Quanah. Greater Alabama is at war with Greater Georgia; the Republic of Jones has asked for annexation into Tennessee. South Carolina declares itself a kingdom. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states
By 1900, Mexico annexes South Texas; the US annexes East Texas to Arkansas; North Texas is governed by a heriditary military dictatorship; Central Texas is governed by the First Consul, a heriditary communist dictator; West Texas has been annexed by the US into New Mexico. Greater Georgia has conquered Greater Alabama, and declares itself the Reformed Confederate States of America, with the capital at Atlanta; rebellions break out throughout Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi; South Carolina declares itself a theocracy. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states
By 1910, North Texas has been annexed by the US into the new state of Sequoyah; Central Texas has been annexed by Mexico; the Reformed Confederate States of America has splintered into roughly 50-county size warlord-level states, including all-white, all-black, and everything in between, with political systems supposedly based on every philosophy from syndicalism to pure democracy; they pretty much all amount to barrel of a gun oligarchies; South Carolina declares itself the heavenly kingdom of St. Robert of Lee, and worships the saint's last horse as the living embodiment of the prophet. Rebellions break out throughout South Carolina. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states
By 1920, the League of Nations grants the United States a mandate over all of its former territory; Gen. John J. Pershing is appointed military governor and imposes martial law in the Department of the South, using the USCTs to crush all opposition. Most of the handful of surviving civilians applaud. Jeff Davis VI, grand kleagle of the Konfederate Klan, is crucified, hung, drawn and quartered, shot, and blown from the muzzle of a 76 mm ordnance rifle at Stone Mountain, Georgia. Slaves do not rebel across the former CSA states
Best,
Is this the C.S.A. or
Is this the K.K.K. or
Is this the T.R.A.
I thought it was the CSA!
Actually, my bet is things fall apart, because the center damn well could not hold...
Again, I have no idea how a "victorious CSA" could come about (since no one else had ever offered one up, absent time-travelling small arms dealers, etc.), but let's say something resembling at least the lower South manages to break off and survives in 1860-61. US does not call for troops, but does impose blockade pending CSA recognition of US transit rights on Mississippi.
South Carolina alone is too small (too big for an asylum) but let's say its South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas; capital is Montgomery, Alabama, and the first president is Davis.
US blockade, southern embargo, stockpiling, and British and French development of alternate sources for cotton tend to crash CSA's export-oriented economy in 1861-62, but by 1863, the rebels agree to demilitarize the Mississippi from the mouth of the Mississippi to Natchez. In return, the US lifts the blockade and recognizes the independence of the CSA and/or seven separate states.
My guess is that by 1870, Texas will be independent, fighting a generally stalemated guerrilla war with the Comanche armed by the US and a French-occupied Mexico, and will have annexed Louisiana west of the river. Mississippi will have annexed Louisiana east of the river, but denies access to the river to the other CSA states; they, in turn, threaten to blockade Mississippi's Gulf ports. Alabama sides with Mississippi, and Georgia invades and annexes Florida. South Carolina declares iteself an independent republic. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states.
By 1880, Texas and Franco-Mexico are at war; Mississippi and Alabama are unified, but there is an active pro-unionist rebellion in the northern counties of each former state; Georgia is at war with various factions in Florida, which tend to retreat into the swamps when hard-pressed. South Carolina declares itself an empire. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states
By 1890, Texas has broken into at least five sucessor states; South Texas is a proxy of Mexico; East Texas is a proxy of the US. North Texas is governed by various competing outlaw bands; Central Texas is governed by the People's Commission of Austin; West Texas is governed by the Great Chief Quanah. Greater Alabama is at war with Greater Georgia; the Republic of Jones has asked for annexation into Tennessee. South Carolina declares itself a kingdom. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states
By 1900, Mexico annexes South Texas; the US annexes East Texas to Arkansas; North Texas is governed by a heriditary military dictatorship; Central Texas is governed by the First Consul, a heriditary communist dictator; West Texas has been annexed by the US into New Mexico. Greater Georgia has conquered Greater Alabama, and declares itself the Reformed Confederate States of America, with the capital at Atlanta; rebellions break out throughout Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi; South Carolina declares itself a theocracy. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states
By 1910, North Texas has been annexed by the US into the new state of Sequoyah; Central Texas has been annexed by Mexico; the Reformed Confederate States of America has splintered into roughly 50-county size warlord-level states, including all-white, all-black, and everything in between, with political systems supposedly based on every philosophy from syndicalism to pure democracy; they pretty much all amount to barrel of a gun oligarchies; South Carolina declares itself the heavenly kingdom of St. Robert of Lee, and worships the saint's last horse as the living embodiment of the prophet. Rebellions break out throughout South Carolina. Slaves rebel across the former CSA states
By 1920, the League of Nations grants the United States a mandate over all of its former territory; Gen. John J. Pershing is appointed military governor and imposes martial law in the Department of the South, using the USCTs to crush all opposition. Most of the handful of surviving civilians applaud. Jeff Davis VI, grand kleagle of the Konfederate Klan, is crucified, hung, drawn and quartered, shot, and blown from the muzzle of a 76 mm ordnance rifle at Stone Mountain, Georgia. Slaves do not rebel across the former CSA states
Best,
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Not necessarily it was most of the way there OTL. It was pretty much running whatever resembled an economy for most of the war. It will be nearly impossible to deny CSA Army vets the vote after the war. Poll taxes and the like will no longer be as acceptable to the veterans who feel they have EARNED the right to vote through valor. Eventually they control the government and now the government is run on behalf of the CSA Army vets most of whom aren't planters. Since the economy would be being run mostly by the government anyways....
State intervention into the economy and management of aspects of it, especially during wartime, does not a communist government make. You also forget the planter class would likely roll back anything they'd see as a problem since they are the ones who control the officer corps, the government, and own all the best farmland.
And however many veterans that is won't be enough to seriously tip the balance when you can introduce measures like apportioning votes based on how much property you own, denying the vote to anyone who doesn't own and slave and providing one for each vet as a twisted kind of pension as a way to buy them off, and any number of other tactics available in the antebellum South that were used to maintain the powerbase of the planter elites.
If the CSA goes socialist or communist, given the conditions and what those philosophies call for, it is going to be through bloody revolution.
Some intervention, no. The South was way past some intervention though, outside the plantations themselves the government pretty much was the economy and if that isn't Communism it is very damn close.
Pulling those kind of voter limiting tricks after the war worked because it was enforced mainly on Blacks. White suffrage expanded greatly after the war down south and I doubt winning the war would change it. Southern vets figured they EARNED the right to vote without being tricked out of it. They paid in blood and knew it.
But they don't have Ideological Capability to keep everything in state control...
They were making up there ideology as they were going along, like every other government. If all Jeff Davis needs is ideology to keep the county under his total control he will make one up.
But once the war was over, lots of those changes would be rolled back. Compare w/ the USA in WWII (I know, apples to oranges to some extent); the government exercised extensive control over the economy, and yet somehow failed to descend into communism post-war. Besides, "outside the plantations" ignores a massive chunk of the Southern economy.
So I doubt the CSA's government is going to want to institute communism. I agree that veterans will be restless, and they may be attracted to communist movements after the war (although I could just as easily see them going in a populist/radical nationalist direction). But yes, a communist revolution is certainly a possibility.
One concern, of course, is the USA. The North certainly won't go communist, and Northern leaders are going to freak out at the possibility of communists on their border (especially white, English-speaking communists who could easily infiltrate/spread propaganda). Unlike OTL, expect this communist revolution to face sustained American intervention against the "Red Menace."