ThePest179
Banned
What if the US stayed with its policy of Vietnamization instead of changing gears and sending the troops back in?
DBWI: No re-intervention in Vietnam?
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Nixon also probably would not have been assassinated in '71 to. We might even have had a President Agnew on our hands.
Realpolitik
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Exactly right. Nixon was the leader who could do Vietnamization without a conservative revolt, who nevertheless wanted to end the war somehow. Anyone to the right of him wanted escalation.
The goddamned hippies struck yet *another* effective blow against the war when they shot him in '69. First they get him elected, then they killed him.
The goddamned hippies struck yet *another* effective blow against the war when they shot him in '69. First they get him elected, then they killed him.
Hippies? I thought Arthur Bremer shot Nixon in 1971, not 69.
Shesh! That seems much to the poor man.
Going back to the question, how might this effect the neighbors. Agnew's escalation led to the covert attacks on Laos and Cambodia. This would led to the communist takeovers in both countries, and eventually to events like the Thai Civil War. Would those events still happen?
We wouldn't have had the heavy American investment in South Vietnam post-war, that's for sure. Or the economic growth in the '80s, especially once oil production kicked off in the Cuu Long basin. As things are, South Vietnam's a rich little nation these days. Shame about their...shaky democratic record, of course...
Incidentally, what does anyone think of President Pham's visit to Manila this week? At the same time as the Japanese Prime Minister, no less. Could we be seeing the three nations' unofficial 'China can't have our islands' club making things official?
Incidentally, what does anyone think of President Pham's visit to Manila this week? At the same time as the Japanese Prime Minister, no less. Could we be seeing the three nations' unofficial 'China can't have our islands' club making things official?
We wouldn't have had the heavy American investment in South Vietnam post-war, that's for sure. Or the economic growth in the '80s, especially once oil production kicked off in the Cuu Long basin. As things are, South Vietnam's a rich little nation these days. Shame about their...shaky democratic record, of course...
Incidentally, what does anyone think of President Pham's visit to Manila this week? At the same time as the Japanese Prime Minister, no less. Could we be seeing the three nations' unofficial 'China can't have our islands' club making things official?
Not to mention China's heavy investment in North Vietnam. It's been doing rather well itself, having transitioned into a mixed economy. It's somewhat of a less nightmarish North Korea.
There are rumors of an anti-Chinese alliance. I've even heard that Thailand would join such an alliance, if only because China funded the communist partisans during the Civil War.
ThePest179
Banned
Well it wasn't permanent, at least.
They were as covert as a parade of elephants.
Probably. Without any US troops in South Vietnam, the communists in Cambodia and especially Laos would have a much easier time of it, and Thailand might even be communist without US aid.
'Least the Khmer Rouge got overthrown in the 80s. That might not happen if the US withdrawals.
Shame about their...shaky democratic record, of course...
"Shaky" is a generous term. They're as bad as South Korea or Taiwan.
Yeah...and the KMT remnants in Thailand sided with the Thai government. Leading to some of the uglier incidents of that war... I'd say they'll join, alright. Especially since it could lead to more foreign capital coming in, as well as military cooperation.
I know - a Vietnamese friend of mine from college told me how his family had found it...advisable to leave when Pham came to power.
ThePest179
Banned
While I enjoy speaking about East Asian politics, I'd appreciate it if we got back on track.
So, do you guys think South Vietnam would get invaded by the North if the US pulled out? I doubt the Saigon government would collapse (the US would intervene before that ever happens), but perhaps the South is reduced to a rump state, a shadow of its former self? Maybe?
So, do you guys think South Vietnam would get invaded by the North if the US pulled out? I doubt the Saigon government would collapse (the US would intervene before that ever happens), but perhaps the South is reduced to a rump state, a shadow of its former self? Maybe?
While I enjoy speaking about East Asian politics, I'd appreciate it if we got back on track.
So, do you guys think South Vietnam would get invaded by the North if the US pulled out? I doubt the Saigon government would collapse (the US would intervene before that ever happens), but perhaps the South is reduced to a rump state, a shadow of its former self? Maybe?
Oh, almost certainly. Once the US pulls out, there is no need for guerilla tactics, so the North could just go through a standard invasion. The only reason they didn't here was because US troops remained in the country until 1985, and by then, the two countries had largely made peace. And, maybe Saigon would fall, because the South Vietnamese wouldn't be well equipped enough to combat them. In fact, a document recently released stated that, had North Vietnam unified the country, Saigon would have been called Ho Chi Minh City.
That really depends. I mean, look at the anti-war protests that went on throughout the conflict - not just by college students, but by actual veterans. If there'd been a 'Vietnamisation', if American troops had pulled out...with so much anti-war feeling, could any President have sent them back in again? Even if the Saigon government looked to be collapsing?
I think, without a 'win' in Vietnam, there wouldn't have been any appetite for the interventions that followed. I really doubt that we'd have seen US troops on the ground in Chile, for instance.
ThePest179
Banned
Well, Chile was over in a few months. It wasn't as extensive as Somalia, or even Thailand for that matter.
Speaking of which, if NV unites the country (when do you think that might occur anyways?) what would the butterflies be? The USSR and PRC hated each other, but found common ground with Vietnam. Might that mutual alliance collapse sooner with an NV victory? Would the Soviets pull out of Afghanistan instead of modeling their war on ours (maybe they would avoid it altogether)? And would the US still back the regime in South Korea?
I'm guessing that 1975-1977 would be the point where North Vietnam would unify the country. I would say some butterflies include the Soviets possibly avoiding Afganistan, America ramping up its support of anti-communism during the 80's, not trying to wind it down, and less Vietnamese refugees and immigrants flooding into the US and China.