Sure, the Dutch strategically won most of the battles in the Indonesian revolution. Too bad winning a war was never that simple.
That being said, the Republic winning the war was not inevitable. The Indonesian Revolution saw a lot of infighting. Was it not for Soekarno, the revolution could have collapsed in on itself. It's very unlikely, but it's possible to have a scenario that the Netherlands turn out to be the best of three or four evils for both the Americans and the local populace. Will it be pretty? Hell no. More will probably die there than during the Japanese occupation.
Now, let's assume that this somehow happened. What will happen next?
First we have to catch up on some boring OTL stuff. I apologize for the incoming wall of text.
Well, the Dutch policy on what to do if they reclaimed the Indies gradually changed along the war. In 1942, after losing NEI, Queen Wilhelmina made a promise in a speech that the Netherlands will grant independence to her colony if they can ever retake Indonesia. She said:
"I visualize, without anticipating the recommendations of the future conference, that they will be directed towards a commonwealth in which the Netherlands. Indonesia, Suriname and Curacao will participate, with complete self-reliance and freedom of conduct for each part regarding its internal affairs, but with the readiness to render mutual assistance."
Here's the catch though. She literally said that. It wasn't a translation. The promise of independence was only ever made by the Queen orally in a language that most of her people does not understand. So was it a sincere promise or a desperate attempt to appeal to the Americans and the British? Remember that this was the same Queen who approved of the Ethical Policy. You can read the full transcript of the speech
here.
What we can say though, at the very start, the people in charge of preparing Indonesia for her independence were sincere in their wishes. Hubertus Johannes van Mook was born and raised in Indonesia. He was not trusted by many Dutch officials because he was a liberal from the Indies, which naturally meant he sympathized with the Indonesian national movement.
His right hand man was a Javanese man named Raden Abdulkadir Widjojoatmodjo. He studied Indology, and built his whole career upon his dream of an independent Indonesia.
What was the first thing they did when they landed in Batavia after the Japanese left? They paid Soekarno a visit, trying to find a way for them both to cooperate. It was clear though, that although their goals were similar, cooperation was impossible.
You see, the Dutch delegations plans was to have a federal Indonesian state which was still part of the Kingdom of The Netherlands. Indonesia will have its own parliament, its own Prime Minister, its own separate set of laws. Their head of state will still be the Dutch Monarch though, and the Netherlands will handle all foreign policy. The military was a complicated matter. It seems an awful lot like concealed imperialism, right? Well yeah, but for many Indonesian nationalists, it used to be everything they ever wanted. In 1936, the Indonesian members of the make-believe NEI parliament,
Volksraad signed the
Soetardjo Petition. The Volksraad only had advisory powers so it was flatly rejected by the colonial government. This was the stance most proponents of Indonesian Nationalism took before the Japanese came. It included Mohammad Hatta, one of proclamators of Indonesian independence, and Sutan Sjahrir, Indonesia's first Prime Minister. In fact, after the failed Communist Uprising in 1926 until the eve of war the popular line of Indonesian Nationalism advocated not their own state, but their own
parliament.
Soekarno, and much of the Pemuda, or Young Indonesians wanted a strong unitary state, no strings attached to the Netherlands. It wasn't a new concept, and it surely wasn't the product of Japanese propaganda. It's just that the high rank that Soekarno held under Japanese occupation ensured that he would be able to tour the country, spreading his ideology. So during the three years of Japanese occupation, the stance that the Indonesian Nationalist movement took became an uncooperative one.
Once it was clear that cooperation was impossible, war raged on. As the war continued, the idealized minds of van Mook and Widjojoatmodjo became more and more dependent on the firepower of the military, and the money of wealthy Dutchmen who had interests on the colonies. More and more, these parties had a say on matters of the Indies, parties that really didn't want the Indies to become independent. When the Dutch did manage to impose a federal state over Indonesia,
one with a really awesome name, it was obvious that the borders separating states were one designed to weaken Indonesia. A classic case of Dutch divide et impera.
/end OTL wall of text
So what will happen to Indonesia afterwards? Let's go for the best case scenario, shall we? The sunshine lollipops and
only four million deaths case. Soekarno dies, say out of the Malaria he suffered during proclamation. So chaos starts much earlier, and ends much earlier. The older, more cooperative Indonesian nationalists throw their lot towards van Mook's. Socialists, older Islamists, the Dutch and possibly the British and the Americans vs Young Islamists vs Tan Malaka's communists (Soviets hate them, Indonesians loved them) vs Musso's communists (Soviets hate them, not much local support though). It's pretty clear who would win. Indonesia becames a federal state that is a dominion under the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Although they would be hanging in the balance of a very fragile peace. If there is any.
First of all, the Minangkabau of West Sumatra and the Christian Minahasans will be disproportionately powerful in this government. They were far more educated than the rest of the country. The military hierarchy will comprise mostly of Christians. The decentralized nature of the government might ease the tension, but to say that there won't be any friction is just naive. Also, ideologies die hard, and the rifts among the Indonesian society will be very hard to mend.
What about the Netherlands in this scenario? Indonesians like to think that they're so poor and the Netherlands is so modern because the Dutch just took all the riches and used the money to build stuff. This is untrue. I'm not being a colonial apologist here. Colonialism in Indonesia sucks for pretty much everybody. Except the rich plantation owners, of course, and the adventurous fresh graduates who seek a fortune working for the colonial government. The average Dutchman who resides in the Netherlands receives no benefit whatsoever from the colonies.
In fact, the Dutch economy was in a very poor state before the war. Industrialization picked up a bit late in the Netherlands, it's especially lacking for a European nation. I would argue that just like how the loss of Belgium pushed the Netherlands into a conquering spree in the Indies, the lost of Indonesia pushed the Netherlands into industrialization. The Dutch miracle didn't happen
despite the loss of the colonies, it happened
because of it. They didn't have much choice, it's industrialize or starve.
There's a term in economics called The Dutch Disease. It's named after when the Dutch slacked off and slowed down the economic growth because they just happen to find gas reserves. It's so easy to make money just by selling raw materials, why go through the hassle of producing something? Now imagine this with a much larger scale caused by all the resources in Indonesia. Yep, keeping the Indies won't be pretty for the Dutch as well. Especially since they're, you know, devastated by two wars in a row.
So to summarize:
- Millions of people will die.
- If the Dutch manage to set up a friendly dominion it will be in a very fragile position.
- It will seriously hamper Dutch economic recovery even after the war is finished.
