Hitler gets his way

The German Generals reluctantly obeyed and attacked France, Belgium Luxembourg and the Netherlands on November 8, 1939. They were able to quickly occupy the Netherlands and Luxembourg but French troops successfully defend their borders and sent troops into Belgium. What developed was a stalemate stretching from the English Channel to the Swiss border like the one that ended twenty-one years earlier.
Through the Cash and Carry program Britain and France were able to build up their forces. The Allies got some financial relief in August 1940, President Roosevelt was able to push Lend Lease through Congress. The German submarine warfare had pushed American public opinion against Germany. It also helped that Republican candidate Wendell Willkie supported Lend Lease.
German submarine warfare would eventually push the United States into the war. A large majority vote in Congress favored the declaration of war on April 11, 1941.
The war expanded on December 7, 1941. Japan declared war on the US,UK and France and launched devastating attacks on Pearl Harbor, Wake Island, Guam, The Philippines, Papua New Guinea, French Indo China, The Dutch East Indies and Singapore. The Japanese found determined resistance. Massive numbers of Commonwealth troops had been sent to secure Malaya, The Dutch East Indies, French Indo China and Papua New Guinea. Part of the mobilization process for the United States was to fully supply the military of the Commonwealth of the Philippines.
In March 1942, US forces landed in France and Belgium. The Germans began to be pushed back.
In April 1942, large numbers of US forces reinforced the Philippines, New Guinea and the Dutch East Indies. The Battle of the Philippine Sea in June 1942, started the process by which the Allies would take control of the South China Sea. By October 1942, the Philippines had been cleared of Japanese troops.
That same month, Italy declared war on Germany. The Italian Army overran the lightly protected German Italian border. By early November, Italians had taken Vienna.
Also in November, Thailand declared war on Japan. Commonwealth forces from Burma were given right of transit to attack French Indo China. By February the Allies had pushed the Japanese forces back to the Chinese border.
A month earlier, on January 8, 1943, Germany had surrendered.
With the sole focus of Allied energy, progress came quickly in the Pacific. An Allied expedition for the Mariana Island was launched from the Philippines in March 1943. By the end of April, the archipelago was secured.
In May 1943, European veterans arrived in the Pacific Theater. By the end of July, the entire US, Commonwealth, French and Italian air forces began using the Marinas to bomb the Japanese Home Islands.
In August, the Allies took Iwo Jima. On October 1, 1943, Allied forces landed on Okinawa. They secured the island on November 13, 1943.
The devastating of the bombing and the toll inflicted by the blockade inspired Hirohito to surrender on February 19, 1944.
Roosevelt does not have the war as an excuse to run for a fourth term. He would probably pick the Democratic nominee. i knew he would have the political sense not pick Henry Wallace. The Democratic nominee, whomever he is would have a difficult task, The electorate would be tired and wanting change. The OTL Republican landslide of 1946, ITTL would come two years earlier. Dewey takes office in January 1945 but I would not what know what else to predict.The lack of a cold war transforms American and World Politics.
 
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There's a lot of replay bias here.

1) If France doesn't fall, the Commonwealth doesn't appear to be weak.
1A) The Dutch East Indies might be a government in Exile, but France is also on hand to resist the invasion south.
1B) The Soviet Union has not been dealt with and Japan is fighting skirmishes with them.

2) Lend Lease was a policy that emerged after France fell and was a desperate measure to help the UK on Credit. Without the Fall of France, this makes Wilkie more interventionist than FDR.
2A) Germany declaring war on the USA for what reason?

3) Italy declaring war on Germany why?

4) FDR's successor probably wins in 1944, given the "aura" of winning WWII. Tom Dewey will be defeated.
 
You have some interesting content here, minus some inaccuracies and other inconsistintsies. I for one would like to know what happens to Poland and the Soviet Union here.

Take these ideas, develop plausible P.O.Ds (you have some good ones, but others are more vague) and give us details. I don't know if this is supposed to be a finished timeline or just a what if but if you don't satisfy this criteria, people on this board are gonna pick you a part and scream A.S.B and logistics.

Good start though, would like to see where you take this and hopefully you can get some constructive criticism and feedback to help you out.
 
There's a lot of replay bias here.

1) If France doesn't fall, the Commonwealth doesn't appear to be weak.
1A) The Dutch East Indies might be a government in Exile, but France is also on hand to resist the invasion south.
1B) The Soviet Union has not been dealt with and Japan is fighting skirmishes with them.

2) Lend Lease was a policy that emerged after France fell and was a desperate measure to help the UK on Credit. Without the Fall of France, this makes Wilkie more interventionist than FDR.
2A) Germany declaring war on the USA for what reason?

3) Italy declaring war on Germany why?

4) FDR's successor probably wins in 1944, given the "aura" of winning WWII. Tom Dewey will be defeated.

In addition to these comments I don't see why you would end with a stalemate in spring 1940. Did not happen on any other western fronts except the Italian.

Also, the surrender of Japan from bombings seems stretched as the bomber force would be much weaker in 1943.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
In addition to these comments I don't see why you would end with a stalemate in spring 1940. Did not happen on any other western fronts except the Italian.
Well, insufficient tanks to force a breakthrough by the Germans?
The Germans being unable to force a breakthrough, and the Western Allies' whole war plan being based on building overwhelming force and flattening the Germans with an offensive once they were built up enough.
 
The German Generals reluctantly obeyed and attacked France, Belgium Luxembourg and the Netherlands on November 8, 1939. They were able to quickly occupy the Netherlands and Luxembourg but French troops successfully defend their borders and sent troops into Belgium. What developed was a stalemate stretching from the English Channel to the Swiss border like the one that ended twenty-one years earlier.
They might struggle to do even that. The German armed forces were still in something of a mess after the invasion of Poland at that time, and Holland only fell so quickly because they didn’t blow the bridges over the Hollands Diep due to expecting help from the French as part of the Dyle-Breda plan. That doesn’t exist yet, so at the very least Fortress Holland will still hold out.

Through the Cash and Carry program Britain and France were able to build up their forces.
Cash & Carry was only a minor part of it – their own factories will also be operating pretty much uninterrupted.

The Allies got some financial relief in August 1940, President Roosevelt was able to push Lend Lease through Congress.
No chance. It was a close-run thing in OTL, with France still in the fight the spectre of having the Germans invade (which is ultimately what got Lend-Lease over the line – cheaper to pay the British to keep fighting than do the fighting yourself) just isn’t there. Furthermore, the UK and France aren’t even nearly out of cash yet – that’ll be some time in 1941 with France still in the war.

The German submarine warfare had pushed American public opinion against Germany.
No chance – if the U-boats are trying to operate from German ports, they’re getting between a half and a third of the OTL sinkings simply because they have so much less time on station (and are more vulnerable in transit). The Germans haven’t even taken Norway ITTL, let alone the French Atlantic ports – so the U-boat campaign is stuck in the Western Approaches rather than the whole of the Atlantic.

German submarine warfare would eventually push the United States into the war. A large majority vote in Congress favored the declaration of war on April 11, 1941.
No chance – the vastly stronger submarine campaign of OTL didn’t, so why should the anaemic campaign that is all they could mount in OTL? Worse, with the Germans confined to the Western Approaches and convoys taking a southerly routing, the OTL incidents of the US “Neutrality Patrols” fighting U-boats simply aren’t going to happen – the U-boats just won’t be far enough out into the Atlantic, unless Roosevelt can somehow invent a way of extending US interests all the way to Ireland.

The war expanded on December 7, 1941. Japan declared war on the US,UK and France and launched devastating attacks on Pearl Harbor, Wake Island, Guam, The Philippines, Papua New Guinea, French Indo China, The Dutch East Indies and Singapore.
Err… exactly how do they get there? Indochina was an absolutely critical staging base in OTL, with many of the troops for Malaya passing through it and Thailand. They just don’t have the amphibious lift to do it all at once. Worse, with Italy not yet in the war and the French still in the RN fleet at Singapore will be vastly stronger than OTL – probably as powerful as the US Pacific Fleet. That means the Japanese can do Pearl Harbor OR Singapore, not both – each is roughly as strong as their whole fleet, and the two are separated by a vast distance. If they go for Pearl, the RN goes “om nom nom nom” to the Japanese amphibious forces and its game over. If they go for Singapore, the US Pacific Fleet intervenes and the Philippines hold – making their gains in the DEI worthless as they can’t get the oil out. Either way, they’re screwed – they simply do not have the forces required for those objectives.

The Japanese found determined resistance. Massive numbers of Commonwealth troops had been sent to secure Malaya, The Dutch East Indies, French Indo China and Papua New Guinea. Part of the mobilization process for the United States was to fully supply the military of the Commonwealth of the Philippines.
Oddly ground forces are the one area the Japanese have a chance – with a repeat of the Western Front going on in Flanders, every spare soldier is going to Europe. The problem instead is that the Japanese simply can’t get there in the face of the sea power available for deployment.

In March 1942, US forces landed in France and Belgium. The Germans began to be pushed back.
Short of a blank cheque from Stalin, the German economy will have imploded long before this. They only kept going as long as they did by systematically looting conquered territories – here they’ve barely conquered anything.

That same month, Italy declared war on Germany. The Italian Army overran the lightly protected German Italian border. By early November, Italians had taken Vienna.
Take a look at the terrain around there some time (ideally in person and on foot - maps don't really show how bad it is) – it’s horrendous for attacking in. There’s a reason that there were 12(?) battles on the Isonzo in WW1.
 

tenthring

Banned
If Germany gets bogged down against France the generals stage a coup and remove Hitler. Whole thing is over by end of 1940.
 
Uhm... I'm so confused right now... :confused:
Can any1 explain how did the German stalemate happened?
This is not WW1 where German subs sunk a ship passenger and bought American public to push war with Germany unless, the subs were careless.
How did Japan even get involved into WW2? Without France falling and Indochina thing, I don't see Japan risks a war with the British along with US. Even Soviets were at their door.
 
If Germany gets bogged down against France the generals stage a coup and remove Hitler. Whole thing is over by end of 1940.

You know, people always say this, but is it based on any reality at all? These are the same generals who refused to remove Hitler as Red Army SHORT RANGE artillery is firing on Berlins.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
You know, people always say this, but is it based on any reality at all? These are the same generals who refused to remove Hitler as Red Army SHORT RANGE artillery is firing on Berlins.
Are they the same generals?
I actually think people are thinking of the same generals who tried to remove Hitler during Operation Bagration and the middle of the Normandy campaign.
 
You know, people always say this, but is it based on any reality at all? These are the same generals who refused to remove Hitler as Red Army SHORT RANGE artillery is firing on Berlins.

Yes. The memories of the Great War war did not only linger in Britain and France, but haunted the German's too. The thought of another stalemate in a war against France and Britain is one of the reasons why a coup was planned during Munich.
 

tenthring

Banned
You know, people always say this, but is it based on any reality at all? These are the same generals who refused to remove Hitler as Red Army SHORT RANGE artillery is firing on Berlins.

1) Hitler survived something like 40+ assassination attempts, many from inside the army. I wouldn't call that "refusing to remove him". Honestly, one practically gets the impression the devil wasn't letting Hitler off with anything other then suicide.

2) Everyone expected the Wallies to win, even the German high command. The Fall of France was incredibly shocking to everyone, and bought Hitler lots of power and influence he didn't have before it.

3) The conflict in the west was relatively genteel. If there was a coup in late 1940 the Germans could probably expect to be treated relatively well by the allies. The holocaust hadn't even happened yet. Rather then collective guilt Hitler being killed by his own people in 1940 would be seen as a dictator seizing power through subterfuge in the middle of a crisis and then being removed when he actually put his maniacal plans into motion. The Germans themselves would have less collective guilt.

By contrast what happened in Russia were genocidal war crimes. It's actually somewhat shocking the Russian people didn't wipe out the entire German race wherever they had control over them. One can see how many generals would come to the conclusion they had no choice but to fight and there was no way out.

4) There German economy will literally implode if Germany doesn't win a quick victory over France.

5) The Russians will invade from the East if they don't win a quick victory over France.
 
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