AHC/WI/PC: Successful United Arab Republic That Spans Entire Arab World

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Feb 17, 2015

If the PODS are right, could a powerful, prosperous, and democratic Arab-world-spanning UAR exist? (PODS: ie Western aligned, better leadership, secular government, different partition of Ottoman Empire, alternate world wars, more popular Pan-Arab-ism, more economically developed like East Asia or Europe with a tiger economy focusing less on oil and more on diversified industries , able to develop a democracy with good human rights record, peaceful, peaceful coexistence with Israel, etc.)

And when I mean Arab World, I mean countries with Arab (ethnic and lingual (seriously Somalia isn't Arab-ethnic but speaks the language and considers itself Arab)) majorities and those like Chad and Iran with Arab-majority regions.

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Feb 17, 2015

When I mean Western-supported, I mean like UAR is very cooperative with the U.S. and still is capable of becoming developed like Western Europe. Not like repressive Shah-like Iran.

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Feb 18, 2015

Anybody here?

Binky the Clown · Feb 18, 2015

RandomWriterGuy said:
Anybody here?

Really, the only way to achieve such a feat is to butterfly away Israel (perhaps the British decide against creating a Jewish homeland in Palestine?). The Arab losses during the Arab-Israeli Wars are part of the reason Pan-Arabism fell out of favor. Even then, you'd have to take things like provincialism and power struggles between the different Pan-Arab leaders into consideration.

YLi · Feb 18, 2015

Keep paying attention to this timeline.

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Mar 30, 2015

Binky the Clown said:
Really, the only way to achieve such a feat is to butterfly away Israel (perhaps the British decide against creating a Jewish homeland in Palestine?). The Arab losses during the Arab-Israeli Wars are part of the reason Pan-Arabism fell out of favor. Even then, you'd have to take things like provincialism and power struggles between the different Pan-Arab leaders into consideration.

What if the Arabs were invaded by a foreign power and had to work together to kick the invaders out? WI'll that help much?

CthulhuFhtagn · Mar 30, 2015

RandomWriterGuy said:
What if the Arabs were invaded by a foreign power and had to work together to kick the invaders out? WI'll that help much?

Probably not, since it didn't in OTL. Instead of new arab republic, why not just find some way to keep the Ottoman Empire alive? It controlled the entire Arab world, at least theoretically.

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Mar 30, 2015

CthulhuFhtagn said:
Probably not, since it didn't in OTL. Instead of new arab republic, why not just find some way to keep the Ottoman Empire alive? It controlled the entire Arab world, at least theoretically.

Doesn't mean it can happen.

ramones1986 · Mar 30, 2015

Even in a successful UAR scenario, still one of their major problems would be the peripheral nationalisms (e.g. Lebanese, Syrian, Egyptian).

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Mar 30, 2015

ramones1986 said:
Even in a successful UAR scenario, still one of their major problems would be the peripheral nationalisms (e.g. Lebanese, Syrian, Egyptian).

Then how did Germany overcome its mini-nationalism movements?

xerex · Mar 30, 2015

RandomWriterGuy said:
Then how did Germany overcome its mini-nationalism movements?

Germany is a lot smaller and less populous that the Arab League .

CthulhuFhtagn · Mar 30, 2015

RandomWriterGuy said:
Doesn't mean it can happen.

Good point. Improbable does not mean impossible, and this UAR wouldn't be the first country to make an unlikely rise to power.

RandomWriterGuy said:
Then how did Germany overcome its mini-nationalism movements?

Germany was and is much, much smaller, in terms of land area and population. It was also better connected, allowing smaller armies to control more territory. And even then, German unification was never a sure thing; so many things could have gone wrong for Prussia in the 19th century.

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Mar 30, 2015

CthulhuFhtagn said:
Germany was and is much, much smaller, in terms of land area and population. It was also better connected, allowing smaller armies to control more territory. And even then, German unification was never a sure thing; so many things could have gone wrong for Prussia in the 19th century.

Geography may be an issue but if Egypt can become a Prussia things could work out.

CthulhuFhtagn · Mar 30, 2015

RandomWriterGuy said:
Geography may be an issue but if Egypt can become a Prussia things could work out.

Maybe, but with an after 1900 PoD? It's a tall order for the UK/France/US to just sit back and watch while Egypt conquers everything from Algeria to Iraq to Oman.

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Mar 30, 2015

CthulhuFhtagn said:
Maybe, but with an after 1900 PoD? It's a tall order for the UK/France/US to just sit back and watch while Egypt conquers everything from Algeria to Iraq to Oman.

Or a world war could extend into the Arab world in which an invader occupies the territory and the Arabs unite to resist them. Soon, they invaders are forced to flee and the Arabs form a loose confederation that becomes more centralized over time.

Or have a pan-Arab state side with the U.S. so that it won't try to break it up through clandestine ways.

Alex1guy · Mar 30, 2015

RandomWriterGuy said:
Or a world war could extend into the Arab world in which an invader occupies the territory and the Arabs unite to resist them. Soon, they invaders are forced to flee and the Arabs form a loose confederation that becomes more centralized over time.

Or have a pan-Arab state side with the U.S. so that it won't try to break it up through clandestine ways.

Until they all start arguing and shooting each other once the common enemy (not even sure who could be the invader in this scenario) is gone. You have a lot of conflicts to deal with including ethnic, religious, tribal, political, national, cultural, linguistic etc. The "Arab World" is very, very diverse. You've got varying religions (Islam itself is incredibly diverse, not to mention other Christian or Jewish minorities), certain groups that have been in power for decades, groups that have been oppressed for decades, different systems of ruling, different ruling families, tribal traditions, and not to mention the difficulty of invading/attacking/controlling such a large swathe of territory. It's a big ask, not saying impossible, but it's not simple by any stretch of the imagination.

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Mar 30, 2015

Alex1guy said:
Until they all start arguing and shooting each other once the common enemy (not even sure who could be the invader in this scenario) is gone. You have a lot of conflicts to deal with including ethnic, religious, tribal, political, national, cultural, linguistic etc. The "Arab World" is very, very diverse. You've got varying religions (Islam itself is incredibly diverse, not to mention other Christian or Jewish minorities), certain groups that have been in power for decades, groups that have been oppressed for decades, different systems of ruling, different ruling families, tribal traditions, and not to mention the difficulty of invading/attacking/controlling such a large swathe of territory. It's a big ask, not saying impossible, but it's not simple by any stretch of the imagination.

India has gone through it still in one-piece (not counting West and East Pakistan), so I do believe the Arab world will work it out somehow. Maybe if Nasser doesn't try to make the UAR Egypt-centered and gives more power to the other states maybe that helps.

xerex · Apr 1, 2015

RandomWriterGuy said:
Or a world war could extend into the Arab world in which an invader occupies the territory and the Arabs unite to resist them. Soon, they invaders are forced to flee and the Arabs form a loose confederation that becomes more centralized over time.
.

Is there a real life example of such a thing ever happening in any place ?

Napoleon IV · Apr 1, 2015

Let's say the UAR extends from Morocco to Iraq (past Iraq the majority of people are no longer Arab). Although most people in this area speak Arabic (smaller numbers speak Turkish, Berber, and Persian) there are so many differences between all of the dialects that a Syrian and a Moroccan will have as trouble even understanding what the other is saying. Religiously the Shia and Sunnis hate each other, and furthermore there are several minority religions and sects within the two major groups. There are dozens of tribes and the legal and political systems of several countries will have to be merged.

TickTock The Witch's Dead · Apr 1, 2015

Napoleon IV said:
Let's say the UAR extends from Morocco to Iraq (past Iraq the majority of people are no longer Arab). Although most people in this area speak Arabic (smaller numbers speak Turkish, Berber, and Persian) there are so many differences between all of the dialects that a Syrian and a Moroccan will have as trouble even understanding what the other is saying. Religiously the Shia and Sunnis hate each other, and furthermore there are several minority religions and sects within the two major groups. There are dozens of tribes and the legal and political systems of several countries will have to be merged.

King of like the German states. Not impossible but I do agree particular PODs are needed.