PC: Poland-Lithuania incorporates the entire Livonia?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livonian_War#Russian_invasion_of_Livonia
Wikipedia says that the casus belli of the Livonian War was that Livonia breached a truce it had with Russia back in 1554 that banned Livonia from allying with Poland-Lithuania for 15 years. While Russia lost the war in the end, Estonia was lost to Sweden and Ösel to Denmark-Norway, and the new duke received only Courland and Semigallia.

I wonder that if it's possible for the Commonwealth to gain the entirety of Livonia after the truce was signed, either with or without a war? If there's a war, I understand that the crown would likely help itself to a big share of the land of the former order, likely leaving little more than Courland and Semigallia for the former Master. But if somehow a peaceful integration is achieved — likely by waiting for the truce to expire — would that mean a much bigger Duchy of Livonia? Or it would still be partitioned into mutiple duchies/partially annexed as crown land?

In any case, I expect the bishoprics to be directly subject to the crown or annexed, like Prussia or OTL Livonia.

Pic for fast reference:

Concerning the truce I have a feeling Ivan IV would have found a reason to attack anyway; IIRC he was interested in gaining a solid acesss to the Baltic Sea. Therefore, IMO, some kind of war was inevitable. But if the truce stands...
Livonia was in serious internal turmoil at the time. Perhaps pro-Lithuanian faction under Gotthard Kettler might emerge victorious, but keeps the truce. Without Russian invasions Kettler might be able to defet mutinies in Estonia, effecively keeping it under his rule. He also might decide to secularize Livonia and dissolve the Livonian Order as a way to gain support of the pro-Reformation factions. And then, as the truce ends, Kettler might still turn to Poland-Lithuania for help against Russia (perhaps Sweden and Danemark too), but with his position somewhat stronger he might achieve better conditions. He still will be vassal of PLC, but with his duchy larger.
The problem is I'm not sure Poland would be so interested in Livonia, since many of Poles believed it to be mostly Lithuanian problem (the PLC was created in 1569). Also fighting Sweden, Danemark AND Russia at the same time? I'm not sure the Sejm would agree. Perhaps if Sigismund August convinces them it is a way to consolidate the union... well, maybe. But I have my doubts. OTOH, with stronger Livonia and PLC behind it Sweden and Danemark might not join the war. And if Livonia becomes PLC's vassal, there will be war with Russia.

How could Poland get to keep the garrison in Tallinn in Spring 1561?

Could it be possible for Livonia in this way to become full third part of Commonwealth, instead of Polish-Lithuanian condominium?

chornedsnorkack said:

How could Poland get to keep the garrison in Tallinn in Spring 1561?

Click to expand...

I was wondering about it too, because if we can just have an Lithuanian army there, I wouldn't need to ask for a PC here.
Alternatively, Livonia could just wait for the truce to end, but don't know if Ivan would try to do something before that.

Rudi Maxer said:

Could it be possible for Livonia in this way to become full third part of Commonwealth, instead of Polish-Lithuanian condominium?

Click to expand...

With a big Duchy of Livonia (or several duchies) there, it'd be a bit awkward since only a small part of Livonia would be crown land. Of course, there's still the Sejm whose members might not be entirely happy with that.

Originally posted by Rudi Maxer

Could it be possible for Livonia in this way to become full third part of Commonwealth, instead of Polish-Lithuanian condominium?

Click to expand...

I doubt it. First, Livonia was simply too small and, unlike Poland and Lithuania, had a separate ruler(s). Second, Convincing Lithuania that the union was a good idea was not an easy task for Sigismund August. Many Lithuanian noblemen prefered previous order of things - a personal union, nothing more. Adding Livonia to the mix would have angered many Lithuanians who would have believed that Livonia as the third partner would have diminished their influence in the PLC. The closes thing to make PLC a three-part federation was Treaty of Hadiach in 1658, with Ruthenia as a 3rd par, and it took a series of political and military disasters to the PLC to even think about accepting it.