Austria and the Great Game

This is a revision of some of my earlier thoughts. Briefly there are several changed that take place during the 19th Century that I will go over. Sweden is convinced by Britain and France to enter the Crimean War. Austria also is convinced to join the war on the side of the British and French. The end result of this is a shift in the balance of power in Europe. Emperor Francis Joseph decided to play the game by helping to create a Polish-Lithuanian Kingdom with his younger brother on the throne. The Austrians give up their Polish lands and join to them territory taken from Russia.
The Austrian Emperor also backs a unification of Italy as a means to create a friendly state and to undermine the French.
The Austrians join what would have been the states that form Romania to the Empire. The Austrians support the liberation of Serbian lands from Ottoman control.
The Crimean War also marked the beginning of a return to a close relationship between Austria and Great Britain.

Advisers to the Emperor urged him to maintain a close relationship with Great Britain. The Emperor heeded their advise and when the Indian Mutiny broke out he offered the newly formed Austrian Foreign Legion to help restore order. The British Government provided weapons and agreed to pay their salary while they were in India. It was a win win proposal.
The appeal of the Christians in the Holy Lands for help in dealing with Muslim oppression also appealed to the Austrian Emperor who felt that he was the protector of the Catholic Faith. He also did not want to see the French make gains in the Middle East.

chris N said:

The Austrian Emperor also backs a unification of Italy as a means to create a friendly state and to undermine the French.

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Nope. This is not something Franz Joseph would ever do under any circumstances. It would involve dispossessing existing rulers who are close relatives of his, and it would involve dispossessing the Pope. OTL, he wasn't even willing to give up Venice until basically forced to!

Basically, an absolutist state under an archduke, or the King of the Two Sicilies, is just a total non-starter. It's inconceivable given the way conservatives looked at the world in the 1850s. And it's very difficult to see how a constitutional state under the House of Savoy could possibly be in Austria's interest. How would it undermine the French to give a French client state an enormous amount of new territory?

On the non-Italian front, do you realize how much of a military undertaking it would be to force Russia to concede Poland? Austria can barely afford just mobilization at this point, much less a massive general war in which they would be bearing the brunt. And that's ignoring the huge question of what Prussia would do. There's very good reasons Austria remained a non-belligerent during the OTL Crimean War.

And then look at it from the Russian perspective. In OTL, one of the most basic diplomatic facts of the war is that Russia backs down when Austria threatens to actively join. They withdrew from the Danubian Principalities when Austria demanded that they do, and then they made peace after Sevastopol when Austria was again making noises about getting involved. The Russians know that a war with Austria would be disastrous (we should note - an Austro-Russian War can absolutely be disastrous for both Austria and Russia, because war is generally a negative sum game) and are trying to avoid that. The localization of the war in the Crimea isn't great for Russia, but it's better than having to fight all the great powers at once.

If even part of these actions were to happen, might it lead, later on, to reforms in Austria that might allow the Empire to modernize better by the start of the 20th Century?

The Austrians were not going to back the House of Savoy as it was clear that they did not serve Austria's interest. The Same could be said regarding the Kingdom of Naples and Sicily. In fact Austrian intelligence was clear that the southern Kingdom was heading in the direction of a fall. It was clear that Austria needed to get ahead of the impending changes that were about to take place in Italy and back a third player that might see a friendly Italy.
As for the Crimean War the opening of the second front in the Baltic created considerable pressure on Imperial Russia. The Prussians sat out most of the war alienating both sides. The failure to join the British,Swedes, French, Austrian, Sardinia and Ottomans in the war caused strain relations with them. The Russians also felt betrayed by the Prussians.
Austria also began to line up support within the German state for a possible showdown with the Prussians. The Bavarian's, Saxons were quickly joined by a number of other German states on the Austrian side. Britain's ties to Hanover say that side move to joining the anti-Prussian line up.

Much of what would happen in the post Crimean War period in the Empire would see reforms that would allow the Empire to transition to a much more effective system. Many of the reforms would see the granting of a voice to the non-German and Non Hungarian citizens of the Empire.
On the Foreign Policy front Austria's relationship with Serbia would be far different. Great Britain and Austria would support the Greeks.

Austria's relationship with Great Britain changed a great deal with the Crimean War. In many ways Austria's relationship returned to an earlier one with the British. For too long France had been the threat so there was a degree of distrust between the two nations.
Russia had become the threat to the crown jewel of India and Austria became the natural ally to counter balance that.
Prussia's failure to support Britain against the Russians created a strain in relations. One that Austria's Chancellor and foign minister played to Austria's advantage. Once again the Prussians made the same mistake that they had made in the Napoleonic Wars when instead of joining Russia and Austria against the French waited until the Year after their defeat to go to war against them.
Thus Austria had the allies of a lot of the German states including Bavaria, Saxony and Hanover.

Austria and Prussia seemed to be on a collision course. Reforms that had taken part in the Empire plus experience in the Crimean Conflict and overseas had resulted in the Empire's military having more experience in the new warfare than Prussia. Also the Austrians had worked on the other members of the German Confederation meaning that in a showdown it could count on the support of a lot of members and the neutrality of most others.
Prussia would need to maintain forces in the east against a threat from the Kingdom of Poland-Lithuania. While the Austrians could count on the active support of Bavaria, Saxony, Hanover, Wurtemburg and Frankfur.t

It appeared that there was a showdown coming between the two great Germanic Powers. Prussia had a well trained army but it had not seen combat since 1815. In contrast the Austrian Empire forces had seen combat in the Crimean War and in helping the liberation of the Balkans. It had also included troops that had fought in the Indian Mutiny and the Italian War of unification.
Austria had reformed its Army and modernized it thus a lot of Prussia's advantages were lost Britain also was supporting its ally Austria.

chris N said:

It appeared that there was a showdown coming between the two great Germanic Powers. Prussia had a well trained army but it had not seen combat since 1815. In contrast the Austrian Empire forces had seen combat in the Crimean War and in helping the liberation of the Balkans. It had also included troops that had fought in the Indian Mutiny and the Italian War of unification.
Austria had reformed its Army and modernized it thus a lot of Prussia's advantages were lost Britain also was supporting its ally Austria.

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How does Austria exactly modernize its army ?

The Modernization of the Austrian Empires Army included the standardization of rifles and the overhaul of the artillery branch. Older artillery pieces were removed from service and replaced with more modern and better built guns. The effort was made to simplify thing. It would make the training of the operation and maintenance easier. In addition The experience of the Austrian Army and its foreign Legion in both the Crimean War and overseas was examined to change its tactics in face of a changing world. One of the key changes was to ensure that the officers would be able to communicate with their men.
The Austrian Army had seen the American Gatling gun and forward thinkers in the army had pushed for the adoption of a similiar weapon in the Austrian Army. In addition the Austrians Imperial Army had begun a shift away from the colorful uniforms of the earlier part of the 19th century toward a grayish colored uniform.

chris N said:

The Austrians were not going to back the House of Savoy as it was clear that they did not serve Austria's interest. The Same could be said regarding the Kingdom of Naples and Sicily. In fact Austrian intelligence was clear that the southern Kingdom was heading in the direction of a fall. It was clear that Austria needed to get ahead of the impending changes that were about to take place in Italy and back a third player that might see a friendly Italy.

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There is no third player. The Austrians have no good options in Italy. And the actual Austrian leadership was pretty determined to take the worst possible option regardless. Who is there in Austria in the 1850s who favors anything like what you're proposing? What's the point of a TL which posits that a state pursue policies that nobody anywhere close to a position of power in that state ever supported? "What if Austria entered the Crimean War?" is a reasonable question, because it's something that one could conceivably imagine actually happening under people who might plausibly be ruling Austria during the 1850s (hell, under the people who were actually ruling Austria during the 1850s). "What if Austria supported the unification of a friendly Italy?" isn't, because there's no plausible way to do this, and no plausible leader of Austria who would even want to do it.

I mean, even if you kill of Franz Joseph and make Maximilian Emperor, I think the best you're going to see from Austria is self-government for Lombardy-Venetia under the Austrian crown and support for a Confederation. Even that is pretty hard to see actually happening, especially the latter.

Relations between Prussia and Austria had been growing worse ever since the Crimean War. The Prussians had been gradually losing their leadership in the German Confederation. Many of the German states had been lining up with Austria. Saxony had been quite bitter with Prussia since the end of the Napoleonic Wars. It had thus naturally flowed toward Austria. Bavaria had also turned toward the Austrians and many of the small Catholic states had followed that move. But it was Hanover that marked the beginning of the collapse of Prussia when it joined the group of states allied with Austria. The Northern German Confederation was now falling apart. The result was a shifting in the military balance of power.
Austrian Diplomacy had neutralized the chances of any help coming from Russia. Both Sweden and Great Britain promised to help should the Russians strike Austria.

Austria began to mobilize its forces as its intelligence clearly indicated that the Prussians were about to violate its border with Saxony. The Austrian Military had seen a considerable shakeup as a lot of truly bad officer were removed and better thinkers were moved up.

Prussian Forces attacked Saxony and Austria. The result was a declaration of war on Prussia by Austria, Saxony, Bavaria, Wurtemburg Frankfurt and Hanover. Several states that had been allied with Prussia declared Neutrality. The Kingdom of Poland-Lithuania ordered the mobilization of all of its reservist .
The Austrian forces were not caught off guard and they responded quite well. Prussian territory in the western part of Germany were quickly over run by the Austro-German State Alliance.

The Austrian Army of Bohemia had pulled back to a better defensive position and upon the arrival of reinforcements it was prepared to surprise the overconfident Prussian Army . The Austrian Forces now totaled over 124,000 troops. Another Austrian Army had moved into Saxony and had prevented the destruction of the Saxon Army.
Having eliminated the Prussian forces in the West an Austro-German Army( Austrian forces combined with Bavaria, Nassau, Wurtemburg and Frankfurt) pushed toward the Prussian army.

It would appear that the Prussians were way too over confident of their ability. The Austrian Army had gained a lot more combat experience and no longer did they play by the rules of the Napoleonic Wars. Experience gained in the Crimean War and the Indian Mutiny as well as the fighting in Greece. In contrast the Prussian Army had not fought against an opponent since 1815. This made a world of difference. The fact that Austria had rallied the support of most of the German Confederation to fight against Prussia meant that the odds had shifted to favor Austria.
The Austrians had also made an agreement with the Russian giving them a free hand to liberate the ancient Armenian lands from the Ottomans.

The Prussians now found themselves under attack by the Army of Bohemia. The Austrians after being on the defensive had shifted to the attack after repulsing several attacks. In Saxony the Austrians had reinforced the Saxon Army and had repulsed an attack on Leipzig.
Meanwhile the Austro-German Army was pushing in from the west. The Prussians had not expected to be facing not only Austria, Saxony but most of the German states.

Well unless Prussia can gain some new allies or get some victories under its belt, it may be screwed. Maybe time to look for possible terms.

The Prussian Military Commanders will still over confident that they could deal with the Austrian-German Confederation forces. That overconfidence rapidly vanished when the Austrians brought the Prussians under the heaviest artillery bombardment ever seen. The Austrians had switched to Breech loading artillery and could get a lot more rounds out. The Austrian also used infiltration tactics and were able to make there way through the Prussian Flank. The Army of Bohemia crushed the Prussian 5th Corp and made a rapid withdrawal by the Prussians a must do. The Austrians suffered some 3,000 Killed in Action and 10,000 wounded but inflicted massive loses on the Prussians. Nearly 13,000 Prussian troops were captured and when the captured wounded were added that figure rose to over 30.000.
The Austro-Saxon Army and the Army of Bohemia next fell upon the remaining Prussian Army in Saxony. Once again the Prussians , who had been confident that the Saxons were about to break had to make a rapid withdrawal to Prussian territory.
Russia offered to see what it could do about ending the war. The Austrians and their allies were of two minds. The Saxons wanted the Prussians destroyed but Hanover proposed that the Prussians loss of territory and having them pay for the cost of the war would be enough.
Austria's Emperor now met with the Russian Envoy and discussed the possibility of a return to peace. Prussia would lose all of the territories in Western Germany that it had gained at the end of the Napoleonic Wars. It would also restore to Saxony land that it had taken. Poland would also receive some territory that was clearly dominated by Poles ( Russia having lost its Polish lands did not object to the idea). A Monetary payment would be made to Austria and the German Confederation. The Russian Envoy would convey the terms to the Prussians. Meanwhile the Austro-German Army of the West was about to invade Prussia.