1453: Mehmet defeated

Hello there,

Pretty much what it says on the tin. I've been listening/reading quite a lot about that episode of history and as far as I've seen this is the most badass thing I've ever heard of. Full of twists and turns, heroics, massive canons... Amazing nobody ever made a movie about it, this is the most epic thing I ever heard of.

Anyway.

What if Mehmet II didn't manage to take the city? There are quite a few PoD for that:

The Gold:

• According to Gibbons, the nobles of Constantinople would have had the gold to hire mercenaries. I find that doubtful, especially since he doesn't have any sympathy for them

The boats:

• One of the big actions was Mehmet getting a fleet past the chain which even Gibbons admit grudgingly it is quite impressive for the time. What if they couldn't? Or got discovered? Which brings us to

The Genoese:

• The Genoese betrayed the Byzantines at every turn and didn't offer any help, so what if they weren't being shitheads?
• What if more European powers would actually have done something about the invasion?

Also, question, I heard of the last words of Constantine "The city falls but I live!" but very few sources actually mention this. How true is it? Where does the legend comes from?

Cheers!

Tanc49 said:

The boats:

• One of the big actions was Mehmet getting a fleet past the chain which even Gibbons admit grudgingly it is quite impressive for the time. What if they couldn't? Or got discovered? Which brings us to

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I think at one point the Romans counterattacked, with fire ships no less, against the fleet that had been transported to the other side. Have that succeed and that's one less problem. Dunno if it's enough to save the city though

He comes back one year later and wins. Constantinople was completely isolated, surrounded by the ottoman empire.

The ottoman army was, then, the best army in all this part of the world (China set aside).

Matteo said:

He comes back one year later and wins. Constantinople was completely isolated, surrounded by the ottoman empire.

The ottoman army was, then, the best army in all this part of the world (China set aside).

Click to expand...

If he doesn't win the siege (and he wasn't far off not doing it) then there's a good chance he doesn't get to come back a year later. His position wasn't secure enough at that early point that he could survive a defeat of that magnitude without welcoming a coup.

Of course, that just means either him or his successor would come back in 10 years and conquer it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matteo
He comes back one year later and wins. Constantinople was completely isolated, surrounded by the ottoman empire.

The ottoman army was, then, the best army in all this part of the world (China set aside).

If he doesn't win the siege (and he wasn't far off not doing it) then there's a good chance he doesn't get to come back a year later. His position wasn't secure enough at that early point that he could survive a defeat of that magnitude without welcoming a coup.

Of course, that just means either him or his successor would come back in 10 years and conquer it.

Click to expand...

That's kinda what I gathered, he seemed to have quite a temper. This kind of people lasts as long as they're successful. But with the massive means put in there, the forts, the canons, the hundred of thousand of people... A defeat there would be absolutely humiliating and would restore an aura to Constantinople, no?

I'm quite positive about Constantinoples chances after a Mehmet defeat. If he is defeated, he won't have nearly as much prestige as he did IOTL, and it encourages those who lost during the Crusade of Varna that the Ottomans can be beaten.

If the PoD is a naval victory to make a land victory feasible, it could reinforce the value of the sea to the Byzantines and (hopefully) encourage them to mimic Genoa and Venice, especially if Genoa takes losses defending against the Ottomans. Having some extra revenue that doesn't rely on manpower would certainly help the Romans in the short term, perhaps set the seeds of a rejuvenation.

But pro-european morale after the Romans defeat the Ottomans? That could be huge, especially if Mehmet dies in the process, as it could lead to another Interregnum - with a 6 year old heir trying to hold an Empire together with his regent. Any leader worth half a penny would encourage a crusade - Serbia, Hungary, Poland - all would benefit, Wallachia too. I don't know how the Romans would benefit - they may not, they may be given territory (i.e. the Rumelihisarı Fortress, if the fort opposite is destroyed), they may somehow pull something out of nothing and grab territory during the chaos.

But any defeat of Mehmet at Constantinople would be a big deal, especially in Eastern Europe, his death, could bleed the Ottoman Empire.

I don't think the Byzantines could kill Mehmet, it would have to be a luck of luck involved.

They can wear them down but killing a guy always surrounded by 10k elite warriors necessitates a lot of luck or manpower they didn't have.

Unfortunatly Byzantium is still done for. Really post 1340s civil war between John V's regents and Kantakouzenos, Byzantium was doomed to fall. Its population by 1453 had fallen to some 800 people and rather than being a ity was some 8 villages. The state was bankrupt, its economy controlled completely by the Italians, a people suffering under crushing tax burdens and a concentration of wealth among a few elite aristocrats. Quite honestly I am impressed it survived as long as it did post 1351. Now perhaps Mehmet dies by luck and the Turkish siege is relieved. Well than otto's fall into civil war then some 10 years later another sultan comes and takes the city. or the crusaders win miraculous victories and urn Byzantium into a satellite. As for Russia well after the conversion of the byzantines to the latin rite they were abandoned by the rus states.

Tanc49 said:

I don't think the Byzantines could kill Mehmet, it would have to be a luck of luck involved.

They can wear them down but killing a guy always surrounded by 10k elite warriors necessitates a lot of luck or manpower they didn't have.

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Totally agree. I can't think of a way, besides some mad charge at the walls in desperation, that Mehmet could be killed. Excluding a very unfortunate cannon inspection.

There's always the possibility of subterfuge (as in, assassins out of nowhere). Hard to accomplish but not impossible.

Either way it would be interesting to see what Hungary, Poland, the Balkan states and other Europeans do with their new morale boost.

Hello to everybody !
Actualy there is one movie http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetih_1453.
But is a little bit biased,anyway fun to watch .

You could see a Byzantine city state emerge eventually but someone with enough power is gonna want to take the straits sooner or later, so it is not a permentent solution.

Unfortunatly Byzantium is still done for. Really post 1340s civil war between John V's regents and Kantakouzenos, Byzantium was doomed to fall. Its population by 1453 had fallen to some 800 people and rather than being a ity was some 8 villages. The state was bankrupt, its economy controlled completely by the Italians, a people suffering under crushing tax burdens and a concentration of wealth among a few elite aristocrats. Quite honestly I am impressed it survived as long as it did post 1351. Now perhaps Mehmet dies by luck and the Turkish siege is relieved. Well than otto's fall into civil war then some 10 years later another sultan comes and takes the city. or the crusaders win miraculous victories and urn Byzantium into a satellite. As for Russia well after the conversion of the byzantines to the latin rite they were abandoned by the rus states.

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I do appreciate the fact that someone with the pseudo of the Roman Emperor of the West does counter-propaganda but that's just not true

All sources say the army gotten from the local population was of 5000 able-bodied men with a supplement of about 2000 others (Italians mostly) which contradicts the number of 800. Also it was a city, encircled by a wall.

Gibbons gives about 100k people at the end. Everything else you said does ring true though

What if Mehmet is thrown from his horse or assassinated or just a lucky shot from an arrow?

Sevarics said:

What if Mehmet is thrown from his horse or assassinated or just a lucky shot from an arrow?

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Likely chaos in the ottomans results in a land grab in Eastern Europe that permanently sets them back there.

An interesting way to win the battle would be to use Prince Orhan. If he can be smuggled away to a part of Anatolia where he has support, and is able to take control of Anatolia from Mehmet, that combined with Italian-Byzantine naval efforts could lead Mehmet to be vulnerable, especially if he is shipping troops back to Anatolia to deal with the threat.

I'd like to posit however that if the Italians are a large part of the Byzantines success, the Italians may insist that the Byzantines control the most of the Bosphoros, with Italian traders getting obscene benefits. I would suggest this partially because of the reports of cross-christian unity by the defenders, and the practicality and convenience for the Italians of only having to deal with one, heavily indebted and pliant local power.

If I recall correctly, Constinople by this time was surrounded by two fortifications interdicting most supplies runs and trade. Even if it survives I fail to see how it lasts with the Ottoman navy surrounding it.

Tanc49 said:

Hello there,

Pretty much what it says on the tin. I've been listening/reading quite a lot about that episode of history and as far as I've seen this is the most badass thing I've ever heard of. Full of twists and turns, heroics, massive canons... Amazing nobody ever made a movie about it, this is the most epic thing I ever heard of.

Anyway.

What if Mehmet II didn't manage to take the city? There are quite a few PoD for that:

The Gold:

• According to Gibbons, the nobles of Constantinople would have had the gold to hire mercenaries. I find that doubtful, especially since he doesn't have any sympathy for them

The boats:

• One of the big actions was Mehmet getting a fleet past the chain which even Gibbons admit grudgingly it is quite impressive for the time. What if they couldn't? Or got discovered? Which brings us to

The Genoese:

• The Genoese betrayed the Byzantines at every turn and didn't offer any help, so what if they weren't being shitheads?
• What if more European powers would actually have done something about the invasion?

Also, question, I heard of the last words of Constantine "The city falls but I live!" but very few sources actually mention this. How true is it? Where does the legend comes from?

Cheers!

Click to expand...

Firstly, there has been a film made about it. Check out Fetih 1453: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetih_1453

Secondly, the Genoese did in fact send troops to help the Byzantines, and if I remember correctly half the defenders were Genoese.

Thirdly, even if by some miracle the Byzantines had survived the 1453 siege, they would simply have fallen 10 or 15 years later. By that stage, Constantinople was little more than a collection of depopulated villages with fields of crops growing in between. The walls were crumbling, the state was bankrupt and its territory non-existent. The 'empire' had no chance whatsoever by that stage - it was already far too late. They were surrounded on all sides by Ottoman territory. Their incorporation into the Ottoman Empire was simply a matter of time - and it was going to happen sooner, rather than later.

I'm thinking this might turn into a Venice-wank.

Venice, in 1453, was the only other power in the Aegean area (after the Ottomans). If the Ottomans suffer a crushing defeat, Venice is bound to profit; Thessalonica might be regained, more Greek puppets, Byzantium more firmly encouraged to bow to the Doges, etcetera. Maybe even enough to allow Venice more success against the various leagues against them, resulting in a long-term control of 'Greece' by the Venetians.

avernite said:

I'm thinking this might turn into a Venice-wank.

Venice, in 1453, was the only other power in the Aegean area (after the Ottomans). If the Ottomans suffer a crushing defeat, Venice is bound to profit; Thessalonica might be regained, more Greek puppets, Byzantium more firmly encouraged to bow to the Doges, etcetera. Maybe even enough to allow Venice more success against the various leagues against them, resulting in a long-term control of 'Greece' by the Venetians.

Click to expand...

This still doesn't solve the fundamental problem; the Ottoman Empire is simply vastly more powerful and better organised than any neighbouring state. Fantasising about Venice coming to the rescue is about as realistic as imagining that the tiny city-state of Massalia could stand up to the might of the entire Roman Republic and its massed legions at the height of Rome's power. It couldn't.

Unless you deal with the overwhelming superiority in manpower, territory and gold held by the Ottomans, no amount of imagination will be enough to save Constantinople in 1453. Hell, even a Mongol invasion wasn't enough to stop them. They were prettymuch unbreakable by this time. It was simply too late.

To be honest, I think unless you go back at least a century, Byzantium is dead no matter what anyone says or does.