THE UPSET OF THE CENTURY: A Collaborative Timeline

As every attempt I make at coming up with a timeline specifically for this Forum seems to fizzle out, usually before I get far enough to actually post something, I thought I might give the whole 'collaborative' format a go. All I ask is that we don't veer off into Dystopia, Utopia or ASB territory.
To start with, our (hopefully plausible) POD...


The Upset of the Century

15th July 1976 – Former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter secures the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Senator Walter Mondale of Minnesota is chosen as the Vice Presidential nominee.

19th August 1976 – Despite a strong challenge from former California Governor Ronald Reagan, incumbent President Gerald Ford secures the Republican Presidential Nomination. Senator Bob Dole of Kansas is named Ford’s running mate, replacing Vice President Nelson Rockefeller on the Republican ticket.

23rd September 1976 – The First US Presidential Debate (the first to be held since the 1960 Election) takes place. The debate is marred by a 27-minute delay caused by a failure in the sound system on stage. President Ford performs well during the debate itself, with most subsequent polls considering Ford the winner.

6th October 1976 – The Second US Presidential Debates take place. The debate is temporarily interrupted by a brief power outage which cuts off President Ford’s microphone while he is answering a question about the Soviet Union’s involvement in Eastern Europe. Fortunately there are no further technical issues and the second debate is considered another strong performance by Ford.

15th October 1976 – The US Vice Presidential Debate (the first of their kind in US history) takes place. The debate is notable for Bob Dole’s statements concerning what he refers to as ‘Democratic Wars’ and their collective death toll being equal to the population of Detroit. These statements are subsequently considered damaging to the Republican campaign.

22nd October 1976 – The Third US Presidential Debate takes place. No technical difficulties occur during the debate and Carter is narrowly considered the victor despite another competent performance by Ford.

2nd November 1976 – The 1976 US Presidential Election takes place.
Despite the Democrats beginning the campaign with a 33-point lead in the polls, the Republicans narrowly win the election with 276 Electoral Votes to 261 (with 1 Faithless Elector in the State of Washington voting for Ronald Reagan).
The election results are also notable for the narrow margins of victory on a State level, with 20 States being won by a margin of less than 5%, the two closest being Ohio and Wisconsin, which both went Republican by less than 0.1%.

1976 Presidential Election (Ford Wins Ohio & Wisconsin).png

Gerald R. Ford / Bob Dole (Republican) - 276
James Earl Carter / Walter Mondale (Democratic) - 261
Ronald Reagan - 1 (Faithless Elector)

* * *

20th January 1977 – Gerald R. Ford is inaugurated for a full term as President of the United States. Due to the terms of the 22nd Amendment, he is ineligible for re-election in 1980, having already served more than half of Richard Nixon's second Presidential term.

-

As you may have guessed, our PODs are Ford narrowly avoiding the "no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe" gaffe due to technical difficulties (the first debate difficulties are OTL), as well as Ohio & Wisconsin narrowly going Republican instead of Democrat (by 0.27% and 1.68% respectively OTL).
And off we go...


1976 Presidential Election (Ford Wins Ohio & Wisconsin).png
 
Interesting. I haven't seen a Ford wins TL before. Kennedy vs Dole 1980 would be cool to see, as a suggestion.

Minor nitpick. Wouldn't they just ask the same question to Ford once the technological difficulties are over? Though I suppose Ford could have by then thought of a better answer.
 
Interesting. I haven't seen a Ford wins TL before. Kennedy vs Dole 1980 would be cool to see, as a suggestion.

Minor nitpick. Wouldn't they just ask the same question to Ford once the technological difficulties are over? Though I suppose Ford could have by then thought of a better answer.

Dole would run in this 1980, but he'd probably lose to Reagan. Reagan nearly defeated a sitting President in the primary back in 1976, so he'd have an easier time beating the Vice President tied to an administration that is probably unpopular with all the bad crap that happens between 76-80. Plus it sticks to the pattern that occurs on the Republican side where the runner-up gets the nod the next time. So Reagan gets the nomination for 1980, he most likely loses, then Dole gets a shot in 1984.

And I doubt Kennedy goes anywhere as long as Chappaquiddick still happens. He only challenged Carter in the primary because he wasn't liberal enough for the party at that time, had butted heads with the Democrats in Congress, and was struggling as President. With a wide open primary for the Democrats in this 1980 there'd be a lot more choices than just Carter, so Kennedy would simply endorse someone closer to his positions than actually run for the job himself.
 
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Dole would run in this 1980, but he'd probably lose to Reagan[...]So Reagan gets the nomination for 1980, he most likely loses, then Dole gets a shot in 1984.

Pretty much exactly what I was thinking - Reagan narrowly edges out Dole in 80 and Dole gets the nod in 84, with neither winning (although 84 depends on how this timeline develops).
Of course, with the Republicans most likely going down in 1980, I imagine that this butterflies away the Republican landslide that year in the Senate Elections. In other words, people like George McGovern, Birch Bay and Frank Church could potentially be around for a while longer, while the likes of Dan Quayle will have to find another way into higher office.

The Democratic nomination in 1980 is an interesting one for this timeline, since Kennedy probably wouldn't run and a Mondale candidacy would probably be hampered by his being part of the losing ticket in what should have been a Democratic 1976 (as ironic as 'Mondale beats Reagan in 1980' would be).
Also, I have a feeling Carter's loss could also potentially place a stigma on nominating a Southerner at the top of the ticket, at least for the near-future - that potentially eliminates people like Reubin Askew of Florida, Ernest Hollings of South Carolina and Cliff Finch of Mississippi (all of whom ran in either 1980 or 1984 OTL), as well as potential candidates like Dale Bumpers of Arkansas or even Lloyd Bentsen of Texas.
Sound plausible? If so, who does that leave for the Democratic nod in 1980?

Governor Jerry Brown (California) - Ran in 1976 and OTL's 1980, but had also earned the 'Governor Moonbeam' moniker by OTL's 1980.
Morris Udall (Utah) - Ran in 1976. Liberal (supported Ted Kennedy in OTL's 1980), but also Mormon (considered a big enough deal in 2008 & 12, so I imagine it would be quite the hurdle in 1980).
Senator Birch Bayh (Indiana) - Ran in 1976. Popular with the Liberal wing of the party. Lost his Senate seat to Dan Quayle in OTL's 'Reagan Landslide'.
Senator Frank Church (Idaho) - Ran in 1976. Considered Carter's most likely VP pick until he went with Mondale. Known Nationally due to his Chairmanship of the Church Committee. Lost his Senate seat to Steve Symms by 0.9% of the vote in OTL's 'Reagan Landslide'. Died of a (previously undetected?) Pancreatic Tumour in 1984.
Senator John Glenn (Ohio) - Ran in OTL's 1984. Nationally famous as the first American to orbit the Earth and the fifth Person in Space.

Thoughts? Suggestions?
 
While I'm here, a few Pop Cultural items.

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25th May 1977 – The film ‘Star Wars’, directed by George Lucas, is released. Not expected to be a great success, the film goes on to become one of the most successful films of the decade, replacing Stephen Spielberg’s ‘Jaws’ as the highest earning film in North America.

7th July 1977 – The James Bond film ‘The Spy Who Loved Me’, the third to star Roger Moore in the title role, is released. The film is considered a significant improvement over its predecessor, 1974’s ‘The Man With The Golden Gun’.

* * *

20th June 1978 – Director Mark Robson suffers a heart attack during filming for the film ‘Superman’. While Robson ultimately recovers and is able to see the filming of Superman through, Richard Lester is hired to complete filming ‘Superman II’ (both films being filmed simultaneously).

26th November 1978 – Director Mark Robson suffers a second heart attack, this time fatal. He dies 8 days short of his 65th birthday and two weeks before the premier of ‘Superman’.

10th December 1978 – The film ‘Superman’, directed by the late Mark Robson, is released. The film, starring Olympic athlete Bruce Jenner in the title role, is a commercial success but is criticized for it's campy tone and bloated script.

* * *

8th December 1979 – The film ‘Superman II’, directed by the late Mark Robson and Richard Lester, is released. The film, despite experiencing the same criticisms as its predecessor, is a modest financial success.

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Figured it was a bit late to butterfly away or significantly alter the original Star Wars and 1977's Bond Film (though their sequels are another story), but Superman... wow, did those films have a troubled production and so many what ifs.
 
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Governor Jerry Brown (California) - Ran in 1976 and OTL's 1980, but had also earned the 'Governor Moonbeam' moniker by OTL's 1980.
Morris Udall (Utah) - Ran in 1976. Liberal (supported Ted Kennedy in OTL's 1980), but also Mormon (considered a big enough deal in 2008 & 12, so I imagine it would be quite the hurdle in 1980).
Senator Birch Bayh (Indiana) - Ran in 1976. Popular with the Liberal wing of the party. Lost his Senate seat to Dan Quayle in OTL's 'Reagan Landslide'.
Senator Frank Church (Idaho) - Ran in 1976. Considered Carter's most likely VP pick until he went with Mondale. Known Nationally due to his Chairmanship of the Church Committee. Lost his Senate seat to Steve Symms by 0.9% of the vote in OTL's 'Reagan Landslide'. Died of a (previously undetected?) Pancreatic Tumour in 1984.
Senator John Glenn (Ohio) - Ran in OTL's 1984. Nationally famous as the first American to orbit the Earth and the fifth Person in Space.

Thoughts? Suggestions?

I personally like Jerry Brown, but he's a quirky dude, and I'm not sure the American people would elect someone like him.

For the period of the late 70's to early 80's, Mo Udall would be one of my top picks, but by 1980 he became aware of his Parkinson's disease, so that may stop him from pursuing the job.

Birch Bayh would be my top choice for the nomination in 1980 under this scenario, except there are two issues: The first is his Senate seat is up that same year so he'd have to decide which race to go for, and the second and bigger issue is that his wife loses her battle with breast cancer and dies in April of 1979. That might be too soon for him to run for President, we just don't know.

Church, Glenn, and Gary Hart also have their Senate seats up for re-election in 1980, so that makes it difficult to tell who'd give it up to run.

Scoop Jackson will probably run, but he won't get close to the nomination.

Even though the party will work hard to prevent another Carter you're going to have somebody from the South run, probably Askew. I don't think Bumpers jumps in because his Senate seat is up that year too.

It wouldn't surprise me if Joe Biden jumps into the race. Not that he thinks he'll stand a chance of winning, but maybe just to get some national exposure for future elections as the face of the next generation of Democrats, or maybe in the hopes of getting the VP slot on the ticket. He'd be 37 on election day, but his Senate seat isn't up so why not take a shot?

There's Muskie, but he'd be 66 that year, and I don't know if he really wanted it by that point. He still looks good on paper, and there was a poll that showed him ahead of Carter and Kennedy if he ran against them in the 1980 primary and he'd tie Reagan in the General, but would his heart be in it for another Presidential run?

I think Mondale might test the waters, but he'd be tainted by the loss in 1976 so he'd stand no chance, and would probably drop out early.

There's a lot of Democratic candidates to choose from, but each one has some issue that you'd need to deal with to make it work for 1980. But after 12 years of Republican Presidents with some pretty crappy years during that last term, in addition to Reagan's extreme views on government without the juxtaposition of the perceived failure of the Carter Presidency for him to run against, the Democrats should be favored to win with a decent candidate.
 
This was from an earlier thread on this topic, but I'll paste it here. This is about the Senate elections after a Ford win:

With a President Ford during the 1978 midterms, you can expect a shift in voting percentages away from Republicans and toward the Democrats compared to what they were in President Carter's midterm, as people tend to vote against the party in control of the Presidency. I think Democrats still lose Colorado, Maine, and Mississippi, because those elections were blowouts in the OTL so a shift of a few percentage points would not change anything. They might still lose South Dakota, especially if Senator Abourezk retires. He only served one term and was just 47 years old at the time, so I'm not sure if his decision was based on a tough re-election fight in a bad midterm situation, or if he was really just tired of politics. Since I don't know what his intentions were and what the numbers of a matchup between him and Pressler would be, I'll say he still retires and Pressler wins the seat. So that's 4 pickups for Republicans.

For the Democrats in 1978, I'd say they still pickup Massachusetts, Michigan, Nebraska, New Jersey, and Oklahoma as in the OTL. Texas and Virginia were both decided by a half a percent or less, so with a national swing of a few points those should be pickups for the Dems too. Illinois, New Mexico, and North Carolina would be much closer, giving the Democrats a chance to win some of those seats. I think Helms survives in North Carolina, but Democrats win Illinois and New Mexico. So that's 9 possible pickups for the Democrats.

Without Mondale becoming VP the clusterfuck in Minnesota doesn't occur, with Governor Anderson resigning office to take the seat and new Governor Perpich being involved and both of them losing their elections in the midterms. Now Mondale stays in office and should win re-election in 1978. Humphrey still dies, and his wife is still appointed to fill the office until the special election in 1978. But now Anderson can run for that seat while finishing up his second term as Governor, and Perpich will run for Governor and both probably win in this timeline. Then there are some of the close races Democratic incumbents lost that could switch in this timeline. A shift of just a couple of points from Republican to Democrat should save Dick Clark in Iowa, and McIntyre in New Hampshire.

So after the 1978 midterms we have 9 Democratic pickups to 4 Republican, giving Democrats a net gain of 5 seats, to bring their numbers up to 66 seats in the Senate, while Republicans have 33, and Harry F. Byrd, Jr. of Virginia as the lone Independent who caucuses with the Dems.

The 1980 Senate races will have even bigger changes without the Reagan wave to bring in 12 new Republican Senators. Even if Reagan runs in this timeline and gets the nomination, the conditions will not be there for a Republican wave election. If anything the momentum would be with the Democrats after 12 years of Republican Presidents. Democrats would be defending a bunch of the seats held by the Watergate Babies, so there aren't too many pickup opportunities. The only possible close races of Republican controlled seats are in Arizona, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Goldwater held his seat by just 1.1% in a Republican wave year, so he's toast. Al D'Amato defeated Elizabeth Holtzman in New York by just 1.4%, so he will lose too, and Holtzman becomes the first Female Senator from New York instead of Hillary Clinton 20 years later. I think Don Nickles still holds Oklahoma for the Republicans in this timeline. He won by 10% in the OTL, and even though it is much closer this time, that's a big gap to make up. Packwood probably wins re-election in Oregon in a squeaker, so another Republican hold. In Pennsylvania, Specter won the seat of retiring Schweiker by just 2% in the OTL. If Schweiker still retires then Flaherty probably beats Specter. So we have 3 likely pickups for the Democrats in 1980.

As for possible Democratic holds, there are 6 seats that Republicans won by less than 3.5%, so I say they definitely stay Dem this year. Those are Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Another 5 were won by less than 8.4%, so when you take out the wave those become much closer. I think Democrats could hold all of those as well if this becomes a Democratic wave election. The only seat Democrats will probably lose is McGoverns in South Dakota, which was lost by 18.8% in the OTL. So we have a possible Republican pickup of 1 seat.

That means the Democrats win 3 to the Republicans 1, for a net gain of 2 seats, bringing their numbers up to 68 Senate seats, against 31 Republicans, and Independent Harry F. Byrd, Jr. of Virgina who caucuses with the Democrats. With 68/69 votes in the Senate as well as even bigger control of the House, and the Presidency, the Democrats could pass a lot of their agenda in 1981-1982.

That's pretty much a best case scenario for the Democrats in the 1978 and 1980 Senate elections. Of course if they win the Presidency in 1980 as well, then expect 1982 to be completely different as Republicans look to win big. But it still gives the Democrats 2 years to get a lot of their wishlist passed. Especially if the new President comes out of the Congress where they will have a good working relationship with them from the start, unlike Carter.
 
Thanks for the input guys.

At the moment, I'm leaning towards Frank Church & Reubin Askew VS Ronald Reagan & Bill Brock in 1980, with Church's tumour discovered circa 1983 (slightly earlier than OTL). From there, he either resigns when his health starts to fail, or announces that he won't run for another term (intending to finish his term as President) before either dying in office or just making it beyond his term due to medical care. Depending on which option we take, either Askew goes into the 1984 Election as the incumbent or becomes President afterwards.
Thoughts?

Also, another pop culture contribution while I'm here...

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29th April 1978 – The Paramount Television Service (PTVS), an attempt to create a ‘fourth network’, launches.

6th May 1978 – ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ premiers on the Paramount Television Service. In addition to the Original Series cast (minus Leonard Nimoy), the show stars Stephen Collins, Persis Khambatta and David Gautreaux.

5th August 1978 – The Season One finale of ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ airs on PTVS. Despite mixed reviews, the series is picked up for a full 22-episode Season (the first season consisting of 14 episodes – 15 if the Pilot is counted as a two-parter, as it is shown as in later airings) to be aired later in the year.

18th November 1978 – The second season of ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ begins airing on PTVS.

* * *

12th May 1979 – The Season Two finale of ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ airs on PTVS. Due to contract negotiations with several of the main cast (William Shatner in particular), the show has already gone on hiatus and the second season finale is altered in order to serve as a de facto series finale should the show not go back into production.

-

I'll add to these contributions to the main timeline after the rest of you have had a chance to comment.
 
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The Timeline so far...

The Upset of the Century

15th July 1976 – Former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter secures the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Senator Walter Mondale of Minnesota is chosen as the Vice Presidential nominee.

19th August 1976 – Despite a strong challenge from former California Governor Ronald Reagan, incumbent President Gerald Ford secures the Republican Presidential Nomination. Senator Bob Dole of Kansas is named Ford’s running mate, replacing Vice President Nelson Rockefeller on the Republican ticket.

23rd September 1976 – The First US Presidential Debate (the first to be held since the 1960 Election) takes place. The debate is marred by a 27-minute delay caused by a failure in the sound system on stage. President Ford performs well during the debate itself, with most subsequent polls considering Ford the winner.

6th October 1976 – The Second US Presidential Debates take place. The debate is temporarily interrupted by a brief power outage which cuts off President Ford’s microphone while he is answering a question about the Soviet Union’s involvement in Eastern Europe. Fortunately there are no further technical issues and the second debate is considered another strong performance by Ford.

15th October 1976 – The US Vice Presidential Debate (the first of their kind in US history) takes place. The debate is notable for Bob Dole’s statements concerning what he refers to as ‘Democratic Wars’ and their collective death toll being equal to the population of Detroit. These statements are subsequently considered damaging to the Republican campaign.

22nd October 1976 – The Third US Presidential Debate takes place. No technical difficulties occur during the debate and Carter is narrowly considered the victor despite another competent performance by Ford.

2nd November 1976 – The 1976 US Presidential Election takes place.
Despite the Democrats beginning the campaign with a 33-point lead in the polls, the Republicans narrowly win the election with 276 Electoral Votes to 261 (with 1 Faithless Elector in the State of Washington voting for Ronald Reagan).
The election results are also notable for the narrow margins of victory on a State level, with 20 States being won by a margin of less than 5%, the two closest being Ohio and Wisconsin, which both went Republican by less than 0.1%.

1976 Presidential Election (Ford Wins Ohio & Wisconsin).png

Gerald R. Ford / Bob Dole (Republican) - 276
James Earl Carter / Walter Mondale (Democratic) - 261
Ronald Reagan - 1 (Faithless Elector)

* * *

20th January 1977 – Gerald R. Ford is inaugurated for a full term as President of the United States. Due to the terms of the 22nd Amendment, he is ineligible for re-election in 1980, having already served more than half of Richard Nixon's second Presidential term.

25th May 1977 – The film ‘Star Wars’, directed by George Lucas, is released. Not expected to be a great success, the film goes on to become one of the most successful films of the decade, replacing Stephen Spielberg’s ‘Jaws’ as the highest earning film in North America.

30th June 1977 – The South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), originally founded in 1954, is formally dissolved.

7th July 1977 – The James Bond film ‘The Spy Who Loved Me’, the third to star Roger Moore in the title role, is released. The film is considered a significant improvement over its predecessor, 1974’s ‘The Man With The Golden Gun’.

* * *

29th April 1978 – The Paramount Television Service (PTVS), an attempt to create a ‘fourth network’, launches.

6th May 1978 – ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ premiers on the Paramount Television Service. In addition to the Original Series cast (minus Leonard Nimoy), the show stars Stephen Collins, Persis Khambatta and David Gautreaux.

20th June 1978 – Director Mark Robson suffers a heart attack during filming for the film ‘Superman’. While Robson ultimately recovers and is able to see the filming of Superman through, Richard Lester is hired to complete filming ‘Superman II’ (both films being filmed simultaneously).

5th August 1978 – The Season One finale of ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ airs on PTVS. Despite mixed reviews, the series is picked up for a full 22-episode Season (the first season consisting of 14 episodes – 15 if the Pilot is counted as a two-parter, as it is shown as in later airings) to be aired later in the year.

18th November 1978 – The second season of ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ begins airing on PTVS.

26th November 1978 – Director Mark Robson suffers a second heart attack, this time fatal. He dies 8 days short of his 65th birthday and two weeks before the premier of ‘Superman’.

10th December 1978 – The film ‘Superman’, directed by the Mark Robson, is released. The film, starring Olympic athlete Bruce Jenner in the title role, is a commercial success but is criticized for it’s campy tone and bloated script.

* * *

12th May 1979 – The Season Two finale of ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ airs on PTVS. Due to contract negotiations with several of the main cast (William Shatner in particular), the show has already gone on hiatus and the second season finale is edited in order to serve as a de facto series finale should the show not go back into production.

8th December 1979 – The film ‘Superman II’, directed by the late Mark Robson and Richard Lester, is released. The film, despite experiencing the same criticisms as its predecessor, is a modest financial success.

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1976 Presidential Election (Ford Wins Ohio & Wisconsin).png
 
A few new points to add in...

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31st January 1977 – The Space Shuttle 'Enterprise' begins operational testing.

12th August 1977 – The Space Shuttle 'Enterprise' undergoes it's first free flight.

15th August 1977 – Singer Elvis Presley suffers a massive heart attack two days before the beginning of a scheduled concert tour (which is subsequently cancelled) and falls into a coma.

20th August 1977 – The ‘Voyager 2’ Space Probe is launched by NASA. Despite the number, it is the first of the Voyager probes to be launched.

5th September 1977 – The ‘Voyager 1’ Space Probe is launched by NASA. Despite the number, it is the second of the Voyager probes to be launched.

12th September 1977 – South African anti-apartheid activist Stephen Biko dies while in police custody, allegedly the result of a hunger strike. Despite an ongoing journalistic investigation, the true cause of Biko’s death (massive head trauma) is successfully concealed by South African authorities for the time being.

20th November 1977 – Egyptian President Anwar Sadat becomes the first Arab leader to visit Israel, meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister as part of peace negotiations stemming from 1973’s Arab-Israeli War.

* * *

3rd March 1978 – In Rhodesia, the ‘Internal Settlement’ is signed between Rhodesian Prime Minister Ian Smith and members of the United African National Congress (UANC), Rhodesia’s only legal black party. An interim governing Executive Council is established until elections can be held under a new constitution, both to be voted on the following year.

19th September 1978 – A week after the first anniversary of Stephen Biko’s death, evidence that Biko did not die as the result of a hunger strike is discovered and published. The news spreads throughout both South Africa and the rest of the world, causing outrage worldwide and triggering riots throughout South Africa.
As a result of the crisis, South African Prime Minister John Vorster decides to postpone his planned retirement.

* * *

28th March 1979 – In the UK, a Vote of No Confidence against the Labour Government of James Callaghan is narrowly defeated.

4th May 1979 – South African Prime Minister John Vorster steps down, partly due to growing criticisms over his role in the ongoing ‘Muldergate Scandal’.

11th May 1979 – After a closely fought leadership election, John Vorster is succeeded as National Party Leader by Foreign Minister Roelof F. Botha (popularly known by the nickname ‘Pik’), who becomes Prime Minister of South Africa.

1st June 1979 – The ‘Republic of Zimbabwe Rhodesia’ is declared in Rhodesia, following the overall General Election held throughout April and May. Bishop Abel Murozewa becomes Prime Minister of Zimbabwe Rhodesia, while Josiah Gumede becomes President.
Joshua Nkomo of the Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU) and Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU), both of whom declined the offer to take part in the elections, denounce the election results and the new government. As a result, the Bush War continues.

12th June 1979 – The United States Senate votes to lift economic sanctions against Zimbabwe Rhodesia.

6th September 1979 – The UK General Election is held. Jim Callaghan’s Labour government is defeated by the Conservative Party in a landslide. Margaret Thatcher becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

-
-

So with all that in mind...

- How does a South Africa under Pik Botha differ from one under PW?
- Does a different US Ambassador to the UN (William Scranton instead of Andrew Young) affect the fate of Zimbabwe Rhodesia?
- Does Ford's Administration affect peace talks between Israel and Egypt?
- Does four extra months of Jim Callaghan as UK Prime Minister change anything?
- Any potential differences to the Space Program with Ford still in office?

Thoughts? Suggestions? Opinions? Anything?
 
Another question is do we confirm Elvis's death or not?

This is very good, but we need to make sure that future posts are sensible and not random.
 
Elvis's fate is something I'm hoping to leave for the rest of you to decide.
Bear in mind, the entire timeline by it's very nature is subject to change, based on suggestions, contributions and opinions from others.
With that in mind, anyone have any information on when Presidential candidates declared their intent circa 1980? I have Ronald Reagan declaring around the 13th of November 1979, but can't find anything on Jerry Brown or anyone else. I know I'll have to invent more than a few dates, but I'd rather have something of a guideline based on OTL.


While I'm here, a few more pop cultural items for your consideration...

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February 1977 – The ‘First Video Game Crash’ begins. The crash in the games console market occurs when manufacturers of older ‘dedicated’ consoles (also known as ‘Pong’ consoles) flood the market in order to clear stock, creating a glut in the market. The crash ultimately leads to companies such as RCA and Fairchild leaving the market.

11th September 1977 – Atari, Inc releases the ‘Video Computer System’ (VCS), the company’s first non-dedicated home console and the second cartridge-based console to enter the North American market (the first being the Fairchild VES/Channel F, released the previous November). The console is a commercial success and marks the beginning of the end of the ‘First Video Game Crash’.
In response to the VCS’s release, Fairchild changes the name of their own console from ‘Video Entertainment System’ (VES) to ‘Channel F’ (in reference to the machine’s F8 CPU).

* * *

13th January 1978 – After a long (and increasingly public) series of disputes between United Artists and it's parent company Transamerica, the two companies reach a last-minute compromise over both administrative expenses and the creative direction of UA. Rumours of a threatened walkout by a number of prominent UA executives are strongly denied by Transamerica.

* * *

23rd February 1979 – The film ‘The Deer Hunter’ (based on the unproduced ‘The Man Who Came to Play’) is released. Originally planned for release the previous December, the film is one of the first major releases to depict the events of the Vietnam War in a negative light.

15th June 1979 – ‘Rocky II’, the sequel to the 1976 film ‘Rocky’, is released. Sylvester Stallone, Carl Weathers, Burgess Meredith and Talia Shire all reprise their roles from the first film. Like the first film, ‘Rocky II’ is a commercial success.

15th August 1979 – After a long and troubled production, the Francis Ford Coppola film ‘Apocalypse Now’ (loosely based on the novel ‘Heart of Darkness’). Set during the Vietnam War, the film receives near-universal acclaim and is a commercial success.

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Well, I think it's safe to say that the collaborative experiment has been a resounding failure. So with that in mind, the full timeline in it's most likely final form.

-

The Upset of the Century

15th July 1976 – Former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter secures the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Senator Walter Mondale of Minnesota is chosen as the Vice Presidential nominee.

19th August 1976 – Despite a strong challenge from former California Governor Ronald Reagan, incumbent President Gerald Ford secures the Republican Presidential Nomination. Senator Bob Dole of Kansas is named Ford’s running mate, replacing Vice President Nelson Rockefeller on the Republican ticket.

23rd September 1976 – The First US Presidential Debate (the first to be held since the 1960 Election) takes place. The debate is marred by a 27-minute delay caused by a failure in the sound system on stage. President Ford performs well during the debate itself, with most subsequent polls considering Ford the winner.

6th October 1976 – The Second US Presidential Debates take place. The debate is temporarily interrupted by a brief power outage which cuts off President Ford’s microphone while he is answering a question about the Soviet Union’s involvement in Eastern Europe. Fortunately there are no further technical issues and the second debate is considered another strong performance by Ford.

15th October 1976 – The US Vice Presidential Debate (the first of their kind in US history) takes place. The debate is notable for Bob Dole’s statements concerning what he refers to as ‘Democratic Wars’ and their collective death toll being equal to the population of Detroit. These statements are subsequently considered damaging to the Republican campaign.

22nd October 1976 – The Third US Presidential Debate takes place. No technical difficulties occur during the debate and Carter is narrowly considered the victor despite another competent performance by Ford.

2nd November 1976 – The 1976 US Presidential Election takes place.
Despite the Democrats beginning the campaign with a 33-point lead in the polls, the Republicans narrowly win the election with 276 Electoral Votes to 261 (with 1 Faithless Elector in the State of Washington voting for Ronald Reagan).
The election results are also notable for the narrow margins of victory on a State level, with 20 States being won by a margin of less than 5%, the two closest being Ohio and Wisconsin, which both went Republican by less than 0.1%.

1976 Presidential Election (Ford Wins Ohio & Wisconsin).png

Gerald R. Ford / Bob Dole (Republican) - 276
James Earl Carter / Walter Mondale (Democratic) - 261
Ronald Reagan - 1 (Faithless Elector)

* * *

20th January 1977 – Gerald R. Ford is inaugurated for a full term as President of the United States. Due to the terms of the 22nd Amendment, he is ineligible for re-election in 1980, having already served more than half of Richard Nixon's second Presidential term.

31st January 1977 – The Space Shuttle 'Enterprise' begins operational testing.

February 1977 – The ‘First Video Game Crash’ begins. The crash in the games console market occurs when manufacturers of older ‘dedicated’ consoles (also known as ‘Pong’ consoles) flood the market in order to clear stock, creating a glut in the market. The crash ultimately leads to companies such as RCA and Fairchild leaving the market.

25th May 1977 – The film ‘Star Wars’, directed by George Lucas, is released. Not expected to be a great success, the film goes on to become one of the most successful films of the decade, replacing Stephen Spielberg’s ‘Jaws’ as the highest earning film in North America.

30th June 1977 – The South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), originally founded in 1954, is formally dissolved.

7th July 1977 – The James Bond film ‘The Spy Who Loved Me’, the third to star Roger Moore in the title role, is released. The film is considered a significant improvement over its predecessor, 1974’s ‘The Man With The Golden Gun’.

12th August 1977 – The Space Shuttle 'Enterprise' undergoes it's first free flight.

15th August 1977 – Singer Elvis Presley suffers a massive heart attack two days before the beginning of a scheduled concert tour (which is subsequently cancelled) and falls into a coma.

20th August 1977 – The ‘Voyager 2’ Space Probe is launched by NASA. Despite the number, it is the first of the Voyager probes to be launched.

5th September 1977 – The ‘Voyager 1’ Space Probe is launched by NASA. Despite the number, it is the second of the Voyager probes to be launched.

11th September 1977 – Atari, Inc releases the ‘Video Computer System’ (VCS), the company’s first non-dedicated home console and the second cartridge-based console to enter the North American market (the first being the Fairchild VES/Channel F, released the previous November). The console is a commercial success and marks the beginning of the end of the ‘First Video Game Crash’.
In response to the VCS’s release, Fairchild changes the name of their own console from ‘Video Entertainment System’ (VES) to ‘Channel F’ (in reference to the machine’s F8 CPU).

12th September 1977 – South African anti-apartheid activist Stephen Biko dies while in police custody, allegedly the result of a hunger strike. Despite an ongoing journalistic investigation, the true cause of Biko’s death (massive head trauma) is successfully concealed by South African authorities for the time being.

20th November 1977 – Egyptian President Anwar Sadat becomes the first Arab leader to visit Israel, meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister as part of peace negotiations stemming from 1973’s Arab-Israeli War.

* * *

13th January 1978 – After a long (and increasingly public) series of disputes between United Artists and it's parent company Transamerica, the two companies reach a last-minute compromise over both administrative expenses and the creative direction of UA. Rumours of a threatened walkout by a number of prominent UA executives are strongly denied by Transamerica.

3rd March 1978 – In Rhodesia, the ‘Internal Settlement’ is signed between Rhodesian Prime Minister Ian Smith and members of the United African National Congress (UANC), Rhodesia’s only legal black party. An interim governing Executive Council is established until elections can be held under a new constitution, both to be voted on the following year.

29th April 1978 – The Paramount Television Service (PTVS), an attempt to create a ‘fourth network’, launches.

6th May 1978 – ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ premiers on the Paramount Television Service. In addition to the Original Series cast (minus Leonard Nimoy), the show stars Stephen Collins, Persis Khambatta and David Gautreaux.

20th June 1978 – Director Mark Robson suffers a heart attack during filming for the film ‘Superman’. While Robson ultimately recovers and is able to see the filming of Superman through, Richard Lester is hired to complete filming ‘Superman II’ (both films being filmed simultaneously).

5th August 1978 – The Season One finale of ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ airs on PTVS. Despite mixed reviews, the series is picked up for a full 22-episode Season (the first season consisting of 14 episodes – 15 if the Pilot is counted as a two-parter, as it is shown as in later airings) to be aired later in the year.

19th September 1978 – A week after the first anniversary of Stephen Biko’s death, evidence that Biko did not die as the result of a hunger strike is discovered and published. The news spreads throughout both South Africa and the rest of the world, causing outrage worldwide and triggering riots throughout South Africa.
As a result of the crisis, South African Prime Minister John Vorster decides to postpone his planned retirement.

18th November 1978 – The second season of ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ begins airing on PTVS.

26th November 1978 – Director Mark Robson suffers a second heart attack, this time fatal. He dies 8 days short of his 65th birthday and two weeks before the premier of ‘Superman’.

10th December 1978 – The film ‘Superman’, directed by the late Mark Robson, is released. The film, starring Olympic athlete Bruce Jenner in the title role, is a commercial success but is criticized for it’s campy tone and bloated script.

* * *

26th January 1979 - Former US Vice President Nelson Rockefeller dies of a heart attack at the age of 70.

23rd February 1979 – The film ‘The Deer Hunter’ (based on the unproduced ‘The Man Who Came to Play’) is released. Originally planned for release the previous December, the film is one of the first major releases to depict the events of the Vietnam War in a negative light.

28th March 1979 – In the UK, a Vote of No Confidence against the Labour Government of James Callaghan is narrowly defeated.

4th May 1979 – South African Prime Minister John Vorster steps down, partly due to growing criticisms over his role in the ongoing ‘Muldergate Scandal’.

11th May 1979 – After a closely fought leadership election, John Vorster is succeeded as National Party Leader by Foreign Minister Roelof F. Botha (popularly known by the nickname ‘Pik’), who becomes Prime Minister of South Africa.

12th May 1979 – The Season Two finale of ‘Star Trek: Phase II’ airs on PTVS. Due to contract negotiations with several of the main cast (William Shatner in particular), the show has already gone on hiatus and the second season finale is edited in order to serve as a de facto series finale should the show not go back into production.

1st June 1979 – The ‘Republic of Zimbabwe Rhodesia’ is declared in Rhodesia, following the overall General Election held throughout April and May. Bishop Abel Murozewa becomes Prime Minister of Zimbabwe Rhodesia, while Josiah Gumede becomes President.
Joshua Nkomo of the Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU) and Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU), both of whom declined the offer to take part in the elections, denounce the election results and the new government. As a result, the Bush War continues.

12th June 1979 – The United States Senate votes to lift economic sanctions against Zimbabwe Rhodesia.

15th June 1979 – ‘Rocky II’, the sequel to the 1976 film ‘Rocky’, is released. Sylvester Stallone, Carl Weathers, Burgess Meredith and Talia Shire all reprise their roles from the first film. Like the first film, ‘Rocky II’ is a commercial success.

15th August 1979 – After a long and troubled production, the Francis Ford Coppola film ‘Apocalypse Now’ (loosely based on the novel ‘Heart of Darkness’). Set during the Vietnam War, the film receives near-universal acclaim and is a commercial success.

6th September 1979 – The UK General Election is held. Jim Callaghan’s Labour government is defeated by the Conservative Party in a landslide. Margaret Thatcher becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

13th November 1979 – Former California Governor and 1976 candidate Ronald Reagan announces his candidacy for the 1980 Republican Presidential Nomination.

15th November 1979 – Allegedly caught off guard by Reagan’s announced candidacy, Vice President Bob Dole announces his own candidacy for the 1980 Republican Presidential Nomination.

8th December 1979 – The film ‘Superman II’, directed by the late Mark Robson and Richard Lester, is released. The film, despite experiencing the same criticisms as its predecessor, is a modest financial success.

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1976 Presidential Election (Ford Wins Ohio & Wisconsin).png
 
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I'm sorry that this TL isn't working out. :(

Are you familiar with the alternative Billboard TL. That is a very dynamic group, and perhaps the people behind it might have tips for a future collaboration. I think, too, that they established guidelines, which help.

Good luck in the future!
 
What about Lawton Chiles (D-FL) or Pat Moynihan (D-NY)?

Chiles had been Senator since 1971. However, he might be seen as Carter with more experience but too many quirks. An associate of mine who had gone to college in FL during the 1970s was enamoured of Chiles for walking across the state. Glenn would probably be the better choice. I imagine that ITTL I would be very excited!!

Also, what are your thoughts about relations with the Soviets--and the Olympics? I think that the Soviets might have had a better relationship with Ford as he had been Nixon's VP and he was probably less prone to Carter's "grandstanding." Also, I suspect that, even with Afghanistan, the US would have been less likely to boycott the Olympics, but this is worth researching to see who was behind the boycott. I grew up in an anti-Carter household, so he was blamed for much that was probably not his fault. OTOH, Carter's reputation IOTL has improved vastly.
 
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