This has been discussed in some depth in chat, however not all people post there and this is a classic POD.
Given recent revelations, it seems that Canada was less stable at the time than previously thought. It seems that the major political parties had no plan to deal with a Yes vote. Given that, it doesn't seem implausible that in the face of a paralyzed federal government the whole thing could come flying apart if the western provinces fear of being politically dominated by Ontario came to the fore.
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/what-would-have-come-after-a-yes/
Aside from the rest of Canada managing to hang together (which is boring ), I imagine the most likely result would be partial balkanization, resulting in four nations, Western Canada (B.C., Alberta, Sask., Manitoba and Territories), Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes.
However both Civil War or the peaceful annexation of some (perhaps even many or all) anglophone provinces into the United States would be plausible depending on how events unfolded.
I don't think complete balkanization with every province independent was especially realistic. They'd be vulnerable to complete economic and political domination by the U.S. without any representation or ability to resist.
I'd like to focus on two of the above options.
1. Partial Balkanization
2. Annexation of provinces into the U.S.
What would the political and economic fallout of such events be, within Canada, the U.S. and globally?
Given recent revelations, it seems that Canada was less stable at the time than previously thought. It seems that the major political parties had no plan to deal with a Yes vote. Given that, it doesn't seem implausible that in the face of a paralyzed federal government the whole thing could come flying apart if the western provinces fear of being politically dominated by Ontario came to the fore.
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/what-would-have-come-after-a-yes/
A team of Saskatchewan officials worked quietly to develop contingency plans in the event of a Yes vote in the 1995 Quebec referendum — options that included Saskatchewan following Quebec out of Canada, a new book reveals.
Roy Romanow, the premier of Saskatchewan at the time, never told his full cabinet about the secret committee’s work, Romanow told Chantal Hébert, author of The Morning After: The Quebec Referendum and the Day that Almost Was, to be published by Knopf Canada on Sept. 2. Maclean’s has obtained a copy of the book.
“Filed under the boring title of Constitutional Contingencies — a choice intended to discourage curiosity — [the Saskatchewan committee's] work was funded off the books, outside the provincial Treasury Board process, the better to ensure its secrecy,” Hébert writes.
The committee considered a lot of possibilities for the chaotic period Romanow anticipated after a Yes vote — including Saskatchewan seceding from Canada; a Western union of Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia; abandoning the Canadian dollar to use the U.S. greenback; and even annexation of Saskatchewan, and perhaps other provinces, to the United States. “In the eventuality of a Yes vote, clearly you need to examine all your options,” Romanow says in the book.
Aside from the rest of Canada managing to hang together (which is boring ), I imagine the most likely result would be partial balkanization, resulting in four nations, Western Canada (B.C., Alberta, Sask., Manitoba and Territories), Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes.
However both Civil War or the peaceful annexation of some (perhaps even many or all) anglophone provinces into the United States would be plausible depending on how events unfolded.
I don't think complete balkanization with every province independent was especially realistic. They'd be vulnerable to complete economic and political domination by the U.S. without any representation or ability to resist.
I'd like to focus on two of the above options.
1. Partial Balkanization
2. Annexation of provinces into the U.S.
What would the political and economic fallout of such events be, within Canada, the U.S. and globally?