WI: John Kerry won in 1972

John Kerry ran for Congress in 1972, and was initially the favorite to win but lost in the general election. A Kerry win was something the Nixon White House was also worried about. The person Kerry lost to was a one term Congressman, who later lost to Paul Tsongas who then ran for Senate. Kerry took until 1982 to run and win an election, becoming Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts before becoming a Senator two years later, and the history is known from there.

What if John Kerry had won the Congressional race in 1972?
 
John Kerry ran for Congress in 1972, and was initially the favorite to win but lost in the general election. A Kerry win was something the Nixon White House was also worried about. The person Kerry lost to was a one term Congressman, who later lost to Paul Tsongas who then ran for Senate. Kerry took until 1982 to run and win an election, becoming Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts before becoming a Senator two years later, and the history is known from there.

What if John Kerry had won the Congressional race in 1972?
Maybe he could win in 1978 instead of Tsongas, giving him an extra term in the Senate.
 
Maybe he could win in 1978 instead of Tsongas, giving him an extra term in the Senate.

A win in 1978 could make him an attractive Presidential option for the Democrats in 1988- young (only 45 then), Catholic war hero from Massachusetts with the initials of JFK- the speculative articles would have practically written themselves.
 
IF both the Republican and Democratic nominees for President in 1988 were war heroes then Dan Qualye's draft dodging gets more attention. Unless John Kerry chooses a draft dodging running mate.
 
If the idea is that this earlier victory somehow gets Kerry into the White House, I think in the end his flaws as a candidate that we saw in 2004 still become a factor. His patrician manner, his inability to respond effectively to negative campaigning, and his lack of a set of strongly believed principles or priorities in domestic politics really don't augur well for him winning the White House. I would even cast his nomination victory in 2004 as a fluke in a relatively weak Democratic field: against stronger Democratic eventual nominees like either Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton, I don't think he would do well.

Even if we were to look at tinkering with Kerry's biography to make him a stronger candidate, what about an earlier victory in Massachusetts would make him more attractive outside the northeast, or more palatable to working class voters?
 
At least Kerry would be an improvement over Dukakis.

Honestly, I don't know about this. Dukakis ran strongly on issues like universal health care that had broad-based appeal. He had good support from unions and other traditional members of the Democratic coalition. And he had the benefit of being a governor, which generally carries greater prestige in US politics. And also Dukakis had the son-of-immigrants, man-of-the-people, discount-suits thing going. Which was actually pretty great.

But Dukakis's flaws look very much like Kerry's: he was poor at responding to attacks and poor at framing his policies in a populist way.
 
A win in 1978 could make him an attractive Presidential option for the Democrats in 1988- young (only 45 then), Catholic war hero from Massachusetts with the initials of JFK- the speculative articles would have practically written themselves.

Maybe in this timeline, he'd be the one told "You're no Jack Kennedy". :D
 
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I do remember reading somewhere (can't recall at the moment unfortunately) that Kerry was better at responding to negative attacks in his earlier Senate campaigns, so that might be less of a problem in a hypothetical 1988 race. I do think he would still have an uphill battle though.
 

Realpolitik

Banned
He gets another terms in the Senate. I don't see a Kerry administration as feasible. He just wasn't that good at campaigning, and he wouldn't beat Carter, let alone Clinton.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
I think in the end his flaws as a candidate that we saw in 2004 still become a factor. His patrician manner, his inability to respond effectively to negative campaigning, and his lack of a set of strongly believed principles or priorities in domestic politics really don't augur well for him winning the White House.

These were not his decisive flaws. His decisive flaw, from the very beginning of his career, was that he was playing the veteran card, but an unusual version of it, the anti-war veteran card. It meant he would never in his career get majority support from mainstream veterans organizations, and there'd be tons of willing veterans, perceived as credible enough by part of the media, working to neutralize the strength he was trying to draw from him as a veteran.

Of the flaws listed in the above, I can accept his patrician manner had some significance, but that was baked into him from the very beginning of his political career.

I don't buy the principles/priorities argument. All winning candidates are at least as much chameleons as losing ones are. And I don't think tactics were Kerry's fundamental problem. Gore's defeat can be blamed much more on tactical causes then Kerry's.

Howard Dean would have seemed more principled, but would have lost by more. Jon Edwards could have been considered too lightweight. There were emotional forces in the US public beyond either campaigns control that better explain the outcome than campaign tactics.
 
There's plenty of anti-war veterans. Especially in Vietnam; it was a war where men went because they saw it as their responsibility to go, but often went disagreeing with the war or came home disagreeing with the war. The problem is Kerry is a poster boy for the Vietnam veterans against the war, and the Conservatives hate him for it with a politically important and deciding degree and dedication. Nixon hated him, and even the Bush camp hated him which is why they unleashed what has become known as "swift-boating". There may be a grace period in there between the fall of Nixon and the modern, sainthood of Reagan Conservatism of the early-mid 90s onward.

Another flaw, somewhat touched upon: Kerry did have a divorce in the OTL, and a wife with depression issues, either of which could be a problem.
 
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