More European oil fields discovered before WW2

Based on the discussion in this thread about the cost of synthetic oil:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=354566
I wanted to renew the discussion about the effects of more European oil fields being online during the war and what that would mean.
I brought it up once before, but didn't want to necro an old thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=300285

So given that Germany was in a coal famine during the war, which topped out steel production and the synthetic program was very costly in terms of resources, especially coal and steel, how much of an impact would having access to more natural oil domestically have had on the war?

The role of synthetic oil in the German war effort:
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/becker.htm

Still, between 1938 and 1943, synthetic fuel output underwent a respectable growth from 10 million barrels to 36 million. The percentage of synthetic fuels compared to the yield from all sources grew from 22 percent to more than 50 percent by 1943. The total oil supplies available from all sources for the same period rose from 45 million barrels in 1938 to 71 million barrels in 1943.27

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Overall IIRC Germany needed between 8-10 million tons per year to satisfy all needs and were planning on

Coal was used voraciously by the synthetic process, but could it have been replaced by natural oil in sufficient quantities?

The Matzen oil field in Austria, in the already highly developed Vienna Basin, would be a natural one to have been discovered and was also Europe's largest oil field onshore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matzen_oil_field
Since it was found in 1949 it has produced some 110 million tons IIRC.

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoonebeek
Schoonebeek, within 15 miles of the German border, was discovered in 1943, but hidden from the Germans and put into production right after the war.
250 million barrels have been extracted from 1947-1996. About 7 barrels equals 1 ton, so ~35 million tons in that period.

http://www.econtrader.com/economics/explain/how-much-gasoline-one-barrel-crude-oil.htm

A barrel of crude oil is about 42 US gallons. Oil refineries heat it to 370 degrees celcius, as the vapor rises it is transformed into various oil products. The lighter molecules of gasoline, diesel or jet fuel continue to rise until it is cooled and syphooned into seperate holding tanks. A barrel of crude oil can make about 19 US gallons of gasoline, 10 gallons of diesel, 4 gallons of jet fuel and another 9 gallons of other oil products such as liquid petroleum gas, plastics, lubricants or heating oil.

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Hungary too had a fair bit of oil as yet undiscovered:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algyő_oil_field

84 million tonnes

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagylengyel_oil_field

45 million tonnes

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All of those fields should make Caucasian oil fields totally unnecessary and limit the need for the synthetic program.

What then does the saved coal go toward? More steel? Greater supplies for allies/occupied economies? More synthetic rubber?

No thoughts on the effect of more oil on the war?

The plot of the film, Battle of the Bulge, might have to be changed.

More domestic German oil fuel production means the Panzer divisions could maneuver more and not worry excessively about conserving consumption usage now spend time invading the Southern Russia area to get more fuel...

the synthetic program was started very early so that is developed to a certain extent?

"The shortage of both steel and manpower had delayed the completion of the full construction program of hydrogenation plants. At the beginning of the war, seven plants were in operation, three were in advanced stages of construction, and two others were barely begun. With the exception of four plants for the production of high-octane aviation fuel, no other plants were established after September 1939.

Still, between 1938 and 1943, synthetic fuel output underwent a respectable growth from 10 million barrels to 36 million. The percentage of synthetic fuels compared to the yield from all sources grew from 22 percent to more than 50 percent by 1943. The total oil supplies available from all sources for the same period rose from 45 million barrels in 1938 to 71 million barrels in 1943."

(from same article cited in OP http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/becker.htm)

with new oilfields synthetic fuel production remains at reasonable level of 10 -15 million barrel range.

can imagine Hungary becomes most valued ally, an invasion of Romania (considered very possible at the time) instead of Poland?

Why invade Romania? Hungary just wanted Transylvania and got it without war, Germany still needed millions of tons of oil from Romania (as will Italy) AND its army. Even with the extra Hungarian oil they will not be able to outproduce Romania. Actually with extra coal if they have enough they can in fact buy even more Romanian oil, as the Romanians refused to send more until the Germans paid them with things they needed like coal. If the Germans can use the excess coal and steel saved to make more weapons, things that the Romanians wanted, they can buy up to 1 million more tons over OTL numbers (they were getting around 2 million tons IOTL by 1942 and could have bought about 1 million more IIRC had they been able to pay what Romania needed). In that case oil would not be an issue at all for Germany, if not the entire Axis. That changes the 1942 strategy completely, as they don't need the Caucasian oil, so don't pull the Stalingrad move and get themselves into trouble. Maybe then they post up on parts of the Don instead of advancing past.

wiking said:

Based on the discussion in this thread about the cost of synthetic oil:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=354566
I wanted to renew the discussion about the effects of more European oil fields being online during the war and what that would mean.

A barrel of crude oil is about 42 US gallons. Oil refineries heat it to 370 degrees celcius, as the vapor rises it is transformed into various oil products. The lighter molecules of gasoline, diesel or jet fuel continue to rise until it is cooled and syphooned into seperate holding tanks. A barrel of crude oil can make about 19 US gallons of gasoline, 10 gallons of diesel, 4 gallons of jet fuel and another 9 gallons of other oil products such as liquid petroleum gas, plastics, lubricants or heating oil.

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That's pretty much Straight Run refining, by WWI there was cracking and reformulating, that modified the percentages of products.

The base Crude is very important, Romania had a very 'light' Crude with less long chain hydrocarbons than 'heavy' like Canadian or Venezuelan Crude, and 'sweet' or 'sour' on the sulphur and other impurity content.

wiking said:

Why invade Romania? Hungary just wanted Transylvania and got it without war, Germany still needed millions of tons of oil from Romania (as will Italy) AND its army. Even with the extra Hungarian oil they will not be able to outproduce Romania. Actually with extra coal if they have enough they can in fact buy even more Romanian oil, as the Romanians refused to send more until the Germans paid them with things they needed like coal. If the Germans can use the excess coal and steel saved to make more weapons, things that the Romanians wanted, they can buy up to 1 million more tons over OTL numbers (they were getting around 2 million tons IOTL by 1942 and could have bought about 1 million more IIRC had they been able to pay what Romania needed). In that case oil would not be an issue at all for Germany, if not the entire Axis. That changes the 1942 strategy completely, as they don't need the Caucasian oil, so don't pull the Stalingrad move and get themselves into trouble. Maybe then they post up on parts of the Don instead of advancing past.

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Stalingrad would still have happened, maybe with a little less reckless splitting of army group south into A and B and rushing towards the caucasus. Remember Hitler didnt just want to grab the oil in the south, he wanted to cut off the rest of russia from the supply line that is the volga.

Stalingrad.

Also, where would germany take the iron ore to make more steel (provided extra oil saves them coal as you have described) ?

tomtom34b said:

Stalingrad would still have happened, maybe with a little less reckless splitting of army group south into A and B and rushing towards the caucasus. Remember Hitler didnt just want to grab the oil in the south, he wanted to cut off the rest of russia from the supply line that is the volga.

Stalingrad.

Also, where would germany take the iron ore to make more steel (provided extra oil saves them coal as you have described) ?

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Reading the US monograph on German planning for the war in the East from 1940-42 Case Blue was pretty much exclusively about seizing oil for fighting the US and British. They pretty much assumed the Soviets were beaten and any subsidiary effects of the Volga traffic being interrupted was gravy. Perhaps Stalingrad becomes the focus then of interrupting Volga traffic and AG-South doesn't split at all.

Not sure where, but apparently their bottleneck of supply was coking coal, not iron ore, specially when the captured Ukraine as there was a huge mining area west of the Dniepr.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_Blue#The_oilfields

thaddeus said:

with new oilfields synthetic fuel production remains at reasonable level of 10 -15 million barrel range.

can imagine Hungary becomes most valued ally, an invasion of Romania (considered very possible at the time) instead of Poland?

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wiking said:

Why invade Romania? Hungary just wanted Transylvania and got it without war, Germany still needed millions of tons of oil from Romania (as will Italy) AND its army. Even with the extra Hungarian oil they will not be able to outproduce Romania. Actually with extra coal if they have enough they can in fact buy even more Romanian oil, as the Romanians refused to send more until the Germans paid them with things they needed like coal. If the Germans can use the excess coal and steel saved to make more weapons, things that the Romanians wanted ... In that case oil would not be an issue at all for Germany, if not the entire Axis.

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Why invade Romania? because it brings Hungary fully into Axis, pushes border out to Carpathian mountains shielding their new found oil regions, and they could then dictate terms to (rump state of) Romania (similar treatment given to Slovak Republic.)

seems plausible that Romania could substitute for Poland in a deal with USSR? (territories they occupied IOTL 1940)

leaving aside Romania which other countries subject to influence from increased German coal exports? and weapons?

thaddeus said:

Why invade Romania? because it brings Hungary fully into Axis, pushes border out to Carpathian mountains shielding their new found oil regions, and they could then dictate terms to (rump state of) Romania (similar treatment given to Slovak Republic.)

seems plausible that Romania could substitute for Poland in a deal with USSR? (territories they occupied IOTL 1940)

leaving aside Romania which other countries subject to influence from increased German coal exports? and weapons?

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Romania was a more valuable ally than Hungary and Hungary was already vassalized due to being dependent on Germany economically after the fall of Czechoslovakia and Poland. Hungary was full on part of the Axis and Hitler and Horthy weren't exactly friends. As it was Hungary got what they wanted from Romania and Germany had them totally invested. There is no gain from invading Romania a lot to lose (oil destroyed, a lot more people to occupy, no allied army of which Romania provided the biggest one on the Eastern Front bigger than Italy, and falling food production as conquered people don't work as hard). No, invading Romania was not even considered IOTL for a reason and even increased Hungarian oil production could not top Romania's, nor all its other offerings.

Italy could always use more coal and weapons (and oil).

Yet a High Command study in May of 1941 noted that with monthly military requirements for 7.25 million barrels and imports and home production of only 5.35 million barrels, German stocks would be exhausted by August 1941. The 26 percent shortfall could only be made up with petroleum from Russia. The need to provide the lacking 1.9 million barrels per month

http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/becker.htm

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Matzen oil field 12,300/day 374,125/month 4,489,500/year
Algyő oil field 8,500/day 258,541/month 3,102,500/year
Nagylengyel oil field 2,500/day 76,041/month 912,500/year
Schoonebeek oil field 3,000/day 91,250/month 1,095,000/year
Total 799,958/month 9,599,500/year

I calculated year production as daily*365 and the monthly as year divided by 12,another think to keep in mind is that wiki number's represents today's production,but for the sake of the argument will say that those number's are true for 1940's,which means that the Germans (and that is only them and only the militray) will still be short of 1.1 million barrels per month.

Is it true that the development of the German economy between 1933 and 1939 was retarded by a shortage or raw materials? The shortage of raw materials being because of inadequate domestic supplies and a shortage of foreign currency that restricted the quantities that Germany could import.

E.g. Is it true that Germany could have made more steel before 1939 if it could have imported more iron ore? I believe that much of what they did import came from Alsace-Lorraine. That makes me wonder if the iron ore was an important reason why the French wanted it back.

If Germany was self-sufficient in oil the foreign currency used to buy the oil purchased in the real world could be used to buy other imported raw materials like iron ore to produce more steel.

I would use the labour and steel not needed to build the synthetic oil plants to expand the capacity of the German steel industry and also the mining industry to produce the extra coal. Does anyone know enought to estimate how much extra steelmaking capacity could have been created between 1936 and 1943?

user23123 said:

Matzen oil field 12,300/day 374,125/month 4,489,500/year
Algyő oil field 8,500/day 258,541/month 3,102,500/year
Nagylengyel oil field 2,500/day 76,041/month 912,500/year
Schoonebeek oil field 3,000/day 91,250/month 1,095,000/year
Total 799,958/month 9,599,500/year

I calculated year production as daily*365 and the monthly as year divided by 12,another think to keep in mind is that wiki number's represents today's production,but for the sake of the argument will say that those number's are true for 1940's,which means that the Germans (and that is only them and only the militray) will still be short of 1.1 million barrels per month.

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The modern numbers are a significant decline due to the advanced exploitation of these fields. Schoonebeek is mostly tapped out by now and is only being put back into use now using advanced methods. Same with the Nagylengyel field. Production would be much higher. Also IOTL as the war went on the capture of Polish fields and expansion of existing fields in Austria boosted production well over the amount needed.

Plus with restricting the synthetic program to 1939 levels they can make extra coal shipments to Romania to get extra oil, IIRC up to 1 million tons a year or ~583k barrels a month.

http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/becker.htm

Even before the Russian prospects had come to naught, Romania had developed into Germany’s chief overland supplier of oil. From 2.8 million barrels in 1938, Romania’s exports to Germany increased to 13 million barrels by 1941,6 a level that was essentially maintained through 1942 and 1943.7 Although the exports were almost half of Romania’s total production, they were considerably less than the Germans expected. One reason for the shortfall was that the Romanian fields were being depleted. There were other reasons as well why the Romanians failed to increase their shipments. Foremost among these was Germany’s inability to make all of its promised deliveries of coal and other products to Romania.

Even with the addition of the Romanian deliveries, overland oil imports after 1939 could not make up for the loss of overseas shipments. In order to become less dependent on outside sources, the Germans undertook a sizable expansion program of their own meager domestic oil pumping. Before the annexation of Austria in 1938, oil fields in Germany were concentrated in northwestern Germany. After 1938, the Austrian oil fields were available also, and the expansion of crude oil output was chiefly effected there. Primarily as a result of this expansion, Germany’s domestic output of crude oil increased from approximately 3.8 million barrels in 1938 to almost 12 million barrels in 1944.10 Yet the production of domestic crude oil never equaled in any way the levels attained by Germany’s other major supplier of oil, the synthetic fuel plants.

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Galician oilfields help by the Soviets after the invasion of the USSR in June 1941 resulted in their capture and use by the Germans too, which was after that May 1941 study you quoted.

http://eiaonline.com/history/bloodforoil.htm

[FONT=Book Antiqua, Times New Roman, Times]The Oil Commandos, however, ran into difficulties of their own. They arrived at the outskirts of the Galician oil fields on 15 September, and set up an office at Jaslo. But by the time the XXII Corps moved ahead to Winniki, the Soviets had entered the picture and occupied the fields ahead of them. Germany ended up capturing only 30 percent of Poland's oil, and had to negotiate with Stalin for an annual sale of oil equivalent to the other 70 percent.[/FONT]

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http://kehilalinks.jewishgen.org/drohobycz/history/petroleum.asp

The oil industry was fully operational during the Soviet occupation of 1939-1941. Because Poland had introduced updated refining technology during the inter-war period that was unknown in the Soviet Union, many Russian specialists from the Baku and Grozny oilfields came to Borysław to learn latest technology.
When Germans occupied Borysław in June, 1941, many of the workers in the oil industry managed to escape to USSR. In his book, Leopold Held writes about his life in Kazakhstan during the second World War where numerous specialists in drilling and refining survived during the war.
The Germans maintained drilling and refining operations throughout the war and many Jews were able to survive the Holocaust, as "workers needed for the defense industry of the Third Reich".

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http://kehilalinks.jewishgen.org/drohobycz/maps/Map_oilfields.asp

user23123 said:

Matzen oil field 12,300/day 374,125/month 4,489,500/year
Algyő oil field 8,500/day 258,541/month 3,102,500/year
Nagylengyel oil field 2,500/day 76,041/month 912,500/year
Schoonebeek oil field 3,000/day 91,250/month 1,095,000/year
Total 799,958/month 9,599,500/year

I calculated year production as daily*365 and the monthly as year divided by 12,another think to keep in mind is that wiki number's represents today's production,but for the sake of the argument will say that those number's are true for 1940's,which means that the Germans (and that is only them and only the militray) will still be short of 1.1 million barrels per month.

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This is not right - initial production from these fields will be up to 10x the current levels.

this graph shows the annual output of oil in the Netherlands since 1945

red is Schoonebeek, orange oilfields in the western Netherlands
Schoonebeek peaked at 1M m³ annually between 1955 and 1985 (=6,3M barrels annually)
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aardolieproduktie_nederland.svg

so when the western Netherlands oilfields are added, the Netherlands has a potential production capacity of 2M m³ a year - 12,6 Million barrels

Derek Pullem said:

This is not right - initial production from these fields will be up to 10x the current levels.

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http://viennabasin.spe.org/aboutus/whatisspevbs/oilandgasinaustria

Because of the war situation the open exploration areas were licensed to German companies, which started extensive exploration activities. In 1943, 102 drilling rigs were in operation in the Vienna Basin area, as a consequence oil production rose to more than 1,3 million tons per year.

After extensive disassembly of available oil field equipment, SMV (Soviet Mineral Oil Administration in Austria) started production and exploration activities in the Vienna Basin, and in 1949 the largest oil field in Europe was discovered : Matzen.

The development of this discovery brought the oil production in Austria to a record high of 3,665.91 tons in 1955.

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http://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/oegg/Band_92_235_262.pdf
According to this Matzen when discovered had 80 million tons of oil.

So with Matzen production nearly tripled in Austria within 6 years. That number is roughly the equivalent of ~26 million barrels a year, which is about 2.16 million barrels a month for Austria in 1955, which was 2.36 million tons more than 1943, ~16.52 million barrels a year more, and 1.376 million more barrels a month. Matzen alone before the others would nearly equal the May 1941 needs. Of course that 1941 was before Galician oil fields were seized and Austrian oilfields were exploited to 1943 levels, a peak before the Allied bombing started.

Schoonebeek, which had 250 million barrels of recoverable oil in place and was right next to Germany produced that between 1947-1996, 49 years.
Assuming equal production per year Schoonebeek generated over 5 million barrels a year, or 416k per month.

Matzen and Schoonebeek alone cover that May 1941 demand before the Austrian field expansion to 1943 levels and Galician fields are found. That leaves out any extra coal traded for more Romanian oil, any further expansion of synthetic capacity, any West Dutch fields, or any Hungarian extra capacity.

Schoonebeek would be horribly vulnerable to BC attacks though.

Also Germans might seek to really suck the oil out as fast as possible (something the Dutch declined to do) in the '50s

When I worked at Schoonebeek (on the onshore gas fields not oil) in the 1980's there was still a trickle of production but there was always an argument about what the Germans were doing on their side of the border in terms of exploiting the oil from Schoonebeek area.

Derek Pullem said:

Schoonebeek would be horribly vulnerable to BC attacks though.

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They weren't very effective at hitting small targets like that before 1943 at night and the Netherlands was heavily stacked with AAA and fighters historically anyway and bombers usually routed around it by day and night if possible, even in 1945. Mosquitos might be able to do damage to it in 1944, but by then things are pretty much falling apart anyway. By day it would be untouchable until the USAAF shows up and is willing to take the losses to smash it.

Derek Pullem said:

Also Germans might seek to really suck the oil out as fast as possible (something the Dutch declined to do) in the '50s

When I worked at Schoonebeek (on the onshore gas fields not oil) in the 1980's there was still a trickle of production but there was always an argument about what the Germans were doing on their side of the border in terms of exploiting the oil from Schoonebeek area.

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Interesting. I didn't know it crossed over into Germany?

wiking said:

Interesting. I didn't know it crossed over into Germany?

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Yep.

Several smaller fields are also close by in Germany which can affect production in Schoonebeek as well (shared aquifer)