AHC : Better Russian military reforms before WWI
- Thread starter Neirdak
- Start date
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
I'm not sure if Russia losing the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-78 would result in an earlier need for reform though, since their victory convinced them that they don't need to reform their military.
Pretty difficult.
You have of course the "material" obstacles. A Russia that is far behind in iron and steel production compared to the USA, Germany and Britain. To change that more than in OTL you need even higher investments here.
After all foreigners did invest in the Russian heavy industries before 1914.
Plus of course additional investments for armament and equipment factories and railroads.
Then of course if you really want "a Russian military at the same level of the German military" you also have to deal with illiteracy in Russia. The 1897 Russian Census gave a literacy rate of 21% for the Russian Empire. Not the best condition for a "modern 1914" army.
Plus there´s the idea in the German army that if an opportunity presents itself you (officer, NCO) are encouraged to exploit that situation without waiting for orders. Correct me if I´m wrong but I think the Russian army was much more "wait for orders from the top". So you´d also need a change in the army culture.
You have of course the "material" obstacles. A Russia that is far behind in iron and steel production compared to the USA, Germany and Britain. To change that more than in OTL you need even higher investments here.
After all foreigners did invest in the Russian heavy industries before 1914.
Plus of course additional investments for armament and equipment factories and railroads.
Then of course if you really want "a Russian military at the same level of the German military" you also have to deal with illiteracy in Russia. The 1897 Russian Census gave a literacy rate of 21% for the Russian Empire. Not the best condition for a "modern 1914" army.
Plus there´s the idea in the German army that if an opportunity presents itself you (officer, NCO) are encouraged to exploit that situation without waiting for orders. Correct me if I´m wrong but I think the Russian army was much more "wait for orders from the top". So you´d also need a change in the army culture.
Neirdak
Banned
I am well aware of the material obstacles and high illiteracy of the Russian masses.
I admit that I don't totally know how to improve literacy in a relatively short 30 years-long period, they would need an historical figure for that or big reforms, like the compulsory education of the freed serfs. Leo Tolstoy established a peasant school inside his estate, personally taught there, and encouraged other people to do the same. Konstantin Dmitrievich Ushinsky could help too. An earlier the "Away with Illiteracy" voluntary society would be awesome. Such figures could have influence on "The Statute on Elementary Public Schools of 1864", published by Alexander II. I think the important point is to block the counter-reforms of the 1870s-1880s.
An early nationalization of educational institutions could really improve the situation, especially with a free and unified compulsory school. Vocational studies would also help industrialization. Educating women is a great way to educate their children. Wow it's a huge task, even if many militaries also suffered from illiteracy in WWI.
My own Pod idea was to have higher German (and Austrian) investments in Russian after the foundation of the League of Three Emperors in 1872, including a slight modernization of the Russian military by german advisors with the creation of an actual General staff based on the prussian model alongside renewals of tactics, consecutive to Russo-Turkish War, Boxer Rebellion and Russo-Japanese War.
By the way, the Russians weren't the only ones plagued by Befehlstaktik. The french and british militaries in WWI suffered from this archaism at the beginning of the war. The idea of Auftragstaktik (I think the word in english is mission command) in which the subordinate gets a clearly defined goal, the forces needed to accomplish that goal and a time frame within which the goal must be reached, could perhaps be learnt from the Germans or discovered.
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You run into several problems with that.
While a "military culture" could do much to improve the Russian Army, the vastness of the land and "small village nature" of the conscripts is a big obstacle.
Than there is the industrial side. The Russians seldom lacked in morale and willingness to lose man, but material was an other matter. The industrial muscle was not there. And if the muscles lacked, the arteries (Railroads) were few and far between.
So where do you get the money?
And more importantly, if you use German Trainers, that implies some sort of positive relations between the Countries. So a Franco-Russian Alliance is harder to acomplish.
Also the British would see the better Russian Millitary, be it only Army with or without the Navy, as a "Existential Threat" to India...
While a "military culture" could do much to improve the Russian Army, the vastness of the land and "small village nature" of the conscripts is a big obstacle.
Than there is the industrial side. The Russians seldom lacked in morale and willingness to lose man, but material was an other matter. The industrial muscle was not there. And if the muscles lacked, the arteries (Railroads) were few and far between.
So where do you get the money?
And more importantly, if you use German Trainers, that implies some sort of positive relations between the Countries. So a Franco-Russian Alliance is harder to acomplish.
Also the British would see the better Russian Millitary, be it only Army with or without the Navy, as a "Existential Threat" to India...
Neirdak
Banned
How would you try to solve those problems?
I thought that Grand Duke Konstantin Nikolayevich of Russia, N.N Obruchev and D.A Miliutin would be enough to reform the military, especially if I modified the Memorandum of January 1873 named "Considerations on Defense of Russia" as a massive construction of military railways and roads was planned in this memorandum, but never implemented.
My idea was also to make military service compulsory for all 20-year-old males (рекрутская повинность) with a few exceptions. Of course, voluntary recruitment would be different and similar to the enlisted and professional soldiers below.
Males would serve three years in active army and seventeen years in reserve (landwehr). After the three years, males who wish can become enlisted soldiers and continue to serve in active for seven years with a salary and later stay ten years in reserve (landwehr). They can continue to serve after their ten years in reserve and become "professional soldiers for life" with an higher salary, if they wish.
The system of military education would also be reformed, with lower secondary education made available to all the draftees in military schools during their three-years term and tertiary education made available to valuable enlisted and professional soldiers during their terms. Then, you would have "draftees" (three years and seventeen years in reserve), enlisted soldiers (ten years and ten years in reserve) and professional soldiers for life.
"Draftees" could climb the ladder up to NCO's, while enlisted ones can enter into the first parts of Officer corps and get social advantages at the attainment of a specific officer's rank, as an incentive. They can also get a low noble title, if they move high enough. Professional soldiers can move higher.
I will have to read Strategy and Power in Russia 1600-1914 by William C. Fuller again. On which model and by which advisors was Russian military reformed in OTL?
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The problem is simple - the soulution impossible
better Russian (Army) military -> better industry -> more powerful russia -> Russia bigger threat to British than the Germans -> changed alliances
better Russian (Army) military -> better industry -> more powerful russia -> Russia bigger threat to British than the Germans -> changed alliances
And, of course, the German calculus changes too.
WW1 was also, to a large extent, considered okay for Germany. If Russia has its vast army, but now in a good shape, no sane German is ever going to be okay with fighting Russia (let alone Russia and France together!). Too much gets butterflied, IMO, to even consider a WW1 with 'historical' sides but only the Russian army changing.
WW1 was also, to a large extent, considered okay for Germany. If Russia has its vast army, but now in a good shape, no sane German is ever going to be okay with fighting Russia (let alone Russia and France together!). Too much gets butterflied, IMO, to even consider a WW1 with 'historical' sides but only the Russian army changing.
They would definitely be more cautious about backing Austria if that entailed fighting both France and a modernized Russia, perhaps even to the point of staying neutral, in which case the war will be confined to Austria, Serbia, Montenegro, and Russia initially. Germany might aid Austria by sending material and/or "volunteers", extending credit, and covertly allowing Austrian troops to transit German territory, but that would be as far as they would go.
If Germany does honor the alliance she might well fall back on the Waldersee plan: stay on the defensive in the West and attack in the East. If they forego attacking Belgium, then British entry will be delayed or perhaps even prevented entirely. No Britain means no unrestricted submarine warfare, which means no US entry.
You might still have a WW I, but it's going to look a lot different than OTL.
LordKalvert
Banned
Very simple-
1. Reduce the size of the standing army by going to a two year enlistment. Move the troops into the interior of the country to allow for a territorial form of recruitment speeding up mobilization
2. Reduce the fortresses to a bare minimum planning to retreat in non vital sectors (Turkish border, Far East)
3. Build up the army and make it supreme before going on a naval buildup after the Japanese War
4. Take the money saved and use it to buy equipment for the field army particularly the heavy artillery, machine guns and ammunition stocks that Russia lacked
5. Construct more vital railroads securing the Western borders
This is basically Sukhomlinov's plan except for 1 (he only reduced it to three years for the infantry, four for gunners) and 3 (they went ahead and began rebuilding it in 1910. When the war came, the ships weren't finished and the army ran out of ammo. So take the five hundred million rubles and buy some shells)
Basically, it would give you the same level of German equipment and a 3,000 shell per gun reserve. It makes the army roughly equivalent (everyone can argue tactics till your blue in the face falling back on "they're incompetent" but there's no real evidence that anyone was grossly incompetent outside of Joffre, Conrad and Zhilinsky) but larger.
Its what would have happened if the great programme had been completed and it scares the hell out of the Austro-Germans
Such a force would arrive on the Austro-German border about three days behind the Germans, force the Germans to split their army and allow the Russians to destroy Austria before dealing with Germany at its leisure
You could achieve the same thing by avoiding the Japanese war or winning it quickly
1. Reduce the size of the standing army by going to a two year enlistment. Move the troops into the interior of the country to allow for a territorial form of recruitment speeding up mobilization
2. Reduce the fortresses to a bare minimum planning to retreat in non vital sectors (Turkish border, Far East)
3. Build up the army and make it supreme before going on a naval buildup after the Japanese War
4. Take the money saved and use it to buy equipment for the field army particularly the heavy artillery, machine guns and ammunition stocks that Russia lacked
5. Construct more vital railroads securing the Western borders
This is basically Sukhomlinov's plan except for 1 (he only reduced it to three years for the infantry, four for gunners) and 3 (they went ahead and began rebuilding it in 1910. When the war came, the ships weren't finished and the army ran out of ammo. So take the five hundred million rubles and buy some shells)
Basically, it would give you the same level of German equipment and a 3,000 shell per gun reserve. It makes the army roughly equivalent (everyone can argue tactics till your blue in the face falling back on "they're incompetent" but there's no real evidence that anyone was grossly incompetent outside of Joffre, Conrad and Zhilinsky) but larger.
Its what would have happened if the great programme had been completed and it scares the hell out of the Austro-Germans
Such a force would arrive on the Austro-German border about three days behind the Germans, force the Germans to split their army and allow the Russians to destroy Austria before dealing with Germany at its leisure
You could achieve the same thing by avoiding the Japanese war or winning it quickly
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