Lets say Archduke Ferdinand's driver doesn't get lost and he makes it first to the hospital and then out of the country just fine. By this time the nations of Europe were at boiling point and a war was almost inevitable, how long would this development keep the peace?
How long would a surviving Archduke Ferdinand delay WWI
- Thread starter Mister Abbadon
- Start date
In 1914, Franz Ferdinand didn't want war. Conrad and Berchtold were his men, so, there will be no Austro-Hungarian war party.
Without the certainty of A-H involvement, the Germans will not move either.
By late 1914/early 1915, Moltke will be forced to scrap the so-called Schlieffen-Plan; Belgian armed forces expansion and Russian armaments programmes will require him to come up with something new, because Schlieffen's idea of fighting a two-front war by breaking it up into two one-front wars fought in sequence is no longer feasible.
After the delivery of the two British built dreadnoughts to the Ottoman Empire, the Russian window of opportunity for provoking a general European war for getting control of the Bosporus Straits will close as well.
This said, the probability of war will decrease until at least 1917, if not 1918. By then, FF will be emperor - and may have changed his mind, as the Serbian provocation will not have gone away, and a jolly war may be considered ideal to distract from domestic strife (which was neigh inevitable with FF).
The German and Russian armament programmes will have advanced considerably (including the HSF).
So, perhaps summer of 1918 - or 1919 - would be a good time for an alternative Great War.
Without the certainty of A-H involvement, the Germans will not move either.
By late 1914/early 1915, Moltke will be forced to scrap the so-called Schlieffen-Plan; Belgian armed forces expansion and Russian armaments programmes will require him to come up with something new, because Schlieffen's idea of fighting a two-front war by breaking it up into two one-front wars fought in sequence is no longer feasible.
After the delivery of the two British built dreadnoughts to the Ottoman Empire, the Russian window of opportunity for provoking a general European war for getting control of the Bosporus Straits will close as well.
This said, the probability of war will decrease until at least 1917, if not 1918. By then, FF will be emperor - and may have changed his mind, as the Serbian provocation will not have gone away, and a jolly war may be considered ideal to distract from domestic strife (which was neigh inevitable with FF).
The German and Russian armament programmes will have advanced considerably (including the HSF).
So, perhaps summer of 1918 - or 1919 - would be a good time for an alternative Great War.
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Once you get up to 1917, the power of the Social Democrats will have grown even further in Germany, and they're likely to be more interested in internal reform than international war.
By the same token, the German military was aware that their window to be able to defeat both Russia and France was closing, and they're unlikely to want to start a war they don't believe they can win.
That probably means that war is off the table until military technology increases to the point where . It might not happen even then. The development of the various Great Powers' internal politics, with the broad rise of a left that hasn't been suppressed with the excuse of wartime neccessity.
By the same token, the German military was aware that their window to be able to defeat both Russia and France was closing, and they're unlikely to want to start a war they don't believe they can win.
That probably means that war is off the table until military technology increases to the point where . It might not happen even then. The development of the various Great Powers' internal politics, with the broad rise of a left that hasn't been suppressed with the excuse of wartime neccessity.
Consequence for U.K.
WWI delayed by even 6 months has a profound effect on the U.K.
The Irish Home Rule Bill, and the Scottish Home Rule Bill, get implemented, leading to what is effectively a federal U.K. before the war starts.
This takes a good deal of the strength out of the sepratists.
When(If) the war starts then the Easter rising gets either butterflied, or reduced to 2 men and a dog. Carson and the UVF are still a problem, but a different problem than OTL.
Longer term? Do Ireland and/or Scotland evolve into full independance?
Perhaps, perhaps not. Hopefully without some of the unpleasantness in OTL.
WWI delayed by even 6 months has a profound effect on the U.K.
The Irish Home Rule Bill, and the Scottish Home Rule Bill, get implemented, leading to what is effectively a federal U.K. before the war starts.
This takes a good deal of the strength out of the sepratists.
When(If) the war starts then the Easter rising gets either butterflied, or reduced to 2 men and a dog. Carson and the UVF are still a problem, but a different problem than OTL.
Longer term? Do Ireland and/or Scotland evolve into full independance?
Perhaps, perhaps not. Hopefully without some of the unpleasantness in OTL.
One should also be aware that the Austro-Hungarian army was just starting to replace all their old field artillery in 1914. For the initial battles, more than half of the field artillery they used was from 1875 (modernised 1896, but still without recoil syustem) which much lower range and slower rate of fire than that of their enemies.
By 1915, it will be replaced by top-modern Skoda artillery (100m M14, 80m M5).
The Austro-Hungarian army will be a very different beast after 1915 than it was 1914.
By 1915, it will be replaced by top-modern Skoda artillery (100m M14, 80m M5).
The Austro-Hungarian army will be a very different beast after 1915 than it was 1914.
With Franz Ferdinand as Emperor you may get some interesting butterflies. He wanted to Federalize the Dual Monarchy while still retaining Hapsburg control of the whole nation, merely giving ethnic minorities a tad more say. The problem I course is that Serbia will find anything but Slavic independence unacceptable so will still be making it's main export to A-H terrorism. FF will have to do something about this, and that will cause problems either way.
Russia of course will have completed a military build up (which will do them absolutely no good whatsoever) which will put the militarists in Germany on edge. They however, will be facing down the Reichstag at home, but if they have the Kaiser's ear this could just cause more problems. Either something will spook them into war anyways or the Kaiser may change his mind about war, who knows with Willy?
The UK growing into a more federal entity is a fascinating butterfly that will probably have a profound effect on the Empire as a whole down the line.
Honestly without the assassination of FF we still most likely get a war, but over what, is the question.
Russia of course will have completed a military build up (which will do them absolutely no good whatsoever) which will put the militarists in Germany on edge. They however, will be facing down the Reichstag at home, but if they have the Kaiser's ear this could just cause more problems. Either something will spook them into war anyways or the Kaiser may change his mind about war, who knows with Willy?
The UK growing into a more federal entity is a fascinating butterfly that will probably have a profound effect on the Empire as a whole down the line.
Honestly without the assassination of FF we still most likely get a war, but over what, is the question.
There's a risk of war in 1914 over Albania -- between Italy and Austria-Hungary -- just as much as there is over Serbia, so it's not inconcievable that the delay is minute, and Franz Ferdinand disliked the Italians more than the Serbs, by what I've read, and might have been willing to consider supporting a short war not for territory, but to remind Italy of its "place."
As has been said before, the Germans are shifting politically; the Russians are trying to find a chance to seize the Bosporous (though they don't expect to really be able to do so until 1919); the British are coming apart at the seams over Ireland and the prospect of a genuine refusal by British Army officers to follow commands; the Greeks are building up their fleet for a Third Balkan War (and allegedly were planning on attacking the Ottoman dreadnoughts during the Aegean transit); the Bosnian Serbs are still agitating, and receiving varying levels of Serbian government support; Bulgaria is looking forward to another go-round with everyone who humbled them; Romania is considering what it can carve out; and let's not forget that Japan is trying to court Germany and/or Russia as a number of Japanese politicians are becoming less satisfied with British alliance.
I'd say that the best case buys you until 1920 at the latest unless there's a major change in the international order (a revolution in one of the Great Powers or a major realignment of the alliance system).
Sadly, Europe is due for a war and barring a miracle I don't think it'll find its way to peace except by the skin of its teeth and some ridiculous luck... rather like how the United States and the Soviet Union managed to avoid nuclear holocaust, really.
As has been said before, the Germans are shifting politically; the Russians are trying to find a chance to seize the Bosporous (though they don't expect to really be able to do so until 1919); the British are coming apart at the seams over Ireland and the prospect of a genuine refusal by British Army officers to follow commands; the Greeks are building up their fleet for a Third Balkan War (and allegedly were planning on attacking the Ottoman dreadnoughts during the Aegean transit); the Bosnian Serbs are still agitating, and receiving varying levels of Serbian government support; Bulgaria is looking forward to another go-round with everyone who humbled them; Romania is considering what it can carve out; and let's not forget that Japan is trying to court Germany and/or Russia as a number of Japanese politicians are becoming less satisfied with British alliance.
I'd say that the best case buys you until 1920 at the latest unless there's a major change in the international order (a revolution in one of the Great Powers or a major realignment of the alliance system).
Sadly, Europe is due for a war and barring a miracle I don't think it'll find its way to peace except by the skin of its teeth and some ridiculous luck... rather like how the United States and the Soviet Union managed to avoid nuclear holocaust, really.
Anywhere between a few months and 3 years.
The Greco-Turkish conflict seemed poised to break out into violence by late 1914, and depending on how the situation develops it could draw the greater powers in just as easily.
The latest point, I think, is the Ausgleich renegotiations in 1917. Franz Joseph dying on schedule will make Franz Ferdinand the new Kaiser shortly before the start of the negotiations...leading to considerable (and probably justified) paranoia among much of the Hungarian political elites. The conditions of the Serbs in Bosnia and Vojvodina/Southern Hungary are unlikely to change in Franz Joseph's term, which means that by 1917 they will be just as pissed off as they were in 1914 (in fact, it will be a miracle if no Vienna officials end up assassinated by Young Bosnia or an equivalent organization). Romanians will also be getting increasingly restless.
All in all, there is a distinct possibility of a civil war/free-for-all exploding in Austria-Hungary immediately before or during Franz Ferdinand's handling of the Ausgleich...the only question is whether Germany will try to prop up the Vienna regime against the various secessionists and their allies - in which case a continent-spanning war is still possible - or become too wary of Russia's increased military strength and make it a goal to incorporate Austria, Slovenia and Czechia into the German Empire.
Saphroneth
Banned
Wars are almost inevitable; an all-over-Europe war might not be, though.
Arguably, if the tank is invented before any ATL Great War, it'll never really bog down as much as OTL since there'll be the methods to break through trench lines, and as such will be a shorter, sharper war. (Less of the horrible grind.)
Absolutely. What you might see instead is a series of small wars a la the Balkan Wars or the Italo-Turkish War that serve as pressure releases of a sort, slowly but surely ratcheting down the massive pressure instead of letting it explode, with the Great Powers not quite finding the excuse for EVERYONE to pile on that they did OTL.
In the end, the dead won't much care if it was a single massive war or one of a dozen small wars that they died in, though.
On the other hand, would the tank be invented as quickly without the particulars of a trench war to encourage it along?
Austria Hungary refused a tank building programming in 1911. The invention was already there just not in the army.
I agree with the posters who see more localized (Greco-Turkish, Italo-Albanian, etc) wars rather than the grand disaster of the Great War. If the Russians attack the Ottomans to get the Bosphorus will France go to war with Germany if Germany weighs in on the side of the Ottomans against Russia? I sincerely doubt that absent a German attack through Belgium in that scenario Britain would go against Germany to support France & a Russian attack to get the Bosphorus - something the UK would definitely NOT want.
While there were alliances, resentments, and more floating around Europe in 1914 the conditions that started WWI were fairly unique and if FF is not assassinated, or even the attempt made (as in this POD), its highly unlikely you'll see a war of the same magnitude with the same lineup.
Absent this "big war" aviation, naval aviation (carriers), armor will all be delayed. The butterflies from no WWI are so huge that any attempt to consider what might be happening by the 1930s is useless. FWIW absent WWI, the Allied debts to the USA, the inflation in Weimar Germany & reparations etc the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression may very well not occur.
One thing I don't see changing because of no WWI is the clash of interests between the USA and Japan in the Pacific/China. Details of any clash in a military way will change because Japan will not have the former German Pacific islands north of the equator. I say this because no matter what happens or does not happen in Europe, the USA and Japan have very different interests in the Pacific/China - tensions for sure, war...maybe but not OTL's WWII/Pacific War.
While there were alliances, resentments, and more floating around Europe in 1914 the conditions that started WWI were fairly unique and if FF is not assassinated, or even the attempt made (as in this POD), its highly unlikely you'll see a war of the same magnitude with the same lineup.
Absent this "big war" aviation, naval aviation (carriers), armor will all be delayed. The butterflies from no WWI are so huge that any attempt to consider what might be happening by the 1930s is useless. FWIW absent WWI, the Allied debts to the USA, the inflation in Weimar Germany & reparations etc the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression may very well not occur.
One thing I don't see changing because of no WWI is the clash of interests between the USA and Japan in the Pacific/China. Details of any clash in a military way will change because Japan will not have the former German Pacific islands north of the equator. I say this because no matter what happens or does not happen in Europe, the USA and Japan have very different interests in the Pacific/China - tensions for sure, war...maybe but not OTL's WWII/Pacific War.
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Russia ... will have completed a military build up (which will do them absolutely no good whatsoever) ....
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Russia's only salvation would have been thousands more kilometres of railroads. More rails would allow Tsarist Armies to mobilize quick enough to stall the German invasion near the border.
Railways take many years to build. Russia's best hope of stalling a German invasion involves delaying (by several years) that invasion until Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, etc. can lay thousands more kilometres of rails. Then well-fed Russian soldiers dig in and wait for General Winter to finish off the German invaders.
Russia ... will have completed a military build up (which will do them absolutely no good whatsoever) ....
..............................................................
Russia's only salvation would have been thousands more kilometres of railroads. More rails would allow Tsarist Armies to mobilize quick enough to stall the German invasion near the border.
Railways take many years to build. Russia's best hope of stalling a German invasion involves delaying (by several years) that invasion until Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, etc. can lay thousands more kilometres of rails. Then well-fed Russian soldiers dig in and wait for General Winter to finish off the German invaders.
I believe he pushed for his reappointment because he was a strong pusher for military reform.
Serbia delenda est is all I can imagine as per the weekly statement.
Saphroneth
Banned
I actually think there'd be a major change in how the world views things, though. First off, the series of wars might if anything involve less deaths - they'd certainly involve less wholesale psychological trauma. And second, it's less likely the Spanish Flu would be able to spread so fast, with fewer returning soldiers.
tank and aircraft development might even be more advanced.
just think about it, in this case we have:
-austria-hungary still around investing in its army
-germany arming up free from any arms restrictions... like the otl tank/aircraft ban
-russia not broken
-france and great britain not slowing down on military developement
just think about it, in this case we have:
-austria-hungary still around investing in its army
-germany arming up free from any arms restrictions... like the otl tank/aircraft ban
-russia not broken
-france and great britain not slowing down on military developement
Aircraft development, I absolutely agree; I'm just not sure tanks wouldn't lag slightly, since the realization of the need for a tank to crush through trench lines might not be obvious, leading to some other possibilities in tank design and a lot more time spent exploring options. More armored cars, for instance.
Half-tracks maybe? Seems like a logical follow through from armored cars if you need to increase mobility.
In general I'd expect a greater emphasis on firepower. Even the French might learn that lesson. IOTL the government forced through an order for heavy artillery that, IIRC, hadn't been delivered by 1914. I also remember something about the German Army requesting funding equip an experimental motorized battalion. So that might be expanded in subsequent years. I've also read in a few places that Germany was stockpiling guns and armor for a "sprint" in dreadnought construction to catch the RN. I don't know if it'd work or even if it's true but soothing to consider. On the subject of ships I've heard there were some proposals flying around the Admiralty to vastly increase cruiser and submarine construction at the expense of battleships. Mind you, I'd also expect Britain to lay down some 18-inch battleships within 3-5 years of 1914.
Without WW1 war between Greece and Turkey in the summer of 1914 is all but guaranteed. That may or may not suck int he Great Powers but its likely to turn into yet another Balkan War.