Luftwaffe heavy bombers in 1940

Hello folks. This is my first "what if". Hope no one posted this before...

As we all know the pre-war Luftwaffe pretty much dumped all thoughts of strategic bombing, focusing on tactical support, the biggest payloads not surpassing 2 tons (He-111). This meant that, during the battle of Britain, the german bombers did relatively poor damage, compared to what-ifs. The switch from bombing airfields to cities meant the bombers were not given enough time to do the job.

But... what if the Luftwaffe had proper bombers, with heavier payloads?

The drive to build a strategic arm came from General Walther Wever. He started the "Ural Bomber" program, resulting in at least 2 prototypes, the Do 19 and the Ju 89 who, despite shorcomings, showed promise. But then Wever died in 1936 and his sucessor, Kesselring, an army officer through and through, advised Goring to cancel the program, focusing in tactical support, and the rest is history.

But imagine this: Wever doesn't die, or Kesselring continues the program, and the Luftwaffe starts the war with severall groups of heavy bombers with around 3.5-4 tons payload (the twin-engined Wellington carried 2tons, Hallifax over 5) and proper defences (unlike RAF bombers, even these prototypes had multiple cannon). This allows them do to a lot more damage per raid than the combination of He-111/Ju-88, wrecking the RAF's infrastructure before they are shifted to the cities: airfields, radars, comunications, etc.

A cascade of possible consequences follows
- wrecked RAF looses air superiority over the UK;
- Luftwaffe spreads out, does more damage; germans gain confidence in victory;
- Hitler, assuming (now correctly) air superiority is won, with assurances from Goering that he can protect the invasion force, believes all is good for Sea Lion and orders the invasion, despite warnings from the army about supplies and troop sizes, and from the navy about dificulties in escorts, proper transports, etc;
- the RN, at great cost, wrecks most of the invasion fleet, with the beach defenders dealing with the few that land;
- the large losses in men and equipment force Hitler to review his strategy for 1941, ie, the USSR.

What now? Would the war stalemate? Would the Luftwaffe be forced to ramp up the strategic arm even further, to try to do to the UK what the allies tried to do to germany in 1943/1994? Would the RAF recover fast enough?

And other, possible strategic outcomes: would Stalin be tempted to attack this now weakened Germany? Would Mussolini be left to hang in the Med, due to Germany's lack of deployable troops?

So what do the Luftwaffe lose in exchange for an aircraft that's going to be of (in their view) limited use? Also, the British won't lose the BoB, heavy bombers are slower than medium bombers most of the time, and the Germans were limited by the range of their (escort) fighters, not their bombers. Oh, and as everyone else found out, it doesn't matter how many damned guns of whatever calibre a bomber mounts, in a 1-on-1, the fighter still had the advantage, plus more guns mean a reduced bomb load and slower after-drop speed compared to lesser armed bombers, plus less safety margin if they lose an engine.

Both aircraft had a bomb load of less than two tons and would have suffered the same issues of lack of escort. The main German oroblem in 1940 was the lack of a competent longer range escort.

MattII said:

So what do the Luftwaffe lose in exchange for an aircraft that's going to be of (in their view) limited use? Also, the British won't lose the BoB, heavy bombers are slower than medium bombers most of the time, and the Germans were limited by the range of their (escort) fighters, not their bombers. Oh, and as everyone else found out, it doesn't matter how many damned guns of whatever calibre a bomber mounts, in a 1-on-1, the fighter still had the advantage, plus more guns mean a reduced bomb load and slower after-drop speed compared to lesser armed bombers, plus less safety margin if they lose an engine.

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johnboy said:

Both aircraft had a bomb load of less than two tons and would have suffered the same issues of lack of escort. The main German oroblem in 1940 was the lack of a competent longer range escort.

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The heavy bombers would replace the He-111 and at least some of the Ju-88. As for the bomber vs fighter issue, remember that, in BoB, many bombers got through the RAF, using nothing but MGs for defence. The RAF fighters used only light-caliber MGs, which caused problems even against the smaller Ju-88/He-111. Against the heavier bombers, they'd run into some of the same problems the Luftwaffe ran into vs the B-17/24: causing enough damage to shootdown. Only these heavies would carry cannons for defense. In the case of the Fw-200 or the japanese large flying boats, even single 20mm cannon caused problems. In August 1940, over the UK, all this would mean fragile fighters with MGs vs tough bombers with cannon.

As for the payload/speed issues: remember those were 1936 prototypes. By 1940 they'd be considerably better. As for the lack of an escort: the bombers would be attacking the RAF infrastructure in the south of England. The Me-109 could get there... not for long, but it could.

But even if the RAF still managed to down the same number of bombers, in the end, with this scenario, considering the new payloads, you'd still get a lot more damage done.

I
smell
Sea Lion

To get heavy bombers you need more engines. Your industrial base is limited so you need to cut something else.

If you remove some Ju88 and other planes then... you may not win in 40 (heavy bombers are useless for front line support and they won at Sedan ONLY because of this support).

Other problem: they were not able to field a proper heavy bomber (a promising one is not a working one).

Ler's say that they produce many heavy bombers so they move from tactical supports... So they get stuck in front on the Meuse and can use those bombers to hammer Paris... but they still get stuck and people discover that day bombing is not done even those days so they have to switch to nigh mode after heavy losses.

cracou said:

Ler's say that they produce many heavy bombers so they move from tactical supports... So they get stuck in front on the Meuse and can use those bombers to hammer Paris... but they still get stuck and people discover that day bombing is not done even those days so they have to switch to nigh mode after heavy losses.

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Don't forget the Stuka. And I didn't say "move from tactical supports", simply build a few groups of heavies, to replace the He-111 and most of the Ju-88, that did most of the daylight bombing from Warsaw to London.

Several issues:
1) These aircraft will not be particularly useful in France, so their development may well result in Germany being unable to even get into the same position.
2) Those other bombers got through by being fast and manoeuvrable, the heavies won't have that same advantage.
3) The Reason so many bombers got through OTL is that 12 Group used Big Wing tactics, ineffective against fast medium bombers, but likely to be more useful against slower heavy bombers.

Hammerbolt said:

The heavy bombers would replace the He-111 and at least some of the Ju-88. As for the bomber vs fighter issue, remember that, in BoB, many bombers got through the RAF, using nothing but MGs for defence. The RAF fighters used only light-caliber MGs, which caused problems even against the smaller Ju-88/He-111. Against the heavier bombers, they'd run into some of the same problems the Luftwaffe ran into vs the B-17/24: causing enough damage to shootdown. Only these heavies would carry cannons for defense. In the case of the Fw-200 or the japanese large flying boats, even single 20mm cannon caused problems. In August 1940, over the UK, all this would mean fragile fighters with MGs vs tough bombers with cannon.

As for the payload/speed issues: remember those were 1936 prototypes. By 1940 they'd be considerably better. As for the lack of an escort: the bombers would be attacking the RAF infrastructure in the south of England. The Me-109 could get there... not for long, but it could.

But even if the RAF still managed to down the same number of bombers, in the end, with this scenario, considering the new payloads, you'd still get a lot more damage done.

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I've never really been convinced the heavy bombers usefulness during the BoB, certainly during the attacks on the airfields. Yes, with a similar number of heavy bombers there would have been a greater tonnage of explosives dropped, but the medium bombers gave better accuracy meaning a greater tonnage actually delivered on target. The most succesful attacks were delivered by a mixture of low, medium and high level raids, something that couldn't be achieved by heavies. The Ju88 could deliver 3 tonnes of bombs the over the short distances involved and in one low level attack at Brize Norton involving just two aircraft managed to destroy 47 aircraft including 11 Hurricanes undergoing repairs by pinpointing the hangers at the airfield. Heavies would not have been able to do this.

cracou said:

To get heavy bombers you need more engines. Your industrial base is limited so you need to cut something else.

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Fuel may be a problem as well...

eltf177 said:

Fuel may be a problem as well...

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In May/August 1940? With the full oil production capacity still intact?

One could of course eliminate the Do-17. Of course it is true that there are going to be problems -fuel, more engines etc. But the payoff will be there. It was Germany that pioneer the first strategic bombing attacks in World War I. To make this work Germany will need to better develop its synthetic oil industry . It would also have to develop better engines and drop tanks for its fighters.

You obvioulsy don't take into account any logistical parameter.

Don't forget the Stuka. And I didn't say "move from tactical supports", simply build a few groups of heavies, to replace the He-111 and most of the Ju-88, that did most of the daylight bombing from Warsaw to London.

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simply????? It's a major effort shift If you "simply" build some groups then you don't have enough of them. If you produce many of them then you remove mid or heavy bombers, it's just a fact.

As for oil... Come on. In 40 they just don't have production in Germany (well some but really limited one). Synthetic plants are not here yet. Oil comes from Rumania and CCCP. They supply was limited and their reserves painfully low, it's a well known fact.

Moreover you need to develop your training and use more oil to train those people...

To make this work Germany will need to better develop its synthetic oil industry . It would also have to develop better engines and drop tanks for its fighters.

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easier said then done....

The reason the Luftwaffe turned its face against heavy bombers was that you can only get about 3 four engined bombers for the same resources that give you 5 medium bombers.

However you typically get around twice the bombload at a given range and actually there tends to be very little that medium bombers can do that a heavy bomber cannot...save dive...this was a big thing to the Germans given the inaccuracy of bombsights at the time.

So generally a heavy bomber is better than a medium but...as explained above the really big issue for the Germans was the lack of a long range fighter escort that did not need its own escort. The FW200 Condor (a four engined aircraft) did prove a mite tricky to shoot down with rifle calibre machine guns but it could be and was done.

Going with heavy bombers might have given benefits to the Luftwaffe over the course of the war but it would not likely have changed the outcome of the Battle of Britain.

Hope no one posted this before...

What do you mean no one posted this before

Sorry, couldn't help it.
Hi Hammerbolt, do search Wiking threads on LW matters

Hammerbolt said:

Kesselring, an army officer through and through, advised Goring to cancel the program, focusing in tactical support, and the rest is history.

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This was a good decision. Keep the Ju 88 as a fast bomber/heavy fighter, the Hs-123 as a cheap CAS plane, cancel all other level bombers and give the resources to the Wehrmacht. An standardized assault gun / tank armed with a long 50mm gun / 75mm PAK / 105mm howitzer would be really useful in 1940/41.

chris N said:

One could of course eliminate the Do-17. Of course it is true that there are going to be problems -fuel, more engines etc. But the payoff will be there. It was Germany that pioneer the first strategic bombing attacks in World War I. To make this work Germany will need to better develop its synthetic oil industry . It would also have to develop better engines and drop tanks for its fighters.

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Duh, forgot the Do-17. Ofc, dump it too. Wasn't that good anyway...

So: dump the He-111 and the Do-17, leave just part of the Ju-88 production. And, since this started in 1936, I do believe the germans would be able to field multiple groups of one heavy by 1940. Which would them give the Luftwafe a line of of "heavy bomber", Stukas and some Ju-88. I will admit my ignorance of german fuel production by 1940.

One point: why would germany develop extra fuel tanks before 1940? No one else did. Everyone thought that "the bomber would make it" alone. Afterwards, sure, but not before.

If they don't develop drop tanks you're in a bit of a poke, because it doesn't matter how well armed the bombers are, they're going to get shot down. Also, crew training programs couldn't keep up OTL, and here each bomber costs twice as many crew.

Basically you couldn't. The LW tried to get strategic bombing designs, but by 1936 it was clear what was produced was not viable. They dropped those and went with another design that was more advanced from Heinkel, the He177. However due to technical mismanagement of the design it wasn't really ready until 1944. Even if everything went swimmingly with the design it wouldn't be ready for operations before 1942 and wouldn't be in production until 1941. It was a highly complex design even without the dive bombing requirement that was added by a certain obsessive Goering appointee and German industry had not produced anything like it; even getting the Ju88 introduced had all sorts of production issue initially. Germany was better off with what it had IOTL than having a heavy bomber in 1940 given the options available. In fact I would argue they would have been better off just dropping the dive bombing requirement for the Ju88 and producing less of them initially to have more He111s, a proven design, to maximize numbers early on (which they could have considering how much production capacity was wasted waiting on Ju88 redesigns and production issues that took months to sort out vs. the mature He111 design).

wiking said:

Basically you couldn't. The LW tried to get strategic bombing designs, but by 1936 it was clear what was produced was not viable. They dropped those and went with another design that was more advanced from Heinkel, the He177. However due to technical mismanagement of the design it wasn't really ready until 1944.

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Yeah, I didn't go there on purpose. The He177 is a textbook case of mismanagement at all levels. But, as you said, it would have come far too late.

I was creating a scenario based on hardware of the mid 1930's, a german counter to the Wellington and Halifax. Anything latter than that would be a dead issue.