WI: President Bush Jr. was allowed to run for a third term in 2008 vs. Barack Obama

Bush runs for 3rd term in 2008

  • Yes, he could have won

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • No, he would have lost but would have done better McCain

    Votes: 6 6.6%

  • No, it would have been an Obama landslide (Bush does worse than McCain)

    Votes: 85 93.4%
  • Total voters
    91
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Hongfan91

Do you think Bush would have done a better job campaigning compared to McCain and managed to eek out a narrow 270+ EC victory like in 2000? His Vice-President Cheney was a lot stronger than Sarah Palin was but the problem is they had 8 years under their belt and the Bush administration was very unpopular + I would imagine Bush being a lot more aggressive on defence policies against Obama than McCain was.

Would Bush have been able to pull a third term as President or would Obama still have won?
 

NKVD

This is ASB even if you disregard the fact that term limits prevent it. Bush was probably the most reviled president in modern American history when he left office.
 

Seleucus

Just to elucidate on how unpopular John McCain was:

Rasmussen actually polled in summer 2008 to see what would happen if George W. Bush could run for a third term against Obama. He went down in flames 34-54.

After adding in the economic crisis and all that, I'd expect a 25% defeat resemblant of 1932.
 

New Potomac

If Obama was actually able to directly run against Bush it would be disastrous.

Bush can't distance himself from his own administration or even try to run on something besides his record, so now everything is on the table. Obama can directly attack him for his failure in handling Katrina, for letting the economy collapse on his watch, for his administration's lying about WMD's in Iraq, and so much else. You're probably looking at a landslide reminiscent of LBJ or FDR.

Could you even imagine a debate where all Obama has to do is attack Bush for letting the economy crash on his watch? Devastating.
 
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Seleucus

*looks at results

It seems we've finally found a question on which AH.com is completely in agreement! :D

EDIT: Okay, not anymore. Who thought that Bush would do better than McCain? Mind explaining?
 
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Lalli

If Republicans are stupid enough to allow Bush seek third term, it will be full landslide for Obama. Bush had made too much mistakes that him would has any changes. Two wars which not go very well, Katrina, failed economy and failed foreign politics.
 
Georgepatton

Georgepatton

Good God, would Bush even want a third term? If he won, he'd be facing a decent chance of dropping dead in office from the stress alone.
 

Mike Stearns

Richard Harrow said:
This is ASB even if you disregard the fact that term limits prevent it. Bush was probably the most reviled president in modern American history when he left office.
Click to expand...

Seleucus said:
Just to elucidate on how unpopular John McCain was:

Rasmussen actually polled in summer 2008 to see what would happen if George W. Bush could run for a third term against Obama. He went down in flames 34-54.

After adding in the economic crisis and all that, I'd expect a 25% defeat resemblant of 1932.
Click to expand...

New Patomic said:
If Obama was actually able to directly run against Bush it would be disastrous.

Bush can't distance himself from his own administration or even try to run on something besides his record, so now everything is on the table. Obama can directly attack him for his failure in handling Katrina, for letting the economy collapse on his watch, for his administration's lying about WMD's in Iraq, and so much else. You're probably looking at a landslide reminiscent of LBJ or FDR.

Could you even imagine a debate where all Obama has to do is attack Bush for letting the economy crash on his watch? Devastating.
Click to expand...

I am in complete agreement. Bush v Obama in 2008? Incumbent fatigue+Bush's record=absolutely EPIC ass kicking.
 

New Potomac

Lalli said:
If Republicans are stupid enough to allow Bush seek third term, it will be full landslide for Obama. Bush had made too much mistakes that him would has any changes. Two wars which not go very well, Katrina, failed economy and failed foreign politics.
Click to expand...

If he did decide to run in such a scenario he'd probably win the primary, maybe even with minimal opposition. His approval rating among Republican voters was still fine.

kaycmdi4v0uwlmg7mlbl1w.gif


If you're someone say John McCain, why would you want to run against your party's incumbent when the party still likes him? Even if you were to win the primary it would probably be a bruising/damaging affair, and then you'd be expected to face the democrats in an election they were favored in from the start. Most candidates would probably choose to wait for 2012 fully expecting Bush to lose handily in 2008.
 

NKVD

Mike Stearns said:
I am in complete agreement. Bush v Obama in 2008? Incumbent fatigue+Bush's record=absolutely EPIC ass kicking.
Click to expand...

Granted, Bush would do better than Carter, Mondale, and McGovern, even if his opponent is white.

In fact, I don't think it would be a total landslide, at least electorally, compared to the OTL results.
 
Plumber

Plumber

New Patomic said:
If he did decide to run in such a scenario he'd probably win the primary, maybe even with minimal opposition. His approval rating among Republican voters was still fine.
Click to expand...

Interesting. I assume this is because Republicans themselves had been so hollowed out to their ideological core that those who identified as Republican in 2008 were the roots of the Tea Party folks.

Bush would win Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, NE-3, Utah and maybe Alaska, Nebraska, Kansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Against Clinton he probably loses everything but the first group and maybe AK, KA, and NE.
 

Seleucus

Richard Harrow said:
Granted, Bush would do better than Carter, Mondale, and McGovern, even if his opponent is white.

In fact, I don't think it would be a total landslide, at least electorally, compared to the OTL results.
Click to expand...

Summer 2008 polling had Bush losing by 20%. That's his ceiling, given that the financial crash hadn't yet occurred.
 

SLCer

I don't even think Bush would care to run in 2008. He seemed burnt out on everything and was acting a bit goofy the final months of his presidency (dancing prior to meeting McCain for his endorsement, his trip to Beijing during the Olympics were he looked, at times, drunk) - but if, by some miracle, he did run, and won the GOP primary, I think he'd do worse than McCain ... but because of how polarizing the electorate is becoming between right/left, I doubt it'd get into historic levels.

So, maybe...

genusmap.php


...winning Arizona (no McCain on the ticket), Georgia (a stretch, but...), Montana and Missouri.
 
BBadolato

BBadolato

If he's allowed to is one thing, would he want to is another. I'd say he wouldn't considering just how stressful 8 years was on him. Hell I'm still suprised FDR went for 16 considering the stresses of the time.
 

New Potomac

Plumber said:
Interesting. I assume this is because Republicans themselves had been so hollowed out to their ideological core that those who identified as Republican in 2008 were the roots of the Tea Party folks.
Click to expand...

I think a large part is that Republican voters are just naturally inclined to support a Republican president almost no matter what.

A big question in my mind is how much the economic crisis hurts Bush's chances. He can be attacked for letting the economy crash on his watch, for not responding before it was too late, for being unwilling to sign a large stimulus, and especially for deciding to bailout the banks with over $700 billion dollars worth of the taxpayers money. The economy proved pretty damaging to McCain and he wasn't even apart of the administration.
 

LendleAlba

Imagine if Watergate came out in September 1972 and you have a rough idea of what it would be like for Bush to run against Obama in 2008, except with the added bonus of The Islamic Shock not being down 20 points beforehand.
 

usertron2020

Donor
New Patomic said:
If he did decide to run in such a scenario he'd probably win the primary, maybe even with minimal opposition. His approval rating among Republican voters was still fine.

kaycmdi4v0uwlmg7mlbl1w.gif
Click to expand...

The inevitable result of Rovian feed-the-base strategy. Not only electorally, but in terms of governance. The man just never stopped running for office, 24-7-52-6. 6, not 8, because after the 2006 election, Bush II couldn't think of what to do, with no more votes to be won and no chosen successor.

Plumber said:
Interesting. I assume this is because Republicans themselves had been so hollowed out to their ideological core that those who identified as Republican in 2008 were the roots of the Tea Party folks.

Bush would win Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, NE-3, Utah and maybe Alaska, Nebraska, Kansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Against Clinton he probably loses everything but the first group and maybe AK, KA, and NE.
Click to expand...

Are WV, TN, Kentucky and Alaska really so far to the right today?

BBadolato said:
If he's allowed to is one thing, would he want to is another. I'd say he wouldn't considering just how stressful 8 years was on him. Hell I'm still suprised FDR went for 16 considering the stresses of the time.
Click to expand...

There's Laura to consider too.

New Patomic said:
I think a large part is that Republican voters are just naturally inclined to support a Republican president almost no matter what.
Click to expand...

1996's The Simpsons-Treehouse of Horror episode had their regular Space Aliens Kang & Kodos take Clinton's and Dole's places in the election. When they were exposed, and somebody said: "Well, I guess we'll all have to vote for a third party candidate", Kang replied: "GO AHEAD! WASTE YOUR VOTE! HA-HA-HA! HA-HA-HA!"

The results, of course? "ALL HAIL PRESIDENT KANG!":eek:

Homer Simpson sez: "Don't blame me! I voted for Kodos!":rolleyes:
 
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jmc247

You would have to give Bush a reason to run for a third term and want to win as come 2008 he had been through the biggest terrorist attack in U.S. history and a Global War on Terror sapping his emotional energy, then comes his party stabbing him in the back in his second term, then comes having to completely change his war strategy against the will of the U.S. public, then a U.S. city that sunk, then the biggest financial crisis since 1929.

Bush's second term where he made far better decisions then his first was still a nightmare because of events some in Bush's control, but many out of it.

The question is... why?
 

MalcontentRex

Banned
Bush (Dubya that is) could have run against Charles Manson or the Pillowcase Rapist in 2008, and lost. Yes he was THAT unpopular, even among Republicans.
 
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