Their are now 15 countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, including Russia. My question is, what is the maximum number of countries the Soviet Union could have broken into fallowing the end of the Cold War?
42 (Filler)
Chechnya's got the most potential for successful secession: it has the demographic composition (majority non-Russian), it has Russia's oil-refining capacity making it economically viable, it's on the periphery of Russia, and it has a history of existence outside Russia. The problem is getting it international recognition. None of the other regions in Russia have all these going for it: while Tatarstan and Bashkortostan made bids for independence, the fact that they were completely surrounded by Russia made them unlikely to be able to function without Russia's help.
Of course, OTL Gagauzia, Transnistria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh were all (at least briefly) de facto independent. They could be recognised properly, that would boost the number of post-Soviet nations.
Nakhchivan wasn't too far from being de facto independent, they could go if differences between Aliyev and Mütallibov remain and Aliyev maintains his stranglehold over Nakhchivan.
Adjara was in a state of 'armed autonomy'; if Georgia had tried to end Adjara's autonomy during the civil war the Russians might have intervened, and they could have followed Abkhazia and South Ossetia out.
Perhaps Talysh-Mugan could go indpendent from Azerbaijan. OTL they only tried for autonomy, but assuming a longer, more violent Armenian-Azeri War, they could possibly have a chance. But this is a long shot.
Realistically? Most likely the OTL ones plus Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and maybe (but not likely AT ALL) Tuva. There is also a small possibility that you could get the various bits of Ossetia split out of their current arrangements and united as an independent state. Even Tuva and Ossetia are pretty out there, though. None of these are very likely, even the big three...
Id argue that Tuva is one fo the few that both could realistically do so and would.
Tuva is one of the few Federal Subjects of Russia in which the native peoples form a large majority (64% in 1989, 77% in 2002), it has a land border with another country, it's isolated from the rest of Russia (and thus hard to get to) and actually had the will to do it (the Tyvan constitution is more similar to an independent states than a Federal subject).