WI: The Lower Canada Rebellion ends with a Patriotes Victory

What if the Patriotes won the Lower Canada Rebellion instead of the British? Is it possible for the Patriotes to win? What would have had to take place to allow for a Patriote victory and what would a Canadian Republic look like in 2014?

betamax said:

What if the Patriotes won the Lower Canada Rebellion instead of the British? Is it possible for the Patriotes to win? What would have had to take place to allow for a Patriote victory and what would a Canadian Republic look like in 2014?

Click to expand...

I don't think it's really possible. Britain is a superpower at this time and the Canadiens just don't have the manpower. Moreover, Lower Canada is the gateway to the interior of British North America, so holding onto it is a high priority for Britain.

I think the only real chance French Canada has to become independent between 1763 and 1960 is when the U.S. and Britain are at war, and even then you need a decisive American victory.

betamax said:

What if the Patriotes won the Lower Canada Rebellion instead of the British? Is it possible for the Patriotes to win? What would have had to take place to allow for a Patriote victory and what would a Canadian Republic look like in 2014?

Click to expand...

Remember, they were agitating for responsible government, for more democracy, rather than directly for independence. Although there was some republican sentiment.

Note that the GOT responsible government, as a political result of the failed military action. So in some senses the DID win.

And, as funnyhat pointed out, if Britain had to bring troops over to crush the rebellion, which iirc they didnt even bother to do, theyd have done it.

A temporary Patriote military victory (and how would you pull THAT off), MIGHT make things worse when they are inevitably crushed - if Britain views them as treasonous rather than subjects fighting for British rights...

betamax said:

What if the Patriotes won the Lower Canada Rebellion instead of the British? Is it possible for the Patriotes to win? What would have had to take place to allow for a Patriote victory and what would a Canadian Republic look like in 2014?

Click to expand...

Check out my 1827 Shuffle timeline-There is actually a second revolt after Britain badly mismanages the colony, and this time it succeeds(I should note, btw, that although it's not covered as of yet other than a brief mention, there was indeed a Crimean War as in our world, which probably really helped the Patriots, as Britain could not afford to spare so many troops to hold down the fort, as it were).

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

Remember, they were agitating for responsible government, for more democracy, rather than directly for independence. Although there was some republican sentiment.

Note that the GOT responsible government, as a political result of the failed military action. So in some senses the DID win.

And, as funnyhat pointed out, if Britain had to bring troops over to crush the rebellion, which iirc they didnt even bother to do, theyd have done it.

A temporary Patriote military victory (and how would you pull THAT off), MIGHT make things worse when they are inevitably crushed - if Britain views them as treasonous rather than subjects fighting for British rights...

Click to expand...

And there was - smaller - relative groups in Upper Canada.

I could have seen them both ending wanting a free Canada if the imperial gov. was getting tyranical, but all those points... hard, very hard to win.

Like in so many revolutionary movements, there was

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

Remember, they were agitating for responsible government, for more democracy, rather than directly for independence. Although there was some republican sentiment.

Note that the GOT responsible government, as a political result of the failed military action. So in some senses the DID win.

And, as funnyhat pointed out, if Britain had to bring troops over to crush the rebellion, which iirc they didnt even bother to do, theyd have done it.

A temporary Patriote military victory (and how would you pull THAT off), MIGHT make things worse when they are inevitably crushed - if Britain views them as treasonous rather than subjects fighting for British rights...

Click to expand...

Like in so many revolutionary movements, there was disagreement about the desired end state, especially between the Upper Canada rebellion in 1837, the Lower Canada rebellion in 1837, and the 1838 actions, and between the various stripes of patriotes, chasseurs, hunters, etc. - there were those who wanted something more under the British crown, than the Chateau clique and/or Family Compact (i.e, the seigneurial system), there were those who wanted outright independence, and there were those who were essentially loyal, but thought the military response was overkill, and so helped some of those on the wanted list escape Wetherall et al.

There were also those who were essentially French Canadian nationalists, and those who were Republican "unionists" (in reference to including both upper and lower Canada in an independent state) and almost everything in between - including anticlericalist and antiseigneurial liberals ("les rouges"), all of whom found themselves in alliance at times and at odds at times as well.

It's worth going through the Dictionary of Canadian biography listings - start with Louis-Joseph Papineau (or his father Joseph, for that matter) and William Lyon Mackenzie - and then hit the various links. The overlap with those who took positions on the rebellion losses bill and annexation in 1849, and the burning of Parliament, is very interesting, much less those who were still in public life at the time of Confederation in 1867.

The views of those executed by the British or transported alone represented probably a half-dozen points of view...

Best,

In my opinion, this is not a scenario that can feasibly end in Quebecois independence or even Canadian independence. No matter how large the rebellion gets, it's either going to get the US involved and end up annexed as another US state, or else end by being defeated by a British military expedition. (If a political situation involving more autonomy isn't worked out, which like OTL is by far the most likely scenario) In 1837 all of Canada (including the Maritimes) had a total population of about 1 million people, in comparison with Britain's ~15 million and the US's population of ~13 million. It's likely impossible at this point in time for Canada to gain independence.