Dutch revolt fails

What if the Dutch revolt against Spain were to fail?

Depends entirely on the why and how.

If it's through something like the Union of Arras/Atrecht being agreed on with more provinces(or even all), the net effect is that Spain loses just as much (as it'll make the Netherlands near-useless for Spain), the Dutch gain even more (since they can now freely expand under the Spanish aegis).

If it's through something like a historical Arras followed by serious Spanish victories, followed by minor concessions in the north, they might seriously benefit by exploiting the North - at least initially.

If it's by crushing victories before the rebellion gets anywhere, the net effect is probably less positive, as there may be decades of discontent even after Spain wins.

In all cases, I consider a third 'habsburg realm' in the Netherlands (as Albrecht of Austria and his wife had in the early 1600's) likely in the long run.

avernite said:

Depends entirely on the why and how.

If it's through something like the Union of Arras/Atrecht being agreed on with more provinces(or even all), the net effect is that Spain loses just as much (as it'll make the Netherlands near-useless for Spain), the Dutch gain even more (since they can now freely expand under the Spanish aegis).

If it's through something like a historical Arras followed by serious Spanish victories, followed by minor concessions in the north, they might seriously benefit by exploiting the North - at least initially.

If it's by crushing victories before the rebellion gets anywhere, the net effect is probably less positive, as there may be decades of discontent even after Spain wins.

In all cases, I consider a third 'habsburg realm' in the Netherlands (as Albrecht of Austria and his wife had in the early 1600's) likely in the long run.

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An historical Arras followed by a spanish victory. Will the Netherlands eventually colonise indonesia like in OTL? If not, then who will?

joeyanonymous said:

Will the Netherlands eventually colonise indonesia like in OTL?

Click to expand...

No, You will see an exodus of the Upper and middle class, who will flee the Spanish tyrany. Every protestant who is rich enough will flee the country (unless of course if they are captured by the Spanish and are executed). A lot of Catholics will flee too, as many catholics were unhappy with the Spanish. Besides that the Spanish will not allow the Dutch to colonise anything. The Dutch will probably continue trading across the baltics and since many Dutch protestants will have fled there, they will have pretty god contacts, although there is a good chance the people fleeing the Netherlands will take their business with them. Anyway, the Netherlands will be relatively rich, but not inovative and the southern half will probably end up French and the northern half will become part of some German nation or become a French vasal or both.

Whp will go for Indonesia? Probably Portugal or maybe England. I could see France do it. Without a Dutch Republic as a counter for France, I think France will be able to gain their "natural" borders and focus more on colonials expandsion.