WI: The Great War starts around 1904 or 1905?

Gan

Banned
What if an event triggers the Great War in Europe roughly a decade earlier? Is it possible?

Which side would win(assuming it's still Britain, France, & Russia vs Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy) in this timeline? Is US involvement still likely? If so, how would Roosevelt handle the War?

What would be the long-term butterflies of the war starting this much sooner?
 
Are there still tensions between Russia and Japan? Because that could complicate the picture a lot.
 

Gan

Banned
Are there still tensions between Russia and Japan? Because that could complicate the picture a lot.

8 February 1904 – 5 September 1905

If the Great War does happen while that's going on, how would that affect alliances?
 
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8 February 1904 – 5 September 1905

If the Great War does happen while that's going on, how would that affect alliances?

Russia can't effectively support France with that going on, France backs down, and war is averted. Plus, Anglo-Japanese alliance makes the former more liable to sit out a war between the Entente and the Triple Alliance. Also, Italy and Austria had somewhat better relations before 1908. Long story short, the OTL WWI goes out the window.
 

Deleted member 83898

How would this hypothetical WW1 begin?

Barring Russia being preoccupied with matters in Asia, the Entente Cordiale was only signed in April of 1904, and the Schlieffen Plan wasn't drawn up until 1905. (not sure of the month)

So I guess the CPs have that going for them.

On the other hand, the Haber-Bosch process has not been perfected, so if Britain does enter the war (which assumes a late 1905 start to the war with the Entente Cordiale and Schlieffen Plan both being in place) then the CPs might be screwed.

Also, dreadnoughts are not around yet.
 
absent

Don't forget that there are no airplanes for recce/photo missions. So the germans have a better chance to defeat the French armies in detail.
 
How would this hypothetical WW1 begin?

In order to keep things similar to history ... how about an assassination in Austria-Hungary?

May 1905 saw Franz Joseph I. visiting a number of cities, including Mostar. A-H security believed an assassination attempt was going to take place, but the Emperor went anyway and nothing happened. IIRC, something similar happened to the assassin that happened in Sarajevo 9 years later. There was, indeed, an assassin at the Mostar train station and he was close enough to actually take the shot, but he ultimately chickened out and did nothing.

Of course, assassinating the heir to the crown and the reigning Emperor of a Great Power are different things, but that's one option I can think of. Plus, with Russia distracted, the Austrians (even if led by Franz Ferdinand who was opposed to war) might see an opportunity to flex their muscles, smack around their neighbours and, above all, defend the honour of their nation (which demands action).
 
I doubt England would be Eager to join the side Russia in in. Entente Cordiale is settleing Colonial matters betwee France and Britain, Teh Grate Game (i.e. Russian-British differing interest) is still hot.

If Russia goes to war in teh West so soon after the defeat in teh west a Revolution is likely to break out (it did OTL) and this time it might get worse for them.

in Addition in 1905 there was nor Russian fleet, the French one was - well strangely composed - with Britain out and Germany being able to import freely - haber Bosch is not important. In the Balkans we have a totally ifferent Situation.

Serbia is still not fully outside Austrais sphere (Relations had become worse but before the pig war were not too bad) and ist much smaller. The OE is still a factor on the Balkans. Romania is still ruled by ist Germanophile king. Italy even might eye the French posessions with more desire than Trentino (well that one is probably EVER in Italys eye, but in the wake of a Great war a Modus vivendi with A-H might be found.

Russias amry is in a much worse Situation than 1914, Austrias also but less so. France is in a betetr situattion (Plan XV, defensive) while Germany is as it ever was - probably the BEst army on the continent at the time ;))

The Schlieffenplan as we know it was developed from 1891 - with depending on the Situation sometime more or less Forces in the East. in 1903 the planning was reversed (by Schlieffen ) as he assumed at that Point of time that it would be impossible to break through the French Wall de Fer (50% Forces east 50% west and attack on russia with help of Austrian army)

IN December 1905 when Schlieffen resigned he presented what we know as Schlieffenplan. The "Ostplan" - existing at least from the 1880s was only abandoned fully in 1913)
 
Depending on the start date Russia is either being humiliated by Japan or is in the middle of a revolution. Whatever happens, Russia stays out of the war. The UK at this tine is also probably going to stay out, so you'll most likely get the Second Franco-Prussian War than an earlier WWI in this period.
 
Google Dogger Bank Incident.

While at war with Japan, Russia attacked British fishing ships that it mistook for Japanese torpedo boats (yes, in the North Sea...).

France is allied with Russia. However, France could claim that their alliance was defensive and Russia was the offender.

Alternatively, France could DoW Japan in support of Russia. Japan's alliance with Britain indicated that Britain would come to Japan's help if a second nation attacked (second nation widely understood to be France by both parties).

Germany would have the perfect opportunity to DoW Russia and France that it was aiming to cause in the Moroccan crisis OTL. But the Kaiser's diplomacy is so inept you never know. Don't remember if the Schlieffen Plan was a thing yet.

Austria might stay neutral even if Germany joins, but Italy, not having Libya yet, might DoW France if it has Britain's backing to get Tunis. I think Fight and be Right had an Anglo-Italian war against France around this time. Might be useful to google who was PM of Italy then and what countries he favored.

Iran is a basket case at this time and could be used to open a third front. Alternatively (or simultaneously) the Ottomans could be convinced to DoW Russia to get their territories in the Caucasus back. In that case, you have most certainly Serbia, Montenegro and Bulgaria entering the war against the Ottomans (Montenegro was hilariously already at war with Japan) but Greece would stay out becausr it is completely exposed to the Anglo-Italians.
 
Google Dogger Bank Incident.

While at war with Japan, Russia attacked British fishing ships that it mistook for Japanese torpedo boats (yes, in the North Sea...).

France is allied with Russia. However, France could claim that their alliance was defensive and Russia was the offender.

Alternatively, France could DoW Japan in support of Russia. Japan's alliance with Britain indicated that Britain would come to Japan's help if a second nation attacked (second nation widely understood to be France by both parties).

Germany would have the perfect opportunity to DoW Russia and France that it was aiming to cause in the Moroccan crisis OTL. But the Kaiser's diplomacy is so inept you never know. Don't remember if the Schlieffen Plan was a thing yet.

Austria might stay neutral even if Germany joins, but Italy, not having Libya yet, might DoW France if it has Britain's backing to get Tunis. I think Fight and be Right had an Anglo-Italian war against France around this time. Might be useful to google who was PM of Italy then and what countries he favored.

Iran is a basket case at this time and could be used to open a third front. Alternatively (or simultaneously) the Ottomans could be convinced to DoW Russia to get their territories in the Caucasus back. In that case, you have most certainly Serbia, Montenegro and Bulgaria entering the war against the Ottomans (Montenegro was hilariously already at war with Japan) but Greece would stay out becausr it is completely exposed to the Anglo-Italians.

while it would make for a cool story i dont think France would be stupid enough to DOW Japan.

I think if that happens then the UK jump on France and Germany would probably decide to jump in on France and Russia at the same time as well.

Short term its the worst possible thing for France (and Russia)
Long term its the worst possible for UK - because Germany will end up with the continent
 
I doubt England would be Eager to join the side Russia in in.

It seems quite unlikely in the 1904-05 timeframe.

A war in this time period is almost certainly going to be a strictly continental war. Britain remaining neutral may have interesting knock-on effects on what Italy and the Ottoman Empire decide to do.

There's actually an excellent timeline underway looking at one possible Great War breaking out in early 1906, Es Geloybte Aretz - a Germanwank. There are a few twists, due to its 1888 point of departure - Britain and France remain neutral, but Sweden, the Netherlands, China and the Ottomans do not. The timeline is not finished, but the war is going badly for the Russians - which, I expect, would be true of almost any great war involving Russia in this time period. The Russian army and its logistics were a trainwreck.
 
Indeed, that's the weakest part. France knew it could not antagonize Germany and the UK at the same time, so there would have to be some incident or chain of incidents that force them in that situation.
 
If you put Germany up against a navally superior opponent before the Haber Process is invented and the relevant infrastructure created for it so that they can make nitrates without importing them, they're in for a world of hurt.

That said, others have raised the very valid point that, contrary to stereotype, in the real world there was not a chain of rigid unbreakable alliances that sprang in 1914 like tripwires; there was a very fluid diplomatic situation where great powers' relations with each other were vastly more complicated than "on your side" vs "not on your side". Most of the powers that went to war in 1914 were not obliged to do so by firm commitments, they were not monolithic blocs but rather had different decision-makers who had different ideas of what lay in the national interest, and those men's reasoning was much more complicated than popular caricatures (e.g. the silly old myth that British foreign policy is a simple case of selecting the most powerful country on the Continent and deciding to make it an enemy) would suggest. The July Crisis gave us a snapshot of the ever-shifting picture of European diplomatic relations, not a complete picture. Some things genuinely were unshakable by that stage but, of all the relations between the European great powers, Franco-German enmity, Austro-Russian enmity and Russo-Ottoman enmity are the only things I can't think of any way to get rid of in that timeframe. So there's no guarantee whatsoever that we'll even have a First World War with the same sides as OTL's.

That said, if we somehow did end up with a First World War with the same sides as OTL even just a few years before its OTL outbreak, it certainly wouldn't be long, and the Germans certainly wouldn't be on the winning side. Supplying war may bore people but it's usually more important than the flashy "but what if X side won Y battle because of Z amazing brilliant general?" question. At risk of stating the totally obvious, it's rather tricky to conduct a war without explosives.
 

jahenders

Banned
You could potentially have something like an Austrian assassination in 1904-5 that would cause Austria to threaten Serbia.

Russia, being involved with Japan might offer moral support but is far less inclined to offer unlimited support.

Serbia might cave to Austrian demands, but if it doesn't then Austria attacks.

So, you might have an Austro-Serbian war in 1904-5, but it might not go any further than that.

As a separate measure, you could potentially have some issue precipitate a Franco-German war in the same timeframe, but it would probably be a separate event.
Russia won't be involved (as alliances with French weren't as solid and they're still tied up with Japan).
Italy won't attack Austria when Austria only has Serbia to deal with and might even join Germany if they're doing well against France. Italy might just use the time for some adventures in Africa.

The German attack won't be the Schleiffen Plan per se (since it's not fully developed). It might similarly involve invading neutrals, but might not.
If Germany doesn't invade neutrals, England stays out or only offers limited support to France.
Germany defeats France but it's harder than either 1870 or 1940. They negotiate a peace in 1905-06 with minor French losses.

The Russians still face the 1905 revolution, but resolve it as IOTL, staying semi-stable for a few more years.

Turkey sits everything except some actions in the Middle East.

Roosevelt might be involved in brokering both the Austro-Serbian AND the Russo-Japanese peace.
 

tenthring

Banned
Anyone who goes to war with the UK on the other wise had to win within six months, otherwise they run out of nitrates. However, it is possible to construct a situation where someone wins within six months.
 
First Morroccan Crisis 1905

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Moroccan_Crisis

The French IOTL cancelled all military leave, the Germans threatened an alliance with Turkey

In this crisis there is no particular reason for Russia to join in and they are at war with apan already.

Austria has no particular reason to go to war either.

Germany still uses the Schlieffen Plan and invades Belgium which likely drags Britain into the war. At this point however there have been no stff talks between Britain and France which makes the BEF deployment to France more problematic and likely delayed.

With Germany able to deploy stronger forces in the West and a delayed British response he Germans could well win this one
 
Some things genuinely were unshakable by that stage but, of all the relations between the European great powers, Franco-German enmity, Austro-Russian enmity and Russo-Ottoman enmity are the only things I can't think of any way to get rid of in that timeframe.

And even Austro-Russian enmity was not a given thing - with a better handling of some things the Relations would be much better (the negotiations before the annexation crisis of 1908 were more a wishful thinking on both sides than really understanding what the other side wants - if done with more thought both sides could have come out better - and with better Relations)

France vs Germany (more French revanchism than German Ambition) and russian expansionism vs the OE are things that Need an earlier POD though, so the SHOULD be a given in the timeframe ;)
 
Montenegro was hilariously already at war with Japan.

Even more hilarious was the fact that that Montenegro and Japan were formally at war until 2006.

And even Austro-Russian enmity was not a given thing - with a better handling of some things the Relations would be much better (the negotiations before the annexation crisis of 1908 were more a wishful thinking on both sides than really understanding what the other side wants - if done with more thought both sides could have come out better - and with better Relations)

France vs Germany (more French revanchism than German Ambition) and russian expansionism vs the OE are things that Need an earlier POD though, so the SHOULD be a given in the timeframe ;)

It should be noted that there was a period of normalisation between France and Germany in the closing decade of the 19th century. IIRC it was the Anglo-French Entente that prevented the Alsace-Lorraine issue from falling into irrelevance in the French political scene.

As for Russo-Ottoman relations... yeah, I don't think Russia would ever give up on its designs on the Balkans and the Bosphor-Dardanelles in this time frame. One way or another the Ottoman Empire is going to fall IMO.
 
Even more hilarious was the fact that that Montenegro and Japan were formally at war until 2006.



It should be noted that there was a period of normalisation between France and Germany in the closing decade of the 19th century. IIRC it was the Anglo-French Entente that prevented the Alsace-Lorraine issue from falling into irrelevance in the French political scene.

As for Russo-Ottoman relations... yeah, I don't think Russia would ever give up on its designs on the Balkans and the Bosphor-Dardanelles in this time frame. One way or another the Ottoman Empire is going to fall IMO.

Arguably it was th 1905 Morroccan Crisis that ruined the chances of an improved relatonship between France and Russia
 
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