What if Spain and Portugal both joined the Second World War around the same time Italy joined the effort. Of course they would be on the side of Germany. How does this effect the over all war effort of the Axis? And the allies later on in the war?
WI: Spain and Portugal join WWII?
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Salazar hated Nazism in general and Hitler in particular, and Portugal has that "longest running treaty" thing going on with England. Why would he enter the war on the Axis side?
I did not know that he hated Hitler. I just thought he didn't see himself as a "Fascist", rather than just a dictator looking out for Portugal. So..... Potential expansion of Portuguese power? More Colonies in Africa?
Fascism is used at times all too often as a catch all for ALL far-right. But Franco was a different thing than Hitler, and Salazar as well.
For the hiberian peninsula dictators, it was a more or harsh conservatism with deeply religious roots and a strongmen army side. Nationalist but in a somewhat different way.
The relations between the Duce and the Church where complex and ambivalent, and if you read well between lines, Hiltler and the Nazis eitheir tried to manipulate the clerical trends, ignored the churches, or oppressed religious guys who opposed nazis.
LordKalvert
Banned
Salazar may have joined, especially if Spain does as well, out of fear of the Nazis and the conclusion that the British have no hope on their own.
The immediate effect would be to close the Mediterranean Sea to the British as German aircraft would have no trouble shutting down the Straits of Gibralter. Egypt and Malta would quickly fall and the Italian fleet would pose a serious threat of breaking out into the Atlantic greatly enhancing the German commerce campaign. Bases in Spain and Portugal would also aid the UBoat effort as the Germans would have easy access to the open seas
Enough to defeat Britain? Probably not but an allied invasion of North Africa and Italy become impossible so Italy will stay in much longer
As with all WWII threads, the US entry and Abomb will eventually settle matters in the Allies favor
The immediate effect would be to close the Mediterranean Sea to the British as German aircraft would have no trouble shutting down the Straits of Gibralter. Egypt and Malta would quickly fall and the Italian fleet would pose a serious threat of breaking out into the Atlantic greatly enhancing the German commerce campaign. Bases in Spain and Portugal would also aid the UBoat effort as the Germans would have easy access to the open seas
Enough to defeat Britain? Probably not but an allied invasion of North Africa and Italy become impossible so Italy will stay in much longer
As with all WWII threads, the US entry and Abomb will eventually settle matters in the Allies favor
This would also give the Axis many more ports, ship yards and dry docks on the Atlantic. Where before they only had one real ship yard in Brittany.
The usual problem to label fascists beyond the original ones (the italians) lies in the double problem is the fuzzy ideological nature of fascism, itself reluctant to define its positions clearly beyond some basic points, because its appeal was emotional rather than rational, confrontational in its most literal sense, rather than open to debate etc) and because the mutual influences (and alliances) between them and other far-right movements dating from the late 19th century. Anyway, there is a general trend in the time to reinvent the tradition in a very agressive and revolutionary way. Of course they talked about national revolutions, awakenings etc and not in the same terms than me. But if there is something common place between the regimes between them is the idea of restoring the national glory (of course unfairly lost due to foreign and internal conspirations of decadent liberals and baby eating reds) and to save and realize the national essences, but through o total rebuild of the now all-powerful state. Thus the Estado Novo (New State) in Portugal or the appeals to the new Spain by francoist propaganda. In short, they were not like Hitler, but they weren't either 'traditional" old school dictators. In fact (another misconception I have seen ither times) they were a phenomenom without precedents in Iberia before the 20th century. You have the same bizarre mix of old symbols or refferences and new and often futurist iconography (clear example is the architecture)
That said, it's hard to get Portugal in the war, and less in the german side. They have too strong links with the UK, so unless it's an existential matter they won't join the war (not much to win, either) Spain problems regarding its participation in the war are known, and a different attitude from the german side would be necessary, if not forcefully enough. But at leasl ket's dispell the myth of Franco's clever trick to enerve Hitler and avoid the war, because it was a but different.
Also, your last paragraph could also be applied to Franco, even if he was a zealous catholic
Garrison
Donor
Another thread ducking the hard question; how does Germany get Spain to join the Axis? No one ever seems able to come up with a convincing POD. Fact is Franco knew Spain could be torn apart if he entered the war, they would lose the Canary Islands amongst other territory and he thought the Azis would lose the war once the US intervened. Unlike his Axis counterparts Franco died peacefully in bed in 1975 still ruler of his country...
In a discurse before the heads of Falange in 1943 he said very clearly that the americans wouldn't win the war because the ocean or something likenthat. I should have to check. But hit doesn't seem the kind of assertion made by somebody sure of an Axis defeat.
1. Spain & Portugal depended on grain imports from north & south America to feed their urban populations. Declare war on Britain and grain imports fall off due to the blockade and US sympathy with Britain. One of the demands Franco made which Hitler could not fulfill was a guarantee of sufficent grain from Europe to make up for lost imports from the Americas.
2. Spain & Portugal depended on oil imported from north America for their petroleum. Repeat #1
3. Spain still had a sizable population of leftist sympathizers. While the Republican leaders and surviving senior leaders of the socialists, communists, liberals had fled Spain the mass of supporters remained and were fairly miserable under Francos rule. This would be fertile ground for the British SOE. A ready made underground.
4. The conservative right of Spain or Portugal was not monolithic. Franco rode herd on a uneasy coalition of right and center parties. Not all favored the baggage that would go along with a Spainish DoW.
5. Salazar had zero interest in a association with Germany. During 1941 he meet regularly with British diplomats to discuss support from the British were German armies to reach Portugal. Among other things Salazar intended to move his government to the Azores & thence to Africa if necessary.
2. Spain & Portugal depended on oil imported from north America for their petroleum. Repeat #1
3. Spain still had a sizable population of leftist sympathizers. While the Republican leaders and surviving senior leaders of the socialists, communists, liberals had fled Spain the mass of supporters remained and were fairly miserable under Francos rule. This would be fertile ground for the British SOE. A ready made underground.
4. The conservative right of Spain or Portugal was not monolithic. Franco rode herd on a uneasy coalition of right and center parties. Not all favored the baggage that would go along with a Spainish DoW.
5. Salazar had zero interest in a association with Germany. During 1941 he meet regularly with British diplomats to discuss support from the British were German armies to reach Portugal. Among other things Salazar intended to move his government to the Azores & thence to Africa if necessary.
6. If either country joined the Axis, they'd immediately lose all their overseas territories. That's a BIG thing for Portugal, and pretty big for Spain.
It's entirely possible that once Gibraltar fell, which it inevitably would, and the British were practically locked out of the Mediterranean, the Axis could probably have advanced into the Middle East after taking Egypt. It all butterflies from then on, because if you give Hitler access to Middle Eastern oil, he doesn't need to focus so much of his forces on the Caucasus, and perhaps concentrates enough extra forces on Stalingrad to win. Then Stalin goes into a rage over the loss of his namesake city, purges his military of defeatists that he blames for the loss, and this trashes the Red Army allowing for the defeat and annexation of the entire Soviet Union. Then Germany invades Alaska through its new Siberian territories, and... well, perhaps this particular butterfly has run its course.
damm the Italians...
could actualy WWII result could be better if Italian is their enemy?
LordKalvert
Banned
Franco played his cards well. There is only one real reason that would convince Franco to join the war and that is if he felt that it was obvious that Britain was going down. In such a scenario, the wise course would be to bet on the winning side
It is, after all the calculation of the Italians- after all, they only join after Paris had been taken.
The question than becomes how to convince Franco that the British were going down.
Portugal depends on Spain- if Spain joins than the Portugese will join out of fear of the Spanish army
So the real question becomes- what does Hitler need to do to convince the Spanish that Britain is doomed and it might actually have to be so convincing as to make Spanish entrance moot
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No evacuation of Dunkirk might be enough, I think. However that will have its own butterflies, including (perhaps) Britain seeking a cease fire as has often been suggested on here.
Well back then Franco was very Spanish in letting his mouth work before his brain did it. I remember an interesting fragment from Preston's Franco biography about how in 1942 or so, Franco got so over-excited in as public speech that he almost declared war on the Allies. Franco was always, like the Spanish most traditionalist elements in WWI and later, very Germanophile.
Early in WWI some French general was asked about the consequences of Italy joining the war on one side or another. His response was: If the join us we will have to send ten divisions to prop them up, if they fight us we will have to deploy ten divisions to fight them. So there is little differnence.
Now a nuetral Italy is a very different thing, and there are several existing threads on that one.