Caporetto more decisive wi?

Alternate History Question:

What would be the consequences if Germany and Austria had knocked Italy out of the War in 1917, following the Caporetto Offensive? Suppose that Germany had decided it was a necessary move to counter the French who began moving divisions to the south eastern front to help the Italians, and so stripped a relatively few number of troops (30 or 40 thousand will not make that much difference on the Eastern Front, where the Germans are already dominant) to augment the forces originally assigned. After 11 battles of the Isonzo which had failed to produce the promised victory, the War was very unpopular in Rome, and the Austro - German victory in otl caused a great deal of alarm.

If the Italians are unable to withdraw in good order from Veneto and end up losing a good part of the forces they have deployed, would this collapse the government and/or induce Rome to make peace?

If so, what happens if the Entente still wins the War, as per OTL?
What happens if the CP wins, in true AH fashion?

Any takers?

Austria offers a reasonable set of terms to Italy

More Austrian troops available for the Western Front

Maybe Paris falls 1918?

Austria imposes heavy terms on Italy. At this point though, all of Austria's enemies have been defeated- Russia, Italy, Serbia. She would have nothing to gain by prolonging the war and everything to gain by ending it. Austria should have become very afraid of growing German might and had no real quarrels with France of Britain.

The best play for Austria would therefore be to tell the Germans that the time for peace had come and that they would seek a separate peace with the Western Allies based on status quo ante.

These terms would almost certainly be accepted. The Germans might be furious but an Austrian defection would be the end of the Reich- something the Austrians shouldn't mind anyway as Germany was becoming too dominant and without France or Britain to help them check the Germans, the Austrians were doomed.

Such a move would also mean the end of Turkish and Bulgarian efforts as well

LordKalvert said:

Austria imposes heavy terms on Italy. At this point though, all of Austria's enemies have been defeated- Russia, Italy, Serbia. She would have nothing to gain by prolonging the war and everything to gain by ending it. Austria should have become very afraid of growing German might and had no real quarrels with France of Britain.

The best play for Austria would therefore be to tell the Germans that the time for peace had come and that they would seek a separate peace with the Western Allies based on status quo ante.

These terms would almost certainly be accepted. The Germans might be furious but an Austrian defection would be the end of the Reich- something the Austrians shouldn't mind anyway as Germany was becoming too dominant and without France or Britain to help them check the Germans, the Austrians were doomed.

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What you are suggesting would be very unwise for AH. They need German troops or at least the threat of German troops to hold down the former Russian and Italian territories to ensure a peace on their terms. Blackmailing their strongest ally Germany is not in their interest.
AH may have had no quarrel with Britain or France but that did not stop the latter two(!) from declaring war upon AH.

Anyway, the victory would be too late to demobilize units for farming and that means any freed up units would either be used for internal security or demobilised at some point in 1918. Specialized units and artillery would definitely go to the Western Front.
Out of roughly 60 divisions AH had in Italy in 1918 at the Battle of Vittorio Veneto maybe 30 could go on the Western Front to relieve German units and free them for offensive actions. Perhaps 15-20 additional German divisions could be used for the 1918 offensives together with AH artillery.

Would that make a difference in 1918? Perhaps take Amiens?


One possible effect for Italy would be more social unrest and even a widespread socialist uprising seems like a plausible outcome.

Actually it is not as simple as that, I think. This is precisely what Kaiser Karl had attempted to do via the so - called "Sixtus Affair" - however, this was unfortunately doomed. Not because of Austrian intransigence to granting territorial concessions (in fact, Karl was more than willing to grant Galicia to an independent Poland), but because of German hostility and French duplicity. After his accession to the Throne, Karl had attempted numerous times to impress upon Wilhelm II the growing urgency for the Central Powers to seek reasonable terms with the Entente. Karl insisted on this point repeatedly at several meetings with Wilhelm II. Indeed, after the last time the two Emperors met to discuss the matter, Wilhelm was heard to remark: "who does that young man think he is?!" With grandiose plans in the works for a Russia that was rapidly approaching total collapse, there was no desire at all to consider an honorable peace.

This is what precipitated Karl's ambitious move to seek a separate peace for Austria through his brother - in - law Prince Sixtus of Bourbon Parma. He was defeated in his efforts though partly by his Foreign Minister Count Ottokar von Czernin who did not want a separate peace, and by the French revealing the contents of the Emperor's correspondence. This incensed the Germans so much there was fear that the Germans might actually occupy Vienna.

Question: if the Austro - German armies succeed in not only crossing the Piave but grabbing Venice, would this be enough to effectively end the war in Italy? It is after all, one of the most important cities in northern Italy. Or, what if Milan is taken?

Franz Josef II said:

Question: if the Austro - German armies succeed in not only crossing the Piave but grabbing Venice, would this be enough to effectively end the war in Italy? It is after all, one of the most important cities in northern Italy. Or, what if Milan is taken?

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No, the Italian brass expected the Austrian to cross the Piave and take Venice the OTL resistance was a surprise for everyone them included and frankly OTL advance was the limit of the austrian logistic line so i doubt that even in case of victory they can go further.
Regarding term, well the CP basically offered Italy a white peace in OTL after caporetto bu this was refused and was decided to keep fight so i doubt that here will be different

That is certainly true, in otl there is realistically no way Austria could have crossed the Piave, unless she had been able to bring a reasonable force of men and material from the Russian front. However, as I mentioned at the beginning, the premise I posted here is what if Germany tags on more troops than she did historically. If the Germans decide that Italy has to be dealt with, I can see them detaching a small yet effective number of troops and equipment.

I believe that the OTL sucess of Caporetto was so great that the CPs were really surprised by it, never planned beyond the initial goals and therefor were unable to exploit the victory. (they held bridgeheads over the Piave, but retreated)

I think to make it a more decisive victory a second attack at the same time as the original attack down to lake Garda Verona might have "done the trick".

Franz Josef II said:

That is certainly true, in otl there is realistically no way Austria could have crossed the Piave, unless she had been able to bring a reasonable force of men and material from the Russian front. However, as I mentioned at the beginning, the premise I posted here is what if Germany tags on more troops than she did historically. If the Germans decide that Italy has to be dealt with, I can see them detaching a small yet effective number of troops and equipment.

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Italy is a secondary front and any troop send there mean two things:

- Less troops for France aka the real impotant place
- more logistical strain due to the presence and the need to supply more men (no the soldiers will not be capable of living of the land, Veneto at the time was very poor and the inhabitans run away with everything they can while the army burn the rest)

This is a classic scenario that 's has been discussed already a lot of time.
Edit: and no, in OTL there were no good retreat of the troops from Veneto, it was a route and the Italian army lost a big deal of men and material, unfortunely for the CP it not made the italian demand peace but instead have the opposite effect, making the war be seen as a necessity as the 'barbarians were at the gate'; basically political opposition at the war stopped overnight.
Ironically, if the Caporetto offensive failed the internal situation will become more tense and if Karl had done a proposal capable of at least save the face of the italian goverment it will be probably been accepted for fear of a revolution.