WI: Franz Ferdinand had lived?
The age old question. What would have happened if the Archduke survived?
Bonus points for detail.
The age old question. What would have happened if the Archduke survived?
Bonus points for detail.
WI: Franz Ferdinand had lived?
- Thread starter Ol'GarryBoldwater
- Start date
Even if he doesn't die after being shot, I'd assume A-H is still pretty damn infuriated at the assassination attempt. I doubt much changes.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Except Franz Ferdinand, being a pretty big part of the peace faction, will have more to say on the matter.
Just to clarify I mean that there was no assassination attempt in the first place.
Evading the assassination attempt would be quite easy actually.
From what I understand he only encountered the assassin while going to visit the victims of a previous assassination attempt earlier, if you make so he returns home immediately, at most they'll be pissed someone tried to kill him but not enough to declare a war since they won't be able to confirm it was carried out by Serbian nationals as the previous assassin was beaten to death by members of the crowd.
From what I understand he only encountered the assassin while going to visit the victims of a previous assassination attempt earlier, if you make so he returns home immediately, at most they'll be pissed someone tried to kill him but not enough to declare a war since they won't be able to confirm it was carried out by Serbian nationals as the previous assassin was beaten to death by members of the crowd.
Not quite. The previous assassin was captured alive by the police. Though I presume in this scenario he wouldn't actually do anything, either.
And all of them were Austro-Hungarian citizens.
LordKalvert
Banned
Well assuming that there was no assissination attempt, then peace continues for quite a while. It was the emotional reaction to the situation that lead to the Kaiser giving Austria a blank check.
FJ would continue his idiotic policies both at home and abroad, the monarchy's diplomatic position would become more and more isolated when he died in 1916
Hard to say what happens when FF finally gets the throne. He wanted peace and he wanted reconciliation with Russia but by then Austria's position would be well nigh impossible:
The Serbs would have grown much stronger as they digested their gains from the Balkan Wars. Italy would have recovered a lot from the Ottoman war and Romania, following King Carol's death in 1914, would have drifted even further into the Russian camp
His hopes of reconciliation with Russia would be difficult to achieve. Russia would have been quite the dominant power and there wouldn't be much left for Austria to offer Russia. Other than help in a war on Japan.
Don't laugh on that one. Nicholas could easily have been planning one. The Russian Navy was again becoming quite powerful. It had Eleven major capital ships on the blocks that would have been finished. Even allowing for the ones trapped in the Black Sea, Russia would once again be a naval power.
The Trans Siberian would have been double tracked allowing fifty trains a day into the theater versus ten in the last war. Pretty big improvement
FJ would continue his idiotic policies both at home and abroad, the monarchy's diplomatic position would become more and more isolated when he died in 1916
Hard to say what happens when FF finally gets the throne. He wanted peace and he wanted reconciliation with Russia but by then Austria's position would be well nigh impossible:
The Serbs would have grown much stronger as they digested their gains from the Balkan Wars. Italy would have recovered a lot from the Ottoman war and Romania, following King Carol's death in 1914, would have drifted even further into the Russian camp
His hopes of reconciliation with Russia would be difficult to achieve. Russia would have been quite the dominant power and there wouldn't be much left for Austria to offer Russia. Other than help in a war on Japan.
Don't laugh on that one. Nicholas could easily have been planning one. The Russian Navy was again becoming quite powerful. It had Eleven major capital ships on the blocks that would have been finished. Even allowing for the ones trapped in the Black Sea, Russia would once again be a naval power.
The Trans Siberian would have been double tracked allowing fifty trains a day into the theater versus ten in the last war. Pretty big improvement
While there are many potential flashpoints, it's entirely possible that without the assassination, and without something else popping up, that you would have seen a sort of detente between Germany and Britain, if only in the sense that both had reason to fear a modernising Tsarist Russia.
LordKalvert
Banned
Or would a link up of Germany and Russia be more likely? From a German point of view, the British don't have much to offer. Sea control becomes important only in a long war and by 1917 the "Russians will be in Berlin before we are in Paris"- at least that was the Kaiser's thought
So, an alliance with England offers Germany nothing. Peace with Russia would be the better solution. That would require uniting with the Tsar in Asia- a reorintation of Russian policy back to its pre Japanese War days. Pushing them into China or Persia
This forgets the French though, Britain being on Germany's side in a war would doom the French thanks to RN blockade, and Germany probably could knock out the French before turning on the Russians.
What does Germany have to offer Russia as an ally, anyways? They're at odds over Austria-Hungary and eventually would be over Poland too.